Is Bitcoin stabilizing or next cycle will be differentLooking at BTC history we can see that every cycle we reach new all time high but its increasing at decreasing rate.
Means first time BTC increased ~58566% from 2.01$ to 1,177.19$ but next cycle we only did ~11,960% from 163.88$ to 19,764.51$ thats ~4.89x less than previous cycle. Third cycle also got a ~5.72x decline that second cycle, a drop from ~12,060% increase in second cycle to only ~ 2,189.88% increase in third cycle.
If we take average declining rate between cycles and apply it for next cycle we would get ~5.3x decline from last cycle, That would give us a ~494.31% increase from current bottom of 15,495.37 to a new all time high at ~76,595$
This is normal for BTC as the bigger it gets the heaver it should be to move and the harder it is to go higher or lower. In a very optimizing and unlikely scenario BTC can hypothetically do a 2,189.88% increase like previous cycle and that will make new all time high at 339,330$ but thats very very unlikely.
BLX trade ideas
BTC Very BearishBTC has already broken out to the downside of an ascending wedge. An attempt to get back above the 200 MA suffered strong rejection. It’s now sitting at major support. If this support fails (an I expect it will) I expect price to move down to the 0.618 Fib line at around $25,500. A bounce from here would be an excellent opportunity to secure the new bull market. I’ll be looking to get long here if this confirms. If this level fails we are looking at a move down to $18,800 to find the next strong support.
Comparison of Bitcoin's Four Bull MarketsComparing the past ten years, there have been three bull market rises. The focus is on the relatively large V-shaped bottom trend. This effect can only be seen through the vertical screen. It is still in the stage of upward breakthrough from the bottom and is still in the early stage of the bull market. It is far away from the previous high and The new high is still far away. Every bull market will rise from the bottom in a V shape, and will eventually break through the previous high to create a new high.
Bear entrance not ALLOWEDHere is the update of previous analysis of BTC
In my opinion we will see the 24200$ with 5% tolerance of the mentioned area
Besides , it will be the bottom of BTC for this year: 2023
And i STRONGLY believe that we wiil pass the 32000 resistance area
And WILL REACH the ATH
And then the new ATH 72000 to 82000 for first time till 2025/june.
have fun .love yall
BTC Bullish - HTF Ascending ChannelCRYPTOCAP:BTC
IMO, most likely scenario for #BTC
Am not seeing this discussed by anyone I follow, but we are in a HTF (5+ years) Ascending Channel.
Target ~$250k in 2024-2025.
In the end, it will all look so obvious.
Don't get distracted by the LTF's.
Eyes on the Prize.
#Bitcoin
Check out bitcoin's price history, it loves bouncing in HTF ascending channels. One that particularly comes to mind is the 2014-2017 channel (when it broke out to the upside en route to $20k).
Bitcoin is a fascinating price chart, will never see anything like it in my lifetime. Just sit back and enjoy the show.
-@CryptoCurb
BITCOIN GRAND SUPERCYCLE- FULL INDICATOR STACKOn this form of the chart, you can see how we have a rising wedge that has the potential to bring us as low as 14k. We tested the inverse .618 golden pocket of the entire elliot wave standard cycle which was just completed at the golden pocket, which is also the golden pocket of the GRAND SUPERCYCLE as well as an inverse head and shoulders from the current bear market bottom AND the monthly 200 EMA. Any lower here, and it is likely sayonara, because that makes this rising wedge NOT a leading diagonal, becoming an ending diagonal, and it means the current supercycle could technically still be corrective. If that were the case, we have the potential to still see some very bearish targets. If 19,750k was never lost, however, The Grand Supercycle wave 1 and 2 remains valid, just that wave 2 may retrace a lot deeper than we expect. This is easily the sketchiest i have seen these markets since I began watching them. Be careful out there, my friends. Mad love and respect. May all the bags PAMP. Even if they're shorts ;)
BITCOIN GRAND SUPERCYCLE - ELLIOT WAVE THEORY PERSPECTIVE - PT 3And here, on the daily, we can see tradingview's automatic chart patterns are speculating the potential for a wave 5 here from the inverse .618 of this entire current Standard Cycle, which is wave 1 of a new supercycle, and potentially the end of wave 2, beginning of the Grand Supercycle Wave 3.
BITCOIN GRAND SUPERCYCLE - ELLIOT WAVE THEORY PERSPECTIVE- PT. IA grand supercycle can be conceptualized as the general lifetime of an asset or index. Elliot wave theory depicts that markets move in motive and corrective waves, fractal in nature and related to one another through fibonacci retracement levelss. If Elliot Wave theory is to be believed here, We have just tested THE GRAND SUPERCYCLE GOLDEN POCKET. This could easily be the most imporant weeks and months for all of cryptocurrency. We have confirmed now, a standard cycle (three degrees below the Grand Supercycle) complete at the retest of the golden pocket, with confirmed complete abc correction. From here, it is entirely possible that we are entering wave 2 of a supercycle, which also means we have completed wave 2 of the grand supercycle.
