BTC Bull Market and the Weekly Gaussian ChannelOne indicator to rule them all.
Every cycle ends by dipping it's toe into quicksand.
Recommend high alert for 'Wick Candle'
BLX trade ideas
WEN Bitcoin TOP? The Date You Should SELL! My first post was hidden and banned for having a link in it that I thought was helpful. Lets try again:
Bitcoin’s next all-time high isn’t a matter of if—it’s a matter of when. And if you don’t have an exit plan, history shows you could end up watching your profits disappear.
Since June 2024, I’ve been refining this model to predict WHEN BTC is most likely to peak based on historical data. Now, after months of work, I’ve cleaned up the numbers, added standard deviations, and pinpointed the key dates you need to watch. Let’s dive in.
First, every model has some assumptions, here are the key ones driving this thesis:
1) For this research, trading volume for BTC doesn't increase to high enough levels for predictive models until 2013 so I will only be looking at the data from the 2016 halving in this example. This is a curve fitting approach but I believe it is offset by the increased adoption, the fact that the supply hasn't changed, and that larger wallets are committing to hold for longer periods of time. This is still 12+ years of data points to draw conclusions from.
2) Assume a normal distribution and use a ±2 standard deviation range for references to deviations.
Lets go,
The beautiful part of the 4 year cycle is that you can see historically how similar the events are playing out due to the bitcoin halving. As a reminder- the Bitcoin halving is an event that happens about every four years, cutting the reward given to btc miners in half…hence halving. Miners are the people using powerful computers to help run and secure the Bitcoin network. This halving process is an economic design that slows the creation of new Bitcoin, making it more scarce over time, similar to how gold becomes harder to mine as more is extracted from the ground.
Once the bitcoin halving occurs, you can see that the price increases similarly over time, it also sells off similarly over time, it also indicates where the bottom of the market might be in relative terms to the next halving. History rhymes because people's investment emotions haven’t changed since the dawn of time. Greed leads to greed, fear leads to fear. The patterns from Low prices to high prices, rhymes. The pattern from one all time high to the next all time high- rhyme! So let’s use this to our advantage to increase our odds of profit and risk reduction.
Let’s look at the patterns of past cycles:
I can't seem to paste my tables here so we are going to improvise:
Halving to ATH - From BTC Halving to All Time High
2016 - 2831% in 526 days
2020 - 657% in 548 days
For 2024/2025:
Halving to ATH (-2): 506 days- Sept 8, 2025
Halving to ATH (Mean): 537 days,- Oct 10th, 2025
Halving to ATH (+2): 568 days- Nov 9th, 2025
Low to All Time High- From the cycle low price on Nov 21, 2022 to the post halving ATH
2016 - 11,960% in 1067 days
2020 - 2,089% in 1060 days
For 2024/2025:
Low to ATH (-2): 1053 days - Oct 9, 2025
Low to to ATH (Mean): 1063 days - Oct 19, 2025
Low to ATH (+2): 1073 days- Oct 29, 2025
ATH to ATH - From the cycle HIGH price on Nov 8th, 2021 to the post halving ATH
2016 - 1,579% in 1477 days
2020 - 248% in 1424 days
For 2024/2025:
ATH to ATH (-2): 1375 days Aug 14th, 2025
ATH to ATH (Mean): 1450 days- Oct 28th, 2025
ATH to ATH (+2): 1525 days - January 11, 2026
If we then take those dates and order them chronologically it can give you a window of time to focus on and dig deeper into.
Mean & SD # of Days Future Date
ATH to ATH (-2) 1375 August 14
Halving to ATH (-2) 506 Sept 8
Low to ATH (-2) 1053 Oct 9
Halving to ATH (Mean) 537 Oct 10
Low to to ATH (Mean) 1063 Oct 19
ATH to ATH (Mean) 1450 Oct 28
Low to ATH (+2) 1073 Oct 29
Halving to ATH (+2) 568 Nov 9
ATH to ATH (+2) 1525 Jan 11, 2026
When including the standard deviations of dates that far apart if can give you quite a large range- a total of 150 days! While that seems like a lot…a 4 year cycle has roughly 1461 days…. So a 10% window isn’t bad if you are coming in blind…which most of the retail investors are. Just like you did. Just like I did.
