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BITCOIN - Bear Market about to endAs with every bearish cycle, panic is reigning in the crypto world right now. And for this very reason it seems appropriate to make this analysis that, hopefully, will shed a ray of sunlight on the fearful ones. Since there is a lot to work with, I will divide the analysis into 3 parts (please note that this is macrocyclical trend analysis but fundamental analysis has not been considered). The material in this publication has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any viewer. This publication is presented solely for informational and entertainment purposes and is not to be construed as a recommendation, solicitation or an offer to buy or sell / long or short any securities, commodities, cryptocurrencies or any related financial instruments. Nor should any of its content be taken as investment advice. Trading and investing is extremely high risk and can result in the loss of all of your capital. Any opinions expressed in this publication are subject to change without notice. 1) Cycle Duration: Bearish cycle & Bullish cycle 2) Bear cycle bottom & Current bear market correction 3) Bull cycle top & Next bull cycle gains 1) Cycle Duration Bearish cycle : If we measure the duration of the previous bearish cycles, we can see that the 1st cycle lasted around 150 days, the 2nd cycle lasted around 640 days, and the 3rd one lasted near 820 days. If we average them we can estimate a duration of 550 days for the current bearish cycle. As a result, we can infer a high degree of probability that we'll touch the bottom within the 4th quarter of 2022. Bullish cycle : If we measure the number of days between the maximums of each cycle, we obtain an average of 1180 days. With this result we can infer that the next cycle top will be around June 2024. On the other hand, measuring the duration of the bullish cycle of each macro cycle, we obtain an average of 600 days per cycle. Which allows us to forecast that the next bullrun will be between the 4th quarter of 2022 and the end of 2023 1st semester. 2) Bear cycle bottom & Current bear market correction Bear cycle bottom : The first bitcoin correction was about 93%, the 2nd one was near 85%, and the 3rd one was arround 83%. On average, bitcoin corrections have been reducing by 5 points per cycle, so we can infer that the current correction can reach approximately 73%. The price bottom we obtain with these calculations is roughly $14,000 3) Bull cycle top & Next bull cycle gains Bull cycle top : As in all markets, as the market capitalization of an asset increases, the amount of money that needs to be injected to produce a significant price movement also increases. Therefore, in percentage terms, we can expect the profit level of the next bullrun to be lower than the previous one. In total terms, the 1st bullrun saw a rise of around 52,000%, the 2nd bullrun rise was close to 12,000%, while the 3rd rise was close to 2,000%. With this movement patterns it's fair to assume that the gains porcentage will be lower, so we infer gains of up to 1,000% for the next bullrun. The price top we obtain with these calculations is roughly $150,000 I hope you enjoy this review and found it useful. Or, at least, that this helps to give that little push needed for trend reversal. Cheers!
BNC:BLXLong
by GSANMARTINv
1
The Bitcoin Experiment!First off I want to say, don't take this as gospel. This is a chart to follow bitcoin and plot it's path using math and it's trend patterns to date. The time sequences from a factor of 1.4, 1.5 and 1.6 are what the math shows me 1.4 Multiple being the trend from establishment (support) to trend end 1.44 Multiple is the breakthrough to the trend end 1.5 Multiple is the breakthrough to peak (Shaded area) You follow chart this until it's voided 1.6 Multiple is from peak to peak (Long Green arrow) This math is using the second peak in November 2021 1.3 is the multiple using the first peak in April 2021 (shorter green line), which puts the second parabola and final top of the trend in July of 2031. History might not repeat exactly but it does seem to follow the patterns fairly closely. Using math sequences we might be able to figure out approximate moves fairly closely. For this chart to have present or very near timeline validity, the next few bars should push up against the blue line as resistance just as it did on the red line in 2014. So, Let's wait and see into December to see what happens. The blue and red regression trend shows a similar pattern with three waves down until the final plunge of the trend line break through. If accurate, this chart can help you navigate through the Bitcoin timeline, as it can help you see what stage it is in, or at least to get a better grasp of the moves. Please feel free to comment your thoughts below Thank you for looking WeAreSatoshi Stay Blessed!
