ADBE34 trade ideas
ADBE - Make or Break ?This is the possible trajectory of ADBE , based on the tech sector/NDX trajectory ADBE follows.
Downside target #1 500
If it doesn’t hold , we can see 380
If it holds and if the tech sector is strong, we can see 660.
Target #1 580
Target #2 660
Watch The Movement Before Earnings, It Will Determine The Move!I am paying close attention to the large volume gap that looks like it is pulling price to it.
I want it to touch that lower level of the gap before earnings and if it does it will ROCKET UP!!!
ADBE.NYSE Adobe 30% Upside Possible Fibonacci Trend Cloud Study.Adobe's recent correction to the 0.5 Fibonacci level is seen with a possible reversal pending should the 0.618 be broken to the upside.
The Chart should be self explanatory. Note: These Predictions are normally 75% accurate, so there is a 25% Possibility for further downside also.
Dedication will be required and is a +1 year Study.
As always, please get a few outside Expert's Advice before taking Trade or Investment Decisions.
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Regards Graham.
Risks and rewards of buying ADBE nowThe fun or frustrations about buying shares is if you get it right , you make profits. But it also works the opposite ways. The longer you hold your losses the more emotional you become, blaming yourself for the bad decision (impatience, wrong capital allocation, too greedy, not sufficient research, etc).
One thing we need to know as investors is stocks do not move in a straight line up. It has its ups and downs. In the short term, the market is irrational and with it may not have anything to do with the company fundamentals. Thus, it is deemed as an opportunity to those who knows what they are doing and equally frustrates those who merely follow headlines or influencers' leads.
Invest with a long time horizon and choose your stocks wisely.
Adobe - Preparing a multi year breakout!NASDAQ:ADBE has been consolidating for some time and is definitely ready for a breakout.
Adobe is a stock, which is clearly heading higher on a macro perspective. Just two months ago, Adobe actually retested an important horizontal structure and managed to create bullish confirmation, followed by a reversal towards the upside. Eventually, Adobe will also break out of the ascending triangle formation, which has been forming over the past 5 years.
Levels to watch: $650
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
ADBE bullish reversalADBE fantabulous earnings have forced a bullish reversal
a long term bearish techincal move has now been cancelled
as per the FIB retracement it will enter golden pocket @ 533 which is not far
and this will confirm the ride to 630
Entry @ 535
SL @ 520
TP @ 630
Adobe's Stock Surges Approximately 15% After Report PublicationAdobe's Stock Surges Approximately 15% After Report Publication
On June 5th in the article "Is ADBE Stock Undervalued?", we highlighted several bullish signs, suggesting that the report published on June 13th could be a driver for a resumption of the uptrend.
Adobe's report released on June 13th proved to be strong:
→ Earnings per share: Actual = $4.48, Forecast = $4.39;
→ Revenue: Actual = $5.309 billion, Forecast = $5.291 billion. A 10% increase compared to the same quarter last year.
Furthermore, the company stated that:
→ AI is more of an advantage than a hindrance to business development;
→ “We’re seeing early success monetizing new AI technologies across our Digital Media and Digital Experience businesses,” said Shantanu Narayen, Adobe's CEO.
Technical analysis of Adobe's stock shows that:
→ The price has returned to an upward channel (shown in blue) starting from 2023;
→ The price broke a descending formation (shown with red lines), potentially marking a significant correction from point A to point B by approximately 50%;
→ The price surpassed the psychological mark of $500 per share;
→ The price is in the area of the bearish gap from March 15th, which may act as resistance.
Although the RSI indicator on the daily chart of Adobe's stock was in oversold territory at the end of May, today it indicates overbought conditions. There is a possibility that a correction may follow the sharp change in market sentiment, associated with a more thorough evaluation of Adobe's stock prospects.
In such a scenario, support for Adobe's stock price may come from:
→ The psychological level at $500;
→ The lower boundary of the channel;
→ Former resistance at $494.
According to TipRanks, the average price target for Adobe's stock is $613 in 12 months, indicating a growth potential of +16% from current levels.
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A retreat to lower 500I can see it going higher, maybe to 560, but by the mixed reviews on indicators, if this type of behavior chooses to push this farther, then it could get to that mark, but not with some sort of correction, or consolidation between 20 bucks before another channel breakout, we should see.
ADBE and the power of Fibs with AVWAP!NASDAQ:ADBE recently retraced to support at the 0.786 fib from the move to the February high and then gapped up today on a positive earnings. This likely to begin a 5th wave up that could take months to play out, similar to what we saw in 2021.
We can see several instances of it respecting key levels from 2021 fib retrace in the first two waves up in the recovery from the 2022 low.
I plan to participate in this move but will place an AVWAP on earnings and buy the first retest of it.
Why wait for that AVWAP? Notice that the purple AVWAP on the 06/08/23 candle, which was the last time that it touched the 430 0.786 level prior to gaping up into wave 3. This AVWAP acted as support multiple times in 2023 before going on to the February 2024 high. When ADBE broke down in February it retested this AVWAP before failing and retracing all the way back to the 430 0.786.
