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Bitcoin - Is it Time to Panic?At the low yesterday, the price of Bitcoin was down a little over 27% from the all-time high in March. In previous bull market cycles, we have seen many corrections of 30% or more. As was the case in past cycle corrections, we are seeing a lot of panic selling. Another issue is being in over leveraged positions and getting stopped out during corrections. Unfortunately, many inexperienced market participants are not familiar with Bitcoin's past price history. So, when we experience a large correction, they panic and sell when history has shown that these corrections are great buying opportunities. But, unfortunately, past history has shown us that many people will be too scared to buy during this correction and many won't start buying again until the price of BTC is back up near it's all-time high. If you take the time to study Bitcoin's price history, it is very clear that Bitcoin has been running in 4-year market cycles. This is especially true for the last two market cycles. From bear market bottom to the next bear market bottom, the 2015 to 2018 market cycle was 1432 days in length, and the length of the 2018 to 2022 market cycle was 1438 days. Even the elapsed times between events (bottom to halving, halving to peak, and peak to bottom) during each of these cycles are very consistent. Obviously, this market cycle trend doesn't have to continue, but I believe that it will, at least for this cycle. If that is the case, then I wouldn't expect the post halving bull market to begin until October or November of this year. Looking back at the previous two cycles, the 2016 bull market started 259 days after the halving, and the 2020 bull market started 149 days after the halving. There is always a chance that I am totally wrong and the peak in March was the peak for this market cycle and it will be all downhill from here. But I believe the probability of that is very low. I believe we could see a lot more volatility and possibly even lower prices leading up to the post halving bull market. The German and the US governments still hold significant amounts of BTC which they could sell adding to downside pressure. There is also the Mt Gox BTC that could add to selling pressure driving the price of BTC lower. But in the coming months I believe any excess selling of BTC will be absorbed by the market and eventually the current bearish sentiment will flip to Bullish. I will be using this correction and the time between now and this fall to increase my position sizes. But this is just how I am approaching this market cycle; every investor needs to do their own research and make their own decisions. I also make my decisions based on my long-term view and long-time horizon.
BNC:BLXLong
by Bigsky_Crypto
Is the Correction Over?In each cycle, from the bottom to the high in the pre-halving rally, #BTC has seen an increase of 330%-370%, followed by a minimum correction of -38% or, with the exception of the rule (pandemic), -62%. At this moment, a 38% correction means a price of $45,700, while a -62% correction means $27,900. However, I don't think we will see such a large correction now. #Bitcoin could drop below the $50k zone as there is a lot of liquidity waiting to be taken from there. The price from here could have reactions, but I don't think it will make a new ATH from the low at $53,700.
BNC:BLXLong
by TraderX10101
1
A very magical panoramic view of the Bitcoin cycle. A very magical panoramic view of the Bitcoin cycle. We can see that since Bitcoin began trading in the secondary market in 2010, three complete bull-bear cycles have been formed. Each bull market lasts about 152 weeks, and each bear market lasts about 52 weeks, that is, three years of bull market and one year of bear market. With the growth of the number of users and market value, the increase is smaller in each round. According to the previous three cycles, the end time of this bull market is late October 2025, so how high will it rise? Welcome to discuss.
