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Bitcoin Liquid Index

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End of An EraBitcoin was born in 2009 in a 0-interest rate environment. This extremely speculative environment allowed assets like bitcoin to make crazy gains as loose monetary policy following the 2008 financial crisis gave everyone free cash to over-inflate asset valuations. Interest rates are no longer at 0 and are only climbing higher. This shakes the underlying foundation of speculative markets like bitcoin that enabled this crazy growth in the first place. In 2022 when the feds hiked interest rates aggressively for the first time in bitcoins lifetime, bitcoin dumped 75% in a single year. This was only a small taste of how the feds can affect these speculative markets and as they hike rates higher and higher Bitcoin will only aggressively dump more. I think 5k-20k is a fair value range for Bitcoin. Also there is a massive double top.
BNC:BLXShort
by stingray_0
Is it true that $BTC correlates with M2? Spoiler alert: not real 🗣In the last month, I have seen a hyper-fixation on the correlation of M2 with Bitcoin, as in red analysis with predictions such as a failure under 60K in February. I don't entirely agree with this analysis. 📍First, most of the analyses I have seen show such a correlation only for the last year (black frame). Do you know why? Because in previous years, the correlations were many times smaller, and you cannot make such good matches. 📍Second, you can look at the white square. There is not too much logic in Bitcoin perfectly following the outdated money metric. In 2022, Bitcoin fell from 50K to 20K while M2 continued to grow, a three-month lead there does not really fit. 💡To sum up, M2 sometimes correlates with Bitcoin, but it is not often, and the 3-month shift is nothing more than a convenient data fit. You need to look at the big picture and not fall in love with one model or metric.
BNC:BLX
by FeelsStrategy
Next PI Cycle Top and BottomApproximately every four years, we observe a PI Cycle Top, and similarly, every four years, we see a PI Cycle Bottom. This means there is roughly a two-year gap between the PI Cycle Top and Bottom. Based on historical data, the next PI Cycle Top, expected in 2025, will likely fall between $130K and $160K. Following this peak, we can anticipate around two years before reaching the next PI Cycle Bottom. Historically, the PI Cycle Bottom tends to align closely with the previous cycle's Top, which would place it in the range of $58K to $68K. However, it's important to note that these are not fixed predictions but rather a brief analysis based on historical trends.
BNC:BLX
by seoco
2
All you need for Bitcoin to see top, bottom or a crash.These charts show everything you will ever need to buy and sell Bitcoin. 5 day BTC chart.(right chart) Orange vertical lines on chart show when the RSI touches the pink horizontal line after it touches the top red horizontal line. This indicates a bear market. Yellow vertical lines on chart show when RSI rose above orange line after touching the blue line but failed to touch the red horizontal line before hitting the pink horizontal line. This indicates a crash is coming. The green arrows on chart show whenever the blue EMA8 goes below the yellow MA55 after being above it. This indicates either BTC has entered a bear market or a crash like setup similar to covid. If we get another green arrow you will know what to do as it will be a crash or bear market. The green trendlines on chart show each bull run Bitcoin touches this trendline 3 times or more before it has a parabolic move. The anamoly being the covid crash. So far this bull run it is only twice that Bitcoin has touched the green trendline. On the LMACD the green vertical lines show everytime the 5day LMACD crosses down (blue LMACD line going under orange LMACD line) when it is above the horizontal yellow line. This has happened 21 times with only 1 time (red vertical line) where price did not drop to the EMA21 (orange moving average line) on the chart. BTC just did this cross on LMACD so it has a 95% chance of moving down to touch the orange EMA21. Based off all this clear evidence it is easy to see that you sell Bitcoin when RSI hits red horizontal line. Confirmation of bear market is as per indicators mentioned above. You buy when RSI touches blue horizontal line. You won't sell the exact top or buy the exact bottom but very close to it. You would need a different chart to calculate the exact top. This chart will stand the test of time if history keeps rhyming for Bitcoin. Monthly BTC chart.(left chart) On the monthly chart the orange vertical lines indicate whenever the Stoch RSI went above the green horizontal line. The yellow vertical line on the chart shows the covid crash as the Stoch RSI did not stay above the green horizontal line for very long. The green arrow on the Stoch RSI shows when it fell straight through the red horizontal line after being above the green horizontal line. This indicated a bear market. The pink arrows on the Stoch RSI show the crossover of the Stoch RSI (blue RSI line crosses under orange RSI line) after it fell below the green horizontal line and bounced off the blue or red horizontal lines. This indicated the top and a bear market. After seeing this current information on the Stoch RSI (bounce off blue line) it looks like the upcoming crossover will be a pink arrow. These arrows indicate time to exit the market as you can see.