So how can we take the 150 day window and narrow it down further. Well, we can look for other similarities in the chart to give us clues of how humans have behaved in the past to give us a clue of how they might act in the future. Bitcoin's all-time highs tend to cluster between November and December:
-2013 ATH: Late November
-2017 ATH: Early December
-2021 ATH: Early November
That could be a good indicator as well for retail investors in 2025, and if it repeats (because history rhymes, and I guess that makes me Eminem with charts), we can narrow our exit window further. Realistically this is where preference and opinion start to come in.
It is my opinion that what I see most often in a bull run is that retail not only comes in late, but they are the main catalyst for price action and who we ultimately should be thanking when we are selling at high prices…to them! With that understanding I wouldn’t expect the early time deviations NOT to hold as much weight as the later. Furthermore, when looking at the data above we see a lot of confluence in October especially. With retail being reactive and not proactive, I would consider those dates as a start of the exit as opposed to the actual total exit.
However, if I was trying to get out blindly and sell all my bitcoin this year. I would simply take my total portfolio and sell 10% of it for 10 weeks starting Oct 1st, 2025 and ending December 10th, 2025. That's the concept, shift a couple weeks as you see fit. This blanket approach allows you to capture the majority of the exit window using historical data. This process is the reverse of what most people know as “dollar cost averaging”, except instead of buying each week, you are selling and taking profits each week.
Why do we need an approach to exit? Because the most common scenario we see for selling is post all-time high, and we are selling with other sellers, competing to get BTC sold, which in turns leads to lower prices and the cycle continues for a year until sellers are exhausted. So while I don’t have to figure out the exact top of the market to sell…I can capture some of it by targeting an exit window like we have here.
But what’s the real goal of selling? For me, it’s not about cashing out to sit on the sidelines—it’s about maximizing my BTC holdings over time.
It is my opinion that the only reason to sell bitcoin is for the sake of accumulating more when the market rolls over and predictable crashes. If you take 10k to buy 1 BTC and it grows 600%, then you sell it. You now have $70,000 and if BTC then cuts its price in half...you can now have 2 BTC for the same $10,000 investment. This reduces your risk. Rinse and repeat for the next cycle to build wealth and further reduce your risk towards 0%. With that said, my approach will be to always hold some level of BTC. Even if I was exiting over 10 weeks as in the example before, there will always be a portion that I keep as a way to hedge against the greatest threat in all of investing…not being able to actually predict the future.
Here are the hard facts. The all time high price is irrelevant if you don't plan to sell your bitcoin, make a plan to sell, and know WHEN to sell your BTC.
Bottom line: You don’t need to catch the exact top (and you won’t). You just need a plan.
Decide:
*Are you holding for the long term?
*Are you day trading?
*Are you playing the 4-year cycle?
Once you make that choice, stick to it. If you sell BTC when it hits 250k and then BTC continues to climb to hit 350k (for a few hours, probably when you are asleep), who cares? You won.
As the old saying goes, it’s really hard to go broke taking profits. So take them and be grateful that you aren't holding on to your bags of bitcoin for the next 4 years wondering why you never sold anything because a Youtuber told you it was going to be worth 11B this year!
I hope you found this of value, keep trying to learn and grow to reduce your risk and build your wealth. Reach out on social or my website if you want help building or executing on a plan.
At the end of the day, it’s not about catching the exact top—it’s about making money and keeping it. So make a plan, stick to it, take profits, and let Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle work in your favor.
BITCOIN SITS ON CRITICAL BULL MARKET SUPPORT!!!Good day Traders and investors,
Bitcoin at the moment is sitting above VERY CRITICAL Bull market support band. In my opinion, this support needs to hold it there is going to be another leg up.
