Mega Cap Tech Strong / Banks weakThe market almost closed positives today in the back of tech stocks rallying.
A massive gap down was bought up off the lows today. Banks continuing's to sell off despite yields and the dollar cooling off today.
E2NP34 trade ideas
$108 or $59 support. 10% or 50% more down until bottomENPH is facing headwinds from multiple directions.
After a few years of sky high valuations, it is being looked at with fundamentals. Current PE of 30, so we could reasonably fall to a PE of 20 if the broader market crashes or if the CleanTech bubble (continues to) pop.
Either 10% down from here ~$108 or 50% down from here ~$59 are plausible IMO.
I like what these guys do, but I'm going to be cautiously on this one.
Enphase EnergyThis is a chart of Enphase Energy (ENPH). For those who are not familiar with the company, Enphase Energy develops and manufactures microinverter systems for the solar photovoltaic industry. They are one of the preeminent companies in solar power. Recently, price gapped up on the daily chart following news that Congress would pass legislation to fund sustainable infrastructure projects.
In the above chart, each candlestick represents a 6-month period. Analyzing higher timeframes can often help us determine trend reversals long before they happen. This higher timeframe chart reveals a very peculiar candlestick pattern: the sneaky bearish tri-star pattern. This pattern occurs when three Doji candlesticks form after a bull run. This pattern can warn that a major reversal is coming. See below image.
A bearish tri-star pattern is an insidious topping pattern that Wall Street smart money would love for you to not know about. In short, it appears because Wyckoff distribution is occurring underneath the surface.
While I cannot describe the entirety of Wyckoff distribution in this post, I can say that, in short, Wyckoff distribution is when smart money gradually distributes or sells their shares near the top. The gradual nature of the selloff traps the unsuspecting "weak hands" (mostly small retail traders) who buy while unaware that the bull run is in its final phase. Sometimes, since smart money is especially manipulative, they manufacture a sudden upthrust in price near the end of the Wyckoff distribution, which may be what's happening right now.
This sudden upthrust (UT or UTAD) is a price move above resistance that quickly reverses and closes lower. The upthrust is a test of the remaining demand. It is also a bull trap: It appears to signal the resumption of the bull run but in reality, is intended to trick uninformed breakout traders. A UT or UTAD allows Wall Street smart money to mislead the public about the future trend direction and, subsequently, sell additional shares at elevated prices to breakout traders before the markdown begins. In addition, a UTAD may induce smaller traders in short positions to cover and surrender their shares to the larger interests who have engineered this move.
In my years of trading experience I have seen the above chart many times before, and the result is almost always the same. This chart is in the phase that some of us traders call a "fake out". A fake out occurs when price appears to be breaking out when actually it is just forming an upper wick. This occurs when price has been moving within an ascending wedge and after bearish divergence has occurred on the RSI. The final phase is when the RSI breaks out after bearish divergence and while in overbought territory. Price then pulls back down strongly and a long upper wick forms on the candlestick. In essence, this is just another way of visualizing the upthrust phase of Wyckoff distribution. The final RSI breakout is the UTAD of Wyckoff distribution.
Here's another Trading View user who is apparently seeing the same thing as I am, though this post is from before the current upthrust:
Also worth mentioning is that it is interesting that corporate insiders have been only selling their positions and there has been no reported insider buying for nearly a year (see below). This is not usually predictive of future price action, but it can give a general sense of sentiment among insiders at a company.
So it's worth watching to see if ENPH will reverse downward. Perhaps it will blast through this level and my analysis prove wrong. As a trader, you must always be willing to accept when you're wrong because your money is more important than your ego. With that said, just remember this is a long-term chart and price may continue moving up before reversing down. Some related charts, including the charts of ETFs that hold ENPH and the ENPH/SPY relative chart, suggest that ENPH does have the momentum necessary to break out to the upside. It's just looking very suspicious right now.
This post is not making a short call on ENPH, it is just an observation. It is not financial advice. Although I may choose to open a position, at the time of writing this, I have neither a long nor a short position open on ENPH. This is an objective, non-biased analysis.
I'll be keeping an investigative eye on this chart.
I'm looking for $ENPH's resistant levelsBased on 24 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for Enphase Energy in the last 3 months. The average price target is $180.82 with a high forecast of $262.00 and a low forecast of $114.00. The average price target represents a 43.79% change from the last price of $125.75.
ENPH: OVERSOLDEnphase is severely oversold on the weekly chart and is showing a double pattern from the low of Mat 2021. Expecting a bounce to $132 for PT1, then $140 for PT2.
Pull Back Fishing???This would be major time pull back fishing!!
The market has been teetering down as of late.
Slowly but surely.
Seems staples and consumer goods not on the top of the list.
I am thinking that not many of us are planning to buy solar panels and get rid of our local power company this month either )o:
But who knows if the government pays for the conversion.
These days I never say never.
No recommendation
ENPHASE ENERGY ($123) LONG IDEAcan add more at 116 , chart pattern suggest demand hereabouts , hopefully third times the charm here .
stoploss weekly close below 99
ENPH LONGLong term chart shows two bullish orderblock right underneath where it is trading. 96.58 is my first entry with stop loss set at 0.5X 2nd Orderblock. For long term hold, I am more inclined on entering when the lower orderblock liquidity is swept. Which would be a golden opportunity at around $75/Share
PS: Not Financial advice. Do your own due diligence.
