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Arabica Coffee Futures

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ICF1! trade ideas

Good time to start selling CoffeeI believe coffee still has some upside, it will probably reach $290 within a few weeks. Then the demand would start to wear off and soon it will be back to the $125 range. Coffee rarely traded above the current value, any value above $250 is short-lived. So if you are into probability, there is a very high chance coffee will start to reverse its direction. But as it's advised to never go against the trend, wait for the trend to be broken before you go into any selling positions. Probably a good time to start selling coffee in small quantities, and increase the quantity when the coffee reaches near $300.
ICEUS:KC1!Short
by titus22045
1
COFFEE WK1: 100% Gains SWING setup BUY/HOLD(NEW)(SL/TP)Why get subbed to me on Tradingview? -TOP author on TradingView -2000+ ideas published -15+ years experience in markets -Professional chart break downs -Supply/Demand Zones -TD9 counts / combo review -Key S/R levels -No junk on my charts -Frequent updates -Covering FX/crypto/US stocks -before/after analysis -24/7 uptime so constant updates 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment to support our team! COFFEE WK1: 100% Gains SWING setup BUY/HOLD(NEW)(SL/TP) IMPORTANT NOTE: speculative setup. do your own due dill. use STOP LOSS. don't overleverage. 🔸 Summary and potential trade setup ::: COFFEE WK2 chart review ::: chart is LOG SCALE ::: setup still valid expecting ::: 100% gains final TP BULLS ::: global inflation driving prices ::: also global warming heavy impact ::: cycle high for the market is near ::: 440/460 USD BULLS control the market ::: 12/24 months as global economy ::: is starting the recovery right now ::: BULLISH CYCLE is ON BUY DIPS ::: BUY/HOLD get paid / swing trade setup ::: BUY ANY DIPS / final TP bulls is 460 USD ::: 100% upside from current market price ::: WAIT for dips and reload (BULLS) ::: recommend to BUY/HOLD ::: recommended strategy: BUY/HOLD ::: bullish super cycle in coffee market ::: SWING trade setup do not expect ::: fast/miracle overnights gains here ::: good luck traders 🔸 Supply/Demand Zones ::: 100USD fresh demand zone ::: 460USD fresh supply zone 🔸 Other noteworthy technicals/fundies ::: TD9 /Combo update: N/A ::: Sentiment short-term: BULLS / MORE GAINS ::: Sentiment outlook mid-term: BULLS / SUPER CYCLE RISK DISCLAIMER: Trading Crypto, Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
ICEUS:KC1!Long
by ProjectSyndicate
3
Coffee causing a stir in commodity markets- Aneeka Gupta, Director, Macroeconomic Research, WisdomTree Coffee prices are trading at their highest level in 10 years and is the second-best performing commodity Year to date (Ytd)1. A combination of a production shortfall in Brazil (the world’s largest coffee producer) due to extreme weather conditions coupled with supply disruptions should continue to propel coffee prices higher in 2022. Lower inventory levels to keep prices vulnerable to supply shocks The coffee harvest has a biennial cycle. This implies that a crop year with a good harvest (the “on year”) will be followed by a crop year with a lower harvest (the “off-year”). The last crop in Brazil was disappointing not only because it was an off-year, but Brazil also faced unfavourable weather conditions resulting in weaker supply. This was evident from Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento’s (“CONAB”) latest estimate for Brazil’s 2021/22 coffee crop, which is down 25.7% over the prior year3. As a consequence of lower output, global ending inventories are expected to decline from 7.9mn bags to 32mn. The weaker forecast represents the lower availability of coffee for exports, following weather setbacks to the 2021 harvest and logistical bottlenecks. Further obstacles have emerged towards the latter half of 2021 in the form of elevated shipping costs and high fertilizer prices, which are also likely to lend a tailwind to coffee prices. According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Brazil’s coffee exports are expected to slump by 12.45mn bags over the prior year to 33.22mn bags in 2021/224. A decline of that level would represent the largest decline in volume terms by a distance and the sharpest fall in percentage terms at 27% since 1985/86. USDA has been citing more cases of “defaults”, where coffee farmers failed to deliver pre-agreed contracts on the physical market because of excessive hoarding of coffee beans amidst the steep rise in prices. USDA also expects global consumption to rise by 1.8 million bags to 165.0 million, with the largest gains in the European Union, the United States, and Brazil. Outlook for 2022/23 clouded in uncertainty While the Brazilian 2022/23 coffee crop will be an on year (of the biennial cycle), there is still plenty of uncertainty shrouding the outlook of the coffee crop. According to Fitch, the La Nina5 weather phenomenon could cause further problems for the upcoming crop. The arrival of the La Nina weather phenomenon, which tends to bring dryness in the southern part of South America for the second consecutive year, has also dampened the outlook for the coffee crop in the upcoming season. Conclusion The supply tightness on the physical market has also pushed the front end of the coffee futures curve into backwardation from contango, thereby yielding a positive roll yield of 0.2% versus -1.4% a month back. Coffee stocks in the International Continental Exchange’s (ICE) warehouses have declined further and currently find themselves at a 9-month low of 1.78mn bags. Net speculative positioning in coffee remains 1-standard deviation above the 5-year average underscoring the bullish sentiment towards coffee. While the recent rise of the Omicron variant could threaten demand as countries decide to restrain mobility, we believe the fast-spreading variant could also complicate supply-chain disruptions and potentially drive Arabica prices higher. Sources 1 Bloomberg, tracking commodity futures price from 31 December 2020 to 8 December 2021 2 Bloomberg Ticker - KCA Comdty, price performance from 31 December 2020 to 8 December 2021 3 Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (Conab) – Brazil leading coffee forecasting agency 4 United States Department of Agriculture – Coffee: World Markets and Trade Report 5 La Niña is a complex weather pattern that occurs every few years, as a result of variations in ocean temperatures in the equatorial band of the Pacific This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
ICEUS:KC1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
Coffee [13Dec2021]Yes, I track commodities too.. Comparing most of the commodities, almost all of them are bearish or slightly bearish. for example, Silver has been bearish for some time now and also gold has changed from bearish to slightly bearish today with creeping bullishness. but coffee is the only one showing such a strong a bullishness, so do I buy it? If the commodities are having a bad day except one, what does that imply? I don't know but I'm going to open a small long position at the low end of the range. If you have any idea why coffee might be bullish, please let me know below Redd
ICEUS:KC1!Long
by reddan256
4