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CCM1! trade ideas

Corn - September 2015 - Daily - Reversing the declineNOTE: The Chart has the content. This content here is "editable" and therefore at risk of being altered to the analysts advantage (hindsight). I am looking for "El Niño" weather pattern to have upside for Corn this year as drought could roll in and change the crop condition over the summer. ADDENDUM to chart: The purple rectangles (lines) are at the START OF WEEKLY RANGE EXPANSION DOWN moves and provide clear recognition that sellers are sitting at that level ready to sell and check any advance. This is how the market TEACHES US what levels are important. Instead of guessing that certain "retracement" levels are important, you can "SEE" them clearly, once you know how to find them. Here's what the chart says: NOTE TO PURPLE TRIANGLES: There are NO DAILY RANGES ABOVE the start of the WEEKLY RANGE EXPANSION DOWN. The market (buyers) tested the resolve of the sellers, but the sellers didn't allow an entire day above the start of a weekly range expansion down. NOTE TO LIGHT YELLOW TRIANGLE: The inverse is also currently true. There are no entire ranges BELOW the start of the WEEKLY RANGE EXPANSION UP. The sellers had control and flushed the market down to a new low, but it didn't last. The market reversed right back up. Stay tuned if this pattern continues so we KNOW THE KEY LEVEL of the market. RISK: 3 AVERAGE TRUE RANGES = 7 cents/day = 21 cents risk overall. June 17, 364 last, ATR 7 3 x ATR = 21 cents risk = 343 stop. Tim 10:09AM EST June 17, 2015
CBOT:ZCU2015Long
by timwest
8
Corn - Low volatility, bullish bias again. Be a Price follower!Weekly: - Ichimoku setup is neutral/bearish, but there are some important changes in averages: Tenkan, Kijun has been very close to each other, and because of this Senkou A has been flat for long time. By now Senkou B has dropped enough to make a very thin forward Kumo - Price is getting closer to longer term bearish trendline. It has been trading in a relatively tight weekly range of 350-400 since November/2014 (more than 7 months now!), and by definition volatility dropped to very low level. - Heikin Ashi signal may turn bullish again this week. Please not that we need to see friday close to make sure the signal is valid, but I think we will very likely see more move up to range mid and the Kumo. Daily: - Ichimoku setup is turning to neutral from bearish: Price is below Kumo but above Tenkan and Kijun, Chikou hits past candles, and we have a thick Kumo shading Price ahead. - Heikin Ashi signal has been firm bullish for a while, but Price is facing a serious and thick Kumo resistance ahead. - Kumo is thick and Senkou B is far above Price. From this kind of formation it often happens that while Bulls and Bears keep fighting in the neutral zone of the Cloud, Price slowly develops an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern, which is quite a reliable bullish pattern. Of course we don't know now right now how it will really go, but if that happens to be the case, the measured bullish tgt from a neckline break later would be ard 395. Please remember, we are not Price Predictors, but Price Followers! As my belief is that the higher time frame dominates the lower one, I'd be a buyer on dips. I will keep building some long positions, of course not yet a big strategic one.
CBOT:ZCN2015Long
by Kumowizard
CORN DOWNTREND WILL CONTINUE, BUT IT WILL END IF WATER SHORTAGE Both corn and wheat downtrend will continue. Since Dollar is very strong, agriculture is flourishing, oil is cheap, and is going to get cheaper, Corn and Wheat prices will go lower. There's no shortage of food, and it will continue to be like that in the next period. Unless something bad happens this summer, in terms of weather, Prices will go lower. The other possibility of this going higher is due to lack of water in some regions, like California: www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com Lack of water around the world could be possible due to more factors, but I will start with this: www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com Also, glaciers forming more in asia, it has to do with water retreating, possible global freezing, instead of global warming: www.livescience.com www.globalresearch.ca www.globalclimatescam.com www.thelongview.com.au dailycaller.com nextgrandminimum.wordpress.com iceagenow.info Also, there appears to be water barons buying all water: www.bibliotecapleyades.net www.blacklistednews.com www.zerohedge.com Also, why is global warming a pseudoscience: www.bibliotecapleyades.net So this means, short now commodities while you still can, and watch out for lower production in the coming years because of lack of water around the world that can trigger lack of food and so, rising prices in all commodities. If on 1 month chart, highest high for corn is near 850, it can go in the future to 1600, 2000 or more, but that likely in 2 years or more, and that if farmers won't get water. Short, short term, Long, long term. Breaking the wedge indicates potential short target of 340, and longer target to 320. Breaking above 50 day EMA at 370 indicates possible long, and getting out of the wedge and breaking 200 day EMA at 385 indicates longs to unknown potential. This is ZCN2015 futures on corn chart, same as ZC1! idea. (Made this idea again because on zcn2015 posting it in forum posts it with chart, unlike zc1!, which is posted with link.) That is all.
