BLX trade ideas
Bitcoin PnF ChartI think this chart goes some way to explain the bearish sentiment in some quarters, but if we are on a "Bull Run" it is also not hard to expect $48/48.5K as a realistic target in the near term!
*PnF = Point and Figure
school.stockcharts.com
BTC at $185k in Sept 2023Is a MELT UP bull run in the cards for the near future?
I believe it's very possible!
Then MEGA 2.5 years crash.
Bitcoin to $235,000Price projection based mainly on two indicators: Pi Cycle Hi Low and LMACD, 10 day chart. The peak of the next top is predicted by the value of the LMACD when it reaches the downtrend resistance line, and the percentage gain off of the lows price will have reached based on previous bull cycle percentage changes when LMACD is at that value. Timing is indicated by Pi Cycle and it looks like this blow off could happen quickly!
Bitcoin and Elliot playing in the waves of time!This chart by no means is a price prediction. It's a look into a possible future for bitcoin in the coming years based on Elliot wave theory. In this chart I am are assuming that Bitcoins next move is the start of wave 5 in Elliot wave theory. When ever it ends the theory states that a massive ABC correction will follow, which would kill the mania and be bitcoins first true BIG bear market. This correction ( crash ) would not only be devastating by price but also by time, as it would most likely last multiple years and be the longest bear market to date. It would physiologically kill the market, and it's this this bear market that would likely kill all the shit coins and show which projects will last for years to come. It's only a devastating crash like that would cleans the market of scams, that would then catapult all the survivors to the next level in the eventual impulse wave 3!
Time frame
My time frame for this to start is 2026 to 2029. It all depends on how long it takes for the first impulse wave of wave 5 takes.
How long will the bear market crash last?
The question that everyone would answered is the one question that no one can answer. It could be that some or most people might not see new highs for the rest of their natural lives... So 10 to 30 years... But I would say most likely 10 to 15 years would be in the cards.
What about adoption?
I believe that in this bear market is when the true adoption and the realization of the use and necessity of Bitcoin/blockchain/defi to the masses. This is where Bitcoin gains critical mass in my opinion, but it will take a long time. This is all hypothetical of course providing we haven't lost technology through war or any other interruptions.
This is my outlook for the next decade or so, but I might be getting ahead of my self.
Let me know what you think in the comment section down below.
Thanks for looking
*The only certainty is, that there is no certainty *
A possible Bearish Bitcoin ScenarioThis is my bearish scenario for Bitcoin in the short to medium term (Long-term, I remain bullish ).
In my opinion, it looks like BTC has been forming a descending triangle since the June 18th low.
Even though it looks as though BTC has broken out to the upside, I believe there is a possibility that this could be a false breakout.
If this is a false breakout and the price of BTC falls back into the triangle and breaks below support, I believe the price will eventually bottom down near $12k.
Although I believe this is possible, I would put the probability of it happening at 30% to 40%.
With all of the macroeconomic turmoil we have been seeing lately, Bitcoin has actually held up pretty well.
But my belief is that we have not seen the worst of it yet. I feel there is a chance that the stock market has not yet bottomed, and we could see another leg lower.
If this is true, it most likely would pull BTC down with it.
As I said, I remain bullish long-term but don't expect the next bull market to begin until sometime in 2024.
short btc down to 1000this looks like when compared to the bvol indicator that we could see a rejection off the parralell channel and drop like a stone to 10k over the next few months shrting all the way
Very long term BTC viewAfter this crash, we can finally admit that the 4 year cycle theory is still valid !
The lengthening cycle theory was actually bullshit.
Diminishing return and diminishing losses are also playing out pretty well.
I'm going to save this chart for future reference,
let me know what you think !
PS: obviously I think the bottom is already in now !
Long Term Trend Analysis With Pivot PointsJust doodling. Trying to work out wen bear market is over and where moon is.
Vertical purple dots = halving
$170,000 in 2025? Moar adjusted with inflation?
BTC RoadmapNow we have the 200 EMA on the 2 weeks' time frame companied with the lower support line of the channel that make very strong support level, and with the current world economic circumstances the movement to upside will be very slow.
We have to touch the heavy resistance of the 20 EMA and 50 EMA first then will back test the 200 EMA again then break the 50 EMA at 30k and holding there for a while upto 50k.
The real movement will start with the beginning of March 2024 which will start our bull market and this will take around 550 days to reach the target between 320-440k at first of september 2025.
