UPDATE: HUM, Long, Bought, TP > 30%, P/L=15/1NYSE:HUM , Long, TP >30%, P/L=15/1
(cost according to fundamental calculation 40-50% and more...)
H1UM34 trade ideas
Humana's Stock Plunges But shows Signs of a Reverse Trend
Humana Inc., ( NYSE:HUM ) the second-largest Medicare Advantage company in the U.S., has sent shockwaves through the health insurance sector by revising its earnings guidance for 2025 and projecting 2024 profits well below analysts' expectations. The stock plummeted as much as 15%, marking the most significant intraday drop since June. This unexpected development has ignited concerns about the profitability of private Medicare plans and their potential impact on seniors' healthcare costs.
The Medicare Advantage Dilemma:
Humana's grim outlook stems from challenges faced by private Medicare plans, which have been a significant source of growth for health insurers in recent years. Rising medical costs are forcing Humana ( NYSE:HUM ) to consider raising prices and reducing benefits to maintain profit margins. Executives revealed on a conference call that this move may trigger a broader industry repricing of plans in the upcoming year, potentially signaling the end of the Medicare Advantage boom.
Industry-Wide Ripple Effect:
Humana's forecast has not only impacted its own stock but has also led to a sector-wide sell-off. Competitors such as UnitedHealth Group Inc., Cigna Group, CVS Health Corp., and Centene Corp. experienced substantial declines in their stock prices. The reasons behind the surge in medical costs vary among insurers, adding uncertainty to the already turbulent sector.
Regulatory Changes and Emerging Trends:
Several factors contribute to the challenging landscape for health insurers. The U.S. government's proposed changes to payment rates and plans to recoup past overpayments are colliding with an increase in medical costs as patients resume deferred care from the pandemic. These changes are being phased in over the next three years, creating additional pressure on insurers.
Humana's Long-Term Prospects:
The revised earnings guidance suggests a significant setback for Humana, as the projected adjusted earnings for 2024 are expected to be around $16 per share, a level not seen since 2018. Analysts express surprise and skepticism about the company's growth plans, with some doubting the feasibility of achieving a $6 to $10 per share growth in 2025.
Market Reaction and Investor Concerns:
Humana's dismal performance has ignited concerns among investors about the broader health insurance industry. Analysts are questioning whether the company can return to its long-term multiple and express concerns about slowing demographic trends in the 65+ market, which are expected to moderate in the second half of the 2020s.
Conclusion:
Humana's unexpected downturn serves as a stark reminder of the challenges facing health insurers, particularly those heavily invested in Medicare Advantage plans. The industry is at a crossroads, navigating regulatory changes, surging medical costs, and an uncertain economic landscape. Investors will be closely watching how competitors respond to these challenges and whether the Medicare Advantage boom is indeed coming to an end.
Retest 380 and then towards all time high?Its below its fair value and may retest 380 before heading back towards 600. It may hit all time high in a year or so. Happy trading.
HUMHumana Inc. is a for-profit American health insurance company based in Louisville, Kentucky. In 2023, the company ranked 42 on the Fortune 500 list, which made it the highest ranked company based in Kentucky. It is the fourth largest health insurance provider in the U.S.
Bounce off channel support.
Humana to find buyers at previous support?Humana Inc - 30d expiry - We look to Buy at 480.48 (stop at 468.48)
The primary trend remains bullish.
Bespoke support is located at 480.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
A break of the recent high at 503.52 should result in a further move higher.
We look to buy dips.
478.40 has been pivotal.
Our profit targets will be 510.48 and 518.48
Resistance: 503.52 / 510.00 / 515.00
Support: 486.60 / 479.35 / 470.00
Please be advised that the in formation presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group
HUM - island reversal NYSE:HUM is in the early stages of an island bottom reversal. Island reversals are interesting patterns. They are formed by two gaps that leave a stranded range of price action. They have failure rates of 13% for island tops and 17% for bottoms. Island bottom reversals have an average rise of 34% and a most likely rise of 20%. Island bottoms also throw back to the top of the gap 70% of the time, making entry planning very important. The throwback normally occurs within 9 days
Note that the VWAP from from the November 2022 ATH acted as resistance at the top of the range for the island. Then VWAP from the most recent high before the island formed acted as overhead resistance and stalled price on the breakout. We also have the 200SMA above that is likely to be an area of resistance.
