BGI1! trade ideas
Live Cattle: Strong long term Buy Opportunity.Live Cattle has hit this month the 94.300 1M Support, with the last time we saw these levels being in October 2016. The price appears to be trading within a long term Rectangle within 94.300 and the 130.500 - 134.525 Resistance Zone. The current 3 week rebound on the 1M Support makes LE an automatic long term buy opportunity. We are therefore long at the moment and having calculated all possible scenarios within this Rectangle, we concluded that profit should be taken within 116.500 - 127.500. Take advantage of this opportunity based on your won risk tolerance levels.
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Live Cattle Futures? Buying, wait for Sept Candle To CloseLook at 2016,2017 & 2018 monthly chart. What happened in the month of September, yes price action found major support for rest of the year, then was bullish for the rest of the year. I see live cattle finding support this month around yearly S2 pivot point noted on the chart (by the blue arrow). If you buy and sell live cattle futures, would look into buying at this $90 area and up to $110 range, starting in October.
The green area noted under $90 area happened around 10 years ago, when live cattle futures bottomed out, I hope that doesn't happen related to China Tariffs or other sudden agriculture events. With everyone well in life and trading. Keep on Trading on.
Long Live CattleThis is a swing trade. It will probably take around 40 days to play out.
Entry: 108.20
Stop: 101.30
Size: 1 contract
Target: 130.38
RR: 3.21
Live Cattle: Looking LowerComments on the chart. I will be holding out a bit to ensure that the c wave is complete.
December live Cattle Bowl and reverse Head and Shoulders. DEC Live Cattle has created a bull flag with a reverse head and shoulders with a bowl shape. Expect continued rise to at least height of last shoulder putting it at 115.625.
Live Cattle buy opportunityI realize there aren't many commodities traders on here, so this is mostly for myself and my own journal.
I see a long opportunity in the Cattle market and hope to see a possible move to at least 110 in the weeks ahead. Cattle has been beaten down recently due a number of reasons. The main reasons I see are tariffs, declining profits due to the increased price of corn, and an emerging trend in preformed vegetable matter aka "beyond meat".
I believe the tariff situation with China should start moving in a positive direction by the end of this month, and also the USMCA trade agreement with Mexico and Canada will almost certainly be ratified, which should increase the exports of US beef. My main reasoning behind this trade is mostly a belief that cattle is now at bargain prices and presenting a buy opportunity.
Target = 110.00
SL = 102.40
Live Cattle (LE) ShortSo, my last analysis on live cattle was April 25th where i talked about the possibility of live cattle breaking support and going further down and it went much further than i thought. In my opinion, I believe live cattle will continue on its trend downwards and will find support at the next support level identified on the chart. Enter and exit at your own risk.
DISCLAIMER
Please note that this chart is an opinion based chart only. Please trade at your own risk
Live Cattle: Cyclical sell opportunity.Live Cattle has been trading within a long term 1M Rectangle (RSI = 45.889, CCI = -24.7510, Highs/Lows = 0.0000) roughly since late 2016. This March the price was rejected exactly on the 1W Resistance (130.500 - 134.525) and in April another Lower High attempt failed. This resulted in a strong downfall which is expected to test again the 1W Support Zone (101.625 - 104.150) before another rebound. We are on a long term sell with TP = 104.250.
See the call of this trade before the strong rejection took place:
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Live Cattle ShortI believe live cattle will continue on its trend downwards and will find support at the next support level identified on the chart. Enter and exit at your own risk.
DISCLAIMER
Please note that this chart is an opinion based chart only. Please trade at your own risk
cattle catching a bid due to pork spiketitle pretty much sums it up. cattle exiting a consolidation period. cattle, hogs, grains one of my main indicators for trade talks. trade talks but also a necessity and seasonality
December Live Cattle Head and ShouldersDecember Live Cattle has topped out the last shoulder and has gone to a spinning top. Expect drop Wednesday down to 121.250 at about the 2 day moving average. If it can go below this mark and stay below, then pivot at 120.775 would be the next target. Neckline comes in at about 120. If we see a fall through this target, height of right shoulder comes in at S2, 117. For now this is still a bull market. Expect rejections along the way or a turn back up to higher prices.