BNC:BLX
by Pro_Trader_HTBB
Will Bitcoin Push BLX to New Heights? Analyzing Market Cycles anHI traders Bitcoin has the power to shape the future, and as BLX follows its path, understanding the emotional market cycles becomes key to navigating its potential. In this analysis, we’ll explore the relationship between Bitcoin's movements and the psychological phases of the market cycle. From the initial optimism that drives the first wave of buying, to the euphoria when prices surge to new highs, and then the inevitable anxiety as market sentiment begins to shift. Fear sets in during the panic phase, leading to widespread selling, followed by despair, where most investors exit the market. However, this is followed by hope as the market stabilizes and slowly recovers. Understanding how these emotional shifts influence BLX and Bitcoin will help you spot opportunities, manage risk, and position yourself for success as the market moves through its cyclical nature. The key is not just predicting the market, but mastering your emotions to thrive in any phase.
BNC:BLXEducation
by hamidTrader21
How Does Market Psychology Shape BLX's Price Movements?Hi traders "How the Psychology of Market Cycles Influences BLX" The Psychology of a Market Cycle refers to the emotional and behavioral phases investors and traders experience as markets move through different stages, from optimism during bull markets to fear and despair during downturns. Understanding these psychological patterns is crucial for making informed decisions and avoiding common pitfalls. Market cycles are deeply intertwined with investor psychology, and their impact is clearly reflected in indices like BLX, which tracks Bitcoin’s price performance. The emotional phases of optimism, fear, and recovery that characterize market cycles shape the trajectory of BLX in profound ways. Bull Markets and Euphoria: In the optimistic and euphoric stages, BLX often experiences significant upward momentum as confidence and greed drive speculative buying. The "fear of missing out" (FOMO) accelerates the rise, pushing BLX to new highs. Bear Markets and Panic: When anxiety and denial give way to fear and capitulation, BLX faces sharp declines. Investors overwhelmed by negative sentiment sell off assets, leading to steep corrections in the index. Recovery and Hope: As despair subsides and hope emerges, BLX starts to stabilize and climb, driven by early adopters and institutional interest. This phase lays the groundwork for the next market cycle. Understanding the psychological dynamics behind market cycles can help traders and investors navigate BLX’s fluctuations, make informed decisions, and avoid being swayed by emotional reactions.
BNC:BLXEducation
by hamidTrader21
The holy grail of BTC price prediction is global money supply.While nothing is perfect, the movement of global money supply this cycle has forecasted bitcoin price movements exceptionally well. Previous cycles, money supply more overlapped than predicted, except when the 2020 massive increase in money supply led BTC price higher. The lag between global money supply highs and lows and BTC highs and lows this cycle has been 10-weeks (actually 72 days give or take) for almost all major BTC price movements. I estimate this treatment missed only one BTC price movement. If this holds, we have the key to knowing BTC's price movements. Can we see into the future using global money supply indicator by SirChub to predict the BTC price? Only time will tell. If correct, we will go on a nice uptrend in price until December 2-6 or so, then see a pullback. P.S. I only added the bars pattern for a bit of fun, but did take the bars from the last time the money supply increased in a similar manner. It does make sense that we would find our next high near $100K ...and I like spreading hopium. Much more fun than spreading bear poo...and bonus: my hands don't smell like crap afterwards.
