BLX: What's the worst case scenario? Zero, but if crypto does collapse, everyone including myself will learn the the hard way it's not easy to get rich quick. That being said, taking a look at the weekly timeframe Bitcoin just got a violent bounce off the weekly logarithmic regression bands, and another bounce off the .236 fib level of the pitchfork.
Regardless, losing the 1.618 fib is a back breaker for the bulls, and should open the trap door for capitulation. There are bullish divergences, but it's not off a significant fib level, VPOC, or support, so I don't believe the bottom is in yet.
Every bitcoin bear market, Bitcoin has wicked or overshot the lowest bound of the regression bands which is currently at $11,000. In August 2015, bitcoin did overshoot the regression bands to a tune of 27%. Applying that to today, the absolute lowest bitcoin could go based on historical data is ~$8,000. 2.618 fib extension so happens to be near $8,000 as well.
LTF:
SPX is close to topping imo, if BTC can get to $17,000-$17,200, Golden Pocket + Volume Liquidity Area, that will be a good short imo.
Not a big fan of on chain data, but the number of wallets holding 10+ bitcoin is increasing as the price of bitcoin is decreasing, so that's interesting to note.
I still have my eyes set at the golden pocket, 100M MA, between $10,000-$12,000. The most amount of consecutive bearish monthly Heikinashi Candles bitcoin has ever notched is 14 months. We are currently in month 12 with November ending in a few days. Now is the time to start paying attention to crypto full time.