Game plan:
Entry ~$468 which is the fib 0.382 of the retrace from most recent high prior to the island, aligns closely to a throw back to the top of the gap of the island, and the VWAP from the high prior to formation (which should now be strong support)
Take profit - ~$497 which is close to the 0.618 and the 200SMA
Stop loss ~$456.33 which would be 50% of a 20 period ATR below the VWAP from the high prior to the island formation.
Humana Inc (HUM) - Frequency Formula Strategy - ShortStrategy Overview: The Frequency Formula
Our trading strategy, "The Frequency Formula," is built on cutting-edge Fourier Wave Transform theory. The strategy utilizes four unique indicators: the Frequency Formula Chop Indicator (FF-CI), Frequency Formula Trend Indicator (FF-TI), the Frequency Formula Volume Indicator with Combined Ratios (FFVI-CR), and the Frequency Formula Net Buy/Net Sell Volume Indicator (FF-NBNS). Together, they identify optimal entry and exit points based on changes in market trends, volumes, and sentiments.
Why Now Is a Good Time to Enter
The FF-CI and FF-TI suggest that the current market chop and previous bullish trend are transitioning into a solid downward trend. Simultaneously, the FF-UVI-CR indicates increased selling volume and negative sentiment, suggesting strong support for the downward price movement.
What to Look for When Exiting
Keep an eye on our FF-VMI-CR and FF-NBNS Indicators. When the FF-VMI-CR indicator negative volume (red) and positive volume (blue) signals converge or "squeeze", this indicates a significant increase in net buying volume and might indicate a potential trend reversal; also, watch the FF-NBNS indicator's net-buying value (blue) to increase and close at any value greater than zero, at this point you should exit the position.
Remember to always manage your risk, and don't invest more than you can afford to lose. Happy trading!
Humana to find buyers at previous support?Humana Inc - 30d expiry - We look to Buy at 481.11 (stop at 468.38)
Price action continued to range between key support & resistance (480 - 515) although we expect a break of this range soon.
The primary trend remains bullish.
We look to buy dips.
Short term momentum is bearish.
We look for a temporary move lower.
Our profit targets will be 512.88 and 518.88
Resistance: 500 / 510 / 515
Support: 495 / 490 / 480
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Long $HUMHealthcare is beaten down and I am now long Humana (250 shares), United Health Group (500 shares), Cigna (long call options).
Long 1/2 position here. Bounce looks to be imminent. Could go a bit lower but the chart looks excellent for a bounce on this healthcare sector growth company.
Daily hammer candlestick close after a very nice retracement and gap fill. Now time to fill the upside gap.
Note earnings are next week.
Entry: $ 489 (250 shares)
Stop loss: None yet. I will add on any further weakness.
Humana ranging between key support and resistance.Humana Inc - 30d expiry - We look to Buy at 481.11 (stop at 468.38)
Price action continued to range between key support & resistance (480 - 515) although we expect a break of this range soon.
The primary trend remains bullish.
We look to buy dips.
We look for a temporary move lower.
Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile.
Our profit targets will be 512.88 and 518.88
Resistance: 514 / 515 / 528
Support: 500 / 490 / 480
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Descending TriangleTop line slopes down and the bottom line is almost flat.
There is also an M pattern that may be a Bat. This has gone slightly below the .886 but this pattern can also reach the 1.113.
The support of the triangle (bottom line) has contained it fairly well so far.
Price is slightly above the .236 of the trend up in spit of a significant pull back.
No recommendation/Neutral pattern until broken.
Earnings estimated to be 4/26/Most focus on T1 then if T1 is passed the focus becomes T2 etc.
