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Bitcoin Roadmap 2025It's been a while since I did a Bitcoin TA; I've been focusing on Chainlink mostly these days. Still, I spent the last few days going over everything to come to this conclusion as the most probable outcome next two years . There's a high chance we won't see an all-time high until late 2024. Like always, it's never easy to predict what Bitcoin is going to do next. You would think that this last cycle, we would have some sort of clear top and clear bottom so we could confidently calculate the next cycle top and bottom. But, in true Bitcoin fashion, we get a mixed bag. Last Cycle First time in history, Bitcoin had a double top for a cycle: - April 2021 - Psychological Top - November 2021 - Technical Top The entire market topped out in April 2021; a few coins came in with higher highs later that year. Something that is crystal clear is that Bitcoin took exactly the same amount of time to go from cycle low to cycle top (1064 days). It also took the same time to get from cycle low exactly 364 days; it was that easy, guys. So, this is where we arrive at the first cycle top date: October 2025. 1064 days from the cycle low in November 2022 would give you that date. The next date for a cycle top is August 2025, giving us the cycle top range from August to October 2025. A while back, I published a TA on Bitcoin's volume on a macro scale. I found very interesting patterns and dates looking into the volume. As you can see from this updated picture, every time Bitcoin has a bullish cross on volume, it takes 670 days to top. We just had the bullish cross in October this year, so 670 days from the cross would be August 2025. Whenever Bitcoin breaks the 1/2 Gann, it takes about 924 days till the top. This cycle, we broke the 1/2 Gann in March 2023, so 924 days from March 2023 puts you at September 2025.https://www.tradingview.com/x/Wp7wYyMP/ It takes about 1400 days from cycle top to top; 1400 days from the November 2021 top would be October 2025. This insanely powerful time sequence that predicted major Bitcoin events has failed this year for me for the first time; the next two dates are July 2024 and, you guessed it, September 2025. If you calculate the time when the Gaussian channel turns green to the cycle top and calculate the average, you get 750 days. July 23rd, 2023, we Gaussian turned green; 750 days from that date puts you in the last week of August 2025, basically September 2025. As you can see, the month September 2025 has a very high chance of being the month Bitcoin has its cycle high, and that would put Bitcoin, according to this model, at 175k. ### The 2024 Playbook The most likely scenario is one big flush out next year. The Satoshi roundtable most likely is just going to do the classic 50% pullback into the CME gap, right? Pre-Halving pullback is always deep and ranges from 40-50%! Well, why would they change their playbook? If it works every goddamn time, emotion gets the best of most of the traders and investors like every cycle. This is how I think it's going to play out. Bitcoin rallies to 0.5-0.618 Fib 40-48k till Mid-December to mid-January 2023 at 48k; Bitcoin ETF gets approved, BULLISH NEWS floods the news and internet. www.coindesk.com Analysts at Bloomberg predict that if a spot bitcoin ETF is not approved in this period, there’s still a 90% chance for approval by Jan. 10." It is at this point where Bitcoin (40-48k) will reverse and go down to close the CME GAP at 20k and also creating the macro Bitcoin double bottom. It won't be easy to get Bitcoin down to that level, so "FLOOD BEARISH NEWS" is on the table. War, COVID, bank bankruptcies, new Bitcoin laws, new Bitcoin taxes - choose your weapon! When Bitcoin hits that 20k, that's when you load up! You might think there is no way it's that easy - a 50% pullback to the CME GAP. But tell me if it works every time, why change or stop doing it? The only comment I would like to make out of this CME gap is that it's the only time in history Bitcoin has closed and opened a gap in the same weekend. I could be wrong, but it seems to be so; if you do find another time, share it below. So there you have it; will it play out like this? Who knows. One thing for sure is this rally won't last very long now. Conclusion - Rally to 40-48k: December 2023 - January 2024 - ETF approval: January 2024 - Reversal to 20k CME GAP by Halving (April 2024) - Bull Market starts: September to November 2024 - Cycle Top: September 2025 to October 2025
BNC:BLXLong
by Sporia
3
BTC new Elliot Wave 1 thru 5 market has started!I have recently published an idea that we could be in wave B of a ABC correction, where the C wave would have a very violent downtrend, anywhere from 11k to 3k for BTC final wave. But looking closer at the charts and going back to the books, it has come to my attention that, a B wave on a ABC pattern, can too go above the wave A initial, or top of wave 5! To recognize a wave C we need to look for that 1,2,3,4,5 down pattern. That is exactly what we had with something that began looking like a double top, but it was actually correction waves A and B. So after wave B went above the prior top, wave C had a 1 thru 5 pattern. I do believe we are now part of wave 3 minor, of this major wave 1 in a new bull cycle! My opinion is that if we get a extended 1.618 wave 3 to 75k, we will get a reverse wave 4, that its measure could indicate what the final BTC top. By measuring wave 4 retrace, and having a target of -1.236 or -1.618. Please feel free to share your own opinion. Thank you
BNC:BLXLong
by silva1320
3
