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The Toppiest Top is in the CHARTS. BTC TO 200K OCTOBER 2025The chart shows the BTC cycles - green box is the bull run which usually lasts about 1064 days from absolute bottom to new ATH. Followed by the bear market marked by a red box lasting about 364 days. The new ATH each cycle is also historically 75-78 days after halving event. A fibonacci extension drawn from absolute bottom to ATH in the 2nd cycle and from ATH to bottom, shows that the 3.382 level predicted the next ATH for the 3rd cycle. Doing the same fib extensions in the 3rd cycle give us the red circle area. These 2 fib levels combined with 78~ days post halving and 1064~ days post absolute bottom show us that around October 13 2025 we could see a new ATH at anywhere between 176k to maximum of 225k.
BNC:BLXLong
by lemister22
60-70k still in the cards for winter Bitcoin Sideways with no bounce until spring, then 150k; or heavy whipsaw volatility to kickstart bullrun to 150k? Either way i see BTC at a 6 figure price point later this year. The setup though, is unknown, given my 2 speculations above. Although there was a scare this past wk, btc creen bollinger bands on the weekly have remained in the heavy upward pressure position, this will drag price up yet another week. Cant call bear until next sundays close. So we remain bullish. If upward pressure ceases; will update. Unlikely.
BNC:BLXLong
by creengrack
Will Bitcoin Hit ATH Before Halving?I posted a Log Regression when #Bitcoin was 15k. I publish now when it is 62k. So CRYPTOCAP:BTC has already done x4. What now? Shall we break the ATH? Let's consider the pros and cons. This is why yes: ➕Increasing global liquidity. ➕So far, positive flow from ETFs. Here's why not: ➖Strong overbought ➖Previously, there was no ATH breakout before the halving. And immediately after, the "sell in May" season. ➖Strong sales began (in medium wallets), because many people consider ATH a good zone to sell the part. 💡Conclusion. If we do not break the ATH in the next 2 months, it will likely happen in the autumn. In the base case scenario, I only expect a test ATH unless ETF flows and liquidity increase significantly.
BNC:BLXShort
by FeelsStrategy
1
MicroStrategy - Bitcoin Holdings Chart & Purchase HistoryPrices and volumes of Bitcoin purchases at MicroStrategy Over 9k BTC at an average price of 58000. 19452 Btc at $52765. Even these whales are buying at the tops and sitting in the minuses for years The largest holder of Bitcoin on the planet is not Microstrategy , but the Chinese government, cryptoanalysts found (twitter.com/cryptoquant_com). In 2019, Chinese authorities confiscated 194 thousand #BTC , 833 thousand #ETH and other coins as a result of an investigation into PlusToken fraud. To this day, the confiscated crypto lies in the wallets of China's national treasury. In comparison, MicroStrategy has about 130,000 bitcoins . 27 march MicroStrategy repaid its $205M Silvergate loan at a 22% discount . As of 3/23/23, $MSTR acquired an additional ~6,455 bitcoins for ~$150M at an average of ~$23,238 per #bitcoin & held ~138,955 BTC acquired for ~$4.14B at an average of ~$29,817 per bitcoin . Best regards EXCAVO
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BNC:BLX
by EXCAVO
44
Bitcoins tumultuous path to 130kAs we entered the bull cycle after exiting the red bubble, the clock started. We have measured each bull market gains since the beginning of bitcoin, and the factor is 1.618. Formula is as follows; To find the next number in the pattern, let's examine the relationships between the given numbers: 297 ÷ 183 = 1.626 51.8 ÷ 30.8 = 1.678 10 ÷ 6 = 1.667 1.4 ÷ 0.8 = 1.75 The pattern appears to involve dividing each number by a decreasing, but relatively close value. The differences between these division results are not consistent. However, there seems to be a general trend of division with values around 1.6 to 1.7. Let's continue this pattern and divide 1.4 by a value close to 1.6 to 1.7: 1.4 ÷ 1.65 ≈ 0.848 So, the next number in the pattern could be approximately 0.848. 848% is the next gain percentage of next bull cycle. Thats the easy part; the factor we cannot relate to is TIME. We are left to charting fractals and Trying to find ratios between previous cycles and bull markets. My calculations say Nov '24. Election time. I titled this tumultuous because though we have the ability to go straight up and God candle, I think that is unlikely as 70k resistance is strong. I think the faster we go up and touch that resistance (40k in 2wks) the quicker and deeper the downturn would be, we see our purple line stretching diagonally to november, its not straight up and down like the previous bull markets. Leaving us to infer we could have a deep ABC wave depending how quick we touch 70k from here (35k)
BNC:BLXLong
by creengrack
Slow bleed up $BTC (weekly)How is the bull market treating everyone? Not as fast as you might like? I feel you My creentrend pressure script which is free and open source on my page has printed (x) and held that stance for multiple weeks now, making bitcoin have that upward wave. The creen trend pressure signals are (in one part) the relation of price to the upper and lower bollinger bands, which are slowed to 55. These printed signals signify the impending move of bitcoin, as there is no faking the move that is already happening.