BNC:BLX
by MercuryYoung
Bitcoin's Momentum Is Slowing Down (BLX Chart)As I'm sure you've noticed, my posts have really slowed down. I'm just focusing on other things in my life, and it's mostly been good. Some hard times very recently, but that's how it goes. I hope you are all alright and trading safely :) Now...to Bitcoin. Volume is declining overall as less actual Bitcoin is traded. Hardly any coins have been sent to exchanges, when compared with the past. Bulls say this is a good thing, due to less supply being available, which in theory pushes up price. However, if demand is lacking overall, there is not much that can be done. Bulls therefore hope that the new ETF's provide enough demand to keep the all time highs coming. Momentum is also slowing down, hence the longer term monthly bearish divergences in the Ultimate Oscillator. It's interesting to note that the total crypto market cap (TOTAL) has not made a new all time high. Unless Bitcoin can get above its curved channel, growth will continue to slow down. For bulls, the hope is that Bitcoin continues to outperform traditional markets. We'll see what happens! Above, I've provided both long term bullish and long term bearish scenarios. As for what could send Bitcoin back to $3k or lower? It would probably involve forced selling, particularly by someone like Michael Saylor. On the weekly chart, it's possible Bitcoin is simply consolidating before the next leg up. Seller volume is declining. Unless we see a huge push down before this coming Sunday, it's very possible the recent lows are set and price will make a new all time high. There is also room to test some lower levels based on these trendlines: $53k and FWB:42K are major levels buyers would be defending if price drops lower. For now, $60k is being defended. Need a more convincing bounce though, to prove the selling is over. There are more options than that, but this is currently the way I'm looking at it. Doesn't mean I'll be right or wrong, but that's how it is! I'm trying to provide both bullish and bearish options so that my bias doesn't take over. I'm still positioning myself short. My opinion is that Bitcoin has a critical mass, or maximum price, and that there are some signs pointing to Bitcoin's over-saturation. This includes the lack of new addresses, decrease in volume, and lack of overall interest from the everyday person. The irony is that if all of a sudden everyone started talking about Bitcoin, we'd probably be near a top. So, you may take this as a bullish argument. Anyway, thank you for reading and for your support. This is not meant as financial advice. This is purely speculative!
BNC:BLXShort
by VictorCobra
1
Repeating Same LTF Pattern on HTF?Here's an idea I haven't seen proposed. What if we're repeating the same pattern we saw between approx 40-50k, on a higher timeframe and between 50-85k. Just like the blue pattern before it, it starts with a new high being made, then a low well above old highs, then a lower high followed by a higher low, then a higher high followed by a 2nd higher low (slightly lower than the previous higher low), finally a 3rd and significantly higher high followed be a strong lower low but still above old highs prior to the new high. Let's see if it happens again!
BNC:BLX
by dudebruhwhoa
$5 Entry: A Bittysweet Symphony(originally written October 2023) Bitcoin has dominated headlines iover the last decade+. From a logically defying concept crafted by Satoshi Nakamoto, to a collectively embraced path towards the future, the world’s first cryptocurrency is undeniable. Unless you’re Warren Buffet — or Horus. From humble beginnings at $0.01, at its fairly recent all-time high near $68K, Bitcoin increased in value by 6,192,134 times. Thats 4406 times more than the SPX’s all-time growth and 64,451 times more than Gold’s (based on chart history available from year 1834). Considering its historical dominance and the forward looking perspective from many of the world’s most renown investors, you’d think (and most do) that the momentum won’t ever cease. The explosive growth has been amazing and the fear of missing out is not only present for individuals, but also for global organizations and national government administrations too. As an Elliottician, after applying Elliott Wave Theory to Bitcoin’s all-time wave structure, I am a bit more cautious than the majority. These are some details I consider to be facts: 1) Bitcoin is not in an impulsive wave structure. 2) Bullish (upside) corrective waves commonly retrace to the 0.38, 0.618 or 0.786 fib level. 3) Since 2013, BTC’s Relative Strength Index has been in constant decline. As for my near and long term BTCUSD projections, I expect a couple of climatic things to happen: 1) Bitcoin achieves a new all-time high near the next halving in 2024. 2) Bitcoin fails to sustain the $100,000 price mark (if it even reaches that high). 4) Bitcoin makes a return below $10. Bitcoin’s wave structure is very similar to Luna Classic’s. The only differences I’ve been able to see is that Luna was in a regular zig-zag (ABC) formation and Bitcoin’s wave formation is very very likely a double zig-zag (WXY). Both forms are corrective and generally result in a very deep retracement.