I want to add this is likely the last time it will hold this line as support. It will not play such a big roll in the future other possibly serving as resistance to the tops or top.
Please keep in mind I as talking about closing above support, so... yes it can wick down. Weekly and monthly closes are very important. If this level is lost with a monthly close, then I would call t his bull run over. Yes, it's that important.
The top shows the entire trend line, and on the bottom is the same line, just zoomed in o the daily.
Please feel free to ask or add anything down below
like and share. Follow me on other socials linked in the BIO.
Kind regards,
WeAreSat0shi
3 week chart forecasted the drop. Now what for Bitcoin?As per analysis:
Update on this chart that forecasted the drop. If you see my Binance BTC chart you will see both line up with each other's analysis yet they are 2 different types of TA and timeframes.
Now the drop has happened the % we forecast of the minimum 25% is not hit yet. This chart shows in yellow the current amount of % in drop BTC has made so far. The orange is the minimum as per history.
You will see on this chart there are now coloured circles around some candles. These are the times when Bitcoin was in a similar late period of a bull market and the RSI white line went under the yellow RSI line.(not the yellow trendline at 50.21 , the actual moving RSI yellow line).
The price drops are shown for these inside the circles, except for covid crash (red circle).
There are date ranges shown which are from the bottom of these price drops to the top of the bull run. I have put similar date ranges at current bottom and the larger of the 2 goes to mid November which would line up with a normal ending to bull run, making right now similar to the pink circled area.
The red circle is the covid crash and if you look at RSI this is the only time in a bull run that the yellow moving RSI line is on a downward slope. Every other time it is sloping down, we are in a bear market. Now look at the current situation, it is a downward sloping line. This is a slight concern.
Now we wait to see what unfolds on the lower timeframe analysis after this recent drop and check other indicators for a bear market confirmation. For now, we must assume we are still in a bull market, unless there are more signs of a bear market showing.
If still in bull run then these prices are a gift on altcoins. The issue is whether BTC wants to close the gap at 77k area which could potentially trigger the bear market to follow, depending on how long it is down at that price.
If this 3week RSI reclaims the yellow moving RSI line then we know the bull run will continue.
BTC - Where Are We?If you think 109k was top, you clearly are not bullish enough, and if you're already liquidated or scared of mere 20% dip then you are over-leveraged which is not healthy.
Global M2 Money Supply RSI Divergence IndicationThis chart combines #Bitcoin price across it's entire lifecycle with a new divergence indicator I created for global M2 money supply. #M2 refers to a broad measure of the total money supply in an economy; an increase of which, is a harbinger of a new flows into assets such as equities and crypto.
The lower panel displays a classic #RSI (relative strength indication) albeit applied to the aggregate of the M2 money supply for all major economies in the world. I've spent a number of years fine tuning a 'divergence' indicator for RSI which I'm now able to successfully apply to this GM2 RSI signal.
The net result when applied to the Bitcoin chart are the clusters of arrows that occur at points of divergence detection. As is evident from the chart these align extremely well with Bitcoin cycle bottoms and serve to complement the existing indicators that I use for bottom detection.
BRAVE NEW COIN TOP (EXPERIMENTAL)BNC:BLX
It's important to note that cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and such forecasts are speculative. Investors should conduct thorough research and consider their risk tolerance before making investment decisions.
CYCLE 4 | Price %Change Extension from 20W SMABTC PRICE %Δ EXTENSION FROM 20W SMA ANALYSIS
Similar to previous Analysis looking at 'Price %Change Extensions' from moving averages (see links below), we take a look at the respective relationship BTC has held with the 20W SMA over its existence.
HISTORICAL BEHAVIOUR
Observable in Prior cycles BTC has topped and bottom out at High Points and Low Point of this relationship. We can see over cycle periods the highs are sloping downward (indicating ATH of future cycles diminishing in nature is historically in line with this relationship). This is observable via the downward sloping green zone connecting cycle peaks in the BTC Price %Δ Extension from 20W SMA.