Let's hope this will go like the above scenario without any upcoming world war :D :D
BTCUSD Fibonacci Time zonesI have drawn a Fibonacci time zone for each cycle from the top to the point the bottom is reached. After this, the Fibonacci sequence begins to count.
I am starting at the top of 2011 to the bottom at the end of 2011, and these time zones count in vertical black lines.
After this, I drew another Fibonacci time zone from the top of 2014 to the bottom in 2015, and here again, a new count starts and is visible in dashed lines.
Finally, from the top of 2017 to the bottom of 2018, I once again drew a Fibonacci timezone, which is visible in the dotted line. Based on the Elliot Wave principle, in which waves 1, 5, 21, and 89 are cycle peaks, and waves 2, 8, 34, and 144 are complete market cycles.
When I apply this principle to the drawn fib time zone tool described above, I conclude that it gives pretty accurate insight into when possible tops and bottoms are set; each number of each illustrated fib tool is in a different subdivision and grade.
For example, the 3 indicates when the price will reach an all-time high for the first time after a bear market; I marked this in orange.
Red indicates a top of a bull market, and ditto for 13 and 21.
Number 8 shows the bottom of the bear market.
We are again at point 8, where a bottom would be set. In my view, Bitcoin is getting ready for another first impulsive wave of a new trend.
In my Elliott Wave count, in 2019 to 14k wave 1, ABC correction with wave C completed in March 2020. This was followed by an impulsive wave 3 ending in early 2021 and then a truncated fifth in November 2021.
Bitcoin's Probable Wavemap: $113K to $5KWhile Bitcoin's fate is unwritten, considering its historical, all-time price action there are certain signals that we should be able to gather, based solely on its continuous price action. Over the last few months, the wave count for BTC has been a bit muddy at best but should we be where I think we are, the Digital King will be soon on its way towards a new all-time high precisely in the range of $113K (based on BTC's all-inclusive wavemapping).
Though this hypothetical pending pump will be euphoric for many of us retail traders, from where I sit, the unorthodox ATH will amount to nothing more than a sucker's rally. The days of enormous Bitcoin growth are on ice until the current corrective phase finishes. Bitcoin enthusiasts across the world are happy that the downward-swing is signaling the end of the #CryptoWinter. I definitely look forward to the #CryptoSpring as well, but I am not very optimistic that that the mid-term (3-5 years) forecast will result in the bulls favor!
We could see seasonal swings of winter > spring > fall ...
#CryptoWinter = 2021-2022
#CryptoSpring = 2022-2024
#CryptoFall = 2024-2027?
Traders that have numbly relied on the Halvening to be the catalyst for Bitcoin's new growth cycle will likely be in for a rude awakening during the #CryptoFall. If/when Bitcoin Bulls are unable to maintain its current 5 year trend line, its heavy RSI divergence (since February 2021) should/could force a deep, healthy correction. Before Bitcoin is able to achieve more high-rate growth, it must first withstand a very probable, mind-blowing 93% correction from the likely ranges of $113K to $5K.
BTC is ready for a BIG MOVE in the next monthThere are eery similarities to the 2018 bear market with BTC having gone quiet for 129 days, since this year's low on the 16th June.
In 2018, we had a period of 143 days from the local low on the 24th June, to the capitulation triggered on the 14th Nov. A further move down of -46% was the result.
However, history rhymes but doesn't usually repeat. So could we in fact be in the accumulation phase, similar to 2018 directly after the capitulation?
Have a look at the 108 day period from the 2018 low on 15th Dec to the breakout on the 2nd Apr 2019, where there was a period of relative inactivity, just like the one we're going through now.
When we look purely at like for like similarities, the capitulation scenario seems more likely. But that seems all too easy to anticipate. With the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both finding potential macro lows in the last two weeks, perhaps we are coming to the end of the accumulation phase, and about to make a big move up?
Either way, I'm going to be ready for both scenarios!
BTCUSD: Bitcoin Prepares for New All-Time High Near $99.4KBy or during Spring 2024, Bitcoin should be near its next destination within the expected price itinerary ($99.4K). After taking a Beary Bad beatdown over the past 8 months, the gloomy sentiment of further capitulation has settled within the minds of many retail traders. Making the timing ripe for the market to feast.
According to the waves we've witnessed from June until now, I on the other hand think that Bitcoin has instead taken all the abuse it will allow from the Bears, for now.
With a 73% reduction in value from its current all-time high at $70K, price action has seemingly formed a vey sharp zig-zag wave downward. Based on my personal wave count from Bitcoin's very first all-time low candle, I think the macro pattern spells out a pending pump for the Digital King.