BNC:BLXShort
by DigitalSurfTrading
Bitcoin - Could this be a Left Translated Market Cycle?There has been a lot of speculation that this current Bitcoin market cycle could end as a left translated cycle. This is most likely because Bitcoin surpassed the previous all-time high almost 1 month before the halving. This is the first time in Bitcoins short history that has happened. But, does this alone indicate that this will be an accelerated market cycle? From the bear market low on November 21st, 2022, it took only 16 months for BTC to set a new all-time high. Looking back though, during the 2011 to 2015 market cycle it took only 15 months from the bear market low for BTC to set a new all-time high. But, even though this cycle was abbreviated at just 3 years 2 months long the peak still occurred just after the 2 year mark. As you can see by the chart, the new all-time high was set after the halving but this is due to the halving occurring only 376 days after the previous bear market low. Looking at the 2015 to 2018 market cycle, the 2018 to 2022 market cycle, and the current market cycle you can see that the halvings occurred 543 days, 514 days, and 515 days after the previous bear market low. So, I guess the point I am trying to make is even though the new all-time high that was set on March 14th occurred much sooner than in the previous two cycles that alone doesn't mean that this will result in a left translated cycle. If we look at the elapsed time from the Nov. 2022 bear market low to the halving that just occurred it aligns more closely to the last two market cycles. Both of these market cycles were classic right translated 4-year cycles. An explaination for the early new all-time high could be due to the hype sorounding the spot Bitcoin ETFs as well as the subsequent trading of them. I'm not going to pretend to know where Bitcoin is going to go from here. It's very possible that we could end up with a market cycle that is completely different than the previous cycles. At some point I believe that the changing investor demographics will alter the market cycles. Another influence on the market cycles could be macroeconomic forces. Just this morning the May CPI data was released and came out lower than expected. As a result Bitcoin after being down 3.2% yesterday is now up over 3.5% today. But, even though BTC is up big today it is still stuck in the consolidation range and the $72k level still remains a formidable resistance that has rejected BTC five times over the last three months. But, as of now I am leaning towards this market cycle continuing the trend of the last two as a typical 4-year cycle. That is until I see more evidence that something has changed. If this market cycle is to follow the timing of the previous two I would either expect a prolonged period of range bound price action, lasting into the fall. Or a prolonged period of slowly rising prices lasting into the fall leading to the eventual blast off. Either way I remain extremely bullish long term and look forward to what lies ahead.
BNC:BLXLong
by Bigsky_Crypto
Bitcoin and the end of the bull cycle!At this moment, many might start reading this article thinking that the bull cycle is over, but that’s not the reason I’m writing. My intention here is to provide you with advance notice of the temporal zones where you should seriously consider realizing profits from your hold portfolios and even be prepared to look at selling in the market. In the last cycles, this pattern has repeated, allowing us to replicate the projections. In the first cycle back in 2012, after marking the bottom and the Halving, the price moved parabolically in two structures: the first, marked in aqua green, represents the post-Halving effect; the second, in red, represents the full euphoria effect. This behavior repeated in the 2016 cycle and also in the 2019 cycle: What’s most interesting is that, in all cases, the time between the market bottom and the Halving is exactly the same as the time between the Halving and the market top. This is what I want to share with you: the points where the temporal zone suggests a possible inflection of movement or phase change. This shows us that until mid-March 2025, we will be experiencing the post-Halving phase, and after this phase, we will enter the euphoria zone. The possible inflection point of the cycle should occur around mid-September 2025. This study is based on analyzing the Fibonacci temporal zone and projecting the cycle based on symmetrical time behaviors from the past. This is not a guarantee that we will follow the exact same trajectory, but rather an additional basis for you to measure your exposure time to the cycle.
BNC:BLX
by leandrosander_
BTC Power Law Analysis: Convergence of Slope Models This chart shows two sets of bands overlaid. The first, with blue bands and white central line, tracksBitcoin's price movements through predefined values associated with the BTC Power Law. The code I used came from @savingface on Discord, where it was scripted to adheres closely to Bitcoin Power Law slope observed by Giovanni Santostasi, and written about on Medium. It overlays a set of bands derived from moving averages that take in all of BTC's historical price data. Notably, when the x axis is also made logarithmic, the Power Law curve becomes linear. It is a limitation of TradingView that only the y axis can be viewed in logarithmic mode, so we are unable to appreciate the logarithmically linear growth of BTC in this chart. Interestingly, as the bands based on moving averages become smoother with lengthening history of Bitcoin, we see a highly evident convergence between the BTC Power Law bands and the slope derived from moving averages. This highlights an increasing consistency between both models that strengthens confidence in the BTC Power Law slope as a predictor. Traders can leverage this information to identify significant levels in market expansion and contraction. At the time of writing, we appear to be breaching the central line of each slope. My prediction is that we move up a full two lines, but at least one, during the continuation of the current bull market.
BNC:BLXLong
by ThousandX_Trader