For cycle bottoms (excluding the bloodbath of cycle 0), generally we see these occur ~around the 80% Price %Δ Extension region (see the red box below).
CYCLE 3 VARIATIONS | THIS TIME WAS DIFFERENT
It is notable that Cycle 3 was the first cycle where the high and low in this relationship occurred before the price All Time Low and High of Cycle 3, and in this instance the indicator displayed more divergent behavior (suggesting price momentum is reversing) with spikes of a lower high and higher low of this relationship indicating cycle 3 ATH and ATL.
CYCLE 4 ATH TAKEAWAYS
* A revisit of the Green Zone has historically coincided with a significant top or cycle ATH with prior price cycles.
* If Cycle 3 behavior is the new norm, then a revisit of the green area may indicate price momentum reversal. This divergent behavior indicated BTC was setting the final ATH for cycle 3.
* Either scenarios may play out again in Cycle 4 and may be a usual relationship to use with confluence of other relationships to identify Price / Market timing to take final profits.
See Relevant Previous Posts Below
Bitcoin goin to 130k by the weekendread the text on the chart
the title is not facts and is clickbait so many ppl see this important information.
Beware that a user on X is stealing many analyst's work from trading view and posting it as his own
his details are on the chart and what you should do.
Bitcoin Bullish Fractal vs. April 2011 - Up OnlyBitcoin is attempting to break out of a 6-month consolidation. This is the 2nd base from the bottom, very similar to the price action in 2011. It has also completed the same 7-wave correction. This fractal suggests that Bitcoin may go up only from here.
MicroStrategy - Bitcoin Holdings Chart & Purchase HistoryPrices and volumes of Bitcoin purchases at MicroStrategy
Over 9k BTC at an average price of 58000. 19452 Btc at $52765.
Even these whales are buying at the tops and sitting in the minuses for years
The largest holder of Bitcoin on the planet is not Microstrategy , but the Chinese government, cryptoanalysts found (twitter.com/cryptoquant_com).
In 2019, Chinese authorities confiscated 194 thousand #BTC , 833 thousand #ETH and other coins as a result of an investigation into PlusToken fraud. To this day, the confiscated crypto lies in the wallets of China's national treasury.
In comparison, MicroStrategy has about 130,000 bitcoins .
27 march
MicroStrategy repaid its $205M Silvergate loan at a 22% discount . As of 3/23/23, $MSTR acquired an additional ~6,455 bitcoins for ~$150M at an average of ~$23,238 per #bitcoin & held ~138,955 BTC acquired for ~$4.14B at an average of ~$29,817 per bitcoin .
Best regards EXCAVO
BLX LONG-TERM FIBS Fibs in on either axis give meaningful, useful, and accurate levels for price and time, but do not tell you which levels are most important. Use with you own judgement. Basis for 0,1 origin points can also be subjective and produce differing results on the x,y, axis
Bitcoin's HistoryThis chart shows the cyclicality and history of Bitcoin's price action since it's inception.
BTC has one more leg upBitcoin is currently range-bound and hasn't broken above resistance. In the coming months, be ready for a move higher towards 125-150k. This is the level I'm predicting to be cycle top.
Cyclical analysis tells us this should occur around fall-winter of 2025. I'll be updating this chart as we near cycle top. For now, this is a potential re-entry point <100k
The next bear market will be steeper than most people think in my opinion.
Crucial point for Bitcoin on the 3 week chartThis 21 day chart shows the green price ranges drop happens every time the white RSI line touches the yellow rsi line. Minimum drop is around 25%.
As you can see 3 times it signalled the top was in and bear market to start. However on the RSI we can see that it has not got that shaded green area similar to every other bull run.
The yellow price range on chart signals current candle drop whilst the orange price range shows the potential minimum should this play out as described.
