BTC Long term analysis BTC Long term analysis....
Now we are In falling channel....
If we break out channel this will be huge bullish sign...
Possible pullbacks from the top of the Channel
BLX trade ideas
$BTC is the correction over, or do we grind higher?Been expecting a 3 wave move in this bear market formed of 5 waves down, 3 waves correction, final 5 waves down.
Not sure it is quite over yet and sentiment is that if the $32400 area is broken we have confirmation of a new bullmarket.
Indicators are suggesting we are more likely near a top than a new bullmarket based on:
Stoch RSI forming a double top pattern at extremes -: note, crossover not confirmed yet
Williams Vix in the low sell band
LMacd declining green bars divergence -: note, no moving average crossover yet
In my opinion, price can stretch higher and I will only look to short either:
A) when all 3 indicators are flashing at the same time to sell (awaiting the crossovers)
B) price enters my shorting zone marked in the rectangle
TVC:DXY having alot of fake-outs, but looks like it is building a bottom structure again
Natural Gas and Crude Oil are breaking out, which is a forward indicator of inflation surging again and therefore continuation of the bear market.
Selling pressure can come in May also from Gemini and DCG fud as well as US dumping silk road bitcoin
BLXUSDWeekly Bearish Divergence setting up for the Bitcoin sale of 2023. Possible triple bottom and then slow an steady growth.
90k Bitcoin by Dec 2023?2023 looks like it will be bullish.
Is it possible that that Bitcoin could reach 90k by late 2023 or even early 2024? Yes anything is possible, however it's not likely. What is likely is the beginning of the new bull market (March/April) is what I believe. Until then, we will only see small movements with volatility growing upward into second quarter of 2023.
The Stochastic RSI on the monthly has never had a false signal and historical marked the beginning of the Bull market.
Only time will tell, Invest responsible.
This is by no means investment advice.
Wall Street Cheat Sheet Psychology of a Market Cycle on BitcoinWall Street Cheat Sheet Psychology of a Market Cycle is a very famous one among traders and investors. While this sheet was made with the intention of Stock Market, I see it's been used much in Crypto world as well.
In this chart I try to plot the respective psychological stages in the chart it self based on my interaction with local traders/investors. This is not an accurate as it's only reflects my personal view. Anyone can interpret this differently based on their social sentiment.
Something additional I have added are;
Line of Disbelief: This line indicates a price point where many people will have a disbelief of the price action
Line of Hope: This line indicates a price point where many people will move from Disbelief to Hope
Credits: wallstcheatsheet for building
Hope you liked it, as always share your views and criticism.
Various cycle bottoms of BitcoinThe chart shows various forms of previous bitcoin cycle bottoms, so far we have had double bottom, adam and eve bottom, and if we have bottomed this time around, we would have an inverted head and shoulder bottom.
BTCUSDThis is the last run for me. Yes, you read that right.
2026 is for casted to be our next mother of all crashes. Feel free to visit this chart then. In 2023 every monthly red candle is a buy for me as i layer in. 2024 will be quiet but steady growth but I think we might see a monster divergence signal on the RSI as people buy property and are over extended. Margin calls will likely ruin 2026-2027 till 2030. i may update this as my studies are honed and refined but this is my initial cycle count.
But, I am 100% wrong...
M~
Golden Pocket on Bitcoin Weekly TimeframeIf we break the rising trend we are on in the weekly timeframe and close the candle below, the GOLDEN POCKET area that will welcome us is very clear. (Don't be afraid.)
BLX - Big RunA suggestion of large bull continuation coming
The curves are exactly the same and sort of act as a cup and handle
Supporting my previous idea of a run to 700K which is what I will link below
#Bitcoin #BTC #BTCUSD Are We There Yet? A Year LaterThe question on everyone's lips, are we there yet? Is the #BearMarket bottom in?
Almost 1 year ago to the day I shared my Bitcoin bottoms up idea:
Which used Ben Cowen's risk indicator to indicate the bottom or top of the Bitcoin market waves.
The theory for using this indicator is as follows:
1. Bottoms must be below 0.20
2. Tops must be over 0.85
3. Anything below 0.60 but over 0.20 is accumulation
As you can see the indicator called the following tops and bottoms:
2011 Bear Market Bottom
2013 Bull Market Top
2015 Bear Market Bottom
2017 Bull Market Top
2018 Bear Market Bottom
2020 Covid-19 Crash Bottom (Black Swan Event)
2021 Bull Market Top
That means that this theory of use for the indicator has correctly identified every significant bottom or top since 2011 apart from the November 2021 blow off.
