07/19/2018 - IQ Recovery after selloff at open, bullish outlook.Stock appears to be weak, with high volume trading within the first hour. Possible bounceback at around $34.89 in the first 30 minutes after open and/or $35.89 after lunch. Close $35.73 - $38.11. This is my first Gann analysis - constructive feedback is appreciated.
I1QY34 trade ideas
IQ Take off confirmedIn the related idea I went over why I think IQ will be a great chance to go long on a company that will greatly outperform the market as a whole. If you want to read why I think IQ is a good fundamental bet please read it, as here I am just going over the TA. Please.
The 4h chart has been predictive over IQ's short life.
The CM_Ultimate has given us accurate buy and sell signals on this time frame and we just went green.
The 13 and 48 EMAs have been rigorously tested to give the best results for ema trading regimens and the price has surged over both the 13 and 48 and I am sure we will having a bullish cross within a few days of trading, even if we retrace a bit tomorrow or Monday.
The MACD has had its bullish cross.
The Hull MACD achieved liftoff
The Elder's Force Index (nested in the HUll MACD just turned dark green)
All of this resembers the take of we experienced between May7th and May 14ths. I cannot think of anything else I could put on the chart that would discourage a long position on IQ. I am not a cloud trader but we are charging through the cloud right now (not pictured, of course). Not listed above because it is more neutral than buy is the fact the RSI plenty of breathing room for us to establish a new high. I suspect we will be running across the overoubough conditions for quite a while in a repeat of what we see. If we see the conditions the bulleted list change in a month or so we might see another retracement and consolidation but IQ definitely seems to be a fire and forget stock for year after year gains. I don't formally count elliott waves for TA (not that good at it) but at my level I definitely see wave 1 and 2 done and so I am strapping in for wave 3.
IQ - Buy on Dip candidateAnother "candidate" for Buy on DIP - IQ
Price slides ~30% from mid June peak @ 46.
Price retrace to 50% Fibo level. Support at 30 level looks solid
Price stay above EMA50 and starting to cross above EMA20.
Volume is picking up. ~50m traded exceed 40m moving average.
No sell signal from Bollinger Band indicator..
Price closes above high of last 2 candles for the first time with +ve force index.
RR Ratio > 2
IQIYI long bottoming breakout strategyLooks like this one may be bottoming out from retracement. Looking for a higher low to form and then a higher high break through both dotted lines. Green arrow represents long positions. green box represents sell region based on 1.618 fib as well as the prediction of this to form a LARGER long term tightening pennant possibly reversing near green zone. SL is at most previous low or just trail. macd divergence is very low = low volatility = breakout incoming to increase volatility (bull macd cross?)
Technically and Fundemantlly Long on IQIYITechnically
Most people don't use the Hull MACD and it is an interesting creature. The convergence here is very strong and I think predicts a full reversal in the downtrend in price. We see that IQ has been mostly flat over the last 4-6 days visually (not percent-wise) and the Hull MACD just reinforces the fact we have found a local bottom. SHortly I expect we will see a bullish cross on the daily normal MACD as well.
Fundamentally
Free and publically availibe data for broadband penetration is somewhat scarce, and there are a lot of caveats that exist when using wikipedia based sources, but in 2014 China ranked 66th for fixed lone broad band penetration and 77th for mobile/cellular broad band penetration.
Also, the growth of IQ before it went public is impressive:
In mid-2015 the site had 5 million subscribers,
in late 2015/early 2016 it had over 10 million
and by June 2016, it had 20 million.
It seems clear that IQ will continue to have exponential growth as China both improves its broadband penetration and as the existing market adopts it as their web-based streaming platform.
IQ support bounceLooking at the chart of "relatively hot" IQ, seems there is support in the $30.60 range in the last 6 trading days.
With stochastic oversold, and IQ price hitting limit order of $30.60, expecting small bounce to 13-day EMA at 33.75 for a $3 win (almost 10%). That is target #1.
Target #2 is to continue the momentum and hit $37.50 or so for a 20% win. MACD is still positive (but dropping). We will see how the trend goes.
Stop loss at $28. Again this is a momentum stock, so expect some volatility on this one. Good luck out there!