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Short Term - Navigating Potential Correction and Managing RiskOver the weekend, I've been analyzing Bitcoin's performance, seeking to determine its next market move. Similar to my view on the S&P 500, I believe that Bitcoin is due for a correction in the near future. It's possible that we could see a spike to $30,600 or even slightly above before experiencing a larger rejection. This level represents an equality target based on my wave analysis. While it would be an extended move, I'd assign it a 40% probability of reaching that high. If Bitcoin does approach $30,000, be prepared for a swift spike, as numerous stop losses could be triggered at that level. Following a rejection, we can expect Bitcoin to revisit the 200-week moving average, currently around $25,000. It's not unusual for price action to oscillate around this crucial indicator. A drop from even our current levels to $25,000 represents a $2,500 move or roughly a 10% decline. While entering high-leverage short positions on Bitcoin futures or perpetual swaps might be tempting, it's essential to manage risk wisely. I personally liquidated (note: sold to cash) a portion of my BTC holdings at $28,000 last week and plan to wait for a significant pullback before re-entering the market with those funds. As for the much-anticipated altcoin season, exercise caution and consider reducing risk in this area as well. It might be prudent to take some profits now and look for re-entry opportunities when Bitcoin eventually corrects. Remember, market conditions can change rapidly, and it's essential to have a well-thought-out strategy in place. The current Bitcoin market outlook suggests a potential correction in the near future. As always, it's crucial to manage risk and avoid overexposure in high-leverage positions. Keep a close eye on market movements and technical indicators, and make informed decisions based on your own research and analysis. Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
BNC:BLX
by bitdoctor
AW Bitcoin Analysis - Getting Closer To The Preferred Count...As always, I aim to improve my analysis of Bitcoin because if I am not producing better ideas then I am not doing my job. You can see the chart for this idea linked down below in related ideas. By now I have dissected and cross examined this chart more times than I can count. Let's get one thing straight, Bitcoin has not ever seen a GFC so assuming that it won't actually correct properly during a crisis is probably going to cost you dearly. The news is cat ship wrapped in dog ship, so believing that Bitcoin is performing well because of some silly media BS is only setting you up for failure. Besides, don't people often say that the FED never lets the market correct properly? Why wouldn't you want cryptos to correct properly? One thing Bitcoin has never done is correct properly so if you want it to go higher then you will understand why this is important. Does this offer people a chance to get in at a much lower price? You better believe it, and I want to help you get in cheaper because when the whole space finally moves up, you will be better off for it. Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd? Just remember: I am not a financial adviser; I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research. ***AriasWave is not the same as Elliott Wave so your counts may differ to mine if you happen to use it.***
BNC:BLX
by AriasWave
1
AW Bitcoin Analysis - IS SHTF For Bitcoin? Old Count Modified...The truth is that my old count modified For Blue Wave 4 makes a lot of sense when looked at this way. Why? Because if I was counting this move up as a Weak 5-Wave move, the problem is that Waves 4, 2 and 1 are not overlapping. Therefore, it cannot really be classified as an official Weak 5-Wave move. Duh! But also, look what happens when I run a trend-line from the previous 2 Wave 4's... Price has been interacting with this particular trend-line recently which might help explain the price action at the lows right now. Something about the crazy insane mania I have seen lately piqued my curiosity and I just had to try out this combination of analysis. It seems plausible therefore I will head in this direction because it makes sense to do so. I have also been making progress with the move down since all-time-highs which might help explain what we are seeing now. Could the SHTF for the original crypto afterall? Could we really be in Wave 2 of a larger unfolding trend right now? I will do my best to answer these questions very soon. Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd? Just remember: I am not a financial adviser; I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research. ***AriasWave is not the same as Elliott Wave so your counts may differ to mine if you happen to use it.***
BNC:BLX
by AriasWave
AW Bitcoin Analysis - The Current Wave D In More Detail...This video is a continuation of the previous idea where I discuss the larger pattern. (Linked Below) I also give you price estimations which can vary depending on where Wave E ends. Wave D is really good at faking people out, so this is why I am going so deep on this whole thing. The price fluctuations in Bitcoin are in line with human psychology and emotion so I find this to be quite fitting for what we are seeing. Trend-line breaks are great, but they usually work best on the last wave of a correction. When it comes down to it all you can be the judge of all this once we see price unfold. Don't forget that XLM still has to make another low, how do you think it will get there? Lately I have been questioning everything because I see a lot of emotion in people lately. If Wave E happens to extend lower then what is mentioned in this video, that may also cause confusion. All we can do is be on the lookout for more clues along the way. Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd? Just remember: I am not a financial adviser; I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research. ***AriasWave is not the same as Elliott Wave so your counts may differ to mine if you happen to use it.***
BNC:BLX
by AriasWave