This mornings opening gap ran to that AVWAP and hit resistance. We're likely to see price test the green AVWAP from the February high before challenging and crossing the purple and proceeding.
ADBE and the power of Fibs with AVWAP!NASDAQ:ADBE recently retraced to support at the 0.786 fib from the move to the February high and then gapped up today on a positive earnings. This likely to begin a 5th wave up that could take months to play out, similar to what we saw in 2021.
We can see several instances of it respecting key levels from 2021 fib retrace in the first two waves up in the recovery from the 2022 low.
I plan to participate in this move but will place an AVWAP on earnings and buy the first retest of it.
Why wait for that AVWAP? Notice that the purple AVWAP on the 06/08/23 candle, which was the last time that it touched the 430 0.786 level prior to gaping up into wave 3. This AVWAP acted as support multiple times in 2023 before going on to the February 2024 high. When ADBE broke down in February it retested this AVWAP before failing and retracing all the way back to the 430 0.786.
This mornings opening gap ran to that AVWAP and hit resistance. We're likely to see price test the green AVWAP from the February high before challenging and crossing the purple and proceeding.
ADBE and the power of Fibs with AVWAP!NASDAQ:ADBE recently retraced to support at the 0.786 fib from the move to the February high and then gapped up today on a positive earnings. This likely to begin a 5th wave up that could take months to play out, similar to what we saw in 2021.
We can see several instances of it respecting key levels from 2021 fib retrace in the first two waves up in the recovery from the 2022 low.
I plan to participate in this move but will place an AVWAP on earnings and buy the first retest of it.
Why wait for that AVWAP? Notice that the purple AVWAP on the 06/08/23 candle, which was the last time that it touched the 430 0.786 level prior to gaping up into wave 3. This AVWAP acted as support multiple times in 2023 before going on to the February 2024 high. When ADBE broke down in February it retested this AVWAP before failing and retracing all the way back to the 430 0.786.
This mornings opening gap ran to that AVWAP and hit resistance. We're likely to see price test the green AVWAP from the February high before challenging and crossing the purple and proceeding.
6/13/24 - $ADBE - Too risky to neck out this EPS = sidelined6/13/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:ADBE
purely looking at the #s, this stock should post decent result and maybe see a 5-10% bump. that's in a bubble world where you ignore all the nuances that make this game so difficult. it's one of the "cheaper" larger techs (200 bn) that can throw off 7 bn in FCF which puts yield at 3.5% and in the context of growth/ a sticky product makes it "better than cash". 25x EPS that's growing 10-15% - that's fine - not great - and all else equal still on the pricy side outside of a massive beat (which would reset a lot of things and having this barreling up 20+% - i think a low probability - but worth pointing out).
the downside here, though, is the recent change to policy that seems to have users up in arms about Adobe taking control of content you publish to their cloud to train their AI. i bet they could do so much with all this data which is why they're land grabbing for it - but people - especially the core customer base is PISSED. i'd be too. so they're clearly playing catch up in the AI space (which btw is the main reason the last EPS was received so poorly) and if they're going to fight a tough battle on content to keep accelerating this effort... hrm. i'd guess this could weigh on willingness to keep buy/owning a beat and should the results fall in-line and the conf call reflect this key concern... stock is down and we test that $440 level very quickly.
all in - if i didn't own it (which i don't) i don't feel the need to play this one. it's software (which generally has no bid - and AI being the culprit - in this case it's at the forefront of concerns). it's not dirt cheap and it's not expensive but growing like a weed. it's sort of in no man's land.
i'm planning to buy the dip if it's an outsized >10% or better 15% (which i think is probably lower probability given the co's healthy cash generation golden goose product), and i wouldn't chase upside. if you're holding for the MT... this spot is just fine. you might weather some volatility but overall it's a great leader in it's domain that probably figures things out (which might just involve an apology lol - easier said than done - but still easy).
hope it helps
V
PS - here's what i wrote to myself post last EPS when i considered buying it, for context.
3/15/24 - tough one on this 4Q result which was "solid" but not a big beat + AI concerns that will chip away the interest of the incremental non-flows-based buyer for an outperformance ST. Probably not excess returns until we see another Q - stock not cheap also but does yield about 2.5%-3% FCF at current rates - though if this is a MT/LT concern to AI today, you'll struggle to make this below 2.5%... so stock should still trend to ATH eventually all else equal, but need a better entry, ideally on a macro-related dump that drags it decisively below ST current value. the issue here is a down stock on a goodish print will be the first to be sold, later to be bought on a macro/beta-style dump so just keep an eye out and probably sub $450 closer to $400 ideal to own
Adobe's Support rejection observed at $432.44 13.06.2024- Support rejection observed at $432.44 on Adobe's 4-hour chart (NASDAQ: ADBE).
- If rejection holds:
- Potential upside target: $476.82.
- Break above $476.82 could lead to further upside to $511.67.
- Further breakout above $511.67 suggests potential for continued upward movement.