ENPH Bear CaseST - There are lots of gaps we made on the way up. I expect those to all fill (as they have historically).
LT - I don't see why ENPH won't behave like most all other names who went above LT resistance in COVID and have since come crashing down below. If you have an idea as to why - please let me know!
ENPH - a long energy trade LONGENPH is in the energy sector which has been strong in the past couple of weeks.
On the 2H chart over the past two years visible, ENPH is just above its support.
It is about 50% below its pivot highs of 9-12 months ago and in a parallel
descending channel. I believe that ENPH is now set up for a 50% retracement of
the Fibonacci type. Fundamentally, two or more good earnings reports is
certainly reassuring as is the present sector trend. I have drawn in horizontal
levels/lines for targets. I will take a stock trade long and investigate a 6 month
duration options contract as well. Please comment if you are interested in
those details.
$ENPH - Could start a consolidationNASDAQ:ENPH Looks like $133 is providing some support. $133 is a fib ext. as well as a stair step measured move. So it should be a decent support.
It could potentially consolidate between, $133 and $160. If $133 breaks, next support is $120.
ENPHIt is expected that the fourth wave will end, for the beginning of an upward wave, to achieve a price of $170
Buying ENPH dip Hello frends,
I am buying the blood on ENPH as I presume this will rally to 200+
Put some levels to use as pt points and buybacks
I have picked up long dated calls.
Not financial advice just my ideas
LONG ENPHAdding to calls and will continue to add up until 127
I think this may be gods gift, NFA as always
getting ready to manage a losing ER tradeEnphase Energy Inc.’s ENPH, -3.78% stock initially plunged more than 15% in extended trading Thursday after the company reported quarterly revenue that fell short of analysts’ estimates and offered a weak forecast.
Enphase reported fiscal second-quarter net income of $157.2 million, or $1.09 a share, compared with net income of $76.9 million, or 54 cents a share, in the year-ago quarter. Adjusted earnings were $1.47 a share. Revenue was $711.1 million, compared with $530.2 million last year. Enphase provided third-quarter revenue guidance of between $555 million and $600 million, short of the $749 million forecast by analysts on FactSet.
Analysts surveyed by FactSet had expected on average second-quarter net income of $1.28 a share on revenue of $726 million. Shares of Enphase have sunk 37% so far this year, while the broader S&P 500 index SPX, -0.64% has increased 18%.
ENPH Enphase Energy Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold ENPH here:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of ENPH Enphase Energy prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 170usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2024-1-19,
for a premium of approximately $22.15.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
ENPHLooks like we have , what is (by now) to be a familiar bottoming pattern .
If your feeling like BIG tech is had its run an you want to rotate over this stock has always been a giver, when others were takers
ENPH EARNINGS TO PUSH PRICE TO THE SELL LIQUIDITY TARGETSEnph pushing down with a shift in market structure, and also a catalyst that could see it $113.40 at earnings. look for price to display continued downward pressure under $175.50 to take out the sell side.
Enphase Ready For A 25% Move?
Looking at a weekly chart for ENPH it appears that prices is currently attempting a brake of its down trend since December of last Year.
Currently price has been consolidating a sideways range that inevitably will brake one way or the other.
IF the market is TRUELY bullish we would expect this trend to brake and price to rise to the top of the value area and redistribute.
IF price fails to brake trend and continues to reject a continuation to the down side should be expected.
As the market has already seen some very nice price rises in recent months a rejection may be more likely followed by a continuation to the down side.
Trade Well....
$ENPH NASDAQ:ENPH ,
Enphase stock experienced a decline of -2.57% on the most recent trading day, Friday, July 14, 2023, with the price dropping from $182.64 to $177.94. Throughout the day, the stock fluctuated by 3.77%, reaching a low of $176.90 and a high of $183.57. Over the specified period, the stock price exhibited volatility, resulting in a 12.07% gain over the past two weeks. On the last trading day, volume increased by 318 thousand shares, albeit on declining prices. This could be an early warning sign, indicating a slightly elevated risk in the coming days. In total, approximately 3 million shares were traded, amounting to a value of approximately $592.44 million.
Currently, the stock is situated within a wide and downward trend in the short term, suggesting the possibility of further decline within this trend. Based on the present short-term trajectory, the stock is projected to experience a -10.02% decrease over the next three months. Additionally, there is a 90% probability that the stock will trade within the range of $120.69 and $184.79 at the end of this three-month period
Enphase: Buy Territory (low risk/high reward)Enphase is a solar company that's been growing strongly, fundamentally. What I particularly like about this stock is that unlike most others, it has been making new highs in 2022.
Technically, it's sitting just below it's 200 day bollinger band and is due for a bounce to the mean, but may very well put in a new high.
Note a Q3/Q4 recession would likely bring most stocks to new lows.
ENPH ENPH Funnel Setup with stagger price points and Vertical date focus of the potential prohection. Must break above the 187-213 chop accumulation zone for this meltup to happen.
Currently I see the doji to bearish engulfing candle
I expect a potential drop for 1-2 more weeks before we see a Higher high candle stick to confirm the reversal of trend.
Watch out for the lower if you fail 156 the potential drop support at 139
This is just my rant of potential movement. Not financial advice.
Enjoy the show
AsianPicasso