Cyclical Nature of BitcoinToday, we'll take an in-depth look at Bitcoin and examine where we could be headed over the next few months. The chart before you is crystal clear: we are in the midst of a repeating cycle. Regardless of how bad the news may be, or how much global conflict or financial turmoil escalates, all that matters is the chart. The chart speaks volumes: Bitcoin came back to the green zone in this model in precisely the same time as the last cycle: 364 days. Refer to this TA for more information on that: So we hit the green zone, we've bounced out of it, hovering just above it, as we did in 2019. With last week's weekly close, we've broken the 0.25 Fibonacci fan, just as we did in 2019. So, unless we do something that changes the mirror fractal, we will continue to stick to the view that this relief rally is just getting started. In 2019, it took us 56 days from the time we broke the 0.25 Fibonacci Fan to reach the relief rally top. If the same pattern holds, the week of April 10th, 2023, would signal the top, and we could go as high as $48k. Anywhere between $35-48k would be the topping zone. Somewhere within this yellow circle, around this time, would be the perfect topping signal for Bitcoin. However, things never go as planned, so we could top out as early as $35k. Why $35k? Well, the highest CME gap currently sits at $35k, with the 0.382 Fibonacci Fib. This is an area that I'll be paying close attention to because it's very possible that Bitcoin will close the gap and top out for the year at this level. If we zoom into the daily in 2019, we can see that we created an ascending channel coming out of capitulation. We have done precisely the same thing this cycle so far, but we will go one step further here. This chart shows the Pearson correlation coefficient, demonstrating decoupling from the SPX500 vs. Bitcoin. When we dig in, we see that, in fact, Bitcoin decouples from the stock around precisely the same time during this ascending channel in 2019. The negative correlation lasts for a significant chunk of the relief rally, as you can see. Very interesting. Here we can see that during that period, the Dow Jones dropped 7.59%, while Bitcoin rallied 78%. It's essential to note that even though Bitcoin has become increasingly more correlated over the years as it matures, there are still pockets of the cycle where there is negative correlation. Bitcoin has been performing consistently within the same bands as it did in 2019, a fact that remains true since the publication of the TA above from eight months ago. This post, published during the bear market, was met with skepticism and laughter from traders who claimed that the "MACRO ENVIRONMENT" would prevent the predicted outcome. However, the theory, vision, and analysis presented in the post remains valid and unchanged to this day. By removing the noise and emotions surrounding human behavior, we can stick to the chart and better predict market trends. Mayer Multiple Bands Bitcoin still playing within the same bands as 2019 perfectly . Of course, there's always a possibility that I am wrong. What if we're not going to have a relief rally, and this is the top? The invalidation level is always present, and nothing is ever 100% guaranteed. Looking at the fractal pattern that emerged during the 2015 bear market, we can see that history could repeat itself. While anything is possible, including a black swan event that could bring the market down in a week, I think the odds of this fractal pattern playing out are low, at around 10%. In every cycle, Bitcoin puts in a "marco double bottom." Even in 2011, Bitcoin put in a double bottom. Having cash on hand for when those two bottoms hit is essential. I believe we have only had one bottom, and while some analyses bet on the FTX black swan being the second bottom, I disagree. After the COVID crash in March 2020, I spent countless hours trying to predict when the next Bitcoin crash would occur. I was off by two weeks when I published my analysis in January 2022, but we did get the first cycle bottom around the end of May 2022. The only constant pattern we have is that Bitcoin puts in the second double bottom before the next halving, which is scheduled for April 2024. The average length from the second double bottom to halving is 256 days, and according to my analysis, sometime between July 24th, 2022, and April 2024, we're likely to get Bitcoin's double bottom, which would bring the price down to at least test the first bottom lows at $15k. My Bitcoin model predicted the pico bottom of the COVID crash in 2020, and if it follows the same pattern, the latest low band of the model will be retesting $15k is April 2024, which is the same month as the halving. Keep in mind that these are projected lines for this model, and if anyone is a coder who can add projected dash lines to the model, please DM me on TradingView. Another possible outcome for the double bottom of Bitcoin could be a crash as early as July 2023. As long as Bitcoin stays within this ascending channel, we have the potential to push much higher. However, if we break out of the channel and close below it on a daily timeframe, the chances of the 2015 fractal playing out become much higher.
BNC:BLX
by Sporia
8
HOW QUANTITATIVE TIGHTENING AND HALVING AFFECT BITCOINDear Traders, An update on my previous chart, as the overall cycle broke down, also note that we may not get a large Christmas Rally as we have in the past, but the chart shows there is potential. Here is the explanation of the break down on a pattern I have noticed between QUANTITATIVE TIGHTENING and the BITCOIN HALVING (HALVENING) CYCLE. Quantitative Tightening is basically a way of cutting the money supply to the economy by increasing interest rates, usually to curve inflation. Usually, after 18 months of interest rate rises, inflation eases the market cash flow returns. As shown in the chart, the BITCOIN cycle from havlening to bull run is approx 18-24months followed by QT 5-6 months later with 6-12months bear market then the cycle repeats. DAY 0 - HALVENING then 18-24 months of BULL MARKET around the 30 months mark QUANTITIVE TIGHTENING FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY BEAR MARKET 48 months (4 years) NEXT HALVENING CYCLE REPEATS At the bottom of the Market, there is also usually some type of BLACK SWAN EVENT. January 2015 GREECE, CHINA CRISIS, OIL hit 11-year lows, the world shaken by Paris terrorist attacks. December 2018 USA Trade war with China, FAANG under scrutiny MARCH 2020 CORONAVIRUS MARCH-MAY 2023? Potential Factors - CHINA Economic Crash, US/China War over Taiwan, Death of UK Queen. Thanks for Reading and please let me know your thoughts <3 Lisa
BNC:BLX
by LisaNEdwards
16
Inception Wave Count - And the start of a new Bull Cycle.So after going over BTC inception data I've come to the conclusion that this is the correct wave count, I'm of the belief that BTC has already made it's cycle bottom and we're early stages of a new Bull Cycle which will last many years, These 5 waves up all complete a larger degree wave 1 and the correction we've had will be wave 2 of a larger degree (providing the bottom is in) - if this is correct we're in a wave 3 of larger degree.
BNC:BLXLong
by Swoop6
1