BTC 3-montly chart - what does it look like?12 years after the origin of BTC
12 years of massive gains
Never far below the 200 weekly ma
Will this ever end in a correction?
What we know:
-BTC makes nice elliot wave patterns 1-2-3-4-5
-BTC makes elliot wave correctional paterns ABC
-BTC retraces after a 12345 to 61% of leg 4-5
This has happened all 3 normal bull runs with tops 2011-2014-2017
And the composition of these 3 bull runs makes 1 big 12345 wave pattern.
And this pattern has not yet been to the 61% of leg 4-5, instead we got a higher push to 60K, what makes it a elliot irregular flat pattern.
Now the question is will we go to 61% of leg 4-5, which is around 1K.
In my opinion this is possible,
-The crypto hype might be a bit over for some time, every plumber, painter and carpenter has bought in in the mean time.
-The economy and inflation could drive people to sell
-We are still mostly using the banks.
-There's RSI divergence on the 3 montly chart
-There's a sell on the market god indicator, the first one ever.
-The 200 weekly ma and 50 montly ma supports are getting weaker and weaker
The road to 1 K will not be a straight line, we will bump on the +/- 20K and later on on the trendline from 20K-14K top.
But I think that's inevitable that the market has to cool down a bit, with this all in mind.
BLX trade ideas
Cycles of BitcoinIn weekly time units and in logarithmic scale, we can see that the cycles of Bitcoin have been based on technical support since 2010. This support gave way only once during the panic of the world stock exchanges in March 2020, due to the Covid 19 pandemic. This representation shows that Bitcoin is probably on the low of the current cycle (end of cycle) and that it will never return below $17,500, except in the event of a new global crisis which could cause the price to fall below its historical support.
The same analysis done in February 2019:
My analysis on the end of the current bear market:
...GOOD ADVICE = FREE......AND COULD SAVE LOT'S OF MONEYHello friends, no long stories, I have this chart for some time and would like to share it today, because otherwise it will take maybe even more time, to get back to 1K.
All the moon boys should sell their coins.
NO BITS, NO BUTS just SELL. I have more things to do.
#BTC Critical Trend Tomorrow (October 13.2022) Inflation rate will be published and if inflation rate less then expectation, we can see a pump on bitcoin. Furthermore, decrease at inflation will cause less interest.So, 30k we can talk in this situation.
But if inflation rate will be more then expectations GG
Reality Check GG Bitcoin I had my fun, stop being delusional, and come back to reality. on all large timeframe, BTC looks bearish and BTC already had a good run from 3.3k all the way to 64k sorry if you missed out. Also, I don't care if the instantiations are in, those are going to be the same guys who dump on you and make you all bagholders. Play it smart and don't FOMO at the top. Here is some advice if everyone thinks something is going to happen in reality it does not happen, don't end up as a statistic. I will look for a rebuy only at 42k if the bulls are willing to step in, besides that I wish you all the best of luck and I will keep you all updated. :)
BTC - Wen The Next Floor Sweep?So I decided to draw my favorite tool (Fib Retracement Tool) seriously this shit ain't even funny! Wuts not funny about this if my wave count is correct which I know is but could be wrong is that the Fib 0.32 will always be touched in a correction after wave 5! Deal with it.
Next Stop $25K BitcoinWARNING!!!!
Chart may induce seizures
I have some serious chart shame about this one but IDC my point is still valid (I moved my magic bold white line )
I think I'm calling it, Bitcoin bear over. as soon as the weekly moving averages started trending up @ the yellow arrows, despite all of what's going on in the world I turned bullish. I'm scared.
Feelings check:
-70%/30% lows are in. (in bitcoin)
-50/50 we retest lows again similar to 2015 (even if spx makes new lows Bitcoin will hold the door)
One more US rate hike to come
30% chance we see a 2000/ 2008 type bear market. I will be selling 25K no matter what
80% chance we don't see Oversold US Oil as an indication of market bottom like other bear markets due to huge supply issues (Even though the demand destruction is huge) this will likely lead to higher inflation for longer and the FED will be forced to admit defeat with the interest rate hikes because of the_________ breaking.
Buy bitcoin Nov13 2022 to Jan 13 2023...Or right now...And update to one of my previous bitcoin cycle charts.
I KNOW ITS VERY BUSY, I HAVE ADHD! (and my charts are for me anyways.. i know what i mean)
Over simplification:
Bitcoin bottoms Mid Jan 13 2015, Mid Dec 2018, so now it must bottom Mid Nov 2022
Bitcoin still only down 70%ish needs to go down >80%ish
All this correlates with my magic thick white trendline of the BTCUSD bottoms during bear market, seems to always break down under that trend line indication VERY oversold (capitulation)
You(ie: me ) wanted an easy button, here it is!