BNC:BLX
by WeAreSat0shi
6
BITCOIN Elliott Waves (the new Bullish Cycle coming Soon)Hello friends. Please support my work by clicking the LIKE button👍(If you liked). Also i will appreciate for ur activity. Thank you! Everything on the chart. I believe that we are waiting for the final growth for the coming decades - the last chance to make money on the crypto. Wave and other analysis techniques allowed us not only to predict this growth in advance, but also to set a target of approximately $250000. And the critical level for the count is just below $14,000. Now these levels can be used to take a long investment position. Target for wave 5 OF (5) - it's zone 220-280k$. cancellation of scenario - cosolidation under ~13000$. Even if something went wrong(I put 10% on it) atleast im sure that we will see roolback in zone ~27-29k coz there we have gap on CME. Summing up, I think that now is the best time and entry point into a long-term investment and the best chance to earn a fortune over the next 3-4 years. Dont miss it. Good luck everyone! Follow me on TRADINGView, if you don't want to miss my next analysis or signals. It's not financial advice. Dont Forget, always make your own research before to trade my ideas! Open to any questions and suggestions.
BNC:BLXLong
by trytofeelpositive
10
$ 3.200 as bitcoin bottom (open for discussion)In a few words: This alternative scenario for BTC is mainly based on log-fib relationships. According to it BTC is in wave (4) of its major cycle which would have a high probability to end around $ 3.200. In this case wave (4) would reach the 0.382 (log) of the length of wave (3) which happens to be the exact bottom of wave iv. Please note, this is just an alternative scenario. No FUD intended and mainly directed to other EW-analysts. Open for discussion.
BNC:BLXShort
by MisterCoinlover
4
BITCOIN AT THE BOTTOM OF PITCHFORK WITH WEEKLY DIVERGENCEA lot of negative sentiment on the market right now, and with everyone expecting BTC to drop to 12.000-10.000 area, there is a high probability that BTC creates even temporary bottom. Fear index currently at 23 (extreme fear). Also BTC is near the cost of production, and historically BTC always bottomed above the value of production. As you can see BTC price respected this pitchfork throughout the whole bull run. That doesn't mean it would be saved by 2X extension. It could still pierce trough the support, create the capitulation bottom, and then slowly bottom out here. Nice area to dollar cost average, and to start buying.
BNC:BLXLong
by AjnoudaSikret
Bitcoin repeats 2018 + gigantic RSI falling wedgeIn 2018/2019 BTC fell 48% to 3.2K after it broke the 6K support (see orange line). Now, after a very similar sideways trading pattern during this bear market, we broke support at 19K. We expect bitcoin to fall around 48% (similar as in 2019) to 9.5K ... coinciding with a .618 retracement level from HTF low (3K) to HTF high (69K) RSI FALLING WEDGE In the mean time a giant falling wedge has been forming in the weekly RSI. We expect the next Bull-run to start after a confirmed break to the upside out of this wedge.
BNC:BLX
by MFFD
Bitcoin - BTC never lower than $17,607 again❌🟩❓Bitcoin BTC never lower than $17,607 again ⁉️ Invalidation sponsored by FTX misery🚨 But TRIX indicator again with next clear higher point❌that might give a hint for the next BULLISH run dear Crypto Nation😉👀 Weekly close important Let me know your thoughts in the comments🤗 ⬇️⬇️⬇️ Likes and Follow for updates appreciated🤗 Disclaimer: Not financial advice Do your own research before investing The content shared is for educational purposes only and is my personal opinion
BNC:BLXLong
by Crypto4Everybody
Bitcoin Has Always Been In WyckoffHere we can see Bitcoin has always been in some type of Wyckoff trading range since the VERY START!!! This is an absolutely crazy find! I do not know for sure about the $0.01 wick, but it is what it is. And as of right now Bitcoin may be in Wyckoff Accumulation! As I've been projecting for a few weeks now. I called the $16,800 crash from a bear flag and the bigger 1.618 Fibonacci target from Bitcoins previous low at $28.8k to the high of $69k ;) gave an exact target down to that level. And when i drew that fib, i saw Bitcoin was inches away from it and i thought about Wyckoff accumulation, then put two and two together and it could lead to a spring in the accumulation phase!!!!! And so far, Bitcoin is holding!! If bitcoin bounces back from here it could get marked up as my idea projects!!!!! Posted in related ideas and comments! I will also show the very start of BTC in accumulation in the comments! It's so crazy! (Also sorry for the extra green boxes. I will remove the ones that aren't needed and post it in the comments so it's a cleaner chart.)
