History & Halving of Bitcoin from 2009 to 2022● October 31, 2008, Nakamoto Satoshi, known as the developer of Bitcoin, published a paper called Bitcoin: P2P Electronic Money System on the Internet.
● January 3, 2009, the first open-source Bitcoin client was created. Satoshi Nakamoto obtained 50 BTC through the first mining. This is commonly referred to as the Genesis Block
● May 22, 2010, Rogramer Laszlo Hanyetz delivered two pizzas of Papa Jones and paid for them in 10,000 bitcoins
● August 22, 2010, Bitcoin's first and last technical error occurred
● April 18, 2011, Namecoin, the world's first altcoin, appeared.
● September 27, 2012, the Bitcoin Foundation was formed.
● December 6, 2012, the first Bitcoin exchange in Europe obtained a banking license.
● October 29, 2013, the first Bitcoin ATM was installed in Vancouver, Canada.
● Vitalik Buterin Ethereum was first founded in 2014
● February 26, 2014, Mount Gox (www.mtgox.com), the second largest Bitcoin exchange, was closed.
● January 6, 2015, Europe's third-largest bitstamp on the Bitcoin exchange revealed that its wallet had been stolen through hacking.
● December 2017, $19764 achieves a new reporting point
● In November 2018, a bill banning Chinese cryptocurrency mining and exchanges was issued
● It has been about 487 days since February 21, 2018, when $11,000 was reached on June 22, 2019.
● Bitcoin was designated as the world's first legal currency in El Salvador on June 9, 2021.
● April 14, 2021 achieved the highest point in Bitcoin history of 68944$
● February 24, 2022: Ukraine's Russian War breaks out
● May 2022 Luna and FTX incident occurred
BLX trade ideas
In A Parallel Universe Without Corona ...in a parallel universe without corona, we maybe would have reached the predicted top and bottom. in a hypothetical self-contained plane of existence, bullrun would start in april 2023.
$BTC | Risk MetricI have tried to fit a curved line along as many bottom wicks as I could. I then copied this line and tried to fit it across the tops, then plotted two more instances at the 25%, and 75% of said range. The white boxes represent one year from Jan - Jan.
Bitcoin Back to $70k SoonStock market and Bitcoin forming descending broadening wedge, Bitcoin is also forming a falling wedge, both patterns have a target back to ATH's. 2023 should be an interesting year!
Bitcoin in a Falling Wedge?Falling wedges can break either direction & are notorious both for faking out market participants AND for the speed at which the ultimate move goes. Should this pattern fill out a bit more so that it's crystal clear that it's a FW, here are the break out targets visualized.
For breaks to the upside:
~$30,000 (macro resistance)
~$25,000 (highest high in the pattern)
For breaks to the downside:
~$9,750 (1.618 extension of move)
~$5,250 (measured move)
Armed with these targets, you should be able to begin formulating a plan.
Again, markets tend to move VERY quickly once a breakout occurs. I often liken it so someone yelling FIRE in a crowded theater & everyone rushing for the exits at once. Those sidelined & off sides will react swiftly to close their positions (both manually or with stops). Margin cascades will occur fast and fierce.
As is often the case during bear markets, LIMIT YOUR MARGIN USAGE!
Bitcoin Technical Analysis 2022 - Based on OnBalanceVolumeHello every one, hope you all are doing good.
This is not a financial Advice, crypto is very volatile and risky, so please do research by your own before doing trade.
OBV OnBalanceVolume is one of important indicator to find the volume locations/movement of volume and the movement of the price.
sometimes it's hard to find out the Divergences using RSI alone, stochastic oscillator and MFI is also one good indicator to identify the Divergences.
Apart from RSI, MFI and stochastic, we can find divergence using OBV too.
For example, as I mentioned in the chart, the Orange Box (from Jan 2015 to April 2016) the price action of Bitcoin was roughly from 200usd to 500usd
but the OBV value is showing a huge "Divergences" roughly from just 3M to 23M perhaps the all-time high of OBV is 37M.
So, most of the critical volume is inside this orange zone, so throughout the life cycle of Bitcoin this volume is playing a vital role until now.
According to Wyckoff theory the market movers or market makers or so-called Composite Men (Orange Box) who buy cheaply and sell at high.
Ok, let's come to point, this time am making this Bitcoin Analysis based on OBV to find the critical zones of volume and where we are at now throughout the Bitcoin Life Cycle.
After deeply analyzing the OBV and drawing the trendlines and channels where the volume and price is respecting more, after the massive Breakout from the parallel channel (at orange zone),
Orange zone is the actual/core accumulation zone of overall Bitcoin where the Composite Men accumulated buying very cheaply and keep Distributing till now and Distribute until the Bitcoin is reset.
