ICF1! trade ideas
COFFEE (Continuation) LONG - Update; Just a USD/Real Short ...... and nothing more.
Coffee remains a pure currency play on the USD/Real. - And with the Central Bank of Brazil hiking rates faster than any other central bank, this is mostly a one-way trade going into the seasonal peak.
Fundamentally, there is no evidence (0, zilch, nada) that there would be any supply issues at present - despite popular misconceptions to the contrary.
Epic Trades, Legendary Traders. - A collection. Add your own...Add your own trades/finds in the comment section of Epic Trades , whether your own or one of the - preferably lesser know - feats.
Charts Only(!!) , please. (Comments go into the charts)
Here are a few to start it off;
All of the following trades were executed with >$1 Million US and lasted <12 months
Coffee exit at 0.618 extension, no re-entryLike on soybean oil my exit on coffee was the 0.618 extension the last correction range
Short team "KC" ArabicaResistance: 146.80
Support: 140
Some Ideal:
Short: 146.80
Stoploss: 148.80
Target 1: 144.50
Target 2: 142
Target 3: 140
COFFEE Will Fall From Resistance!Sell!
Hello,Traders!
COFFEE futures are now retesting the daily resistance level again
And I think there is a good chance for us to see a pullback
To retest the nearest local support
Sell!
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See other ideas below too!
HIGHER FOOD PRICES!Coffee is one of the most consumed and traded commodities on earth, and it's price is about to explode!
FUNDAMENTALS:
-Despite quadrillions of currency units (DEMAND) created over the past 50 years, coffee prices are only slightly higher...this is because of the massive amount of coffee production around the world (SUPPLY) keeping a ceiling on prices. Debased fiat currencies (DEMAND) will prevent any significantly lower prices and make higher prices inevitable.
-Currency creation however is being ramped up to unprecedented levels (DEMAND) and increased government intervention around the world will hinder continued global production (SUPPLY).
-Weakness in the dollar relative to the currencies of coffee-producing nations (DEMAND) will bid up prices.
-Rising energy prices will increase costs (SUPPLY), pushing prices higher.
-A period of record cold temperatures linked to the Grand Solar Minimum will lead to slowing and potentially shrinking production (SUPPLY)
TECHNICALS:
-The 10$ price range of 115-125$ per contract with the most volume has been successfully absorbed.
-A massive amount of volume was traded at 50-75% lower prices from the 2011 peak, at the lowest levels in over a decade.
-A price-volume divergence has occurred, as during the correction from the 2011 peak volume continually increased.
-The corrective descending wedge from the 2011 peak has been broken and retested by bullish reversal candlestick patterns.
-Volatility has continually decreased for over two decades as prices have remained subdued, therefore an inevitable increase in volatility will likely occur during/after a significant increase in prices.
Long July Coffee At Bargain Basement PricesCoffee price have fallen into bargain basement levels following recent EU lock-downs. However, Brazilian supply dynamics remain bullish, the Brazilian currency just broke its 6-session losing streak, and the EU will eventually be open for business. So when things seem to be at their worse, now is the time to buy. Best option: buy vertical call spreads. I like July options long 125 call, short 140 call.
Coffee daily/4h descending triangle to the weekly support levelCoffee is forming a descending triangle in the daily/4h chart. Also, the price is at a major support/resistance level. There will be a retest at 130-131 level. If rejected again, most likely the price will fall down to the 115 level in the short-mid term.
There is a good support level in the weekly chart, most probably this will hold and coffee could become bullish again. This time it will target 160.
This is just an idea, not trade advice. Do your own research.
COFFEE Wedge Breakout Sell!
Hello,Traders!
Coffee hit strong horizontal resistance
While trading in a bear wedge pattern
And now we can see a conclusive breakout
Which makes me bearish biased
And I am expecting bearish continuation
After the pullback
To retest the lows of the wedge
Sell!
Like, comment and subscribe to boost your trading!
See other ideas below too!
COFFEE - LONG (for now); Free coffee for your Great Depression!Could Coffee drop to $0 (or even go negative), much like crude oil did not too long ago??... You be the judge.
While currently long (a generational speculative bubble and all), this is likely the one to watch for one of the greatest Short Setups in ages!
Here is the Monthly. See it, yet?...
No?!
The Quarterly;
How about now?
Still no?! Let me zoom in for you.
Stocks drop and rising interest rates Commodities set to rise!As the stocks correct by 10% or more, I believe that the coming commodity bull market is set to come very early. The second factor for a commodity bull market is the rising interest rates. This is very bad for stocks, growth stocks especially as they cannot borrow more money to grow their company. The third and a bit smaller factor is that the dxy is rising and if the dollar rises, the stocks fall and then commodities rise. This is a hot new market to look for here. Warning2 I am not a financial adviser and take this with a grain of salt. Happy trading!
Traditional|KC1!|Long and shortLong and short KC1!
Activation of the transaction only when the blue zone is fixed/broken.
Working out the support and resistance levels of the consolidation zone.
* Possible closing of a trade before reaching the take/stop zone. The author can close the deal for subjective reasons, this does not completely cancel the idea and is not a call to the same action, you can continue working out the idea according to your data, but without the support of the author.
The "forecast" tool is used for more noticeable display of % (for the place of the usual % scale) of the price change, I do not put the date and time of the transaction, only %.
The breakdown of the upper blue zone - long.
Breakdown of the lower blue zone - short.
Working out the stop when the price returns to the level after activation + fixing in the red zone.
Blue zones - activation zones.
Green zone - take zone.
Red zone - stop zone.
Orange arrows indicate the direction of the take.
Red arrows indicate the direction of the stop.
Priority - The value of the priority parameter implies the author's subjective opinion about the more likely activation zone on this idea, this does not mean that this idea will be 80% activated by this parameter, the purpose of the parameter is to provide for the risk of the inverse of the zone parameter.
Example: "Priority Long: So the author inclines more in the direction of the activation zone open long trades, in this case, when reaching the activation zone in short you should be very careful, because this area may be highly likely to be punched about the breakdown/do not get to take/activate transaction from go to stop."
Please consider this parameter if you use my ideas.
SUM PNL: This parameter displays the total % of all closed ideas of the "new" format (according to the author) for this sector at the time of publication of the idea. The calculation is very "clumsy" just the sum of the profits of all the ideas, based on this indicator, you can more accurately assess the risks when working with my ideas of this sector. I present you the construction of the idea, you can use it yourself as you like based on your subjective view and risks, the calculation of the PNL indicator is carried out only on transactions that the author closed on TV in manual mode or by take.
P.S Please use RM (risk management) and MM (money management) if you decide to use my ideas, there will always be unprofitable ideas, this will definitely happen, the goal of the system is that there will be more profitable ideas at a distance.
Coffee, Global Agriculture Inflation BoomNotice the major multi-year higher low formed in 2019, followed by the rounding basing pattern and subsequent breakout outside of the multi-year triangle.
The higher low in 2019, before the Covid deflation crash, tells me the agriculture complex was already bottoming ahead of Covid and now has a full head of steam.
Corn, Soybeans, Sugar, Fertilizer have all been ripping to the upside like mad.
Way to play coffee is through the ETF NIB
Not investment advice. DYODD