Each price drop is measured from candle at touch on RSI to the very next candle only.
From this we can deduct that a huge bounce from here is about to happen to restart the last leg up and form the shaded green area on rsi, or
price will drop minimum 25% which is another 11% from current price. From there price moves up to continue bull run or we enter the bear market cycle.
600k in 2029? Alot going on in this chart. I looked at the difference in percentage increase between tops of bull runs, length of bull runs, and halvening dates to try estimate possible targets of this and the next bull run.
I took the 42% decrease in the difference between the first bull run and applied that to the other bull runs. If you look at the covid year 2020, take the covid drop % and add it to the top of the the bull run that year it gets close to that 42% decrease from the increase before. Continued to apply that 42% decrease in percentage growth and got an estimated target of around 260K towards the fall of this year. Looking bull run time length increasing each on as well.
Then did the same for the next bull run as well.
This is just for fun showing a possibility! GL Everyone
The Bitcoin Peak: When Will the Cycle End?Been a while since I published a TA. I’ve been digging deep trying to decipher when the cycle top will come in for Bitcoin. Some say it’s an impossible feat. Well, let’s give it a go.
There are two major dates and one minor date for a possible cycle top:
May 2025
**Volume Flow**: 1157 Days
**From June Bottom**: 1064 days
**ETH clear bottom**: June 2022
**Bar Pattern Fractal**: From 2015 bottom
**221k Price Target**: Target crosses with the model in May.
September 2025
**From November Bottom**: 1064 days
**Major Macro Time Fibonacci**
**Chainlink Fractal**
**Chainlink Time Fib**
March 2025
**Small Time Fibonacci**
**Bull Flag End**
**Average % move and time since 2019**
As you can see, there is a lot of evidence to unpack here, so it’s going to be a long one. Let’s start with the first date: May 2025.
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May 2025
Volume Flow on Heikin Candles on the Monthly shows that from the Bearish cross to the cycle top is 1126 days, which ends up being May.
Every cycle, Bitcoin has always put in a double bottom to mark its cycle low. As you can see, in 2022 we had two major crashes, and even though it’s not 100% clear here, we got a double bottom.
The amazing thing about the first bottom in June 2022 is that it mirrored the first bottom of the cycle low of 2015. That fractal was a mirror, showing the importance of this first low in Bitcoin in June 2022.
If we overlay the 2015 fractal, we get the top coming in May.
For anyone who doesn’t know, the last two cycles, Bitcoin has taken 1064 days from Cycle Low to Cycle Top. 1064 days from the June 2022 low is May.
ETH has a much clearer bottom than Bitcoin this cycle. It also took 1064 days, which puts it in May.
So you can see, there is a lot of evidence pointing towards a May 2025 Cycle Top for Bitcoin.
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September/October 2025
1064 days from the second bottom in November 2022 would be October 2025.
For years, I have been using this Major Macro Time Fibonacci sequence that shows me important moments in Bitcoin’s cycles. The last pointed to a move down to 48k in August 2023, which is hard to see on the 2Week chart.
As you can see, it comes close to pinpointing moves, so the next date is the end of September 2025, which lines up with the 1064 days from November 2022.
I have been following this Chainlink fractal for more than a year. We traded LINK using this fractal back in October 2023. You can check my TAs from that period. The fractal is still valid and tops in September 2025.
Chainlink Fibonacci Time Sequence has been hitting home runs time and time again, from pinpointing the top all the way down to the bottom. The next date is late August 2025, very close to September 2025.
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March 2025
This date has far less weight for a cycle top but could be part of a major local top and correction.
A small Time Fibonacci sequence taken from this level shows that March 31st is the next date, and the one after that is late August 2025, the same as the Chainlink fractal.
240% over 162 days is the average that Bitcoin moves up since 2019. If we just overlay the average, we get 127k by mid-February 2025.
A mirror move from October 2023 to March 2024 puts us in March 2025.
