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Bitcoin Liquid Index

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The holy grail of BTC price prediction is global money supply.While nothing is perfect, the movement of global money supply this cycle has forecasted bitcoin price movements exceptionally well. Previous cycles, money supply more overlapped than predicted, except when the 2020 massive increase in money supply led BTC price higher. The lag between global money supply highs and lows and BTC highs and lows this cycle has been 10-weeks (actually 72 days give or take) for almost all major BTC price movements. I estimate this treatment missed only one BTC price movement. If this holds, we have the key to knowing BTC's price movements. Can we see into the future using global money supply indicator by SirChub to predict the BTC price? Only time will tell. If correct, we will go on a nice uptrend in price until December 2-6 or so, then see a pullback. P.S. I only added the bars pattern for a bit of fun, but did take the bars from the last time the money supply increased in a similar manner. It does make sense that we would find our next high near $100K ...and I like spreading hopium. Much more fun than spreading bear poo...and bonus: my hands don't smell like crap afterwards.
BNC:BLXLong
by Da_Prof
3
Bitcoin - Sell in March and Go Away?Let me begin with a caveat: a sample size of five is hardly enough to be statistically accurate. Regardless, this cycle analysis aligns with my Gann analysis and the Primary EW count. My thesis is that Bitcoin will make a long-term top by March or April 2025, followed by a severe downtrend. Supporting Evidence: Cycle crests. Since 2021, Bitcoin has made significant tops in March, followed by a 12W or more downtrend. Primary EW Count: According to the primary EW count, beginning in November 2021, Bitcoin is in the final stage of completing primary wave 5. This estimate relates to the price axis. It is common practice to estimate the time of a fifth wave as the 1.272 extension of the fourth wave. According to this measure, the fifth wave could be completed as early as February 2025. Gann Analysis: Throughout the current uptrend, Bitcoin’s price traded almost exclusively within the bounds of the 2/1 Gann angle support and the 1/1 Gan angle resistance. Even if completing the primary fifth wave leads to a substantial correction of more than 40%, as long as Bitcoin holds the 2/1 support, it is enough to support continuation in an overshooting wave B to the final blow-off top in October/November 2025, in line with the 4Y cycle. Best wishes
BNC:BLX
by NewThoughtCrypto
The ₿itcoin Strategic Playbook: Timing Crypto Market CyclesWhy 4 Years Matters: The Confluence of Cycles Markets move in cycles: periods of growth and contraction, driven by psychology, supply/demand, and macroeconomic forces. Two major cycles intersect in the cryptocurrency market: Bitcoin Halving Cycle: A predictable event every 4 years, reducing Bitcoin's supply. Historically, prices surge in the months following. US Election Cycle: Presidential elections occur every 4 years, influencing fiscal policy, monetary policy, and investor sentiment. The strategy leverages the intersection of these cycles for precision timing. Interplay Between Cycles Historically, Bitcoin halving’s and US elections have occurred in the same year, creating a "perfect storm" for market volatility and opportunity. Example: The 2020 halving coincided with the US election, followed by a historic bull market. This alignment reflects how macroeconomic events can amplify crypto trends, rather than being purely coincidental. Fundamentals Behind the Halving Cycle What is Bitcoin Halving? Bitcoin halving reduces the block reward miners receive by half, occurring approximately every 210,000 blocks (~4 years). This built-in scarcity impacts Bitcoin’s supply, historically leading to price increases post-halving. Why It Matters Historical Trends: 2012: Halving triggered a bull run peaking in 2013. 2016: Halving triggered the 2017 bull market. 2020: Halving led to the 2021 price surge. Each halving decreases new Bitcoin supply while demand continues to grow. Altcoins: Following Bitcoin's Lead Bitcoin’s dominance often peaks post-halving as it leads the market rally. During the bull phase, altcoins typically follow Bitcoin's lead, offering higher growth potential. The Role of Elections Macroeconomic Impacts Election years bring uncertainty about future policies, creating market volatility. Policies on inflation, interest rates, and technology affect both traditional and crypto markets. Why It Aligns with the Halving The convergence of halving-induced optimism and election-driven uncertainty amplifies market movements. Example: 2020 saw the halving, COVID-19 stimulus, and election uncertainty, setting the stage for Bitcoin’s explosive growth. How the Strategy Plays Out Start at the Bottom (Accumulation): Look for signs of market capitulation (e.g., extreme fear in sentiment indices, low volume, prolonged price stagnation). Use indicators like RSI divergence to identify oversold conditions. Build positions gradually, focusing on projects with solid fundamentals. Ride the Markup Phase (Bull): Hold positions as prices rise, following the trend. Adjust exposure based on market conditions but avoid selling too early. Exit at the Top (Distribution): Watch for euphoric sentiment (e.g., excessive media coverage, speculative mania). Use tools like Fibonacci extensions, volume analysis, or the Fear & Greed Index to identify when to take profits. Survive the Markdown Phase (Bear): Avoid buying into dips during the crash. Preserve capital for the next accumulation phase. Source: Bitcoin Liquid Index: BNC:BLX
