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Technical History on the Bitcoin Monthly chartReflecting on the history of Bitcoin, I've observed that there have only been a few instances when the price dipped below the 55 exponential moving average (EMA) on the monthly timeframe. I remember back in January 2015, there was a tiny wick below the 55 EMA. Then, in January 2019, we experienced our first candle close below it. Fast forward to July 2022, and we began to see several consecutive monthly closes below the 55 EMA, even before the FTX collapse. After months of anticipation, I've noticed that Bitcoin has finally pushed above the 55 EMA for the first time in several months. This followed a whole month of consolidation right below it. Additionally, Bitcoin has managed to push above the 21 EMA, after falling below it in April 2022 – almost exactly a year ago when we lost that crucial moving average. As I dug deeper into the data, I noticed that in December, the monthly RSI (Relative Strength Index) was essentially at its lowest point ever. From a technical perspective, this implies that since the rebound, we've started to see some hidden bullish divergence forming. I've maintained a bullish outlook on crypto since December, and everything I'm seeing now only strengthens my case. While I still believe that we may experience a decent pullback in the coming month, I remain optimistic that the overall trend will continue to be bullish. The only caveat would be if Bitcoin loses the 21 EMA, as it would signify an extremely bearish scenario if we were to close a monthly candle below the 55 EMA. Currently, the 55 EMA stands at around $23,300 or so. Closing below the 55EMA would be worst case scenario for Bitcoin bulls for the time being.
BNC:BLXLong
by bitdoctor
Bitcoin No Limits - World Takeover Don't Trust The MarketcapHello this is my first post for the future and some bitcoin projections I have been running during the bear market, everyone see it from my view and why this is a pretty historic event happening before our eyes. Biggest financial event in human history to be exact. . not just our lives. 2025 $855,775 Medium | Market cap ($17,971,275,000,000 based on 21m supply) $17.971 trillion $2,038,869 Parabolic | Market cap ($42,816,249,000,000 based on 21m supply) $48.816 trillion BASED on today's price of 1 Bitcoin worth $22,800 | Invested amount $2,052 = 0.09 BTC | Return on 2025 $183,498 that's 8,742%. -------------------------- 2030 $3,471,145 Medium | Market cap ($72,894,045,000,000 based on 21m supply) $72.894 trillion $6,610,057 Parabolic | Market cap ($138,811,197,000,000 based on 21m supply) $138.811 trillion BASED on today's price of 1 Bitcoin worth $22,800 | Invested amount $2,052 = 0.09 BTC | Return on 2030 $592,853 that's 28,791%. -------------------------- You need to stop looking at Bitcoin based on market capitalization, this is not a technology stock, this is not a company they cannot be compared what so ever. Its impossible to dilute Bitcoin, Its not impossible to dilute Apple shares. Fiat money can be printed and devalued renominated, Its impossible to print Bitcoin and create inflation outside of the 21m limit. Rick Falkvinge explains this perfectly, how do we calculate a 1 billion dollar market cap token? Step 1 Issue 1 billion Tokens Step 2 convince a few thousand people to buy each token for $1 Step 3 you now have what wall street uses to value companies economic value, and you probably just realized 100 Trillion in Bitcoin is not 100 trillion dollars, you can have a 1,000 trillion market cap with less than 50 Trillion of fiat value floating around in the asset. You start to realize the total crypto market capitalization filled with scams was not 3.0 Trillion in real fiat value. In 2021 at the peak only 176 Billion was the daily volume on Coinmarketcap, if you add in that market caps are not correct it would be less than a 10 billion per day of real fiat currency, its a lot correct but its not near what people thought. Lets continue the journey and use Visual Capitalist to see what money looks like today. -Notional