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Elliott Wave Section
I’m not an expert in this field but will throw in some takes.
Could we possibly be in Wave 4 out of 5?
Or could we be finishing Wave 3 right now and in for the first large correction of this bull market?
The fact is, the last time we hit this band on this model was January 2021. After that, there was a 31% correction lasting 31 days.
Sometimes 5 waves are very clear. Take GOLD, for example: there is a clear 5-wave pattern at max Fibonacci extension. This is a massive macro sell signal, in my opinion. Crazy how GOLD hit this level on Wave 5 as Bitcoin breaks 100k.
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### **Price Targets
If we take the first cycle and overlay to 2015 cycle, it gave us the cycle top in 2021.
If we do the same for this cycle and overlay the 2015 cycle, we get a price target of 221k, which puts it at the top of my model in May 2025. Just discovered this—that’s one more point for May 2025.
As you can see, in the last two cycles it worked. Will it work this time? Who knows.
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Pi Cycle Indicator
If we just run a rough projection on when the next cross will be, it crosses in April 2025, very close to May. Keep in mind this is a very rough idea of when it could cross.
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Conclusion
We have 5 points in favor of May 2025, 4 points in favor of September 2025, and 2 points for March 2025. As always, the path is never clear for Bitcoin. Until we get much further down the road, I won’t conclusively know which date it will be.
This model I have been using has been so accurate thus far. We are so high up the last bands that we are most likely going to get some sort of long consolidation period with a correction soon, which would give the altcoin market a run.
Bitcoin monthly candle close above 100K! it might be bad newsHallo. last time bitcoin closed monthly candles above 10 100 1000 10000 dollars it resulted in huge pullbacks. please watch this video. No one is talking about this
Bitcoin 32O,OOO$ on cycle 2025.Just look at BTC from 2019 year. It was the bottom and next pump started. We are in a bullish trend still but soon the trend will finish.
Bottom 2019 - ATH 2021
Bottom 2022 - ATH 2025 ?
4 years cycle)
It will be great time to buy more altcoins. Also you can look and analize others idea.
Graphic of showing bitcoin bear season starting pointAs you can see,BTC finishes its bull run at the white line. for now there is still some space till white line.
Bitcoin accurate bottom and top zones
BINANCE:BTCUSDT
This is my market mood indicator. Accurate determine the bottoms and top of cycles.
Based on this analysis on BLX chart and Monthly timeframe we can find something interesting
- Marked Monthly green zones.
- We never seen white color disbeliefe zones.
- Previews 3 times when we saw BLUE color it was a bottom (I was impressed how accurate it play out!!!)
- Now it looks like 2018-2019 period (green box-blue-green)
- So now no euphoria on market. Need to see yellow, orange and top will be again at extreme red
- Hard to say about timing but most likely we will test trendLine at 35-36 (maybe with fake out to 41)
- Then we will see yellow and orange color on indicator and drop to covid trendLines again 21-19 and continue move forward till 2025 March to extreme RED zones and end of cycle.
Hope you enjoyed the content I created, You can support with your likes and comments this idea so more people can watch!
✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes.
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• Look at my ideas about interesting altcoins in the related section down below ↓
• For more ideas please hit "Like" and "Follow"!
BTC ALL TIME HIGH AND REVERSALBTC all time for 2025 reversal and manipulation and then the low calculated since the start of btc and the low of 0.01$ till now
Bitcoin - Lofty Promises, Disturbing Results: My Crypto Journey.I make no claim to know where Bitcoin is headed. All I know is my opinion on it, and my feelings about cryptocurrencies in general, especially how they've evolved over the years. My sense continues to tell me that things are very wrong with crypto, and that eventually it's going to fade into the uncomfortable past, a kind of failed experiment. Back in 2022, I thought that if it gets bigger and bigger, it's a general symptom of wealth concentration, exploitation, and mass delusion. I don't think this technology is beneficial to society, as it extracts both attention and resources from its participants. Unless, of course, you can manage to be one of those who profits and then turns their profits into material wealth and/or positive change.