While the November 2021 blow off top is not completely insignificant many do not count this as the top from a technical point of view and there are a host of valid reasons for that.
If we take a look to the present day we can see that between the end of June and October 2022 the indicator dropped below 0.20, which begs the question, was that the bottom?
I have marked 14th November 2022 as the possible bottom and there are strong indications that this is the case. However, what we must remember is the wider picture and the likely recession that is incoming (Bitcoin has never experienced a recession so will be unprecedented times).
I therefore believe we will see an accumulation phase, without breaking above the 0.60 level before returning back down for one final plummet to put in a further low (in much the same way we put in a higher high after the top was called in late 2021).
For me the sensible play is to allow the time to pass more before entering the market, as mentioned these are unprecedented times, with the Ukraine/Russia war and looming recession. The risk of further lows is far higher than the possible risk of not catching the exact bottom price in my opinion. Having said that if you did enter around 15.5, and I know some who did, you cannot say it was a bad move at all.
Let me know what you think
Everyone thinks the Bullmarket is BACK! ... but it isn't.BTC DOUBLE topped for the first time in its history. People expect there to only be ONE downtrend from the top... well reality is about to hit the bulls hard when the yield curve un-inverts and rates get cut. Don't believe me? Research those concepts for yourself and make a decision. It's different this time. You've been warned.
BTCUSD - Run to 700KAn idea for BTCUSD showing extreme growth during a strong bull market
this is an extension to 2.618 of the previous rally's bear market
Large continuation pattern
Bitcoin is so bullishBitcoin appears to have entered a bull market phase, which is characterized by an upward trend in prices over an extended period. While some traders may be focused on short-term gains, it is important to remember that in bull markets, the best strategy is often to hold onto your investments for the long term.
Short-term trading can be tempting, but it can also be risky. In a bull market, prices can be volatile and unpredictable, making it difficult to accurately time trades and exit at the right moment. Additionally, short-term traders are more susceptible to market fluctuations and can be easily shaken out of their positions by sudden drops in price.
On the other hand, investors who hold onto their Bitcoin for the long term are more likely to see consistent gains over time. While there may be some fluctuations in price, these are generally smoothed out over the long term, allowing investors to benefit from the overall upward trend in the market.
Of course, this does not mean that long-term investors should simply hold onto their Bitcoin without paying attention to market conditions. It is still important to monitor the market and make informed decisions about when to buy or sell. However, the focus should be on the long-term trends rather than short-term gains.
In conclusion, it is my belief that Bitcoin has entered a bull market and that investors who hold onto their investments for the long term are likely to see consistent gains over time. While short-term trading can be tempting, it is important to remember that in bull markets, the best strategy is often to hold onto your investments and ride out any fluctuations in price. As always, investors should carefully monitor market conditions and make informed decisions based on their own risk tolerance and investment goals.
Bitcoin FULL EW Model 🎯 🎯🎯BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
The PROOF is in the PUDDING
Beauty and the Beast
Its ALL in the charts, accurately nailing targets on BOTH sides, TOP & BOTTOM
Try find a TA on TV, YT or CT who has been THIS accurate
If you can't handle the bearish targets during correction, it means you ain't a true trader and don't got the guts or the balls.
Real traders bank profits on BOTH sides of the trade, not just during 'up-only' (so many got caught off-guard uptop above 60k yelling BTC 100k while the signals were all clearly there for over a month, just like during pre-may dump).
1 last & final leg missing to this beautiful beast, and if/when she starts to drip, sooooo many cryptomaniacs are going to be completely mind-blown & surprised
If you read this and saw my chart, then you now know what to be looking out for.
Good Luck
Bitcoin LongTerm Systematic Trade SetupBitcoin LongTerm Systematic Trade Setup
Max Drawdown Less than 25%
This is Systematic Trade Setup for Long-Term Investment (Months-Years)
We uses the Trend Based Fib Time tool along with Bitcoin fundamentals.
The maximum drawdown is under 25%, and both the long and short positions are based on macroeconomic data.
Back Test Stats (2019-2022)
Trade: 5
Win: 5
Lose: 0
Profit: 983%
The best Long position is the day that Bitcoin halved (May 2024 + Fib 2.618)
Profit: 559%
Why are you taking so much Stress?😉So I don't really see a lot of people talking about this on the Internet. Bob Loukas was the first who actually made a very Bold Statement that "Bitcoin usually follows a Three Year Bull Market Phase and then a Devastating Bear Market in the Final Fourth Year"
I have linked his Original vid in the end of this. Also except that 2010 Year if you just count BLX Chart on a Yearly Basis you can see how beautifully things have played for this Asset class. Now yes there will be a lot of No-Sayers about that Cycle doesn't work but just look at the Charts and see for yourself. Humans can lie at times, but Prices don't lie and it is clearly evident for your reference.