Forming what I believe to be a Leading Diagonal from June's bottom price at $17.6K and ultimately pushing up to the range of $25K, the Digital Surf Gang and I were totally expecting a deep dive back to the range of $18-$20K for a major test and a likely level of discovered macro support. If I had to be more specific on the expected support level, I'd guess that it comes near $20.1K, in a matter of hours from now. With an apparent Leading Diagonal in Wave 1 (of a hypothetical Wave A), I expect Wave 3 of said Wave A to become extended in form. This extension would likely get Bitcoin back above $40K by October of this year (2022).
Looking beyond the nearest term pump, I believe that Bitcoin will reach the $99.4K mark by Spring of 2024 . As you can see on my chart, though I'm confident that a new all-time high comes, it'll likely only be a big trap as the ascending move would be due to come in corrective form, instead of impulsive. Not too long from now, many traders and investors will better understand why it is better to 🏄 than to #hodl (if they haven't already).
GOLD not looking good XAU/USDnot looking to good IMO, Got bearish Diversion on very high time scale, The ,momentum is clearly waning lower BUT I have seen technical be completely ignored
$btc Weekly Analysis Historically, price between these green lower level consolidation is a low risk buy for long term hodlers. But as you can clearly see, bitcoin is heading for lower and lower volatility until one day the trend breaks.
If you scroll right you can see the bull band and bear band come to a point.... what will happen then God only knows. If lower band breaks and we retouch the previous resistance at 7k, obviously my statement is void because my trend lines are broke.
Also the whole c0vid-crash is so weird to me, was it a red herring, does the support price achieved (around) 3/18/20 still hold value even though it could be a 'red herring'? I say absolutely it matters and we should incorporate that support price in our charting and calculations.
DISCLAIMER======= ' [ ]
My Log regression is not calculated with anything but the curve tool, please take it with a grain of salt, if i have any algebra friends with knowledge of logarithmic regression please feel free to reach out as your input would be greatly appreciated.
reeeePast performance is not an indicator... You know the drill
But it's interesting to see that every cycle has its stages and which stages we're at
Things might change with ETH's merge though
Bitcoin Halving Bull and Bear RunsThis chart identifies the last 3 bitcoin halvings and what happened to the bitcoin market immediately following the halving and shortly after it. What do you think crypto markets will do when the next halving occurs in 2024?
BTC 3-montly chart - what does it look like?12 years after the origin of BTC
12 years of massive gains
Never far below the 200 weekly ma
Will this ever end in a correction?
What we know:
-BTC makes nice elliot wave patterns 1-2-3-4-5
-BTC makes elliot wave correctional paterns ABC
-BTC retraces after a 12345 to 61% of leg 4-5
This has happened all 3 normal bull runs with tops 2011-2014-2017
And the composition of these 3 bull runs makes 1 big 12345 wave pattern.
And this pattern has not yet been to the 61% of leg 4-5, instead we got a higher push to 60K, what makes it a elliot irregular flat pattern.
Now the question is will we go to 61% of leg 4-5, which is around 1K.
In my opinion this is possible,
-The crypto hype might be a bit over for some time, every plumber, painter and carpenter has bought in in the mean time.
-The economy and inflation could drive people to sell
-We are still mostly using the banks.
-There's RSI divergence on the 3 montly chart
-There's a sell on the market god indicator, the first one ever.
-The 200 weekly ma and 50 montly ma supports are getting weaker and weaker
The road to 1 K will not be a straight line, we will bump on the +/- 20K and later on on the trendline from 20K-14K top.
But I think that's inevitable that the market has to cool down a bit, with this all in mind.
Cycles of BitcoinIn weekly time units and in logarithmic scale, we can see that the cycles of Bitcoin have been based on technical support since 2010. This support gave way only once during the panic of the world stock exchanges in March 2020, due to the Covid 19 pandemic. This representation shows that Bitcoin is probably on the low of the current cycle (end of cycle) and that it will never return below $17,500, except in the event of a new global crisis which could cause the price to fall below its historical support.
The same analysis done in February 2019:
My analysis on the end of the current bear market:
BTC looking to cross the 21 SMAin 4-6 Weeks we will hopefully see BTC cross the 21 SMA as it has done historically at market bottoms.
BTC Puell Multiple chartingSo I noticed Benjamin Cowen and our beloved scammer fortflies using this "Puell Multiple" chart and my somewhat educated eye noticed some channeling and divergences happening. Just an interesting chart, avoid taking this to the bank
Btc 2x strong suport and rezist with perfrct balance on price. But when Broken trendline , we can go on next target.
