BUY CORN FUTURES This pair seems to be on a long-term uptrend. It's trading on mean price if we compare it from past price action.
CCM1! trade ideas
Close to A Bottom in December Corn? After scoring a new contract low early in Tuesday’s trade, December corn futures managed to stage a late-session rally to close in positive territory. Moreover, the contract managed to close above trendline resistance that’s been in place dating back to June 20th.
Price action on Wednesday served as a continuation of the late-session strength, with the contract closing 6 cents higher to close at 482 ¼ - marking a second consecutive close above trendline resistance. Prices have clung to the trendline very tightly over the last 8 trading sessions, and the previous two sessions are the first instances of prices closing above trendline resistance.
So the question now becomes, are we close to a bottom in the December corn contract? Looking at price history and seasonal tendencies, we can see that the December corn contract typically bottoms out between the final week of September and into the first couple of weeks of October, before ultimately staging a moderate rally in late October.
www.seasonalgo.com
If we are indeed attempting to put in an intermediate bottom, we can expect a support/resistance flip. Meaning, that previous trendline resistance should now act as trendline support. In other words, if prices falter in the coming days, and test the trendline, we should likely see bulls come to defend the trendline.
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Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CORN is trying to establish a base for an upside counter-swingAfter a long period of sideways trading within MJT and MNT lines , Corn is trying to establish a base for an upside counter-swing. A clear close above 508 will confirm it and clear the path for an extended rally. Today USDA will release the weekly export sales report which could be the catalyst that ignite this counter-swing.
The most accurate Corn futures Ganns and FibonaccisI don’t know why these support and resistance so well. I had a 1.9gpa in hs bc I was poor and wanted in skilled trades to make money. But I realized my back and ankle issues make it impossible to make money where I’m at. So I learned this. I don’t invest but I want to work at Citadel one day.
Corn price will increaseThe recent information that could make corn prices increase in the near future include:
The war in Ukraine: The war in Ukraine has disrupted global grain exports, including corn. Ukraine is a major exporter of corn, and the war has prevented it from exporting its grain. This has led to a shortage of corn on the global market, which has pushed up prices.
The drought in the US Midwest: The US Midwest is a major corn-producing region, and the drought in this region is affecting corn yields. The drought has made it difficult for farmers to grow corn, and this has led to lower production. Lower production means higher prices.
The high cost of fertilizer: The cost of fertilizer has been rising in recent months, and this is making it more expensive to grow corn. Fertilizer is used to help corn plants grow, and the higher cost of fertilizer is making it more difficult for farmers to make a profit. This could lead to lower production and higher prices.
The strong demand for corn from ethanol producers: Ethanol is a biofuel that is made from corn. The demand for ethanol has been increasing in recent years, and this is putting upward pressure on corn prices. Ethanol producers use corn to make ethanol, and the higher demand for ethanol is leading to higher demand for corn.
The weaker US dollar: The US dollar has been weakening in recent months, and this is making corn exports more attractive to buyers from other countries. When the US dollar is weak, it means that foreign currencies are stronger. This makes corn exports more affordable for buyers from other countries, which can lead to higher prices.
Entry : (476.4681, 473.09963039757986)
SL : 472.4437
TP1 : 485.6414
TP2 : 487.8568
TP3 : 490.4948
Is Corn Price on the Edge of a 25% Drop?In this idea, I am trying to read and forecast the behavior of the chart in the next 4.5 months . I do not follow corn production, harvest, demand, etc.
Since April 2022 (its 9-year highs) has lost about 40% . Its relatively long-going bearish trend means that most of the drop likely has happened.
Let's quickly study previous drops that lasted more than a year and erased more than 40% of the corn price.
The last one started 11 years ago. It happened during world economic growth. The price lost more than 61% for 26 months of the trend.
Another drop occurred during the GFC and lasted for 24 months. Corn lost 60.5% of its price. Important to note that the price reached its lowest point in December 2008 (in the sixth month after the drop started), then the price fluctuated and reached about the same level in September 2009. Considering the crisis and its trend low reached in 6 months, it is not the perfect example to compare with the current 2022-2023 corn price trend.
Let's continue to delve into the past! 44% tumble was printed between April 2004 and November 2005, i.e. 19 months .