BNC:BLX
by azad.motala
BTC Shakeout. Next Step Is AltseasonIt looks like the market is shaking off weak participants who aren’t prepared for the volatility. Many altcoins have partially or completely erased the gains they made over the past few months. There’s not much room left for further declines unless we see new local lows, which doesn’t seem logical at this stage. As Bitcoin approached the 100K level, sellers quickly stepped in. On the daily chart, a long wick candle formed — a signal that this area could see future price consolidation. It would make sense for the price to stay in a range, with potential dips to 92K, over the next 1-3 weeks. This would likely scare off any remaining holders who survived the last correction, setting the stage for the next big move. Timing-wise, everything seems to align perfectly. However, the behavior of #BTC.D (Bitcoin dominance) is a bit concerning. In previous cycles, Bitcoin dominance tended to drop during corrections, but in this cycle, it’s rising. This divergence calls for closer attention.
BNC:BLXLong
by A1ex_Crypto
Cycle Top Indicator [CTI] | Deep Dive AnalysisIn this post we will look at some of the long-term trends identified with the tracking of the CTI indicator (Red and Green Moving averages in the price chart), and what we can learn from the observed behaviors over Cycle 1 / 2 / 3 and possible implications for Cycle 4. INDICATOR RECAP The CTI indicator attempts to model the cycle top based on observed historic price over extension from Cycle 1 / 2. Indicator marks a cycle top when the 'Fast MA' (Red Line) crosses above the 'Slow MA' (Green Line). I.e. the condition where both MAs price value is equal. I should be noted that this condition was achieve for every cycle to date so far, and that the condition was met twice for the experienced 'double peak top' in Cycle 1 but was only met for the first of the two peak tops during Cycle 3. OSCILLATOR: % DISTANCE MODELLED BETWEEN SLOW (GREEN MA) & FAST (RED MA) – NORMALISED TO PRICE The below oscillator models the %Distance away from each other the Green Line and the Red line gets over BTC's cycles (Normalised to Price). * RED HORIZONTAL LINE: When the oscillator is equal to 1, this models the price value of the Green and Red moving averages as equal (or the CTI cycle top condition) * ORANGE HORIZONTAL LINE(s): These mark the maximum over extension the Red MA exceeded the Green MA during a cycle top condition. * GREEN HORIZONTAL LINE(s): These mark low levels of the oscillator, indicator maximum distance of the Red MA below the Green MA during each cycle. BLACK SLOPING TREND LINE(s): Represent the diminishing trend of overlap between the Green and Red Mas each cycle. * VERTICAL RED AND GREEN LINES: Show cycle tops and bottoms as triggered by the CTI and CBI (Cycle Bottom Indicators) – NOTE: CBI moving averages not shown. SIGNIFICANCE OF ORANGE HORIZONTAL & BLACK TREND LINES It is observable that each peak of the Oscillator is lower than the previous cycle peak (each peak is marked with an Orange horizontal line). This diminishing trend is shown with each orange line marked lower than the line before, and modeled with the Black downward sloping trend line(s) connecting the peaks. A reminder that the Red Horizontal line shows the condition with the CTI models the cycle top and conditions above the Red Horizontal line show the % distance the Red MA reaches above the Green MA each cycle. For example: * Cycle 1 Peak = 1.58 * Cycle 2 First peak = 1.25 * Cycle 2 Second peak = 1.20 * Cycle 3 First peak = 1.07 The diminishing trend of this relationship over each cycle (if historic behavior continues) suggest that the CTI overlap condition for cycle 4 my not eventuate. This would be modeled by our oscillator not exceeding the red line in Cycle 4. The learnings for this analysis could suggest that waiting for the CTI indicator to Fire may result in a non-event for Cycle 4. SIGNIFICANCE OF GREEN HORIZONTAL LINES A surprising finding from this analysis show for all cycles to date that when the modeled oscillator reaches levels between -1.11 and -1.82 and particularly for Cycles 2 / 3 & 4 between -1.50 & -1.82 (Red MA % distance below the Grean MA), Historically BTC has found its cycle bottom. These findings are summarized below for quick reference. * CYCLE 1-4 Bottom Oscillator Condition: -1.11 <> -1.82 * CYCLE 2-4 Bottom Oscillator Condition: -1.50 <> -1.82 Feel free to include any other observations I may have missed in the comments below. i intend to do a similar analysis for the CBI indicator when I find the time.