BNC:BLXLong
by creengrack
3
BTC Long Term OutlookLooks pretty straight forward for me. Another bull run in horizon. Below are my reasons for this belief: Fundamentals - Next halving is coming in just over a year - May 2, 2024 - There were a few black swan events in the past year and price of btc managed to keep very strong still. - The black swan events occurred due to human fault, and the trust in the traditional systems are broken. People are realizing slowly that crypto is actually much more secure and people friendly compared to the centralised traditional systems. - Price of everything has risen in the past year to all time highs; houses, cars, lands, even groceries. Inflation is real. And to be able to hedge against inflation you need to but assets which are scarce by design - Bitcoin and Ethereum. (I expect Ethereum to be better in terms of hedge against inflation in the long term tbh - due to the new token economics after the merge) On-Chain Data - On-chain data shows the wallet addresses with equal or more than 0.1 btc balance and 1 btc balance are at an all time high. - Address with equal or more than 1000 btc are at Sep 2019 levels, I take this positively as there are 440 less whales to dump their btc - all time high on this data was on Feb-March 2021 which is the first top of the 2021 run. We can easily see that a lot of whales decided to sell out and probably triggered the bear run down. People have been accumulating and it shows by the amount of smaller addresses (retail) popping up and hitting all time high. Indicators ACMF (money flow) - still under 0, which is ok considering we are in a bear market. On the weekly chart it shows the only times we have had this low was close to the bottom of the cycles. TLL RSI - One of the longest oversold stays on this indicator. I expect this indicator to make a move up soon and that will be one of our serious que in the short-medium term to validate this idea. Hope you enjoyed it, if you did, please boost and comment what you think about it. Thanks
BNC:BLXLong
by TheAlchemist888
1
UPDATED $BTC Quantitative ChartDear Traders and CryptoLovers! I am saddened I need to update this QUANTITATIVE Chart as a tradingView Mod removed my last post for having a logo... but rules are rules. If you need to prove my awesomeness and accuracy of the last chart, I will add the post to Medium, and you'll also find it on social media - links at the bottom of this post and on my profile. My thoughts... I'm about to speak Elliott Wave - so if you are not a fan, skip this part. BTC is likely in the 1st subwave of the PRIMARY 3 of the Supercycle Wave structure In the current wave pattern, the current wave is one primary wave of the 3rd supercycle. This needs to pass the ATH to confirm 1 of 3 Supercycle - which it almost has, so here we are! 1st of 3rd PRIMARY WAVES - SUPERCYCLE! 3rd SUPERCYCLE WAVE Formation corrections in the larger pattern 'should' be faster as Elliott wave describes a 3rd wave as the swiftest and usually longest. Taking into account the 4-year cycle, the 5th subwave of Primary 1 of the 3rd wave Supercycle should be completed by 21st March, allowing for 1-2 months correction for the Primary 2 of the 3rd Wave Supercycle with this 2nd wave bottom formed before APRIL -MAY 2024 or before the bitcoin halving event. Coincidence or not, there is a LUNAR ECLIPSE on 24-25 MARCH :) QUANTITATIVE CHART I have adjusted my idea starting from August 22, 2022, as more data becomes available. This chart shows the 4-year cycle broken down and event timing, which are accurate. QUANTITATIVE CHART Scroll down to the last idea, as this preceded the taken-down post. SUPERCYCLE WAVE PROJECTION - Using "LISANACCI" I have projected the following - Depending on wave measurements as we progress well into 2025 we could see a high to over 200K - super bullish or lower wave targets as shown on the chart when more data is available. I will update as the chart progresses, and if you want my daily BTC updates, my information is in the footer and on my profile.
