ICF1! trade ideas
COFFEE - LONG (for now); Free coffee for your Great Depression!Could Coffee drop to $0 (or even go negative), much like crude oil did not too long ago??... You be the judge.
While currently long (a generational speculative bubble and all), this is likely the one to watch for one of the greatest Short Setups in ages!
Here is the Monthly. See it, yet?...
No?!
The Quarterly;
How about now?
Still no?! Let me zoom in for you.
Stocks drop and rising interest rates Commodities set to rise!As the stocks correct by 10% or more, I believe that the coming commodity bull market is set to come very early. The second factor for a commodity bull market is the rising interest rates. This is very bad for stocks, growth stocks especially as they cannot borrow more money to grow their company. The third and a bit smaller factor is that the dxy is rising and if the dollar rises, the stocks fall and then commodities rise. This is a hot new market to look for here. Warning2 I am not a financial adviser and take this with a grain of salt. Happy trading!
Traditional|KC1!|Long and shortLong and short KC1!
Activation of the transaction only when the blue zone is fixed/broken.
Working out the support and resistance levels of the consolidation zone.
* Possible closing of a trade before reaching the take/stop zone. The author can close the deal for subjective reasons, this does not completely cancel the idea and is not a call to the same action, you can continue working out the idea according to your data, but without the support of the author.
The "forecast" tool is used for more noticeable display of % (for the place of the usual % scale) of the price change, I do not put the date and time of the transaction, only %.
The breakdown of the upper blue zone - long.
Breakdown of the lower blue zone - short.
Working out the stop when the price returns to the level after activation + fixing in the red zone.
Blue zones - activation zones.
Green zone - take zone.
Red zone - stop zone.
Orange arrows indicate the direction of the take.
Red arrows indicate the direction of the stop.
Priority - The value of the priority parameter implies the author's subjective opinion about the more likely activation zone on this idea, this does not mean that this idea will be 80% activated by this parameter, the purpose of the parameter is to provide for the risk of the inverse of the zone parameter.
Example: "Priority Long: So the author inclines more in the direction of the activation zone open long trades, in this case, when reaching the activation zone in short you should be very careful, because this area may be highly likely to be punched about the breakdown/do not get to take/activate transaction from go to stop."
Please consider this parameter if you use my ideas.
SUM PNL: This parameter displays the total % of all closed ideas of the "new" format (according to the author) for this sector at the time of publication of the idea. The calculation is very "clumsy" just the sum of the profits of all the ideas, based on this indicator, you can more accurately assess the risks when working with my ideas of this sector. I present you the construction of the idea, you can use it yourself as you like based on your subjective view and risks, the calculation of the PNL indicator is carried out only on transactions that the author closed on TV in manual mode or by take.
P.S Please use RM (risk management) and MM (money management) if you decide to use my ideas, there will always be unprofitable ideas, this will definitely happen, the goal of the system is that there will be more profitable ideas at a distance.
Coffee, Global Agriculture Inflation BoomNotice the major multi-year higher low formed in 2019, followed by the rounding basing pattern and subsequent breakout outside of the multi-year triangle.
The higher low in 2019, before the Covid deflation crash, tells me the agriculture complex was already bottoming ahead of Covid and now has a full head of steam.
Corn, Soybeans, Sugar, Fertilizer have all been ripping to the upside like mad.
Way to play coffee is through the ETF NIB
Not investment advice. DYODD
COFFEE IS BREWING Look at the structure... from Highs to lows before explosive uptrends of over 150pts 4 out of 5 happen in Janurary : )
Weather patters in 4 of the 5 Major Growing reagions are severly stressed : )
Coffee Future is getting closer to pick a direction...KC=F has been in a vicious bear market just like many agricultural commodities. There is a down trend line since May, 2011. It is getting close to the apex of the symmetrical triangle as well. If it breaks up, it will be pretty bullish and it may be the start of new bull market in Coffee.
Coffee - SHORT; SELL it right here!!This is good for 20.00, strait to 110.00!
The Real has stayed suppressed, at least until now, nevertheless, this is a major short here.