Live Cattle Intraday BuyThere might be a slight retracement but that is where i will be set my TP. Market could go past. Enter and exit at your own risk.
DISCLAIMER
Please note that this chart is an opinion based chart only. Please trade at your own risk
April Live Cattle H&SCattle formed a head and shoulders. Has now crept below the neckline. Target is pivot at 126.450. Outside target for right shoulder S1 at 124.150 or my imaginary uptrend line just above. December Cattle also building out H&S, but that market hasn't completed pattern. If it can break pivot then we should see continued selling. Pivot right now has become support.
LIVE CATTLE FUTURES (APR 2019), 1D, CMETrading Signal
Short Position (EP) : 127.4
Stop Loss (SL) : 128.2
Take Profit (TP) : 125.325, 124.025
Description
LEJ2019 formed Double Repo Sell at 1d time frame. Trade setup with Sell Limit at 0.382 Level (127.4) and place stop after 0.618 level (128.2). Once the position was hit, place take profit before an agreement (125.325) and 124.025
Money Management
Money in portfolio : $1,000,000
Risk Management (0.5%) : $5,000
Position Sizing
$0.025 = +-$10/std-contract
Commission fee = -$5.8/std-contract
EP to SL = $0.8 = -$320
Contract size to open = 15 standard contracts
EP to TP#1 = $2.1 = +$830
EP to TP#2 = $3.4 = +$1,350
Expected Result
Commission Fee = -$87
Loss = -$4,800
Gain#1 = +$6,640
Gain#2 = +$9,450
Total Gain = +$16,090
Risk/Reward Ratio = 3.27
cattle-another global growth storyit appear a trend change is about to happen in the cattle market. in my opinion supply outweighs demand and will soon influence cattle pricing. trend changes are fairly normal may take sometime to correct. tomorrows WASDE and other influencing factors may give traders insight post gov shutdown. current curve is backwardated meaning front month futures are trading at a premium compared to back months. calendars and diagonals are optimal here. remember agriculture and live stock have been flying blind since shutdown effected USDA reporting.
Live Cattle: Long term Sell opportunity.The price was recently rejected on the long term Sell Zone of 127.825 - 134.425. For almost 2 years this belt has been used as a sell point by the market. This is a good long term opportunity to go short and target a price above the 101.625 - 104.250 Buy Zone.
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December Live Cattle Head and ShouldersDec Live Cattle is building out a H&S. Break out above R2 at 118.375 will cancel this move. R1 at 117.625 has become substantial resistance. If H&S comes to fruition, fall back to upward trendline and we would assume a continued uptrend. If trend fail, then possible fall to 114.500 at S2. Neckline comes in around 116.800 and pivot at 116.425
#LE_F $LE_F #LiveCattle – BEAR SPREADA bear spread LEQ19-LEM19 has a good potential to grow. Enter 3,0 / SL 3,5 ($200/contract) / PT 2,0 ($400/contract)
#LE_F $LE_F #LiveCattle – SHORTThe price is high and has reached a strong S/R zone. I expect downtrend.
LIVE CATTLE FUTURES (APR 2019), 1D, CMETrading Signal
Short Position (EP) : 126.95
Stop Loss (SL) : 127.65
Take Profit (TP) : 125.55
Description
LEJ2019 formed Turtle Soup Sell at 1d time frame. Trade setup with Sell Stop at 0.382 Level (126.95) and place stop after 0.618 level (127.65). Once the position was hit, place take profit before an agreement (125.55)
Money Management
Money in portfolio : $280,000
Risk Management (1%) : $2,800
Position Sizing
$0.025 = +-$10/std-contract
Commission fee = -$5.8/std-contract
EP to SL = $0.7 = -$280
Contract size to open = 10 standard contracts
EP to TP = $1.4 = +$560
Expected Result
Commission Fee = -$58
Loss = -$2,800
Gain = +$5,600
Risk/Reward Ratio = 1.94