Looking at my own personal timeline for my sentiment about crypto, let's see how I ended up here:
November, 2017 : I am out of college for over a year now. I've been working a tough sales job for a year and I'm beginning to get burned out. I hear about Bitcoin from a friend. "if you buy in at $10K, sell at $20k and double your money." I then learn about Bitcoin and think, well, things are pretty bleak in the world right now. I don't know what I'm doing with my life. What if the banks collapse and I'm left with nothing? Bitcoin seems like a viable alternative. I buy out of fear, around $13.8k. Then, I see my value go up. Greed takes over. I go down a rabbit hole, learning about altcoins such as XRP, XLM, and LTC. Even XRB, which later becomes Nano. What if any of these becomes the next Bitcoin?
January, 2018: I think that I should have just cashed out. I must have bought the top. But, what if it all comes back even stronger? I could be rich. I pull out part of my initial investment and watch the rest continue to spiral downwards. I quit my job out of burnout.
May, 2018: Bitcoin continues to make lower highs. I start working that crazy sales job again part-time, as I need the money while the bear market persists.
December, 2018: All hope seems lost. I quit my sales job, again out of burnout and deciding I don't want to do this the rest of my life. I'm 25 years old. Then, I decide to look for reasons price might go up again, which would also then save me from having to go back to work again. I could just be an artist full time. I get into TA, thinking that it's kind of like art. Instead of working on my actual art or writing as much as I want to, I create all sorts of trendlines and other visual and fundamental reasons crypto could come back even stronger than before. I prepare. I buy ETH around $100. I'm now posting regularly on TradingView. I start figuring out which coins I want to load up on for the next bull run.
April, 2019: The market is back. I'm pretty sure the bottom is in. I'm gonna make it. I continue to post about various cryptocurrencies on tradingview, although I begin to feel worried about altcoins. Will they survive through the next cycle?
October, 2019: The market is volatile. Bitcoin finally hits $10K again, though there's something strange going on. Is price being manipulated?
February, 2020: Things are starting to feel precarious. ETH has done better now, boosting my portfolio back towards break even for the first time. The COVID crash is immanent. I've decided on a career to pursue.
March, 2020: Panic. Markets are screwed. I'm going down with the ship. I'm too scared to buy more because everything feels apocalyptic.
September, 2020: I begin grad school. While working mostly from home and attending classes remotely, I have a lot of time on my hands to post crypto analysis. I want to invest more, but I have very little income as a student. I feel that price is about to explode upwards. However, in grad school I'm also learning a lot about systems and becoming more and more skeptical about whether crypto would bring about any positive change to financial systems.
February, 2021: ETH has broken all-time high. I'm in significant profit. I'm checking my portfolio all the time. Will the altcoins rally soon?
Spring - Summer 2021: There's a huge amount of dumping. What's going on here? Why does Elon Musk have so much influence over this market? I thought it was supposed to be decentralized. Tweets are having a huge effect on the market. Should I sell? No, I think it's just a correction. I'm right, at least for now.
December, 2021: I'm feeling pretty bullish. Bitcoin made a significant new all-time high. But, something is tingling underneath my skin. I can't quite shake it. What's going on with this LUNA coin? A number of things are starting to unravel in my mind. For example, El Salvador recently made Bitcoin legal tender, but the response was very tepid. It's not seeming very practical at all. If it's not a viable currency, then what is it? I think about Elon Musk. I think about Michael Saylor and his defrauding of investors during the dotcom boom. I allow the cognitive dissonance I've been experiencing completely take over.
January - February, 2022: My feelings culminate. I decide to let go of all my crypto, realizing that it's not playing out ideally how I'd hoped. Plus, I'm in significant profit now. The forces that have taken advantage and control in traditional markets and the broader economy have latched themselves onto the cryptocurrency market, where investors are easily exploitable. The Super Bowl happens. Crypto starts to feel more and more like a joke. Who is really profiting from all this? NFT's are also irking me.