EPS (FWD)
28.12
PE (FWD)
17.58
Div Rate (FWD)
$3.54
Yield (FWD)
0.72%
Short Interest
1.62%
Market Cap
Descending TriangleTop line is sloping down. The bottom line is flat.
Price is still above support.
Triangles are neutral until broken.
Healthcare stocks were run up to the max and now it appears they are paying the price.
No recommendation
$HUM with a bullish outlook following its earnings #Stocks The PEAD projected a bullish outlook for $HUM after a negative under reaction following its earnings release placing the stock in drift D with an expected accuracy of 33.33%.
#HUM weekly 3-2-2 reversalHello dear Traders,
Here is my idea for #HUM
Price closed above yellow line
Targets marked in the chart
Invalidation level marked with red line
IV30 % Rank: 6% Subdued
Good luck!
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Humana seems to continue its downtrendHumana bounced off the Fib resistance zone. Key support at $478.41 needs to hold in order for the trend to change direction. A close above $520.77 may indicate a new uptrend maybe on cards.
Disclaimer: My opinion on stocks are mine alone and not to be taken as Investment advice.
10/23/22 HUMHumana Inc. ( NYSE:HUM )
Sector: Health Services (Managed Health Care)
Market Capitalization: 64.611B
Current Price: $510.54
Breakout price trigger: $515.20
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $496.45-$473.95
Price Target: $562.30-$568.90
Estimated Duration to Target: 147-156d
Contract of Interest: $HUM 1/20/23 520c
Trade price as of publish date: $26.20/contract
HUM: Test previous lows?Humana Inc
Short Term - We look to Sell a break of 480.38 (stop at 489.09)
Short term momentum is bearish. Daily/Weekly Ichimoku Cloud resistance is seen at 488. Further downside is expected. A break of 480.00 is needed to confirm follow through negative momentum.
Our profit targets will be 455.29 and 440.00
Resistance: 500.00 / 520.00 / 580.00
Support: 480.00 / 450.00 / 400.00
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’) . Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
$HUM, $XLV, Healthcare sector worth watching nowIf you have been invested in healthcare stocks or ETF's you may want to take profits between now and the end of October. I am keeping an eye on this chart for some good trades. It is a low volume stock with very low options volume, so be very selective with your entry time/place and your option price. Daily trading ranges can be large or small, so give extra consideration to time frame and holding time in your trade plan.
Please note on the chart:
* Linear regression channel shown from 2019
* Yellow dashed lines showing 370-470 trading range
* Light yellow rectangle shows two-year range which was recently broken higher
* White line (channel center) regularly acts as support or resistance, price is wavering along this line
* RSI only had one instance of going over 67 (white oval) or under 33 since 2019, and that resulted in sharp reversal, for now it is moving lower
* Stochastic %D has completed three peaks since dipping below 30 and is now turning down
Price was weak on Monday and closed lower, but still in its recent range (sideway. I am looking at a few possibilities for trades:
* If the market rallies this week HUM may stay under the white line and selloff down to 457, 435
* If the anticipated October leg down occurs, then price may move up to analysts' 550 price target (also top of channel)
* Price has been sideways for two weeks, so it should move higher/lower soon
CrabBearish Crab.
It appears the last leg up of this Crooked W terminated just above the 1.618.
No recommendation.
Bearish Harami Cross so far today.
Price is well above the .236 of the trend up
Rising Wedges noted.
$HUM with a Bullish outlook following its earnings #Stocks The PEAD projected a Bullish outlook for $HUM after a Negative Under reaction following its earnings release placing the stock in drift D with an expected accuracy of 20%.
Buy ideaA nice running flat detected.
This is the update to the earlier idea for Humana. Linked to this idea.
As a rule for entering any trade, need to get a confirmation.
There are different classical entries - for zigzags, flats, just google. They are simple, but you have to be patient, even if the core structure looks complete.
Don't trade expectations, any entry should be a rules-based one.
Trade safe