Bitcoin Going to $40 Million? (Elliott Wave)This one is a bit hard to believe and I am not putting much weight on it, but I will publish it just for fun. The channeling indicates that we had wave-A ending at the peak in 2013, and wave-B is just now ending after forming a running contracting triangle. Wave-B also relates to wave-A by exactly 161.8% in time (when measured from the time of the first recorded BTC/USD transaction in Oct 2009), which is the perfect amount of time for wave-B. The internal structure of wave-B also fits nicely into a running contracting triangle with wave-a being the largest, wave-c being the 2nd largest, and wave-e being the smallest. Wave-b and wave-d also relate by 61.8%, and all the time relations fit nicely as well. The triangle channeling has a nice contracting shape with a small amount of throwover from wave-e. While from a wave perspective this chart looks pretty good, the fact that it targets around $40 million by 2027 makes it seem extremely improbable. The only way I see this as possible would be for there to be extremely high inflation in the US, leading to a collapse in the value of the dollar and a massive expansion of the supply of dollars over the next 3 years. That scenario seems very improbable to me and I do not expect this to happen so quickly, but I am publishing this chart because it is an interesting wave count. There may be an outside possibility that it actually does play out considering skyrocketing global deficits and overall terrible governance and monetary policy choices, and the potential for extremely inflationary events such as global world war. I remember when BTC was trading for ~$200 most people used to say it could never reach $10,000+ because "the market cap would be too high" and that is likely the same reason why people will think it could never reach over $10M. The idea of what people thought was "too high" completely failed in the past, and it is likely to fail again in the future as market caps will again completely surpass what people now think is "too high." Maybe it doesn't happen by 2027 but at some point crypto market caps will likely be much larger than what most people imagine is possible today.
BNC:BLXLong
by Intuit
4
BITCOIN IS GOING TO EXPLODE SOON! Hello Trading View friends! I will bring another analysis about BTC. Notice this pattern that I describe in the center of the graph: This classic widening pattern is a consolidation that occurs in the asset. See the 2014-2016 cycle. The price came from the top to the bottom and entered a widening pattern. After making 3 touches on the 3-week chart near the top, it broke through and made an extraordinary move. See the current cycle now: The price once again came from top to bottom. It produced 2 touches near the top on the 3-week chart. Will there be a strong upward breakout like the 2014-2016 cycle? In my view, there are reasons to understand that yes! And we are very close to this moment. And you, what do you think of this possibility? Leave your boost and follow me here on Trading View! To the next!
BNC:BLXLong
by GustavoCorrea1
1
Bitcoin (BTC) headed to 44k followed by 32k then back up againFair value gap suggest we have some strong liquidity magnets up above us at the 44k area. I see no reason why those cannot be easily filled given the momentum we have. Following that, I anticipate a violent shakeout back down to the 50% retracement of the the weekly fvg (cyan) at 32k before resuming course for new all time highs by or on May 2024. One interesting thing to note is that there have been 2 major weekly FVGs since the pico bottom on Nov 2022 and they have both held extremely well and gave people a very high probability setup to enter long. We will get another entry on the bull FVGs coming up.
BNC:BLXLong
by PontusTrader
The Human Weakness: We Love Pretty LiesYou can make a person believe in anything, so long as they believe that enough other people believe in it. This is one of the greatest human weaknesses, and it is exploited to no end through marketing schemes, which of course you are too smart to fall for, because you are special, just like everyone. Here is the fascinating thing, which you (if you are a Bitcoin believer) may not have realized until now (and may still be incapable of realizing even after having been told!), because marketing actually does work on you: Bitcoin IS a marketing scheme . Do you see the pattern here, or are you still not getting it? You are being shown exactly what you want to see. Bitcoin is an illusion. Look at the price chart, really look at it. Now look at the narratives. "Bitcoin cycles" look a little bit TOO PERFECT? That's because they were made to be!! The price has been controlled this entire time by a select group of marketers, who came together at the very beginning to create Bitcoin and use it as a vehicle to become disgustingly rich. If you can look at the price chart from this frame of mind, then you know exactly where we really are in the manipulation scheme map, and where we're heading. Bitcoiners may ironically recognize that all other cryptos are just marketing schemes designed to scam ignorant people, while still not recognizing that Bitcoin itself is also just a marketing scheme designed to scam ignorant people. This is how good we humans are at deceiving ourselves. Bitcoin peaked at precisely $69,000.00 on the Binance chart, and it was just to make a meme joke at your expense. The joke was this: We can literally put it RIGHT in your face, and you still CAN'T see it. This same exact pattern has gone on since the very beginning of markets, and really to the beginning of life itself. Do not be tricked by your own mind. Develop the capacity to create semi-original thoughts within your mind by thinking outside of a purely social context.