CBOT:ZCN2015Short
by justaname
2
CORN DOWNTREND WILL CONTINUE, BUT IT WILL END IF WATER SHORTAGEBoth corn and wheat downtrend will continue. Since Dollar is very strong, agriculture is flourishing, oil is cheap, and is going to get cheaper, Corn and Wheat prices will go lower. There's no shortage of food, and it will continue to be like that in the next period. Unless something bad happens this summer, in terms of weather, Prices will go lower. The other possibility of this going higher is due to lack of water in some regions, like California: www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com Lack of water around the world could be possible due to more factors, but I will start with this: www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com Also, glaciers forming more in asia, it has to do with water retreating, possible global freezing, instead of global warming: www.livescience.com www.globalresearch.ca www.globalclimatescam.com www.thelongview.com.au dailycaller.com nextgrandminimum.wordpress.com iceagenow.info Also, there appears to be water barons buying all water: www.bibliotecapleyades.net www.blacklistednews.com www.zerohedge.com Also, why is global warming a pseudoscience: www.bibliotecapleyades.net So this means, short now commodities while you still can, and watch out for lower production in the coming years because of lack of water around the world that can trigger lack of food and so, rising prices in all commodities. If on 1 month chart, highest high for corn is near 850, it can go in the future to 1600, 2000 or more, but that likely in 2 years or more, and that if farmers won't get water. Short, short term, Long, long term. Breaking the wedge indicates potential short target of 340, and longer target to 320. Breaking above 50 day EMA at 370 indicates possible long, and getting out of the wedge and breaking 200 day EMA at 385 indicates longs to unknown potential. That is all.
CBOT:ZC1!Short
by justaname
Corn ZCN2015 July CBOT - Daily - Time at Mode AnalysisCorn is at a very interesting place here on the chart. You can buy with a 362 1/2 stop and look for a move to 379-380 in the near term. I'm curious to see if the sellers re-emerge since you can see that the last level of oversold reading of 11-day CCI is now breached, that maybe the shorts get squeezed a little. The sellers have been in control for a long time here from the 420 level back in December. Now that we are in May and it is planting season, usually this is when prices can get a little volatile. And by volatile, I just would like to see movement in a trend from here, not just volatility around a range. I decided to put the "TIME AT MODE" graph on the bottom so you can see what the "profile" of the current uptrend is. Why is it an uptrend? Because there hasn't been a new low for 5-days. That's a simple rule I follow. If the market is above the "mode" from the time of the low, then there is an uptrend in place. What you want to see in an uptrend is for the "range to expand" in the direction of the trend. If you get that, it helps you define your trend AND it gives you some levels to ADD TO your position on pullbacks. I'd advise buying against the middle of the range expansion bar in subsequent bars, up to 5 days after the range expansion bar. You can exit that "add" at the high of the expansion bar and risk an equal amount as you are trying to make here. That's all for now. Stay posted! Tim 368'0 last 12:17PM EST May 14, 2015 Thursday
CBOT:ZCN2015Long
by timwest
Corn - Bullish hope is fading. Will the bears rule mkt again?I was bullish biased too. Tried to catch bottom a few times in corn. Sometimes I made small, sometimes I lost small during the last few weeks. I am not bullish any more, not until it is below 390! For you attention, the charts include the second active continous contract on the weekly and in line with that the July contract on the daily. Weekly: - The neutral Ichimoku setup is turning into more bearish biased again: Price below Kumo and Kijun Sen, medium strong Tenkan/Kijun bearish cross is possible. Last hope is horizontal supp/res ard 374! - Heikin Ashi signal is bearish, with one last question mark on haDelta -> is the positive divergence of haDelta/SMA3 about to break? Daily: - Bulls have serious problem: Ichimoku setup is turning into firm bearish again. Price made a lower low, Chikou comes back to open space below price candles, both Tenkan Sen and Senkou A point down. - Heikin Ashi signal is bearish too Honestly, I do not know if we'll see a szrong bearish trend resumption, or if it will be only a bear trap, but now it is not prudent to hold any long position in Corn, and all longs opened lately must have been stopped out by now! As I don' yet see Wheat and Soybeans as bearish as Corn right now, I don't like the idea of going short in Corn. On the other side I'd consider a long only above 390. Maybe better not to touch it at all.
