ICF1! trade ideas
Coffee Future is getting closer to pick a direction...KC=F has been in a vicious bear market just like many agricultural commodities. There is a down trend line since May, 2011. It is getting close to the apex of the symmetrical triangle as well. If it breaks up, it will be pretty bullish and it may be the start of new bull market in Coffee.
Coffee - SHORT; SELL it right here!!This is good for 20.00, strait to 110.00!
The Real has stayed suppressed, at least until now, nevertheless, this is a major short here.
Here is the Weekly;
Chances are that this is headed much much lower from here.
COFFEE POSSIBLE ENTRY FOR SHORT.COFFEE WITH A GREAT SHORT CHANCE, SECOND CONTRIBUTION LET'S WAIT FOR THE PROFIT, I THANK YOUR FEEDBACK, THANK YOU
Sipping coffee and making money at same timeThink of coffee not just as a hot beverage but from a business perspective. I make mention about businesses that stick have an economic moat in some way as it drives consumers to keep on keeping on their habits , like drinking coffee at least once a day.
It is no longer just serving as a functional benefit but in many aspects - a way of doing business. When you meet up with a client for a short meeting , you say - let's catch up over coffee. And because coffee is a hot beverage compared to Orange Juice or other cold beverages, it allows you to buy more time with your clients.
Of course, now times have changed and the Gen Y and Z are the ones that flock to the coffee joints to do their homework, a meeting place to chill and relax with friends. And the coffee menu has moved on from the traditional hot to cold as well, like Iced cappuccino, mocha, etc.
So, don't just spend the next 5 or 6 dollars in the coffee joints without taking some money back from the market. When you know your coffee is being subsidised by the commodity market, does it not feel better in the taste, fragrance and all ?
Traditional|KC1!|LongLong KC1!
TA:
More accurate entry into the trade will be when the triangular consolidation zone/pattern is broken (Screenshot attached).
Globally, on the weekly and monthly chart, you can notice the cyclical nature of this asset, highlighting with the help of the linear tool "baseline" set at 25%, you can more clearly determine the zones in which the instrument has the best prices for building a long-term long position.
I also noticed a pattern, if the price either immediately goes below 25% of the line or does not stay there for a long time, after which the "bull market" begins now this is the situation, the price was able to gain a foothold at the border of 25% of the line.
From the last global price high of 308,9 and the next local highs of the downtrend, a trend line/resistance level was formed, which was broken on 04.10.19 and in the subsequent testing acted as a line/support level. I consider the breakout and consolidation above and the absence of further fall after the breakout of this level-a signal to stop the downward movement and the formation of a consolidation/accumulation zone (Screenshot attached).
The beginning of the formation of the consolidation zone can be seen with the beginning of changes in the dynamics of local lows and highs (indicated by blue ticks), in the subsequent development of the price, the lows were higher than the previous ones, as well as some highs, they formed a triangular consolidation/accumulation zone after which growth can follow. (Screenshot attached).
You can also select 3 stages/cycles of price development, descending, accumulation zone and growth, highlighted in red, yellow, green (Screenshot attached).
I highlighted on the chart a possible change in the dynamics of global trend support levels (Screenshot attached).
The take level is determined using three fibonacci levels, global, local within the downtrend and the fibo level to determine the take price, using the resulting combination of zones, I determined the zone for the take (highlighted in orange) (Screenshot attached).
The stop-loss zone is highlighted in red, it is located under the last support level of the global fibonacci and under the global trend level (Screenshot attached).
We also considered the scenario with no penetration of the triangular pattern (highlighted with red arrows) (Screenshot attached).
There are 2 positive outcomes in which the idea as a whole will be relevant, and the resulting levels will be attractive to buy:
1. Rebound or not consolidate at the upper boundary of the triangle and a drop of its support, then the price is going to retest resistance.
2. Rebound or failure to fix on the upper boundary of the triangle and fall to its support, support does not hold the price and the price falls to the support level of the global fibo.