If that is validated by a wave 5 standard cycle top here of 40k, we can expect a new bull market to have just begun. this means that a supercycle wave 1 has just begun, and potentially means the grand supercycle has just entered wave 3, which is known throughout history to be the strongest impulse of an asset's lifetime. Its getting spicy out here!!!!!
BTC Based on historyFriends, hello!
Today, I want to update our perspective on market phases, considering the recent changes we have been observing. Many of you may remember when I talked about the beginning of the Accumulation phase, which led to the growth we discussed. This period of growth had similar characteristics to previous cycles, and now we are witnessing a transition to a new stage - the Expansion phase.
Based on history, we can observe a consistent final decline in this phase, which is a characteristic phenomenon for this stage. It's important to remember that we are facing two 🩸 months in market history. It's during this period that we need to be particularly vigilant and cautious. However, it's important to understand that these challenges can be used to our advantage.
According to the theory of fractals, there are approximately 250 days left until the completion of the Expansion phase, after which we will have the opportunity to move on to the next stage. We are all looking forward to this moment - the Bull Market.
I am looking forward to your thoughts and a collective discussion. 🚀🌕
BITCOIN - THE OPPORTUNITY - PT. IVI am still looking at this as an inverse HS and only concerned with this current elliot wave cycle. IF we hold that inverse HS neckline, that validates a wave 1-2 of a larger degree and has the potential to make this a very aggressive wave 5 with some very bullish potential. It may likely take a long @$$ time though.
BITCOIN- THE OPPORTUNITY - PT. IIII am starting to get the impression that we might end up holding on to this macro golden pocket which is a reverse fib of the entire elliot wave. If you consider the nature of elliot wave theory...the implications for this are so massive i cant even comprehend it.
I have begun to dip back into some spot, had 2 orders fill over the past few months around 24,869. I plan on buying in 10% incriments all the way down to 14k.
Bitcoin 365D SMA and 600D SMA InteractionsWhite Line = 365 SMA
Green Line = 600 SMA
Asset = Bitcoin
Patterns observable in this chart:
1. When the Bitcoin Halving occurs, the 365 SMA is already above the 600.
2. The Golden Cross of 365 and 600 occurs earlier than previous cycle.
- In the 2nd Halving, 80+ bars
- In the 3rd Halving, 160+ bars
- In the 4th Halving, "probably" 200+ bars
3. That the Death Cross takes 350 days in average.
First time the 50 week MA has moved below the 200This is Bitcoin's first crossing of the 50 week Moving Average below the 200 week Moving Average, during its history.
The last time we came close was just prior to the 2016-17 bull run. The difference then is that it never moved below.
Could this act as a catalyst to recover back above the 200 week MA, and become bullish, or is this signs an extended bear market may be in store?
Bitcoin:Monthly chart ViewHi guys.
Hope you have had perfect trades.
In this idea i will share you some TA perspectives about
Bitcoin Longterm reactions according to historical datas.
As you can see each time the price reached the MA50 , made a
trough below it and then come back above.
Now we can se in Monthly chart that after price shaped
a Bottom under MA50 , it tries to come back above with a
Bullish Engulfing pattern.
after that we surpass MA50 with another white candle and now ,
Unfortunately we have some frauds in market.
(China Evergrande Group bankruptcy and Tesla sold
millions of BTC).
So in my opinion after a few weeks , Bitcoin start to continue
its smoothed run and go towards 36000.
its the level we will see at the end of 2023.
after that...
Lets see what will happen and dont predict far futures :)
If you like my opinion please tell me yours in comment.
Thank you all my friends
#BITCOIN's 3 Year Moving Average = FIRM CEILINGWE SHOULD HAVE BROKEN above this 3 year average by now
and been using it as support to provide a launchpad into next year's having.
INSTEAD it has firmly been capping prices during these last few months when historicallym it would have been penetrated by now.
Quite concerning for those who are still heavily in #Altcoins
Rearranging Deck Chairs on the Crypto-TitanicThere is tension in the markets, and it doesn't look good. Powell is raising rates to tame inflation and it's working just enough to piss everyone off. Bitcoin--similar to housing--is overvalued. This is evidenced by the number of scammers and tiktokers running get rich quick schemes. Real Estate Agents included.
This time is different, but not the way you thought.
And war. War never changes.