BNC:BLXLong
by Da_Prof
3
Bitcoin - Sell in March and Go Away?Let me begin with a caveat: a sample size of five is hardly enough to be statistically accurate. Regardless, this cycle analysis aligns with my Gann analysis and the Primary EW count. My thesis is that Bitcoin will make a long-term top by March or April 2025, followed by a severe downtrend. Supporting Evidence: Cycle crests. Since 2021, Bitcoin has made significant tops in March, followed by a 12W or more downtrend. Primary EW Count: According to the primary EW count, beginning in November 2021, Bitcoin is in the final stage of completing primary wave 5. This estimate relates to the price axis. It is common practice to estimate the time of a fifth wave as the 1.272 extension of the fourth wave. According to this measure, the fifth wave could be completed as early as February 2025. Gann Analysis: Throughout the current uptrend, Bitcoin’s price traded almost exclusively within the bounds of the 2/1 Gann angle support and the 1/1 Gan angle resistance. Even if completing the primary fifth wave leads to a substantial correction of more than 40%, as long as Bitcoin holds the 2/1 support, it is enough to support continuation in an overshooting wave B to the final blow-off top in October/November 2025, in line with the 4Y cycle. Best wishes
BNC:BLX
by NewThoughtCrypto
The ₿itcoin Strategic Playbook: Timing Crypto Market CyclesWhy 4 Years Matters: The Confluence of Cycles Markets move in cycles: periods of growth and contraction, driven by psychology, supply/demand, and macroeconomic forces. Two major cycles intersect in the cryptocurrency market: Bitcoin Halving Cycle: A predictable event every 4 years, reducing Bitcoin's supply. Historically, prices surge in the months following. US Election Cycle: Presidential elections occur every 4 years, influencing fiscal policy, monetary policy, and investor sentiment. The strategy leverages the intersection of these cycles for precision timing. Interplay Between Cycles Historically, Bitcoin halving’s and US elections have occurred in the same year, creating a "perfect storm" for market volatility and opportunity. Example: The 2020 halving coincided with the US election, followed by a historic bull market. This alignment reflects how macroeconomic events can amplify crypto trends, rather than being purely coincidental. Fundamentals Behind the Halving Cycle What is Bitcoin Halving? Bitcoin halving reduces the block reward miners receive by half, occurring approximately every 210,000 blocks (~4 years). This built-in scarcity impacts Bitcoin’s supply, historically leading to price increases post-halving. Why It Matters Historical Trends: 2012: Halving triggered a bull run peaking in 2013. 2016: Halving triggered the 2017 bull market. 2020: Halving led to the 2021 price surge. Each halving decreases new Bitcoin supply while demand continues to grow. Altcoins: Following Bitcoin's Lead Bitcoin’s dominance often peaks post-halving as it leads the market rally. During the bull phase, altcoins typically follow Bitcoin's lead, offering higher growth potential. The Role of Elections Macroeconomic Impacts Election years bring uncertainty about future policies, creating market volatility. Policies on inflation, interest rates, and technology affect both traditional and crypto markets. Why It Aligns with the Halving The convergence of halving-induced optimism and election-driven uncertainty amplifies market movements. Example: 2020 saw the halving, COVID-19 stimulus, and election uncertainty, setting the stage for Bitcoin’s explosive growth. How the Strategy Plays Out Start at the Bottom (Accumulation): Look for signs of market capitulation (e.g., extreme fear in sentiment indices, low volume, prolonged price stagnation). Use indicators like RSI divergence to identify oversold conditions. Build positions gradually, focusing on projects with solid fundamentals. Ride the Markup Phase (Bull): Hold positions as prices rise, following the trend. Adjust exposure based on market conditions but avoid selling too early. Exit at the Top (Distribution): Watch for euphoric sentiment (e.g., excessive media coverage, speculative mania). Use tools like Fibonacci extensions, volume analysis, or the Fear & Greed Index to identify when to take profits. Survive the Markdown Phase (Bear): Avoid buying into dips during the crash. Preserve capital for the next accumulation phase. Source: Bitcoin Liquid Index: BNC:BLX
BNC:BLX
by azad.motala
BTC Shakeout. Next Step Is AltseasonIt looks like the market is shaking off weak participants who aren’t prepared for the volatility. Many altcoins have partially or completely erased the gains they made over the past few months. There’s not much room left for further declines unless we see new local lows, which doesn’t seem logical at this stage. As Bitcoin approached the 100K level, sellers quickly stepped in. On the daily chart, a long wick candle formed — a signal that this area could see future price consolidation. It would make sense for the price to stay in a range, with potential dips to 92K, over the next 1-3 weeks. This would likely scare off any remaining holders who survived the last correction, setting the stage for the next big move. Timing-wise, everything seems to align perfectly. However, the behavior of #BTC.D (Bitcoin dominance) is a bit concerning. In previous cycles, Bitcoin dominance tended to drop during corrections, but in this cycle, it’s rising. This divergence calls for closer attention.