Final Conclusion1:
After the massive Breakout from the Parallel channel, the Momentum of OBV is not drastically increasing but instead its Dropping steadily.
From 2016-Breakout to until now 2022 the OBV value is ranging between roughly 25M to 38M (not huge difference), the momentum of going up is Dropped and
Instead of Breakout from the channel it Brokedown in the current Bear Market 2022 this is something concerned of.
So most likely the OBV will keep testing and testing the top of the channel and to my guess it keeps failing and failing same as the blue ascending triangle in the chart
and don't know when but, at some point of time at least once, it should test the bottom of the parallel channel. (May be this test will be the Reset point for Bitcoin).
Final Conclusion2:
Currently there is a slight Divergence created in OBV as price falling and OBV is showing small uptrend.
So most likely soon there will be a counter move in the upside direction and test the upper line of the parallel channel.
(In most cases this kind of slight Divergences happens in corrective waves when the market is selling off (during Distribution phase) and forcibly divert the market to move in reverse direction).
Please give a like and comment if you have any questions.
Thank you.
Historic moment for Bitcoin - Winter is comingAs we can see, in 3-5 weeks from now i.e, 3rd week for Jan to 2nd week of Feb 2023, we are looking at 50 week and 200 week moving average death cross. This has NEVER happened in the history of bitcoin. As of now, it doesn't look like market will go above 24K to avoid this death cross. Hence, the possibility of a never seen before crypto winter.
Moreover, you can see from the Fib extension that the target levels are ~13363 (fib 0.382), ~9734 (fib 0.5) or as low as ~6100 (fib 0.618). To draw this fib levels I assumed that the bear market began from the top of March-April 2022.
Additionally, In previous bear market of 2018 Bitcoin dropped ~83%. In the bear market of 2014, it dropped ~83%. In the bear market of 2011 it dropped ~92%. Therefore, a drop of ~85% from ATH would mean price would reach ~9800, which is close to 0.5 fib level and a drop of 91% would make the price as low as ~6000.
A drop to 6K seems difficult to imagine for myself but drops like this has happened in the past and BTC will recover stronger than ever. What do you guys think?
I'm learning myself and feedbacks are welcome.
PS: This is not a financial advice but just a point of view.
Bitcoin likely botttoms b4 $8200. Bottom being formed right nowThis is a spot idea for those debating whether now is a good time to begin acquiring the stash for the next cycle. Bitcoin is bottoming as we speak pending recession risk there is strong support at $8200 in a worst-case outcome. However, there are strong technical indications pointing to more upside. The first real upside targets in the long term are $45,000+ for BTC in the next 360-527 days which represents a modest 127%+ return from current levels. In light of recent events like the FTX implosion, it is safe to say that US regulators will come hard on other "alternative currencies" whether they will make it through another cycle is up in the air. However, for now, bitcoin has been a deemed commodity by the SEC and represents the most prudent investment to make in light of current events. Now is the time to build a core position for the next run-up.
Bitcoin Reversal Hopes BLX trend line in solid white that needs to hodl for price to reverse to the upside
If this structure breaks down and it is no longer a higher low price may continue downward within the channel
Hopes
Long btcLooking at the up and down the limits of price action in the past we can create boundaries and forecast the momentum of future moves.
Strong support for bitcoinAttention! Incredibly long text!
A huge cluster of pending orders to buy Bitcoin will not allow the price to drop to the $13,000 area expected by everyone.
In addition, these conditions will allow the market maker to move the market to the $32,000-$38,000 region in order to use a trap for marginal bears and their subsequent liquidation.
Bitcoin is ready for a rallyThe ratio of itcoin to the money supply index is at its bottom. This is a good place to start a new path.
Analysis of long-term trend of Bitcoin through annual chartLooking at Bitcoin on an annual chart, we see it finishing above its 5-year moving average.
If Bitcoin's year-over-year trend is to be alive
The 5-year moving average should be maintained within this year.
In other words, I have to go 20k within this year.
Bitcoin TA from 2010 to 2022 - Based on previous Patterns/cyclesAs I said I will post an idea different from Elliott wave theory. Not a financial Advice, this is my personal opinion or idea.
This Bitcoin Technical Analysis is purely based on studying its own previous trends/cycles and predicting the future cycle.
This is not based on Elliotte wave Theory nor am comparing it with DXY or S&P or Dow, next time I will make an idea based on correlation with DXY/Dollar.
Before proceeding I will tell an interesting story " The Story of Zombie and chickens".
A lazy zombie maintains the chicken farm, since chickens grow and breed faster so the numbers are keep growing n growing.
Throughout the year zombie keeps eating chickens and he keeps growing bigger n bigger. Since the zombie is very lazy, he needs help and maintains a dog to look after all the chickens.