Here is the Weekly;
Chances are that this is headed much much lower from here.
COFFEE POSSIBLE ENTRY FOR SHORT.COFFEE WITH A GREAT SHORT CHANCE, SECOND CONTRIBUTION LET'S WAIT FOR THE PROFIT, I THANK YOUR FEEDBACK, THANK YOU
Sipping coffee and making money at same timeThink of coffee not just as a hot beverage but from a business perspective. I make mention about businesses that stick have an economic moat in some way as it drives consumers to keep on keeping on their habits , like drinking coffee at least once a day.
It is no longer just serving as a functional benefit but in many aspects - a way of doing business. When you meet up with a client for a short meeting , you say - let's catch up over coffee. And because coffee is a hot beverage compared to Orange Juice or other cold beverages, it allows you to buy more time with your clients.
Of course, now times have changed and the Gen Y and Z are the ones that flock to the coffee joints to do their homework, a meeting place to chill and relax with friends. And the coffee menu has moved on from the traditional hot to cold as well, like Iced cappuccino, mocha, etc.
So, don't just spend the next 5 or 6 dollars in the coffee joints without taking some money back from the market. When you know your coffee is being subsidised by the commodity market, does it not feel better in the taste, fragrance and all ?
Traditional|KC1!|LongLong KC1!
TA:
More accurate entry into the trade will be when the triangular consolidation zone/pattern is broken (Screenshot attached).
Globally, on the weekly and monthly chart, you can notice the cyclical nature of this asset, highlighting with the help of the linear tool "baseline" set at 25%, you can more clearly determine the zones in which the instrument has the best prices for building a long-term long position.
I also noticed a pattern, if the price either immediately goes below 25% of the line or does not stay there for a long time, after which the "bull market" begins now this is the situation, the price was able to gain a foothold at the border of 25% of the line.
From the last global price high of 308,9 and the next local highs of the downtrend, a trend line/resistance level was formed, which was broken on 04.10.19 and in the subsequent testing acted as a line/support level. I consider the breakout and consolidation above and the absence of further fall after the breakout of this level-a signal to stop the downward movement and the formation of a consolidation/accumulation zone (Screenshot attached).
The beginning of the formation of the consolidation zone can be seen with the beginning of changes in the dynamics of local lows and highs (indicated by blue ticks), in the subsequent development of the price, the lows were higher than the previous ones, as well as some highs, they formed a triangular consolidation/accumulation zone after which growth can follow. (Screenshot attached).
You can also select 3 stages/cycles of price development, descending, accumulation zone and growth, highlighted in red, yellow, green (Screenshot attached).
I highlighted on the chart a possible change in the dynamics of global trend support levels (Screenshot attached).
The take level is determined using three fibonacci levels, global, local within the downtrend and the fibo level to determine the take price, using the resulting combination of zones, I determined the zone for the take (highlighted in orange) (Screenshot attached).
The stop-loss zone is highlighted in red, it is located under the last support level of the global fibonacci and under the global trend level (Screenshot attached).
We also considered the scenario with no penetration of the triangular pattern (highlighted with red arrows) (Screenshot attached).
There are 2 positive outcomes in which the idea as a whole will be relevant, and the resulting levels will be attractive to buy:
1. Rebound or not consolidate at the upper boundary of the triangle and a drop of its support, then the price is going to retest resistance.
2. Rebound or failure to fix on the upper boundary of the triangle and fall to its support, support does not hold the price and the price falls to the support level of the global fibo.
Weekly coffee market review 12/21/2020.Support us by consulting our free magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF ARABICA COFFEE
Last week, ICE US coffee futures closed higher at 125.25 ct/lb. Arabica coffee prices, although they could not reach them, approached the highs of August.
The USDA reduced world coffee production by 0.34% to 175.50 million bags. They forecast world coffee demand for the same period at 165.40 million bags. Their latest forecast would indicate the potential for a world coffee surplus of 10.1 million bags.
