Bitcoin log chartBitcoin log chart
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BLX trade ideas
Bitcoin Halving Macro AnalysisMy Macro thesis for how to trade the Bitcoin market cycle is largely dependent on the Halving schedule, roughly every 4 years the supply of new bitcoin rewarded for each block mined is halved. This event is typically a catalyst that begins the next bull run. The ultimate bear market lows occur roughly 500 days before the next halving. Many assume that the Liquidation of FTX has wiped all irresponsible leverage from the machine and the bottom is in time will tell if this is the case. In my opinion this 12 year cycle should be identified as something else I've called it a business cycle as this entire cycle has occurred during a macro economic bull-run without a global recession taking place. The break of the long term logarithmic support appears to support this thesis. I am still of the belief that the next halving which is set to occur April 10th 2024 will catalyze the next cryptocurrency bull run and ultimate lows will occur when the global recession has bottomed. Despite Bitcoin's deflationary tokenomics it is still ultimately a risk asset that will be sold as the market liquidity crunch continues.
Bitcoin Sentiment CycleBitcoin Sentiment Cycle Phase
Justin Mamis sums up nicely what the sentiment cycle represents in saying: “What we have is essentially a graphical representation of the manic depressive moods typically experienced by market participants as a function of time and price in one complete sentiment loop.”
> Returning confidence
By the time confidence is fully restored, the markets have been rallying for some time. They start to get choppy and retracement moves get consecutively more fierce, each one more intimidating than the last.
> "Buy the dip"
A huge pullback now gets underway, even larger than the scary one you may have witnessed last month or so. After such a dynamic bull run, investors are willing to take on a phenomenal amount of risk, and the smart money buys the big dip. Also, money is still flooding in from the general public, who likely read in The Sun that stock markets will remain strong for all eternity.
> Enthusiasm
At this stage, all economic data still supports the idea of higher prices. Traders who didn’t get involved in the last-dip buying opportunity now have hard evidence that it worked before. All of the traders who wanted to be long are now long (there are no more buyers), causing prices to decelerate. Distribution starts to take place, i.e. stocks transfer hands from smart money to stupid money—strong to weak.
> Disbelief / Overt Warning
Traders start to get that gut-wrenching feeling that something may be changing, but the fundamentals still don’t back this up, and people cling onto hope alone. Analysts start to get subtle warnings. Maybe previous market leaders start to break below important support levels or moving averages.
> Panic
Typically there’d be a catalyst here (i.e. big banks like Lehman Brothers start to file for bankruptcy… sound familiar?). The index will break below a previous reaction low or maybe the 200-day moving average. News readers will be telling the world that the fun is now over. Intelligent investors start to sell rallies, giving stock prices little or no chance of any recovery.
> Discouragement
Prices have been rattling off for some time now as the general public starts shedding stock and the short sellers are stronger than ever. There’s no good economic news flow and everyone thinks that stock markets will go down forever.
> Wall of Worry
Certain market sectors will now start to bottom out as everyone who wanted to sell has done so. The smart money now starts to move in slowly, resulting in the market pausing for breath or drifting along sideways for a few months. There are no sellers left; so despite the bad news flow, markets start to creep higher. Short sellers start to cover their positions, adding fuel to the fire.
> Aversion to Denial
Markets start to trend upwards. Short sellers start to get concerned that sentiment has changed. With no sellers above the market, these sorts of moves can be fast and sharp and tend to leave people behind.
Source:
"The Nature of Risk" by Justin Mamis
"A cycle begins with stocks climbing “a wall of worry” and ends when there is no worry anymore. Even after the rise tops out, investors continue to believe that they should buy the dips...
Unwillingness to believe in that change marks the first phase down: “It’s just another buying opportunity.”
The second, realistic, phase down is the passage from bullish to bearish sentiment...
Selling begins to make sense. It culminates with the third phase: investors, in disgust, dump right near the eventual low in the conviction that the bad news is never going to stop . . ."
Disclaimer:
Autor (Polmej) is not responsible for any damages and losses related to any products, services or ideas.
Autor (Polmej) encourages the audience to conduct their own investigations with due diligence on the company, product, service or idea.
Autor (Polmej) does not provide investment, financial or legal advice.
*queue free bird by lynyrd skynyrd*drttuu y356yw 546y w45hw45hsersew 56u e56u w45ywa 45y a45ta 3yn 45yw4ay45yn 4
FLY HIIIIGH FREEEE BIIIIRD YEAH
Bitcoin LONG LONG TERM 300K$ by 2030Bitcoin price will stay between the green lines, and will follow in the shorter term the orange line, first $10k before moon-phase, $300k by the year 2030 !!! lets stay positive, ofcourse you are better of when buying $HEX instead!!!! NFA!
BTC bottom area BTC should have technically bottom or be very close to based on time of previous bottoms vs havening
Bottoms In Based On This?BTC hits the 2.272 each time from the previous bull market top to bear market bottom. 2017 top to the 2018 bottom shows a 2.272 target of $202,545.01 I also laid over the fractal of 2018's bottom to currently time and if BTC copies it it could form a cup and handle/inverse H&S and have a final target exactly to the 2.272 Fibonacci target. I will post better views in the comments.