BNC:BLX
by Brodie
Bitcoin Log Regression 👀#Bitcoin Log Regression 👀 The orange line, as in the previous cycle, offers strong resistance. 💡I think CRYPTOCAP:BTC will stay at the current mark for another month. After that, we go to the correction, most likely it will not be a deep correction, but rather a consolidation. This is indicated by overbought and seasonality. ⛏️ And also the capitulation of miners after the halving is possible, this will lead to a decrease in the hashrate, which will slow down the growth for some time. But do not be sad, the bull market will continue closer to autumn↗️
BNC:BLX
by FeelsStrategy
BTC/USD Halving 518 When will be the cycle price low and high.Main trend. Time frame 1 month. This idea is almost a clone (in meaning, not visualization) of my previous idea published 1.3 years ago: BTC/USD Secondary trend cycles and halvings. For great visualization and clarity I added leap years (pre-pump, pre-distribution), this applies to all markets, not just the “young” cryptocurrency market... That is, after it, just the price is in the zone of distribution (sales), which is identical with the price highs of the secondary trend. Bitcoin cycle 4 years: Year 1 - birth of a new bullish trend (leap year). By the way the next year 2024 is exactly like that. But, read carefully to understand the point. For some time the price moves sideways or with a small rise. Positive/negative alternates. Negative dominates. There is no interest in the crypto market. The traffic of stupid money is minimal. The volatility of the price of instruments is usually minimal. This phase of the market is also called "participation" (more relevant to the second part). In the final phase—active movement to the distribution zone (the zone of sales by large market participants—small). In a given year (or near this time zone in the previous year), there is typically a second dump (second price low) with more aggressive dynamics by a large %. Dump -60.66% 03 2020. On the chart as an example of past dump at -60.66% (magnet) at the start of Corona 03 2020 (taking advantage of the world situation) before pumping the market in the future. Always keep this kind of thing in mind and be prepared for it, even if you are sure it is unlikely. Observe mani management. Training idea/work 02 2020: Trading by trends and important areas using the example of BTC Something like a big triangle like 2020 is forming now. BTC/USD Main trend (3 years) Channels Triangle 09 2023 Altcoins in this time zone cycle . Altcoins tend to be in their accumulation channels. Alternately, from time to time, some are “firing” (usually of lower liquidity). Some produce “takeouts” under the dial zones. The essence of this time zone for alts is to gain as much as possible % of positions from the market. The price is not important (the average price of a set is taken into account), alts typically follow the general market trend, which is logical and tactful from the position of long-term prospects of earning in cycles. Year 2 - Bull Market. Trend price maximum and distribution zone . Resetting positions by large market participants. That is, the smart money sells to the dumb at the market high. The 17 weeks post-halving ( 518 days, gematria ) zone of perfect selling in crypto asset allocation. Roughly speaking it's a zone near price highs, at least that's always been the case in past cycles of bitcoin and the crypto market as a projection of it. Altcoins in this time zone of the cycle. Inadequate altcoin pumping. Typically, "old" cryptocurrencies are showing 5-10x (+500-1000%) of previous dialing zones. The average profit accumulation/distribution of almost any cryptocurrency is 5-8X, with the range of lows and highs (for hamsters) usually twice as large. A huge amount of all sorts of crypto speculative garbage "promising cryptocurrencies" and "bitcoin killers" is created ... Pumped at the most inadequate interest with holding the reset zone for a long period of time due to the huge traffic of "stupid money". It should be separately emphasized that in this time zone of the cycle huge traffic of “stupid money”, who want to get rich without understanding anything about it. The crowd is not afraid to buy. This is key. The media is all about the positive. A huge number of newly-formed crypto experts are young kids, whose expertise will disappear when the market turns around in the next sub-cycle.... Anyone can make money ("sitting on the trend"), even buying and