BNC:BLXLong
by A1ex_Crypto
Cycle Top Indicator [CTI] | Deep Dive AnalysisIn this post we will look at some of the long-term trends identified with the tracking of the CTI indicator (Red and Green Moving averages in the price chart), and what we can learn from the observed behaviors over Cycle 1 / 2 / 3 and possible implications for Cycle 4. INDICATOR RECAP The CTI indicator attempts to model the cycle top based on observed historic price over extension from Cycle 1 / 2. Indicator marks a cycle top when the 'Fast MA' (Red Line) crosses above the 'Slow MA' (Green Line). I.e. the condition where both MAs price value is equal. I should be noted that this condition was achieve for every cycle to date so far, and that the condition was met twice for the experienced 'double peak top' in Cycle 1 but was only met for the first of the two peak tops during Cycle 3. OSCILLATOR: % DISTANCE MODELLED BETWEEN SLOW (GREEN MA) & FAST (RED MA) – NORMALISED TO PRICE The below oscillator models the %Distance away from each other the Green Line and the Red line gets over BTC's cycles (Normalised to Price). * RED HORIZONTAL LINE: When the oscillator is equal to 1, this models the price value of the Green and Red moving averages as equal (or the CTI cycle top condition) * ORANGE HORIZONTAL LINE(s): These mark the maximum over extension the Red MA exceeded the Green MA during a cycle top condition. * GREEN HORIZONTAL LINE(s): These mark low levels of the oscillator, indicator maximum distance of the Red MA below the Green MA during each cycle. BLACK SLOPING TREND LINE(s): Represent the diminishing trend of overlap between the Green and Red Mas each cycle. * VERTICAL RED AND GREEN LINES: Show cycle tops and bottoms as triggered by the CTI and CBI (Cycle Bottom Indicators) – NOTE: CBI moving averages not shown. SIGNIFICANCE OF ORANGE HORIZONTAL & BLACK TREND LINES It is observable that each peak of the Oscillator is lower than the previous cycle peak (each peak is marked with an Orange horizontal line). This diminishing trend is shown with each orange line marked lower than the line before, and modeled with the Black downward sloping trend line(s) connecting the peaks. A reminder that the Red Horizontal line shows the condition with the CTI models the cycle top and conditions above the Red Horizontal line show the % distance the Red MA reaches above the Green MA each cycle. For example: * Cycle 1 Peak = 1.58 * Cycle 2 First peak = 1.25 * Cycle 2 Second peak = 1.20 * Cycle 3 First peak = 1.07 The diminishing trend of this relationship over each cycle (if historic behavior continues) suggest that the CTI overlap condition for cycle 4 my not eventuate. This would be modeled by our oscillator not exceeding the red line in Cycle 4. The learnings for this analysis could suggest that waiting for the CTI indicator to Fire may result in a non-event for Cycle 4. SIGNIFICANCE OF GREEN HORIZONTAL LINES A surprising finding from this analysis show for all cycles to date that when the modeled oscillator reaches levels between -1.11 and -1.82 and particularly for Cycles 2 / 3 & 4 between -1.50 & -1.82 (Red MA % distance below the Grean MA), Historically BTC has found its cycle bottom. These findings are summarized below for quick reference. * CYCLE 1-4 Bottom Oscillator Condition: -1.11 <> -1.82 * CYCLE 2-4 Bottom Oscillator Condition: -1.50 <> -1.82 Feel free to include any other observations I may have missed in the comments below. i intend to do a similar analysis for the CBI indicator when I find the time.
BNC:BLX
by Brodie
Bitcoin Log Regression 👀#Bitcoin Log Regression 👀 The orange line, as in the previous cycle, offers strong resistance. 💡I think CRYPTOCAP:BTC will stay at the current mark for another month. After that, we go to the correction, most likely it will not be a deep correction, but rather a consolidation. This is indicated by overbought and seasonality. ⛏️ And also the capitulation of miners after the halving is possible, this will lead to a decrease in the hashrate, which will slow down the growth for some time. But do not be sad, the bull market will continue closer to autumn↗️
BNC:BLX
by FeelsStrategy