BGI1! trade ideas
Live Cattle Analysis (Revised)A strong case could still be made for a rebound in beef prices. I am a buyer.
I don't pay much attention to many indicators, but I always pay attention to volatility.
Is it done yet!I feel like this is the big short or something. Cattle getting crush to a pulp. Big money just playing with the chump traders. Absolute low on major trendline is 96 but we are on a big fib.
LIVE CATTLE - Finding a bottomIn the chart above I've plotted average cattle prices since February of 1980. I found that a 30 year view is typically enough to see the big picture in a market. Prices closed today (9/6/16) nearly exactly at par, which has been a major level since 2003. From its all time low (53.xx in July 1985) to its peak (170.xx on Nov 2014), the .618% retracement sits at about $98 per cwt.
Since Feb 1980 price has never declined over 30% (avg major peak to major trough was about 28%). Since Q4 of 2014 price has declined 40%, so by all standards this is considered a somewhat rare decline in price. Though, given how high prices have gone, it is far from out of the ordinary to see a decline of this magnitude or greater. This recent price action is reminiscent of oil in January/February. My thought is we'll see a bottom somewhere between 96 - 88. 88 seems more likely. I am going long with low leverage at 96 if price action signals a long on the short term chart. I am going long at 89 with an automatic buy order regardless of the short term price action.
Oil is the chart above - Live cattle is the chart below
Source for data: www.investing.com
Live Cattle Long - OctoberThe market made a New Structure High back on August 4th signifying that we will have a continued uptrend potentially. Currently the market is retesting a big support zone, which happens to be a 61.8% Fib Retracement with the market becoming oversold as indicated by the RSI below. I would expect to see another rally coming to ATLEAST retest previous structure highs at $116. Let me know your thoughts.
October Live Cattle ShortThe market has experience an an excellent rally over the past 10 days and is now hitting a prior area of support/resistance. When using the Fib Extension we are currently at the 127.2 Level, which also lines up with a 78.6 Fib Retracement at this same level. An additional confirmation can be found by the overbought level of the RSI Indicator below. I am predicting the market to fall back down to the $110-112 area (green zone) and hopefully find support and head for a new high around the $119-120 level, but that won't be for a couple weeks if it happens. Time will tell. Let me know your thoughts.
Live Cattle: Intermediate Px Demand hit Expecting a moderate rebound.
Targets will be posted.
I am long
August Feeder Cattle ShortThe market has made a New Structure Low (NSL) in the past couple days when the market became oversold and now has started to rally a bit. This NSL would signify another downtrend continuation trade possibility. Based on prior resistance/support areas, I am projecting the market to rally back into the $115-$117 price range, which happens to be the 61.8 - 78.6 Fib Retracement Zone as well, and then continue our downtrend or at least retest the lows at $109.625. Let me know your thoughts.
Benny Manieri says Live Cattle futures in stagnant consolidationBut they do offer an opportunity....
We see the Cypher pattern (highlighted in blue) that recently completed and that Live Cattle is in consolidation, basically banging around inside a channel locked between 141s and 118s.
We have a bullish bat pattern (hot pink) that completes right at the 118 even handle structure level. I'm looking to buy up two contracts then to the highlighted targets. Frontrunning orders to ensure fills.
April Live Cattle, looks great on the daily!April Live Cattle triggered a short for me after the gap down in the 134 area.
I like the way it's behaving. In the last couple sessions, it has broken down below the short- term uptrend line after a clean touch on the longer- term downtrend line.
Live cattle - Lets short the bulls, it's a bear market after allIt's quite a clean up/down scheme we have here in live cattle price. The price is still above the cloud so we should not enter a trade now but a twist is incoming and it could attract the price to a lower area. Current Kijun was broken and price, in case of a twist breakout, would reach the first support area at 127.3 with a high probability. This key level will determine whether the depicted trades can be issued with a "M" shaped price and its bearish leg (red arrows).
Live cattle - Let the bears take control of the cattle, short.HA candles to make the PA clearer.
PA is in clean downward pitchfork and is nicely oscillating between the upper and lower areas. PA is about to cross the Ichi cloud which could be the start of a short trade. However the lagging span still has some layers to go through before being free. This could occur within the blue ellipse area.
Note the lower support within the pitchfork that could prevent the PA from reaching the lower prong. This is where the TP can take place.
Some fundamentals: www.agweb.com
Some news that could maintain the price flat during the cloud traversal: www.agweb.com
Live Cattle: Probable Shorts Off Of Hidden Resistance LevelTraders
Probable continuation short here to the lows of the range. Nice shooting star doji type candle with engulfing signal. Quite bearish. Price resisted off ratio confluence and 50MA. Should be a nice trade guys.
Best of luck
Tom
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