May, 2022: I finish grad school. Terra LUNA collapses, shortly after I speculated it would. For the rest of the year, I feel validated in my feelings about crypto. FTX collapses later that year, and although in hindsight it marked the bottom of the bear market, I'm hopeful that people will stay far away from this market in years to come. I am optimistic about my own financial future, as I now have a stable career. Later in the year, I make some money day trading, but I eventually stop since it's distracting me from my work.
July, 2023: I continue with my new career in the mental health field. I'm 30 years old. XRP was deemed not a security when sold to retail investors, but a security when sold to initial institutional investors. I am disappointed in this outcome, as I disagree and believe many altcoins like XRP are clear securities. I'm glad to be paying less attention to the crypto market.
January, 2024: Against my speculation and to my disappointment, Bitcoin ETF's are approved. I stubbornly stay away from the market, believing the ETFs to be another cash grab and an opportunity for existing holders to cash out, particularly those whales who have been on the stablecoin side of things - the orchestrators behind USDD, USDT, etcetera.
August, 2024: Ripple is only fined a tiny fraction of the initial request by the SEC for selling unlicensed securities. This opens the floodgates for money to pour back into altcoins, and for more ETFs to eventually be created.
November, 2024: Bitcoin finally makes a significant new all-time high after Trump is re-elected. It had been consolidating for much of the year, seeming at times that it would break down and not push past its previous high.
January, 2025: Trump is back in office. There's volatility across the market. Many are hopeful that his presidency will bear fruit for crypto holders. Meanwhile, he creates his own meme tokens and profits enormously from them, not unlike the numerous crypto grifters from years past, the grifters that took hold of the market and told me to stay away. I feel upset that price went against my speculation, though also vindicated. Crypto is exactly what I realized it was. My opinion has not changed. It's just another bulky asset, though one where the corruption is far more transparent than it is in the world of traditional finance. Even though it's there for all to see, not much is being done about it. Typical, really, of this current era of deregulation and apathy. Michael Saylor continues to hoard more and more. It's just the plaything of the wealthy now. It's what some people always wanted Bitcoin to become, but the antithesis of what many thought it represented.
I'm happy with my career, and I feel good knowing I invested in myself and did not continue to chase cryptocurrencies. After all, it's better to be able to generate capital myself than wait for someone else to do it for me. It's a more certain future for me, with much less speculation. I'm also able to pay off everything from grad school with my profits from the last bull market.
Bitcoin active addresses have not grown since 2017. studio.glassnode.com
It is hoarding, and hoarding through custodians. Plus, those who were already into it just kept buying. A few left entirely. And a few wealthy players began accumulating.
Now for a little TA:
This is the structure I'm looking at for Bitcoin. Failure to push back above that orange trendline has resulted in a rejection so far. This chart should give an idea as to the various extremes price can take over the coming days/weeks:
This is the longer term BLX chart, showing diminishing returns curved trendlines. If Bitcoin continues to follow this shape, the peak could be limited to $160-170K if reached this year. That is, if it has not already hit the top.
The bottom of this structure is comfortably at a major level - near $30k.
This bullish structure would need to break down to confirm a bearish period:
Right now, the chart LOOKS bullish, but it's important to pay attention to the other signals, the other things going on behind the scenes. Public perception is important as well. The monthly chart appears bullish until the 9 EMA (near $80k now) is lost. The ultimate oscillator continues to show a longer term bearish divergence:
The weekly chart can look like a tweezer top with a failed high if price cannot push back above $108k later this week.
If that push up is successful, I think price can rally up towards $160k before profit taking begins in real earnest again.
Let's see what happens!
Thank you for going on this journey with me, especially if you've followed me since the earlier days. As always, this post represents my personal opinion and is in no way intended as financial advice.
-Victor Cobra