BNC:BLX
by davidmarcus1324
1
.786 Fib From Bitcoin's Inception w/Log Growth CurveFriends, I hope you are all having a good weekend! I wanted to continue on our theme from last week, regarding the .786 Fib. I know many are glued to the .786 Fib from our prior Bear Market low, as am I. BUT, I also have to consider what happens if we lose $17.2K on the MONTHLY close. Today I wanted to share the .786 from the actual INCEPTION of Bitcoin. I also included the log growth curve that many have seen before. What I found was striking! IF, BIG IF here, we were to lose $17.2K on a monthly close, there is the .786 of the entire structure at $14.7K. This level also coincides with the bottom of the log growth curve. Now I will be the first to admit I TRULY BELIEVED that $17.2K was THE LOW! And while it still could be on the monthly, both the daily and weekly have lost it. The one thing that I always want to do is admit when I am wrong, but also look to areas on the chart that give me a basis for being Bullish or Bearish on a stock or crypto. Such is my case for this chart. This is NOT an attempt to move goal posts, but rather an attempt to overlay a Fib on the Highest time frame possible that still allows for a Bullish outcome. So for the Good, The Bad, and the Ugly: THE GOOD NEWS: The MONTHLY CANDLE still awaits and $17.2K remains in play. The BAD NEWS: If $17.2K is lost, then yes, another leg lower is in the cards. I know this would give Bulls indigestion, but that level is not too far removed from current levels. For me, I am willing to employ some tactical risk management in and around that key area ($14.7K) THE POTENTIAL UGLY NEWS: If, (another BIG IF here!), Bitcoin were to close under BOTH its logarithmic growth curve AND its .786 Fib of the ENTIRE BULL STRUCTURE on a MONTHLY CLOSE, the Bitcoin Bull is indeed DEAD, and a longer crypto winter awaits with MUCH lower prices than most would like to recognize. While we would still have a retrace, it would be an A-B-C style corrective retrace with lower lows still to follow. For me, I still remain constructive on Bitcoin. I missed the $17.2K call on the daily and weekly, to that end I am sorry. However, Time will tell if I am still right on the Monthly (which for longer term holders is what matters). For what it is worth, I have NEVER seen such bad news in all of my time in this space. The sentiment alone leads me to believe a turning point is near. While I will NEVER ADVISE ANYONE on how or where to invest, I am a believer in Bitcoin longer term. I am also willing to give the charts a little room to breathe here. I have never made a good trade or investment in haste, and I will not start now. I wish you all the Best, and I will continue to do all I can to chart the path forward!
BNC:BLX
by JTheretohelp1
4
BTC - my main ChartHello, here´s an overview of my 2 main scenarios im basing most of my trades on. Crypto either has another bullrun (the last one for sure before bubble popping) after testing the 10-14k support area or the bubble is popping already and the 2020/2021 bullrun was indeed the last one. Targets for my Bull sceanrio is ~100k USD in 2024/25 after the next halving. Targets for bubble burst would be ~1300 USD. Fundamentaly im bearish on Crypto as it only has few niche usecases at best. BTC isnt scaleable and wont go anywhere because of this, its not the future of money. What is left, is a Pump and Dump without a working product which has real world usecases. Crypto is 99.9% scams and cant be taken serious at all, its burning tons of electricity for Ponzis/Pump and Dumps. I personally am very skeptic if we see another bullrun but this market is anything but rational, so i guess it would be a possibility. I give it a 20-30% chance for another bullrun. My main scenario is that we are on the way to under 2k per BTC . A break of the green Curve would confirm to me that the bubble is bursting, if it holds we will see another bullrun. Know this risk if you plan to buy at 10k and "bet" on another run, Btc could basically always drop another 90%. Its just a matter of time this house of cards will collapse epically and the past drops is the recent months will be a joke to what may still be ahead. (Tether being not fully backed for example) Be careful out there and DYOR.
BNC:BLXShort
by Symbio_X
2