holding anything for a while, of course, except for "promising high-tech crypto garbage" on inadequate pumps and with the same news positive accompaniment. Absolutely all alts including high capitalization never repeat their price highs to bitcoin. Year 3 Bear Market. Market dumps from area of distribution (selling) price highs to area of set (buying). Price typically drops about -70%-80% on bitcoin Typically, when a distribution support zone is broken, many scare tales or real negative news stories are created to scare and trigger a “crypto depression”. Subsequently, a mostly negative news backdrop dominates, usually of a made up fairy tale nature in “three lines” for the true fools. Holders of “promising crypto” are bleeding, hope for the price to return to the previous value and "faith in projects" are gradually fading away. The final phase is dominated by the view that it's all a “crypto scam”. Bitcoin will "die." Toward the end of the phase, there is always a “bloody month” (price minimum)—before the formation of the dialing zone. Altcoins in this time zone of the cycle. Altcoins are declining from pumping highs before stopping the decline and moving sideways (set zones): Highly liquid 80-90% Medium liquid 90-96% Low liquid (extinction candidates) from -95% and below % conditional on such "crypto trash on the verge of life and death". Year 4 is the sideways zone, i.e. the accumulation zone. . In this time zone after a significant dump (more than a year) there is a corrective price recovery movement. This is the so-called "intermediate bitcoin pumping cycle". We are just in it at the moment. Altcoins in this time zone of the cycle. Altcoins of high and medium liquidity depreciate, as a rule, by -90-93%. Once this % depreciation is reached, horizontal accumulation channels (1 major zone) of position set for the next cycle are usually formed. "Cryptocurrency holders" who bought at or near price highs in the last cycle tend to all sell at a large loss in "tired of waiting" accumulation zones for their "promised bags of money". Low-liquid altcoins depreciate in price by -95% or lower. It is worth recalling that -95% from the previous -90% is -50%. That is another reduction of the deposit of the “grief trader” in two times. A part of altcoins, which with a small "community of believers in the wrapper" - “dies”. Often, the creators crypto run out of money for all sorts of marketing tricks. Then they pour the rest of their crypto phantom on the market, inventing some tale of hacking or something similar.... After that - "to the islands", until the next bull cycle. The sect of "deceived MMM depositors" scatters. The wrapper dies definitively.... Altcoins, including HYIP ones, which were created in the last cycle, are all depreciating. Out of the top 100 of the previous capitalization ranking, they depreciate beyond the top 1000. Never recover in capitalization and price not only to bitcoin, but also to the dollar in the future in the next cycle. This is what bitcoin trend cyclicality looks like on a linear price chart
BNC:BLX
by SpartaBTC
41
BTC's Rhythm, it likes 3...3 is a powerful concept in our existence. Body/Mind/Spirit. Positive/Negative/Neutral. Father/Son/Holy Ghost. You get the idea. BTC is no different. In this chart, 0 (at the bottom, fib time) is anchored to Halvings. The period between Halvings gives us 0.33 and 0.66; one third and two thirds of the cycle respectively. In splitting the chart time up this way, a clear pattern emerges (for the past Decade or so). From Halving to 0.33, BTC tends to Rally hard (Parabola Phase). From 0.33 to 0.66, BTC tends to Correct. From 0.66 to 0 (next Halving), BTC Tends to put in a Bottom/Base. While past performance does NOT indicate future results, history does tend to rhyme. Will this time be different? Will institutional adoption alter this cycle? Will the maturing of BTC as a Global Asset change the cadence of its growth? Only time will tell. So far this Halving is holding true to past rhymes. If, and that's a BIG IF, it continues to follow this chart... our current Parabola should endure thru ~~ Aug '25; At which point a heavy correction is quite likely. If we see structure breaking to the downside (on the weekly timeframe), then perhaps this time IS different; as that has not occurred in previous "Parabola" Phases. This gives us a clear invalidation of this theory. As always, good luck, have fun, and practice solid risk management.
BNC:BLXLong
by mrjones2020
2