CBOT:ZC2!Short
by Kumowizard
Corn - Bulls need to protect 365-370Weekly: - Ichimoku setup is still neutral, but if Price breaks back below 965 it will turn to bearish - Heikin Ashi signal this week is worrysome, especially that Tenkan/Kijun may cross bearish too - Last support is 365 Daily: - Ichimoku setup is turning more bearish: strong bearish Tenkan/Kijun cross, everything is below the Kumo. - The possible early Heikin Ashi reversal signal at minor trend and horizontal support is the last hope for bulls. No lower low so far compared to low on 19/March. If Price can move higher from here, then Bulls will have some more chance to attack a thin Kumo ard 383 again. However it can turn bullish only above 390. Maybe it is better not to touch it now.
CBOT:ZC1!
by Kumowizard
Corn - Update / Bulls' warm up?Weekly: - Heikin Ashi is firming bullish - Major bullish reversal and acceleration expected above 415 Daily: - It is just about to make a classic bullish Kumo breakout signal! Due to previous range consolidation, Chikou Span can break above past Kumo same time. - haDelta/SMA bullish cross above zero line would give further confirmation - Acceleration in buying expected above 395-400. Appr a week ago a lot of new short positions were established. Those may be squeezed and stopped above 400. Hold longs! And hopefully you will have to hold them for 10-15-20 % profit, if the weekly reversal happens, that will start a nice new bullish trend.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by Kumowizard
1
Corn - Bit of confusion, 7 weeks of consolidation,followed by...... the follow through may be more up. Weekly: - 7 weeks of hesitation and consolidation in form of undecided Heikin Ashi candles. - Although it is only Monday, this week Heikin Ashi candle may be a bullish one, as haDelta/SMA3 indication is more bullish as well. The oscillator turned bullish too. - Ichimoku setup is neutral, with some bullish bias: Price enterring Kumo, Chikou is above past candles and points up. Kijun Sen held well and stopped sellers four times! - Upper supp/res is at 418. Above that level Price would make a bullish weekly Kumo breakout, and the space would open for further and decent bullish move. Get ready, as a short squeeze and a strategic reversal may arrive soon. Daily: - Price action is a bit confusinf. A week ago it looked like a valid bearish continuation and a break of a possible minor uptrend line. However in last three days with Wheat being the leader, Corn started a decent correction too. Now the question is what the Price will do at the 389 supp/res horizontal line? It is also a question wether we've seen developing a decreasing wedge? Anyhow, if Price breaks above 390 and holds, that will be really bullish and more short squeeze will follow. - Ichimoku setup is turning back to neutral from the initial bearish. - Heikin Ashi setup is bullish. haDelta/SMA3 further above the zero line, Oscillator turns bullish again. Will it stay like this? p.s.: I got stopped on my initial longs when price broke back below 380. I reopened longs after I saw the possible up-reversal in Heikin Ashi setup two days ago. Watching 390 key level now, ready to increase longs if Price shoots higher.
CBOT:ZCK2015Long
by Kumowizard
1