Sending back 17 years ago, we can see a 64.4 % drop in 25 months .
Here we are in 1983, the era of high dollar inflation (and not only). The Fed chair Volcker Jr. is fighting with inflation ECONOMICS:USIRYY , and America is recovering from its 1979-1982 recession. The world economy is starting to recover from recession/slowdown too.
Between late August 1983 and February 1987 ( 43 months ), corn prices fell by 61.9% .
These data series are not enough to firmly generalize bearish trends . Besides, price movements in the past do not determine possible future patterns.
We can gently conclude that a bearish trend in corn prices that lasts more than a year could last between 19 and 43 months and show a drop between 40 and 64.4%.
In view of those facts and the performance of the corn daily prices in the last 1.5 months,
I forecast several scenarios.
In the first one, I expect that the price would break the 469-470 support zone and come to 400 cents per bushel until the end of September .
Then I expect some correction lasting 3-5 weeks. And the realization of scenario #1.5 (continuation of scenario #1), we could see a breakout of 400 cents and move to 345 cents per bushel before the end of the year . That would be the low or almost the low of the current long-term bearish trend for maze price. Combined scenarios #1 and #1.5 would mean minus 25% from the current price and a drop of 57.5% since April 2022.
There are two alternatives . In scenario #2 after reaching 400 cents, the price would return to 470 cents .
In scenario #3 the current support zone would be a minimum of the trend for the next 4.5 months.
Watch out for FXCM broker market manipulations You’re broker is not your friend!
FXCM is manipulating their liquidity pool and their CORN FUTURE is completely out of real market price.
A Counter Trend Trade Opportunity Fundamental News
Lack of demand has been a widely reported story which has acted as a major headwind for prices over the last month. This morning’s weekly export sales report showed net sales of 233,500 MT (9,192,486 bushels) for 2022/2023 were up 55 percent from the previous week and 16 percent from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 704,700 MT (27,742,805 bushels) for 2023/2024. Both were within expectations (better than below expectations).
With a plethora of bearish headlines thrown at the market for nearly a month straight, from improving crop conditions, to dismal demand, the bearish headlines may be turning stale.
Historical Tendencies
Looking at historical patterns, specifically the 5-year average for this time of year, we’ve seen the market consolidate and attempt to consolidate through the back half of August and into September.
Technicals (December)
December corn futures managed to reclaim some ground yesterday, trading 6 cents higher at the close. As mentioned in yesterday's 2-Minute Drill, we believe that the Bulls need to see consecutive closes back above 480-482 (previous support) to help encourage a bigger relief rally with the next objective being closer to the psychologically and technically significant $5.00 level.
CVOL
CME Group's corn CVOL index is back to the levels we were at in May. We are at the point in the season where we still don’t know what the corn yield is, but we also know what it isn’t. Getting through the pivotal crop development time frame narrows down the range of yield estimates, helping to bring uncertainty and volatility down, which can lower option premiums.
Summary:
The bottom is a process, not necessarily a point. We believe that the process may be under way, at least for a short-term relief rally. With bearish headlines growing tired and seasonal patterns coming into play, we could start to see the market consolidate and try to carve out a near term low. The Bulls have their work cutout for them on the chart, and that starts with consecutive closes above 4.80-482. With Volatility well off the recent highs, options may be a good way to gain long exposure for what would be a counter trend trade.
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT CORN DEC23 (SHORT)Chicago Board of Trade corn futures closed weaker on Tuesday and hit their lowest level since December 2020 on improving US crop conditions.
Expecting that the price is going to make lower low in upcoming time and this trade is a low risk trade with good Risk to Reward Ratio.
Agricultural Commodities: On a Landscape of Market ManipulationThis Fib layout consists of the most important agricultural commodities. Beef, Pork, Soybean, Corn, Wheat, Rice, and Orange Juice Futures.
-Orange Juice is sold as a frozen concentrate which makes it a commodity.
Each Schematic is worked through by Large Institutions on behalf of the Fed.
Market Manipulation through inflation and destroying meat processing plants/Killing livestock shows its effects.
Corn approaching some key horizontal levelsOn the monthly candles we can clearly see some key horizontals, set your alerts and trade safe!