value of derivatives is now estimated to be $600 trillion, notional value is another method to use over market cap. -Market value of derivatives $12.4 trillion -House hold wealth globally $463 trillion -Commercial real estate $33 trillion -Residential real estate $259 trillion -Global debt $300 trillion -Global money supply M1 $48.9 trillion M1 includes currency i.e. banknotes and coins, plus overnight deposits -Global money supply M2 $82.6 trillion M2 is a measure of the U.S. money stock that includes M1 (currency and coins held by the non-bank public, checkable deposits, and travelers' checks) plus savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts), small time deposits under $100,000, and shares in retail money market mutual funds. -Global Equities $95.9 trillion -Central Bank Assets $28.0 trillion Fed, BoJ, Bank of China, and Eurozone only Here we come to the end, where you should now understand even purchasing $1 dollar of Bitcoin can equal a range of multiples more than 10x of market cap pressure if you're measuring it in market cap. What can we use besides market cap to find Bitcoins value? we can't it has not been created yet. Further points, sovereign states who purchase Bitcoin and have no plan to make them available to the public market like El Salvador that's another multiples of leverage on top of the original purchase, and unlike derivatives this leverage can be held infinitely just how central banks store Gold bars infinitely. Still wondering what this is implying after that long explanation? For Bitcoin to get near a $100 trillion dollar market cap giving it a price of $4,800,000 per coin you could pull this off with less than $10 trillion of real fiat injecting into the Bitcoin economy if 21,000,000 coins are openly traded. Some factors that will be unknown due to the nature of statistics - how many coins are truly lost? - how much fiat will central banks print? - how many users will be on layer 2s like the lightning network? ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This is why the Bitcoin exchange supply is acting abnormal and its starting to really decrease due to institutions, banks, funds all allocating behind the scenes regardless if Bitcoin goes to $5,000, $10,000 anything under $100,000 is cheap. Fidelity investments one of the largest funds in the world notices this trend and they have made their decision. What are pathways institutions are taking to capture this wealth? - Cold storage. - Long-Term Equity Anticipation Securities (LEAPS) call options that expire longer than 1 year. - Avoid futures ETF's or any futures product that does not use underlying Bitcoin, these decay and have management fee's and will greatly reduce your profit. (I found this ETF that tracks Bitcoins price?) forget it don't touch it. Bitcoin cycles will eventually became a thing of the past once adoption reached maximum velocity, lets enjoy the time we have with it now and respect it till its gone. Better call Doc Brown when Bitcoin starts to move you're gonna see some serious s***
BNC:BLXLong
by FederalXBT
6
⚡️BITCOIN⚡️ - THE BIG WAVE HAS STARTED! 🌊🌊Hello friends of trading View! I'm Gustavo Correa and I come to bring you another study on past and future correlations. Look at this monthly chart: We have just below the MACD indicator set at 5/15/9. See the particularities of these four moments when the MACD was negative and crossed to positive. 👉🏼 From left to right we see Bearmarket. Right after a crossing pointed out by the red circle, we observe a jump of 159%. 👉🏼In the second event, in May 2020, as soon as there was a crossing, there was a jump of 562% 👉🏼In the third event, on September 21, there was a crossing and then a 45% jump. Now see what a beautiful thing! A new event like the previous 3 is taking place. The crossover has already occurred and so far there has been a 23% jump. Will we see a violent bullish move, bigger than past events? The real thing is that Bullmarket has already started and we already have more than 80% appreciation so far. What do you think of this idea? Comment down below and see you next time!