BNC:BLXShort
by bowtrix
3
Bitcoin Halving: Understanding the Impact on Market Expansion I want to share with you some interesting statistics about the price of Bitcoin during previous halvings. As you know, halving is an event when the amount of new bitcoins that are mined is reduced by half. This leads to a reduction in the supply of bitcoins in the market, which can affect their price. Let's take a look at what happened to the price of Bitcoin during previous halvings. Each halving had its stages of development, which include four phases: Bull Market, Bear Market, Accumulation, Expansion. The first halving occurred in 2012, and the price of one bitcoin was $12.2. After that halving, the price increased by 6.6 times. The second halving occurred in 2016, and the price of one bitcoin was $657. After that halving, the price increased by 12.9 times. The third halving occurred in 2020, and the price of one bitcoin was $8,500. Now we are waiting for the fourth halving, which will occur in 2024. Each of these stages is characterized by certain market trends. Bull Market: This is a period of rising asset prices. In the case of Bitcoin, it means that the price is rising. This stage can last from several months to several years. Bear Market: This is a period of falling asset prices. In the case of Bitcoin, it means that the price is falling. This stage can also last from several months to several years. Accumulation: This is a period when the price seems stable but is usually at a low level. This stage can last from several months to several years. Expansion: this is a period when the price starts to rise again after a previous accumulation period. This stage can last from several months to several years. It should be noted that not all halvings were accompanied by the same market phases, but this is a general pattern that can be observed in the Bitcoin market. Therefore, based on historical data, it can be argued that the halving affects the price of Bitcoin. However, the halving is not the only factor that affects the price. Other factors such as news, government regulations, and technical aspects can also affect the price of Bitcoin. It is also important to note that it is difficult to predict the exact developments of Bitcoin prices. Although history can give us a general idea of how the price may change in the future, the actual impact on the price depends on many factors that may turn out to be unpredictable. Therefore, for traders and investors, it is important to study the market, analyze news and technical aspects, and be prepared for unpredictable events in order to make the best decisions for their portfolio. If you liked the idea, don't forget to like and leave a comment! Best regards,
BNC:BLXLong
by CHOWTRADE
Bitcoin Elapsed Time Between Events ChartI am once again publishing this Bitcoin chart (3-day time frame) showing the entire price history, and just how closely the last two cycles matched as far as the elapsed time between events. The reason for publishing it again is that I have added another event (when a new all-time high was hit). I then measured the elapsed time from each bear market bottom to when a new all-time high was hit. Once again, I was amazed how close these measurements were to each other for the last two cycles. Obviously, this isn't a massive discovery, but I find the consistency very interesting. It will also be interesting to see if the elapsed times for this market cycle once again come close to the last two market cycles. Before continuing I want to say that Bitcoin’s very first market cycle was much shorter than the last two market cycles. So, it is possible that the fact that the last two matched so closely was just a fluke. Anyway, I will be watching closely to see how this market cycle plays out. So far, the elapsed time from the bear market bottom on November 21st, 2022, to the halving which is estimated to take place in late April 2024 (approximately 512 days) should be very close to the last two cycles. Bitcoin Market Cycle #2 vs #3 Cycle #2 - Bear market bottom to halving = 542 days Cycle #3 - Bear market bottom to halving = 513 days Cycle #4 - Bear market bottom to halving = estimated = 512 days Cycle #2 - Halving to Bull market peak = 526 days Cycle #3 - Halving to Bull market peak = 548 days Cycle #2 - Bull market peak to bear market bottom = 363 days Cycle #3 - Bull market peak to bear market bottom= 376 days Cycle #2 - Bear market bottom to a new all-time high = 723 days Cycle #3 - Bear market bottom to a new all-time high = 717 days Market cycle #2 total duration (bottom to bottom) = 1431 days Market cycle #3 total duration (bottom to bottom) = 1437 days Just for fun I want to use this data to estimate when a new all-time high might be hit for this current market cycle. What I will do is split the difference between cycle #2 (723 days) and cycle #3 (717 days) which would give me 720 days. So, if I project out 720 days from the bear market bottom on November 21st, 2022, I get the date November 9th, 2024. Obviously, I wouldn't expect it to hit the exact date but I would watch for a new all-time high sometime in October or November of next year. Of course this could all be meaningless and Bitcoin could hit a new all-time high much sooner. Like I said this is more just for fun. If we wanted to take it a step further and try to calculate when this current market cycle might peak we cold add the elapsed times from cycle #2 (Bottom to peak = 1068 days), and Cycle #3 (Bottom to peak = 1061 days). So if we split the difference we would get 1065 days. So, if I project out 1065 days from the bear market bottom on November 21st, 2022, I get the date October 20th, 2025 for the peak of this market cycle. Most likely this is all meaningless but looking at the past price history of Bitcoin the bottoms and tops do tend to occur primarily in November and December. So this might not be far off unless this market cycle is much different than the last two. As I said earlier, I will be watching to see hoe this current market cycle plays out and how it compares to the last two cycle.
BNC:BLXLong
by Bigsky_Crypto
2