CONAB, announced that Brazilian coffee producers, due to positive biennial factors for Arabica coffee plantations, are expected to produce 63.08 million bags for the season from July 2020 to June 2021. This estimate has been revised upwards by 2.36% compared to their previous estimate of 61.62 million bags. CONAB has revised its projections for Arabica coffee production upwards by 3.17% compared to its last estimate, which is now expected to total 48.80 million bags, while Robusta production has also been revised upwards by 0.70% compared to their last estimate to 14.30 million bags. The area under coffee cultivation in Brazil increased by 3.9% in 2020 compared to the previous year, to 1.88 million hectares.
On the international level, the Republican leader of the Senate Mitch McConnell announced Sunday evening that a 900 billion agreement would be reached. The Fed said its stock purchases would continue at the current rate of $120 billion per month until substantial additional progress has been made. The brexit saga continues, with the European Parliament's Sunday night deadline for a deal passed, but negotiations will continue. No one seems to want to take responsibility for a possible failure. After Pfizer, the FDA also approved Moderna's vaccine. As far as the pandemic is concerned, the vaccination campaign has started in the United States. The new strain of coronavirus detected in Great Britain worries, it would be 70% more contagious. The global death toll is rising, we have just passed 76 million cases worldwide, with more than 1.692 million deaths. The United States is still the most affected country, with 317,000 deaths and more than 17 million cases.
The Dollar fell last week, with the DXY closing lower at 89.924, hitting a 2 1/2 year low. The long-term trend is still bearish.
WEATHER IN BRAZIL
90% of Brazilian coffee is grown in 4 regions: Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo, Sao Paulo and Parana.
The rainy season has started and lasts until April-May. Rainfall was below normal in October and November in the Brazilian coffee belt. The rains were late in coming and irreversible damage is feared for the next harvest. Last week, rains were below normal, especially in northern Minas Gerais. However, the wet weather in December is perceived as more favorable for the next harvest. Heavy rains are expected next week.
ICE US CERTIFIED COFFEE STOCKS
Coffee stocks are up to 1.370 million 60 Kg bags, compared to 1.324 last week. ICE US stocks of Arabica coffee are below the five-year average. The low stocks may provide some support to the coffee price on futures contracts.
THE DOLLAR
The DXY index representing the Dollar against a basket of foreign currencies closed last week down to 89.924, hitting a 2 1/2 year low. The long-term trend is still bearish. The possibilities of reaching an agreement on a contingency plan to support the U.S. economy, as well as the possibility of an economic recovery, are expected to continue.
Disappointing economic results weighed on the currency last week. Indeed, U.S. Retail Sales down to -0.9% and Unemployment Claims up to 885K disappointed.
The Brazilian Real closed stable at 0.1962 last week. The Brazilian Real has been benefiting in recent weeks from the falling Dollar, breaking the bearish channel it was in, and benefiting greatly from the rise in coffee prices this past week. If the dollar's downtrend remains unchanged, the Real will surely test the 0.20 it hasn't reached since June. The BRL/USD pair is positively correlated with coffee futures prices. A low Real increases the competitiveness of Brazilian producers and encourages them to export.
COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS
The weekly COT (Commitments of Traders) report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows all the positions opened by all market participants. The COT report is published on Friday, and reflects the open positions on Tuesday of the same week. It shows the position of commercial traders (producers, commodity buyers, ...) but also non-commercial (speculators).
The net positions of speculators on the futures markets are particularly interesting to observe.
The speculative net position on the cotton futures markets is up this week to 36.105 K instead of 31.519 K.
COFFEE (kc1!) - SHORT; SELL it right here!It's headed under a buck - <100!
The Weekly;
This looks finished. - A Massive SHORT!!
COFFEE DAILY LONG I guess coffee must follow EUR/USD with some lag. Everything is lining perfectly . Deep pullbacks are quite possible but the upside looks guaranteed for now.
Weekly coffee market review 12/14/2020.Support us by consulting our free magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF ARABICA COFFEE
Last week, ICE US coffee futures closed higher at 121.60 ct/lb.
