2024-07-17 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
overall market comment
Indexes all read except DJI. Given the overbought conditions especially for the russel, tis was expected. Tech selling continued and is accelerating. For Nvidia all but 1 remaining bull trend line are broken and if bears can close the gap down to 114, they can probably print 100 over the next weeks. My measured move target 96 is from 2024-07-06. Selling today was strong enough to expect more tomorrow, especially going into the weekend.
Commodities - Gold printed a rather neutral doji on the daily chart after a new ath 2488. Will we sell off from here or can they go 2500? I don’t know. 2500 is an obvious magnet but Opex is around the corner and maybe too many yolo’d into 2500 calls.
Oil got the expected bounce to 83, which I have been writing about since Sunday. Buying was strong enough for follow through tomorrow but bears need to keep it below 84 or this is not a pullback anymore.
Bitcoin - Market has still not touched the 4h 20ema since Saturday. Very strong buying by the bulls but it gets weaker. I don’t know if they can break out above again without a deeper pullback first. It’s also very bullish, that nasdaq sells off while btc stays above 62000. Should only look for longs as long as market stays above the 4h ema.
dax
comment: Will change from dax cfd from EasyMarkets to dax futures from now on. Market opened below y close and quickly filled the gap before bears took over and grinded it down. 18500 was bought as expected but the two legs up were so strong, that bears did not try to force another test of 18500 and market went mostly sideways, which is a neutral signal going into tomorrow. The bear channel is holding properly but bears would need a weekly close below 18500 for more selling next week. Market has formed a triangle with the bull trend line and the most recent bear channel resistance line and market will break out tomorrow.
current market cycle: trading range (triangle on the daily chart - technically bears traded back into the triangle)
key levels: small range 18500 / 18900 - If 18500 is broken for good, next support is 18360
bull case: Bulls bought where they had to and stopped a bigger sell off. They need to break the bear channel for another test of 18900 or higher. They bounced at the daily 20ema yesterday and today they closed above it again, which means that bulls are technically still in control but if they do not reverse it tomorrow, it’s night night.
Invalidation is below 18500.
bear case: Bears now had 3 decent legs down to 18500 and market then oscillated around the 50% pullback from the recent bull trend, which is 18570. As long as the bears keep it mostly below the 1h 20ema and inside the bear channel, they are good and market will continue down. Their target is a weekly close below 18500, which would make most bulls cover and it would be a strong sell signal going into next week.
Invalidation is above 18720.
short term: Neutral between 18500 - 18650. Bearish below and bullish only on a strong break above the bear channel.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: Short since 18700, added to shorts 18900. Will hold this till Cathy closes ARKK or the big short 2.0 is announced. —unchanged
trade of the day: Longs from the strong open were decent but you had to think fast. After the gap close market quickly reversed and since it reversed right at the 1h 20ema, that was your hint to look for shorts next time market gets near it.
DAX1! trade ideas
DAX LONG The DAX Future, after 2 days of high volatility, created a High Value Area with POC at 18,082. Today, this level was strongly felt, first with a false breakout, then with an upward break followed by a retest. All framed in a more macro picture in which the price has broken the minimum of the regression channel monitored by me. Tomorrow it is likely that the price will test the next HVA at the 18,300 level. June is a statistically negative month for the DAX which has had negative performances between -4% and -10% in 17 of the last 24 years. For this reason I wouldn't go for more ambitious TPs. Hello everybody
DAX Analysis - Continuous, Just as the Markets !This is a Thread, so Follow for Technical Analysis performed with TrapZone Pro & UMVD Indicators.
* Trend is Based on TrapZone Color
* Bar Colors give us Momentum Green from strong Up Moves. Red Bars point to strong Down Moves.
* Red UMVD = Selling Pressure & Green UMVD = Buying Pressure. Purple is for Divergence = Battle of Supply & Demand
>> USE PAGE DN to go DOWN To the LATEST Post <<
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2-25-2024
Strong Upside Momentum with wide GREEN TrapZone established now and GREEN UMVD continues. Class A Entry at the top of the TrapZone.
FDAX UpdateOverbought and at ATH.
I think there's a good chance the market gaps down Monday, but can't really short anything because NVDA appears to be melting up.
You can tell some of the traders and algos did a pump and dump on the gap up this morning, but not enough of them to make it worthwhile to short the market yet. I'd like to see the algos dump on indicators instead of inflation news before I start shorting stocks
Germany [Large Cap EU] vs. USA
This seems to be more difficult for me. I like to discuss this one.
You can see converging lines, but they were converging even more months to years ago.
There was a quite strong spring. It has been tested strong but remained strong untill march 2023, when the banking crisis started. next week a lot of folks are looking at the ecb.
The testing of the clear down channel triggered a very strong down move which is still intact and shaked as well as cutted the VPOC (volume point of control). As of friday there was a week close below the channel. The bears are leading this one down, but there is a possibility of a upward reversal. The up move went to 150 % fibonacci, so the establishing bullish channel is quite strong .
Good look for all of you, trading stocks from europe !
I am in ETFs from Europe .
FDAX TRIANGLE LONG SIGNALThe big difference between an active private investor who makes losses and a successful professional trader is the discipline factor. As a rule, it is not due to a lack of knowledge on the part of the private investor, but rather the sudden change from one technology to another. A professional trader who does not stick to the trading plan will fall out of favor with his superiors, even if the trade was profitable. A retail investor often has difficulty sticking to his own trading rules or systems when things get exciting. Discipline prevents emotions such as fear and greed from taking over. Support clear rules for the profit and loss statement.
FDAX LONG SIGNAL TARGET ZONEThe basic idea of swing trading is a combination of bottom fishing and trend following strategies. The investor acts strictly trend-following by acting exclusively in the direction of the prevailing trend and taking advantage of entry opportunities where the price is close to the technical chart guidance line that accompanies the trend, be it a trend line or a moving average. He is betting that this guiding light will once again become a springboard for a new trend impulse. The advantage of swing trading is that the investor enters close to the zone that is crucial for the trend and is therefore able to work with tight stop prices.
DAX - those EMAs last intersected on November 6thHello Traders,
Following the New Year, the DAX has tempered its upward momentum. After the first significant correction in a long time, resulting in a 3.4% drop from the all-time high.
The price has fallen below the 32 EMA and the 82 EMA on the 4-hour time frame, leaving it sandwiched between the 200 SMA and the remaining pair of EMAs. The last time these two averages crossed was on November 6th, and today they intersect again for the first time since that period. Could this signal a weakening of the trend or even a reversal? Currently, I expect consolidation at these levels as the market seeks acceptance. However, in my opinion, the key will be the 16600 level. If it is positively accepted and the price bounces off from it upwards, I would anticipate a natural continuation of the upward trend.
Conversely, if the price breaks through this average at the 16600 level and is accepted from below, a reversal of the trend downwards is likely. In this scenario, I would consider short positions in the range of 15774 to 15352.
Intraday long DaxPoor high and excess at low of previous day market profile. 30min symmetrical triangle. Will watch OBV to confirm move/breakout. FED day so possibility for choppy price action.
Same course of action if price is to break to the downside of the pattern, potential to fill small volume cave.
Would likely execute with time filter
Critical 4 weeks for DAX Following weekly chart.
The last time when I get a short signal to in weekly chart was 4 weeks before COVID crash. (red area in the chart)
Now I got the same signal and unfortunately this is the most trustworthy signal for me.
I think this 4 weeks are really critical and what I expect is we might way to go to gaps below.
Be careful and be careful!