Livestock Price Volatility: Trading Cattle and Hog FuturesThe US livestock market is experiencing significant price volatility in 2025, as outlined in the USDA’s April 2025 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Cattle prices are projected to rise to $206 per cwt, driven by robust demand, while hog prices are lowered to $61 per cwt due to weaker export demand amid tariffs and global competition. These divergent price trends, coupled with production shifts—such as reduced pork output—create a dynamic trading environment for livestock futures. This article analyzes the market with updated price action for cattle futures.
Livestock Market Dynamics: Diverging Price Trends
Cattle prices are raised to an annual average of $206 per cwt, up from the prior estimate of $200, reflecting strong domestic demand and reported data through Q1 2025. This bullish outlook for cattle is supported by higher beef production forecasts, now at 26.767 billion pounds (up from 26.752 billion), driven by heavier dressed weights and increased cow and bull slaughter, though steer and heifer slaughter is lower. Beef exports, however, are reduced to 2.685 billion pounds (down from 2.820 billion) due to tariffs and non-tariff barriers in China, while imports are also down to 4.860 billion pounds, reflecting higher tariffs on foreign suppliers.
In contrast, hog prices are lowered to $61 per cwt, down from $63, as weaker export demand overshadows a slight increase in Q1 prices. Pork production is reduced to 28.090 billion pounds (down from 28.440 billion), reflecting lower slaughter and weights, with the March 27 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report indicating smaller pig crops in 2024 and reduced farrowings through much of 2025. Pork exports are also down to 6.955 billion pounds (from 7.220 billion), impacted by increased tariffs on US shipments to China and price competition from other exporters, such as Brazil and the EU.
These divergent price movements—cattle prices up 3% to $206 per cwt and hog prices down 3% to $61 per cwt—create a unique opportunity for traders to exploit the volatility in livestock futures, particularly through mean-reversion or trend-following strategies.
Market Context: Supply and Demand Shifts
The broader livestock market context adds complexity to the trading landscape. Total red meat and poultry production is lowered to 108.154 billion pounds (down from 108.467 billion), reflecting declines in pork and turkey output, though broiler production is raised to 47.775 billion pounds (up from 47.700 billion) due to improved returns in the second half of 2025. Beef ending stocks are slightly down to 580 million pounds (from 585 million), while pork ending stocks remain steady at 425 million pounds, indicating a balanced but constrained supply picture.
Global trade dynamics, particularly the US-China trade war, are a key driver of export challenges. The WASDE report notes that pork exports to China face increased tariffs, reducing shipments, while beef exports are similarly impacted by non-tariff barriers. This export weakness, combined with domestic production adjustments, suggests that price volatility in livestock futures will persist, offering opportunities for traders to capitalize on short-term price swings.
Trading Signals and Strategies
The livestock market’s price divergence provides clear trading signals for futures traders. Cattle futures CME:LE1! are showing a shift in momentum with updated price action, while hog futures CME:HE1! face bearish pressure at $61 per cwt. As of April 24, LE futures are trading at $207.725 per cwt, slightly down from a recent high of $207.945, and HE futures are at $60.50 per cwt, setting the stage for distinct trading strategies.
The outlook for cattle remains bullish in the longer term, with prices projected at $206 per cwt and strong domestic demand, but short-term price action suggests caution. LE futures have encountered resistance near $207.945 and are now testing $207.725, with a bearish MACD crossover (MACD at 1.821, signal at 1.823) indicating downward momentum. A break below $207 could signal a move to the next support at $206, offering a 1% downside in the short term.
For a reversal play, if LE futures hold above $206 and reclaim $207.945 with strong volume and a MACD crossover above the signal line, prices could target the next resistance at $209, a 1% gain. This setup would require a shift in momentum, potentially driven by renewed domestic demand or easing export barriers.
For hog futures, the bearish outlook with prices at $61 per cwt and exports down to 6.955 billion pounds suggests a shorting opportunity. HE futures are testing support at $60, with the 50-day moving average at $62 acting as resistance. A break below $60, confirmed by a bearish MACD crossover and an RSI drop below 40, could signal a move to $58, a 3-4% downside. The WASDE’s reliability data shows a 2.1% root mean square error for pork production forecasts, indicating potential volatility if future reports adjust output estimates significantly.
Alternatively, traders can exploit the price divergence between cattle and hogs through a mean-reversion strategy. The spread between LE and HE futures—currently around $147.225 per cwt ($207.725 minus $60.50)—is near a 52-week high, suggesting potential for convergence if hog prices stabilize or cattle prices cool. Traders can short LE futures and go long on HE futures, targeting a spread contraction to $146, while monitoring export data and production updates for shifts in sentiment.
Risks to Watch
Trading livestock futures involves risks, particularly given the export-driven volatility. The US-China trade war, with tariffs reducing pork exports to 6.955 billion pounds and beef exports to 2.685 billion pounds, could further dampen demand if global economic growth slows. The WASDE’s historical data indicates a 90% confidence interval of ±3.5% for pork production forecasts, meaning estimates can vary by up to 983 million pounds, introducing uncertainty. Additionally, domestic demand strength for cattle (supporting the $206 per cwt price) could weaken if recession fears intensify, while unexpected production increases in pork could pressure hog prices further.
The livestock market, as detailed in the WASDE report, offers traders a volatile yet opportunity-rich environment, with cattle prices rising to $206 per cwt and hog prices falling to $61 per cwt. LE futures, now at $207.725 per cwt, present a short-term bearish setup targeting $206 for a 1% downside, though a reversal to $209 or a mean-reversion strategy on the LE-HE spread (currently $147.225, targeting $146) provides alternatives. HE futures offer a bearish shorting opportunity, aiming for $58 with a 3-4% profit potential.