As per now for every 4 years or so zombie gets seasonal disease and to get recover himself, he eats chickens in a massive number, not all though.
Dog also keeps eating for his survival, but after all its dog, so when the dog gets older and unable to handle the chickens, zombie appoints a new young dog to take his place.
The conclusion of this story is "Zombie never dies and keeps growing n growing, chickens are born kill and the dog keeps replaced by a new dog".
Ok let's proceed with our Analysis. Different traders visualize the charts in different ways based on their own perception. Chart is the emotions of all traders, it's like map of treasures.
I see many people use trend lines, Fibonacci, moving averages, Ichimoko or other technical indicators and many other.
Even I use many of these, but for this am not using averages or Fibonacci or Ichimoko. Am using RSI and money flow index indicators and triangle pattern for this.
1.Explaining the Patterns or drawings which I created:
Chart patterns in longer time frames, price moves in waves or some kind of curves rather than straight lines/trendlines.
I made some concentric circles where the price is respecting more (basically support n resistances), that doesn't mean the price goes in a circular fashion and goes back to its origin - zero.
Always trend breaks (upside or downside) so may be at some point of time it may break out this circular channel and form a new trend of circles.
I created the triangle pattern in this way --> (A)previous ATH-> to ->(B)current ATH-> to ->(C)lowest bearish Point-> to -> Highest counter move).
For each Bull of Bitcoin (with in 2yrs or so), it is forming a kind of symmetrical triangle with ABCD waves inside it.
(Symmetrical Triangle pattern --> Breaking out of the pattern --> new Bull or new Triangle pattern again).
2.Observation and conclusion taken from the patterns:
After deeply observing the previous 3 symmetrical triangles of Bitcoin-Green, Blue and Purple. I was wandering how to make the current pattern.
The information I have is (previous ATH 20k (point A) + current ATH 70k (point B) + I took 15500(point C) as temporary Bottom.
The conclusion is Green + Blue + Purple triangles are symmetrical in shape. (Symmetrical triangles are mostly bullish and breakout upside not compulsory though).
But for the current cycle, bitcoin is making is Descending triangle. Descending triangle patterns are generally bullish as well as bearish depend on where they are created.
(At the Bottom OR At top of the cycle). As of now it is at the top (so this means there are chances it may breakdown from this Descending triangle).
What I observed is cycle after cycle the width of the triangles are increasing and the height is getting decreased, technically what does this mean?
what I concluded is the move of going sideways is increasing and the momentum or motive of going up is diminishing/normalizing.
(So, this means there are high chances Bitcoin may move less upside and may go sideways or down).
One more thing I observed is after massive move/action of correction of every cycle (Bitcoin Bottom) there is counter move/reaction (Point D of the Triangle).
Generally, the point "D" of every cycle is laying above the top edge of previous symmetrical triangle (the sky-blue horizontal arrow lines).
(So based on the above observation I took the "D" point at 50k as counter move/reaction for current cycle/Descending triangle,
also, it is coinciding with the concentric circles which I made).
3.Final Conclusion, studying the current Descending triangle (Red)/Probabilities:
After over all study, this is my Personal Opinion:
1.Current correction is so massive with in short period of time, considering previous counter rallies and currently bullish Divergences formed in RSI + MFI taking into account,
so high possibilities that there can be a counter rally up to 50k or more than that.
2.I don't think current low 15495 is Bottom for Bitcoin. May be temporary Bottom or it may go little lower than now creating 2 layers of bullish divergences in RSI (for temp Bottom).
(Technically current pattern is Descending triangle, so high possibilities that Bitcoin may make lower low (another low may be 13780) after the counter rally.
to my guess Bitcoin may put its lower low after the Halving).
4.Probabilities of next Bull/cycle:
case1: After Bitcoin making lower low (may be 13.7k), this is the situation DO/DIE for Bitcoin.
If Bitcoin manages to break out of this Descending triangle similar to previous moves, it can put a new ATH (for another decade Bitcoin may trade between 19k to 160k).
case2: Since current pattern is Descending triangle, if Bitcoin fails to breakout from this channel, there are high probabilities that it will break down.
If Bitcoin Breaks Down, most likely it will reset itself from over all cycle right from 2010. (This scenario can be same as my previous Elliott wave theory which I already shared.)
Am sorry my Technical Analysis looks little complex; I hope I explained well.
Thank you.
BTCUSD - RSI RecoveryRecurring RSI pattern that shows a higher low double bottom pattern
This is shown in white rectangles
A strong reversal sign
BTCUSD - Bullish RSI DivergenceDivergence on the RSI showing a higher low
While price shows lower lows
This is a bullish divergence
Bigger reversal soon?