- Alternatively, if rejection fails:
- Downside target: $376.03.
- Break below $376.03 may lead to further decline towards $304.27.
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Adobe (ADBE): Earnings Report to Trigger Major Move?With Adobe's earnings report due tomorrow, we have analyzed the weekly chart to get a clearer picture. We started our count in November 2018, identifying the sub-waves 1 and 2 leading up to the primary Wave (1). This Wave (1), like the preceding sub-waves, experienced a very rapid sell-off. Such quick declines are unusual for Wave 2s, but in this chart, it repeats frequently, confirming our interpretation despite being atypical.
We have now identified the sub-wave 1 of the overarching Wave (3). This range and its midpoint have been well respected, and we are currently at the midpoint.
Two scenarios could unfold:
• Negative Earnings Report : If the earnings report disappoints, the price could fall into the Weekly Order Block Cluster around the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, approximately $350. This would likely result in a significant pullback within the range.
• Positive Earnings Report : If the earnings report is strong, the price could shoot up, creating a breakout gap. After this initial surge, we might see a retrace back towards the midpoint of the range before continuing upwards to potentially make a new high above $700.
Given the uncertainty, we are not placing any entries at this time. We will wait to see how the earnings report affects the price action and then consider potential positions based on the developments.
Ichimoku Watch: Adobe in the SpotlightUpcoming Earnings:
Adobe Inc. (ticker: ADBE) is scheduled to report earnings after the market closes on 13 June. The consensus EPS estimate for the fiscal quarter ending May 2024 is $3.54. The reported EPS for the same quarter a year prior was $3.04.
Kumo Cloud Demanding Attention
According to the Ichimoku Indicator, an Ichimoku Cloud resistance is present nearby, formed between the Leading Span A at $459 and the Leading Span B at $470. What is likely to drive interest in this area, apart from the downtrend that has been underway since price action formed a double-top pattern at $634 earlier this year, is the two converging ascending and descending lines to indicate resistance (these are not technically trendlines), which merge at $482.
Price Direction?
Technical analysts have quite a simple chart to work with ahead of tomorrow’s earnings.
The combination of a downtrend, the ascending/descending lines offering resistance, and the downtrend is perhaps enough technical evidence to draw in seller interest if the Ichimoku Cloud is challenged.
Is ADBE overvalued?I ran a DCF model using exponentially smoothed revenue forecasts to fit the future growth rate characteristics of a mature growth company like ADBE. My Cost of Equity was calculated with CAPM using Prof. Damodaran's cash yield ERP (6.01%) and my terminal value was calculated with 2047 price-to-sales of 20 for my bull case, 15 for my base case, and 10 for my bear case. My PTs are $436.24 for my bull case, $381.53 for my base case, and $326.82 for my bear case.
Adobe, a beast hiding in plain sight! Adobe Inc. (ADBE) on the 1-hour chart illustrates a recent decline from a swing high, followed by a recovery forming a harmonic pattern labeled with points A, B, C, D, and E.
Key Fibonacci retracement levels are highlighted, including the 0.618 level at 455.67 and the 0.5 level at 451.53, along with Fibonacci extension levels at 1 (469.07) and 1.23 (477.14).
The chart features a Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) line from the previous month's swing high, which may act as a dynamic resistance around the 469.07 level.
Volume analysis reveals lower recent activity compared to previous spikes, indicating a possible consolidation phase.
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) currently reads around 53.78, suggesting neutral to slightly bullish momentum. Key support levels are identified at 433.97, with resistance levels at 469.07 and 477.14.
The harmonic pattern suggests a potential bullish scenario if the price moves beyond 469.07 towards 477.14, while the downside risk includes a possible drop to support levels at 455.67 or 451.53 if the price fails to sustain current levels.
Long ADBE - Swing TradeADBE just hit massive trend line from past many years.
Indicators are oversold.
A very nice add on any dips.
ADOBE: What is the stock doing before the Q2 earnings Adobe's stock price has been declining over the past month, currently trading below its 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages, with the chart drawing a "death cross" pattern around mid-April, which further confirms the bearish sentiment. The stock now trades at a 25% discount compared to the highs earlier this year.
The Volume Oscillator currently stands at 1.3%, suggesting some buying interest remains, but it's weakening compared to recent trading volume. This could signal a potential reversal, but the downtrend remains strong, with the neutral RSI not suggesting any bullish reversal either.
Next week's Q2 earnings announcement could be a significant catalyst for Adobe. Positive earnings could potentially reverse the current downtrend, but the recent controversy surrounding Adobe's terms and conditions update could weigh on investor sentiment.
The T&Cs update has sparked concerns among users, particularly creatives worried about their creations being used to train AI models, and professionals concerned about the privacy of their data. This could potentially impact Adobe's reputation and customer base, particularly since Adobe remains relatively silent on the issue. This uncertainty adds another layer of risk to the stock in the near term.
Adbe bullish target Adbe 5 wave target @3zizalsaad twitter give me a follow if you liked the analysis
bottom fishing $ADBE with 500c exp 06.21
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