Over simplified Bull Case:
My Dashed green and blue Fib lines from last cycle = Buy (doesn't work for 2015 cycle at all...)
Miner capitulation ( hashrate MA cross) = buy
Bitcoin didn't go up as much as previous cycles so it wont go down as much
BTC - one more thing !Project last two corrections onto what we have today - and both of them end up on the $9k area - where the main supporting curve is, where the CME gap is and where the Binance US wick hit last year.
A lot of confluence there, based on history.
Bearish until then - even bounces won't change that.
BTC - a bit of retrospectionEvery correction (widely known as "bear market") of a parabolic BTC move ended up in a touch of the supporting curve - which is also flattening and bigger parabolic moves can now have bigger retracement periods. All of previous corrections (which happened during an on-going multimarket bubble growht!) have something in common - a support that finally got breached - since that moment - the price entered a consolidation period - for about 100 to max 300 days. A situation that hasn't occurred before was the covid crash, which looks like an excuse to form a bottom by touching that curve.
This time we are far away from it - setting some kind of resistance on $18k area, but I have no doubt it will get breached - the only question is if we will go higher and then dump in a Covid 2020 way, or will we gradually bleed out until reaching the bottom - my personal bottomest bottom sits at $8-9k.
Blx macro ending diagonal idea!Although we havent confirmed bottom yet we still have same legacy top trend line! BBlx has broken 21/233 ema bearish for the first time in history of weekly chart. I expect 10-13k bottom but we are near the 1-1 fib of our correction and historically corrections have bounced at the .786! Not claiming a bottom here but when we are finished correcting I think this Elliot wave count will hold true!
Rules for ending diagonal:
* Ending diagonals consist of 5 waves, labeled 1-2-3-4-5.
* Each wave subdivides into threes. Waves 1 and 4 overlap in price.
* Wave 3 can not be the shortest among waves 1, 3 and 5.
* Wave 1 is usually the longest, but not necessarily.
* Usually occurs in a wave 5 of an impulse and wave C of an A-B-C correction
BTC - 4 Yr Cycle Bottom/Top DatesOf course there is tons of economic uncertainty and this bear market is truly different, but based on the facts in the charts we can learn some key information. Based on our 4 year cycle theories this leads us to believe things will not be different as we are following our patterns perfectly.
Black arrow - This date range shows us that between 365-400 days our bottom will be put in from our cycle top. If this plays out this cycle, we should see a bear market bottom sometime around the end of December 2022. This would coincide with previous cycles and make since for tax purposes.
Blue arrow- The blue date range shows us that between 1100-1140 days after hitting our bear market bottom we reach our previous ATH. If we hit our bottom in December 2022 this would put us back to $65-69k around mid November 2024 which is right in line with US elections and the significance they have had in the past with crypto cycles.
Purple arrow- This date range shows us the the time from our bear market bottom to our next cycle peak. So far our past 2 cycles have been exactly 1064 days. If we hit our bear market bottom in December 2022 this should put our next cycle peak around the beginning of December 2025.
Again this is just a theory based on previous cycles. The dates are very correlated and make a lot of sense. I do not know what price our bear market bottom will be our next cycle top, but based on these trends I can tell you the date we might hit those key moments in the macro trend.
Pi Cycle bottom indicator is good in determining Bitcoin lowsThere are many metrics that a long term investor should consider in trying to time buying Bitcoin near bear market lows. One indicator is the Pi Cycle bottom indicator. This is the BLX daily chart which goes back to the Jan 2015 and Dec 2018 lows.
The 2015 Bitcoin bear market low was Jan 14th at $163.88. The Pi cycle bottom indicator showed that was exactly the day for Bitcoin's bear market bottom.
The 2018 Bitcoin bear market low was Dec 15th at $3148.33. The Pi cycle bottom indicator appeared one day after the Bitcoin bear market bottom.
The 2022 Bitcoin bear market low may have been June 18th at $17567. The Pi cycle bottom indicator appeared on July 13th, 25 days after what may have been the Bitcoin bear market bottom.
This is one of 10-15 on chain metrics I have followed to help time when to buy Bitcoin near bear market lows. I bought from late 2018 to July 2020. Now I have been buying Bitcoin since June 2022 by dollar cost averaging. I am a long term Bitcoin investor.