BNC:BLXLong
by GustavoCorrea1
Short Term - Navigating Potential Correction and Managing RiskOver the weekend, I've been analyzing Bitcoin's performance, seeking to determine its next market move. Similar to my view on the S&P 500, I believe that Bitcoin is due for a correction in the near future. It's possible that we could see a spike to $30,600 or even slightly above before experiencing a larger rejection. This level represents an equality target based on my wave analysis. While it would be an extended move, I'd assign it a 40% probability of reaching that high. If Bitcoin does approach $30,000, be prepared for a swift spike, as numerous stop losses could be triggered at that level. Following a rejection, we can expect Bitcoin to revisit the 200-week moving average, currently around $25,000. It's not unusual for price action to oscillate around this crucial indicator. A drop from even our current levels to $25,000 represents a $2,500 move or roughly a 10% decline. While entering high-leverage short positions on Bitcoin futures or perpetual swaps might be tempting, it's essential to manage risk wisely. I personally liquidated (note: sold to cash) a portion of my BTC holdings at $28,000 last week and plan to wait for a significant pullback before re-entering the market with those funds. As for the much-anticipated altcoin season, exercise caution and consider reducing risk in this area as well. It might be prudent to take some profits now and look for re-entry opportunities when Bitcoin eventually corrects. Remember, market conditions can change rapidly, and it's essential to have a well-thought-out strategy in place. The current Bitcoin market outlook suggests a potential correction in the near future. As always, it's crucial to manage risk and avoid overexposure in high-leverage positions. Keep a close eye on market movements and technical indicators, and make informed decisions based on your own research and analysis. Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
BNC:BLX
by bitdoctor
AW Bitcoin Analysis - Getting Closer To The Preferred Count...As always, I aim to improve my analysis of Bitcoin because if I am not producing better ideas then I am not doing my job. You can see the chart for this idea linked down below in related ideas. By now I have dissected and cross examined this chart more times than I can count. Let's get one thing straight, Bitcoin has not ever seen a GFC so assuming that it won't actually correct properly during a crisis is probably going to cost you dearly. The news is cat ship wrapped in dog ship, so believing that Bitcoin is performing well because of some silly media BS is only setting you up for failure. Besides, don't people often say that the FED never lets the market correct properly? Why wouldn't you want cryptos to correct properly? One thing Bitcoin has never done is correct properly so if you want it to go higher then you will understand why this is important. Does this offer people a chance to get in at a much lower price? You better believe it, and I want to help you get in cheaper because when the whole space finally moves up, you will be better off for it. Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd? Just remember: I am not a financial adviser; I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research. ***AriasWave is not the same as Elliott Wave so your counts may differ to mine if you happen to use it.***
BNC:BLX
by AriasWave
1
AW Bitcoin Analysis - IS SHTF For Bitcoin? Old Count Modified...The truth is that my old count modified For Blue Wave 4 makes a lot of sense when looked at this way. Why? Because if I was counting this move up as a Weak 5-Wave move, the problem is that Waves 4, 2 and 1 are not overlapping. Therefore, it cannot really be classified as an official Weak 5-Wave move. Duh! But also, look what happens when I run a trend-line from the previous 2 Wave 4's... Price has been interacting with this particular trend-line recently which might help explain the price action at the lows right now. Something about the crazy insane mania I have seen lately piqued my curiosity and I just had to try out this combination of analysis. It seems plausible therefore I will head in this direction because it makes sense to do so. I have also been making progress with the move down since all-time-highs which might help explain what we are seeing now. Could the SHTF for the original crypto afterall? Could we really be in Wave 2 of a larger unfolding trend right now? I will do my best to answer these questions very soon. Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd? Just remember: I am not a financial adviser; I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research. ***AriasWave is not the same as Elliott Wave so your counts may differ to mine if you happen to use it.***
BNC:BLX
by AriasWave
AW Bitcoin Analysis - The Current Wave D In More Detail...This video is a continuation of the previous idea where I discuss the larger pattern. (Linked Below) I also give you price estimations which can vary depending on where Wave E ends. Wave D is really good at faking people out, so this is why I am going so deep on this whole thing. The price fluctuations in Bitcoin are in line with human psychology and emotion so I find this to be quite fitting for what we are seeing. Trend-line breaks are great, but they usually work best on the last wave of a correction. When it comes down to it all you can be the judge of all this once we see price unfold. Don't forget that XLM still has to make another low, how do you think it will get there? Lately I have been questioning everything because I see a lot of emotion in people lately. If Wave E happens to extend lower then what is mentioned in this video, that may also cause confusion. All we can do is be on the lookout for more clues along the way. Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd? Just remember: I am not a financial adviser; I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research. ***AriasWave is not the same as Elliott Wave so your counts may differ to mine if you happen to use it.***
BNC:BLX
by AriasWave