Bitcoin hash ribbons indicator has given good buy signalsThis is the BLX daily chart. The following are the 14 times in Bitcoin's history that have given buy signals as good opportunities to buy Bitcoin for long term accumulation:
12/21/11 Buy $3.89
6/19/12 Buy $6.49
2/7/13 Buy $22.04
1/28/15 Buy $234.61
5/6/15 Buy $229.86
5/17/15 Buy $236.49
6/18/15 Buy $249.02
1/9/19 Buy $4020.12
12/27/19 Buy $7245.33
4/23/20 Buy $7478.18
7/12/20 Buy $9306.71
12/2/20 Buy $19231.24
8/7/21 Buy $44635.65
8/19/22 Buy $20834.94
Assuming 1% average buy fees over the last 11 years and buying $1000 worth of BTC each time, your $14000 BTC investment would have bought 469.442 BTC. At the current $17648 price, your $14000 investment would now be worth $8,284,704.
The hash ribbons indicator hasn't given a buy signal yet, but probably will within the next month.
BTC now is the time to be buying cryptoTell your friends and family to buy crypto now in to 2023. Not when BTC hits 50k again. The risk reward ratios on these coins is good again. If something goes from 1 to 10 that is a 10x. If you tell them when it is at 5 its a 2x. Think logically in the market ignore how you feel and what you read. Can you imagine what will happen with the financial markets if Russia Ukraine gets resolved and the fed stops raising rates. Crypto will shoot up so fast that you will miss the bottom if you are not in before hand.
if last drop exist, we should buy btc at 14500-15000.it is time to calculate the final buy zero. i think maybe 14500-15000 and touch the trend line .
dont fomo.
2023 $49k Bitcoin Forecast - A Replay of the 2019 Echo BubbleMacro larps gonna keep SIMP-ing to daddy Powell, psychoanalyzing every CPI / FOMC reading, salivating every tier10k push notification beep, stalking every ES1! 1 minute candle, annotating 7800 seconds of The Big Short line-by-line
$13.9k = 61.8% fib retrace of the Dec 2017 high to the Dec 2018 low ($19k -> $3.2k)
$49k = 61.8% fib retrace of the Nov 2021 high to the Nov 2022 low ($69k -> $15k)
my_body_is_ready.png
Tribelhorn DCA updateToday I did the DCA into BTC at 16850
There is bullish divergence that has printed, and i feel like the markets are oversold.
I believe that we may have some more downward momentum, but there are also a lot of macro factors that suggest that there is more than can go right for bitcoin than wrong
This graph shows the levels i plan to DCA into bitcoin at.
Note the 6 months after the halving time horizon, i plan to be fully invested.
I may decide to DCA harder once we break the trendlines on a confirmation
The green box shows my ideal buy area, however i will be DCAing between the 618 and 786 fib levels if we stabilize that high
Ethereum looks like Bitcoin in 2015Starting to buy ETH to hold long-term.
You can even see similar patterns in the RSI, specifically in this past year's bear market.
Parabolic symmetry achieved. Just for fun.
:D
Inverse sine function to calculate ascending spherical ranges (range of time and price), based on the assumption that fibonacci progressions are true. Arbitrary or not.
Confluence with fibonnacci and Euler's for S/R.
Seen this before anywheres?
Looks neat if anything else.
How do we hibernate until 1939?
-JNY
Btc Past Cycles 1 week long termBtc Past Cycles 1 week long term
btc/usd bitcoin halving cycles
tether totalmarket
Bitcoin Is DEAD ... again!the bottom is near ...
Bottom Signal Bucket List:
- retail is gone ... CHECK
- miner capitulation stage 1 ... CHECK
- most scammers busted ... CHECK
- most retail youtubers gone ... CHECK
- a lot of companies went bankrupt ... CHECK
- consumer media talking about "crypto-is-bad" ... CHECK
- remaining youtubers turn from "hope" and "sadness" to convinced "it's all over"-panic ... IN PROGRESS (stage progress: about 70 %)
- another fast and big drop to kill the last hope ... TO DO
- miner capitulation stage 2 ... TO DO
- consumer media talking about "crypto-is-dead" ... TO DO
- nobody is talking about crypto ... TO DO
- time to forget and forgive ... TO DO
- buy before retail come back ... TO DO
BTCUSD Falling Wedge ElaborationEach touch along the bottom line of the falling wedge has led to bullish results (green circles, vertical lines)
This is shown with the bars pattern tool
Falling Wedges are classified as bullish patterns due to their ability to break out bullishly once reaching a critical point, I have also shown this with a bars pattern in green
This is good for Bitcoin and an elaboration on my previous BTC falling wedge post
Below
Bitcoin - BTC and the KST cross❌below 0🚨🚨🚨Update:
Look at these KST cross❌below 0 in the past for Bitcoin 🚨🚨🚨
Except one bad signal October 2018 we had six beautiful buy signal for BTC with great gains followed
Crypto Nation - KST already crossed❌again
Let me know your thoughts in the comments🤗
⬇️⬇️⬇️
Likes and Follow for updates appreciated🤗
Disclaimer:
Not financial advice
Do your own research before investing
The content shared is for educational purposes only and is my personal opinion
BTCUSD Daily - Ichimoku AnalysisViewing the bear periods and emergence of red ichimoku following these bear periods
The red emergence is evident along each vertical dashed line
All recoveries lead to further ATH's
Daily BTCUSD ThoughtsIdea for BTCUSD
Showing two circles along bear trends, both with compatible double tops
What im waiting for is the move out of this slump we are in, it will be a sharp one (in green circle). As was the move back up to the trend line in the first circle.
A larger channel can be drawn in pale white.
Daily thoughts
Bottom is at 7k between February and March 2023Bottom is at 7k between February and March 2023
3 trend lines + 2 fib circles make a perfect star formation. The bottom is in the middle.
Trust me I'm a time traveler.
imgur.com