BTCUSDTA historical trend has been broken, and in addition, a test was made for this break, and it is expected that the result of the break will be a strong drop
Bitcoin price of $330,000 by end of 2025 scenario 2Using the BLX chart on the 2 days to show Bitcoin as a scenario 2 possibility for Bitcoin reaching this $330k value by April instead of the end of year 2025. there are certain parameters used to make this assertion. On the first bear market of 2014 from the bottom to the next higher low was about 220 days and then the bull started for the next cycle. The next was in the 2018 Bear where we had the first low at $3200 and then the next higher low at $3900 which represents about 454 days before the next bull cycle kicked in where Bitcoin hit a high of $69k in 2021. If we take this double increase difference and add it to this next cycle we will see a possible 800 days from the first low to the next higher low and we get our possible April date for the Bitcoin peak in 2025. I am using a fractal plus the Beambands as an indicator for this possible target price which coincides at top of beamband in 2025.
BLXBitcoin's historical waves have not ended yet, there is still the last wave, and it is the fifth wave, but after the end of the fourth wave's decline, which is close to ending at $10,000 levels as an area, from which it will begin to rise, an impulse that extends an average number of two years of rise, ending in the fifth historical wave of Bitcoin
BTC USD - anticipating the low in 2023Update to the full version which is published June 6th 2022.
Review the full article below in linked -
Second link is a private update - now made public.
G'day traders, investors, analysts,
Breakdown:
1. Note
2. Contents
3. Research breakdown
4. Education recap
5. Information on Lupa.
A note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon a long term trading strategy looking for Fresh Demand/Supply zones.
This is tagged Neutral due to the overall monthly Supply PCP in control, until the opportunity of a rejection of the pattern completion to a fresh demand tap has occurred or a long opportunity from a break and retest of the trend. Overall, where an imbalance is formed and sellers have completed the changing of hands due to purchasing further increments the exhaustive sellers. Until this criteria is met - no trade is taken until reactive, break or curve is confirmed. The methodology here is to trade spot and or invest, futures contracts to hold positions for periods over a span of weeks to months. If this is not specifically aligned to 'your strategy' then at least appreciate the structure.
Risk Warning
Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence as criteria varies to suit the individual.
Master Key for zones
Red = Three Month
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Orange = Daily
Technical Setup Acronyms
Key:
CP - Continuation pattern
DBD - Drop Base Drop
OP - Original price
DCA - Dollar Cost Average
FL - Fresh Levels
Check the updates to see where the logarithmic charts have taken us.
Analysis's below
Original outlook and full in depth analysis below.
BTC - Outlooks for the Future
A smaller counter trade buy and sell opportunity provided below;
Daily update Short Term CP.
Monthly Chart (no log)
The monthly has created the supply zone at the all time high with confirmations provided on the weekly with a $9,000 ending at a a slight bullish indecision provided a test of the monthly curve (bullish), price broke and retested this with the consecutive bearish move. These two weeks from a $55,000 confirmation sell, provides a fresh supply zone.
Price then on began the slippery slope of creating a 'Low', whereby price put in a lower low, before looing back to a pivot position back between December 2021 with the four weeks, creating a 'base' which aligned with the market structure (left).
The weekly log chart shows
price is below the fair value of BTC comprised of time of writing ($25,100) - technical traders will realise this is the previous PCP level and supply.
Price has now formulated within the weekly zone as a retest, however yet to indicate a deep test of the zone (down to $15,000). Refer to article on historical diminishing returns and the lows of previous years (BTC - outlooks for the future).
The latest Supply FL between $23-25.1k shows the sheer strength of the bearish moves taking place at present, along with the high curve which is being respected.
updates
price has now shown the mid regression band is in affect, where by price is well below the market fair value - with the weekly chart delayed by one day. Refer to BTC USD where the latest engulfing on the daily chart has been provided.
Four Day chart
The weekly and Four day provides the clear picture where the steep curve is intact and yet to be broken on a retest. This is due to the OL still yet to be tapped and the current zone acting as a strong tested zone - whether this will hold.
The four day supplies are nested within the weekly chart so the above information holds as the structure of the market is outlined above.
Daily Chart
Where can price go? - it looks clear upon the current price cycle that price is looking towards the retest of the double bottom at the low of $17,500, this depends on the current double daily bottom of the $18.2k to be over come first.
The downward channel as been creating multiple impulse, corrective and subsequent impulses again - this is due to the market structure (left) this enables the price action to show where price can free fall and where a hurdle has occurred - forming a pivot point for a correction or a consolidative base formation.
latest update
Daily Chart re-aligned for present values as at 16th Dec 2022
all notes above still apply - the only difference now is that after the break of the smaller channel - BTC is indicating a short term pivot to a selling level to continue the sells.
Do you enjoy the setups?
Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets
Focus on technical output not fundamentals
Focus on investing for long term positional moves
Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Thanks,
LVPA MMXXII