If we go by this Model (which has worked Three Times very accurately) the current low is at 15500k and this will be the final low, now it remains to be seen if we test that Dec lows of 2022 again. But even then Prices should not fall below 15,500 level.
According to this Model 2025 will be the final year of any Bullish Upside Momentum. We will see a lot more Optimistic Sentiment at that time right when the Top will occur. But for now i think we will continue Making Higher Highs and all that Nonsense Stuff...
Plus also it is much, much better to have a Swing Trading Approach so that you aren't just constantly Glued to Prices. Let's be Honest Trading can be a very challenging job plus it puts a lot of pressure on your Health, your own body to be right on every instance as I myself have tried in the past...
Listen, if you still want to Trade that is Perfectly fine even I do take occasionally Trades if I see any OPPORTUNITIES but have a Separate Account for that. "Grass is not always Greener" especially a lot of Fake Trading Gurus will tell you 'Buy my Freakin Course' 'Learn about this Crazy Indicator Setting', Trust me none of that will work. The Only thing works here is Having Patience, Believing in Yourself, Doing that Boring Thing, Learning and most importantly respecting the concept of Risk Management, Not having Emotional Attachment towards your Portfolio and also your Psychology I would say. Anyways if you have any questions regarding this let me know I will be more than happy to help you so that a lot of you could take advantage of this knowledge and won't mess unlike Previous Bear Market Rallies because Bear Market Rallies are Hard to catch and they do fool a lot of people if you been here in Trading/Investing you already know how Sharp they are. And thank you for reading all of this😊
Bob Loukas Original Vid Link : youtu.be
Expectations VS RealityReality is almost always a perfect inversion of common expectations when it comes to markets.
Bitcoin market cycles leading into 2025Here it is crypto fam. Here we have the market cycles for Bitcoin and in color. We begin with the year of the bull run then we have the bearmarket year then the year that no one likes which is the year of Pain. After pain we have the famous and most anticipated Bitcoin halving year then the most exciting time in crypto is the Bullrun year. We have had three of these cycles already and the fourth is coming upon us soon. Before we have fun though we will be going through the year of Pain this year because even though Bitcoin is climbimg beautifully now we are expecting another test to the bottom which we call Pain. The year of the halving in 2024 will be a great time to buy up your favorite projects and then when 2025 comes we have a beautiful Christmas.
45-48k Target, by May/July.Thinking echo bubble top plays out similar to previous cycle..
No guarantees of course..
My upside target is 45-48k my may/july this year..
As you can see, fib speed fan 0.75, 0.618 horizontal fib, and 0.75 time based fib all intersect and mark the local top.
The 0.5 is positioned where the bottom formed. The exact amount of time that it took from the 2017 top to the 2018 bottom, is repeated this cycle. 52 weeks.
Brave New Coin Bullish Target UpdateWith allot of overhead resistance forecasted it is fair to assume the next target to fall between $36500 & $39000 before we push onto $49500?
Note : all target based on PnF chart calculations!
Brave New Coin Bullish TargetsI find these charts very satisfying to the eye although working on round numbers most of the time!
Note the updates are somewhat delayed so cannot be relied upon in real time.
Predicting Bitcoin tops and bottoms using halving dates.I thought I will share with you what I found out. Apparently by measuring time from the halving you can more or less guess the bitcoin tops and bottoms and/or correction or dead cat bounce to safely sell what you got. This is not going to show you perfectly where to sell and where to buy but it is not for that, this is to help long term traders when to scale in and scale out of the market, regardless of the price. It can be hard, as you know everyone at the top screams for higher targets and at the bottom for lower. I hope this will help you out. And feel free to do a different measure of your own, Just put halving dates and start from there. Thanks!
Bitcoin next 4 year cycle top October 2025 $BTCBNC:BLX
Both the current bear market top to bottom and previous bear market is within the same timeframe within a 2 week candle. Both the last 2 bull markets lasted the same time within 2 weeks. Nearly eactly 50% through each bull market was the top of an automatic rally (Wyckoff AR) or key pivot RH3. This would put the top of the next automatic rally at May 2024 and the end of the bull market at Mid Oct 2025 4 year cycle