BNC:BLXLong
by LisaNEdwards
BTC ROAD TO 200K: Its Not Magic Just Follow The Pattern Pinky: Its too early for a rally, Perky; we need a correction... Perky: Hold my bear, Pinky; you'll get it when I'm high. PS: This chart is a continuation of our previous BTC chart published on May 16, 2022, with slight modifications; a link to the previous chart is below. Chart Keys Orange Horizontal Line|~Prox Halving Dates Yellow Bars: Range From Halving to ATH Pink Bars: Range From ATH to Bottom Red Channel: Period of Accumulation Not so much has changed in our chart since the last time, with prices taking shape as earlier expected. Currently, we've seen the price scale through the accumulation phase after hitting the lows of <$16,000 in Nov 2022. Highlights: 1. From charts, we can see it takes bitcoin exactly 3 years from the last ATH to get back to ATH levels again, as seen in 2013–2016, 2017–2020, and 2021–2024. 2. Usually, breaking ATH signifies the start of the MARK-UP phase in the cycle movement. 3. In the past, ATH is usually broken after halving has taken place, but this time we may be seeing a price break past ATH before halving, which is a massive change and huge indication for exponential growth. These changes might be due to Bitcoin ETF effects on the macro perspective. 4. After halving, we have approx. 1 year until the new ATH, and if the trend continues the way it is right now, we may see massive upside change. My Expectations for the Cycle: Usually, i base my BTC price expectations on several factors; 1. Total Market Cap: In the last cycle, we saw a 3X Mkt Cap growth from the previous ATH of about MIL:1T in 2017 to $3T in 2020. If the same applies, we might see net Mkt Cap grow from $3T in the last cycle to >$9T by 2025. This is very possible, as ETFs, futures, and mass awareness are already in place. 2013-2017 Cycle: Mass Awareness Propelled by Retail Investors. 2017-2021 Cycle: Futures Market, Institutional Acceptance by Mixed Retail/Institutions. 2021–2025 Cycle: ETF, Futures, Institutions, by All Parties. Honestly, this might turn out to be the biggest cycle rally since the 2013–2017 cycle. All things being equal, at $9T, Mkt Cap bitcoin dominance will likely be around 40–50%, which should set it at $T3.8–4.5 and likely put the price in the range of $178k to 238k/BTC. MASSIVE!!! 2. Halving Effect: This year, the halving effect should set the mining reward at 3.125 BTC per block, which would increase the average cost of mining from the previous $19k to about $38k. Naturally, this will set the new average fair price for BTC at $40,000 and, of course, the market value at $60,000. Based on history: 2013 Cycle: >9000% Growth from Halving Price 2017 Cycle: >3000% Growth from Halving Price 2021 Cycle: >1000% Growth from Halving Price 2025 Cycle: >300% Growth from Halving Price??? As seen above, I'm expecting a 300% growth from the halving price, which likely should be from $60k to $180k, which is a fair value and tallies with our Mkt Cap Expectations above. This makes a lot of sense as naturally supply and demand tend to kick in with full force after halving, and considering ETF in play, the demand will be massive, coming from large institutional investors, hedge funds, asset management firms, BTC intrinsic market trading being the best performing asset of the year, and so on. PS: Chart will be updated after halving in April Honestly, this might turn out to be the biggest cycle rally since the 2013–2017 cycle. Disclaimer: This chart analysis is purely done with price action, personal observation, thoughts, and halving cycles; it does not take into consideration any fundamentals and should only be used for educational/entertainment purposes, not to be construed as a form of financial advice
BNC:BLXLong
by nicholasilechie
BTC/USD Elliott Wave Analysis Monthly ChartHere is my Elliott Wave analysis of past cycle tops and bottoms along with projections for future wave counts. We can see some very interesting fractals regarding the date ranges between the Bitcoin halving events and the corresponding tops and bottoms. Bitcoin's very first halving event was in November 2012 and it took ~365 days to reach the market cycle top followed by ~516 days to hit the market cycle bottom. It's interesting that starting with the second halving event in July 2016 the fractal reversed in that it now took Bitcoin ~518 days to reach it market cycle top followed by taking ~365 days to reach its market cycle bottom. With this historical fractal in mind, I'm projecting that ~518 days after the upcoming halving in Apr 2024 we will see the Bitcoin price completing the Wave 3 count and marking the market cycle top at ~$79K. This top aligns with Steve's 5.3 theory and would also align with the white median line on Steve's Bear Market Tops & Bull Market Tops indicator if it maintains its current trajectory. Now from this top, I'm projecting that Bitcoin will complete the Wave 4 count ~365 days after hence marking the market cycle bottom at ~$31K. This bottom aligns with the upper green band on Steve's Bear Market Tops & Bull Market Tops indicator if it continues its current trajectory and is also critical support. Also with this fractal, I'm projecting that ~518 days after the halving in April 2028 we will see the Bitcoin price completing the Wave 5 count and marking the market cycle top at ~149K. This top aligns with the lower red band on Steve's Bear Market Tops & Bull Market Tops indicator if it continues its current trajectory. Happy trading!
BNC:BLXLong
by nestorsocoolitshot
1