The International Coffee Organization ICO reported that world coffee exports for October were 3.19% higher than the same month last year at 9.672 million bags. Cumulative world coffee exports for the first 10 months of 2020 were 3.8% lower than the previous year, totalling 107.08 million bags. According to the ICO, world coffee supply is estimated at 168.55 million bags over the last 12 months, and world consumption at around 167.59 million bags. This would result in a world coffee market in slight oversupply.
The association of coffee exporters in Brazil Cecafé reported that exports were 3.69 million bags of Arabica coffee, an increase of 33.85% compared to the same month last year.
Regarding Robusta coffee, the trade in Vietnam is now in full swing as farmers begin to supply more and more coffee. The harvest is estimated to be 25% complete and is accelerating now that weather conditions are more favorable and drier. Forecasts are estimated for this new crop, between 27 million and 28 million bags for Vietnam and 11.60 million bags for Indonesia.
In Brazil, more favourable weather in early December is being observed with heavy rains over the vast coffee growing areas in Brazil. The rainy weather is welcome after months of drier weather, although irreversible damage will be expected. Local consumption in Brazil, at around 21.50 million bags per year, is expected to be slightly lower overall this year.
Internationally, the ECB has increased its asset repurchase program by 500 billion, the US support plan is still slow in coming, and a brexit no-deal is increasingly likely. The FDA in turn is approving the use of Pfizer's vaccine, and vaccination begins this week in the US. In terms of the pandemic update, we have just surpassed 72 million cases worldwide, with more than 1.607 million deaths. The U.S. is still the most affected country, and will approach and surpass the 300,000 mark in deaths and more than 16 million cases.
The Dollar consolidated last week as the DXY closed higher at 90.976, with the long-term trend still bearish.
WEATHER IN BRAZIL
90% of Brazilian coffee is grown in 4 regions: Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo, Sao Paulo and Parana.
The rainy season has started and lasts until April-May. Rainfall was below normal in October and November in the Brazilian coffee belt. The rains were late in coming and irreversible damage is feared for the next harvest. Last week, rains were abundant, with up to 75 to 100 mm, especially in Minas Gerais. The rainy weather in December is seen as more favorable for the next harvest. Next week, heavy rains are also expected, but this time further south in Sao Paulo and Parana.
ICE US CERTIFIED COFFEE STOCKS
Coffee stocks are up to 1.324 million 60 kg bags, compared to 1.294 last week. ICE US stocks of Arabica coffee are below the five-year average. The low stocks may provide some support to the coffee price on futures contracts.
THE DOLLAR
The DXY index representing the Dollar against a basket of foreign currencies closed last week up at 90.976, although the long-term trend is still bearish. The DXY consolidated last week. The ECB increased its asset repurchase program by $500 billion, and, the U.S. support plan is still lagging behind, still failing to agree on emergency aid of just over $900 billion. The dollar has also strengthened against the pound sterling, on an increasingly likely no-deal, as the disagreements seem so deep.
Last week, the Brazilian Real closed higher at 0.1971, for the 4th consecutive week. The Brazilian Real has been benefiting in recent weeks from the falling Dollar, breaking the bearish channel it was in, and benefiting greatly from the rise in coffee prices this past week. If the dollar's downtrend remains unchanged, the Real will surely test the 0.20 it hasn't reached since June. The BRL/USD pair is positively correlated with coffee futures prices. A low Real increases the competitiveness of Brazilian producers and encourages them to export.
COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS
The weekly COT (Commitments of Traders) report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows all the positions opened by all market participants. The COT report is published on Friday, and reflects the open positions on Tuesday of the same week. It shows the position of commercial traders (producers, commodity buyers, ...) but also non-commercial (speculators).
The net positions of speculators on the futures markets are particularly interesting to observe.
The speculative net position on the cotton futures markets is down this week to 31.519 K instead of 32.265 K.
KC on a retest of the support 🦐KC after the last impulse at 134 level retraced back until the 0.786 of the previous leg at the 102 level.
From there the market started a new leg up until the daily resistance at 124.
Price retraced back and moved in a range between the 0.382 over a support and the resistance structure and recently broke above.
IF the price will not break below and give us new sign of inversion will be set a nice long order according to Plancton' s strategy.
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Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure.
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