Corn futures price chiseling could head lower Yield reports from August USDA’s reports dropped the fresh crop corn yield by 2.4 bushels/acre to 175.1. Since there were no new acreages it also set the potential output to 15.111 B bushels.
Worldwide the old crop puts the Brazilian output at 135 MMT increase of +2 MMT. Brazil's CONAB raised their corn production forecast by 2.2 to 130 MMT on better 2nd crop yields. Old crop carryout was a tad bit lower at 298 MMT. Among new crop outputs, Ukraine was 2.5 MMT higher amidst export uncertainties from that region while the EU combined were 3.7 MMT lower while China and South Africa both cut by 3 MMT and 1.7 MMT respectively. China’s authority left corn production unchanged from their prior month estimate, while adding that inclement weather likely could affect output and quality of crops. In the world front, that lowers the total output 11 MMT to 1.214 B MT. Ending stocks were 3 MMT tighter to 311, compared to the 314 MMT expected going in. Total supply was a net 155 mbu lower after a 55 mbu looser old crop carryout picture. USDA trimmed old crop FSI by 20 and exports by 25. For new crop demand, USDA cut feed and residual by 25, FSI by 20, and exports by 50. That tightened stocks by 60 mbu to 2.202 billion.
There are a couple of Fib measures on that measures as a continuation Fib extension and the other as a peak to retrace and we consider both of them valid since they point to a potential lower set of profit targets one at 466 and the other a bit higher at 468.
History repeating? Price is extended and at supportAnalysis: Price extends decline due to the release of the August USDA report towards the recent low, which was also formed due to the release of the July USDA report. Price can be seen as extended and with price now at support region, it is likely that price will begin experiencing retracement soon.
Long opportunity: Long at market reopening as High Risk trade towards 498.0 as Take Profit - 1 level.
Reuters desinfo: global food prices soaring - not really..It seems Reuters is trying to manipulate food prices in this article , clearly stating something which clearly does not reflect truth at the time!
Corn: Prepare to pop 🍿Corn has continued to sell off over the last few days and is now approaching our blue buy zone from USX 496 to USX 470. The downward movement in the form of the blue wave (b) should end there. Subsequently, we expect the blue wave (c) to rise to around USX 600, making it worthwhile for prospective buyers to place long orders in our blue buy zone. Our alternative scenario, with a 25% probability, occurs if the price falls further than we expect. In this case, a break of the support level at USX 474.25 would give it significant downside momentum that buyers should take note of.
ZC Corn Futures (LONG)For Corn we are going all the way up as the grains shows a short-term bullish for now. We can expect the price to push higher.
Corn overextended. LONGCorn experienced a sharp decline supported by the recent higher than expected stock report. However, price is overextended and is supported by the recent low support level.
Long opportunity: Long at market reopening as High Risk trade towards 505.25 as Take Profit - 1 level.
CORN FUTURES ShortCorn Futures sell signal is already activated, Risk reward 1/2 ... For These who trade Commodities it's important to know this bullish confirmation...
1M: Corn Futures multiyear down trend likely in progressAs above.
Multidecade trend channel in progress with clear resistance/sell zones and support/demand zones.
Multiyear bearish RSI divergence on the 1M chart and decreasing volume suggests continued fall in corn futures price action over the next few years.
Will follow.
#CORN 🟢 M5 LONG
Asset Long according to CFTC futures reports
In the zone of the Buyer of stock options
Global Imbalance Level M15
M5 imbalance
input: 5302 (on imbalance retest)
stop: 5252
tp-1: 5352
tp-2: 5450
6/30 Corn Report Day. what NowCorn consolidates in the 5.22-5.36 area on its way down to 4.99 if current weather pattern is accurate over the next week July 4th.
Disclaimer
Futures and options offer substantial risk and may not be suitable for all investors. This is not trading advice.
December Corn Testing Overhead Resistance December Corn has had a nice recovery off the lows from May near 490'6, and now are looking to test what was old support and is now new resistance. A rejection here can send the markets lower and potentially look to test the 511 area, but a close out above the 546 level could be the strong catalyst needed to send these prices higher towards 562'6.