Weekly coffee market review 12/21/2020.Support us by consulting our free magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF ARABICA COFFEE
Last week, ICE US coffee futures closed higher at 125.25 ct/lb. Arabica coffee prices, although they could not reach them, approached the highs of August.
The USDA reduced world coffee production by 0.34% to 175.50 million bags. They forecast world coffee demand for the same period at 165.40 million bags. Their latest forecast would indicate the potential for a world coffee surplus of 10.1 million bags.
CONAB, announced that Brazilian coffee producers, due to positive biennial factors for Arabica coffee plantations, are expected to produce 63.08 million bags for the season from July 2020 to June 2021. This estimate has been revised upwards by 2.36% compared to their previous estimate of 61.62 million bags. CONAB has revised its projections for Arabica coffee production upwards by 3.17% compared to its last estimate, which is now expected to total 48.80 million bags, while Robusta production has also been revised upwards by 0.70% compared to their last estimate to 14.30 million bags. The area under coffee cultivation in Brazil increased by 3.9% in 2020 compared to the previous year, to 1.88 million hectares.
On the international level, the Republican leader of the Senate Mitch McConnell announced Sunday evening that a 900 billion agreement would be reached. The Fed said its stock purchases would continue at the current rate of $120 billion per month until substantial additional progress has been made. The brexit saga continues, with the European Parliament's Sunday night deadline for a deal passed, but negotiations will continue. No one seems to want to take responsibility for a possible failure. After Pfizer, the FDA also approved Moderna's vaccine. As far as the pandemic is concerned, the vaccination campaign has started in the United States. The new strain of coronavirus detected in Great Britain worries, it would be 70% more contagious. The global death toll is rising, we have just passed 76 million cases worldwide, with more than 1.692 million deaths. The United States is still the most affected country, with 317,000 deaths and more than 17 million cases.
The Dollar fell last week, with the DXY closing lower at 89.924, hitting a 2 1/2 year low. The long-term trend is still bearish.
WEATHER IN BRAZIL
90% of Brazilian coffee is grown in 4 regions: Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo, Sao Paulo and Parana.
The rainy season has started and lasts until April-May. Rainfall was below normal in October and November in the Brazilian coffee belt. The rains were late in coming and irreversible damage is feared for the next harvest. Last week, rains were below normal, especially in northern Minas Gerais. However, the wet weather in December is perceived as more favorable for the next harvest. Heavy rains are expected next week.
ICE US CERTIFIED COFFEE STOCKS
Coffee stocks are up to 1.370 million 60 Kg bags, compared to 1.324 last week. ICE US stocks of Arabica coffee are below the five-year average. The low stocks may provide some support to the coffee price on futures contracts.
THE DOLLAR
The DXY index representing the Dollar against a basket of foreign currencies closed last week down to 89.924, hitting a 2 1/2 year low. The long-term trend is still bearish. The possibilities of reaching an agreement on a contingency plan to support the U.S. economy, as well as the possibility of an economic recovery, are expected to continue.
Disappointing economic results weighed on the currency last week. Indeed, U.S. Retail Sales down to -0.9% and Unemployment Claims up to 885K disappointed.
The Brazilian Real closed stable at 0.1962 last week. The Brazilian Real has been benefiting in recent weeks from the falling Dollar, breaking the bearish channel it was in, and benefiting greatly from the rise in coffee prices this past week. If the dollar's downtrend remains unchanged, the Real will surely test the 0.20 it hasn't reached since June. The BRL/USD pair is positively correlated with coffee futures prices. A low Real increases the competitiveness of Brazilian producers and encourages them to export.
COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS
The weekly COT (Commitments of Traders) report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows all the positions opened by all market participants. The COT report is published on Friday, and reflects the open positions on Tuesday of the same week. It shows the position of commercial traders (producers, commodity buyers, ...) but also non-commercial (speculators).
The net positions of speculators on the futures markets are particularly interesting to observe.
The speculative net position on the cotton futures markets is up this week to 36.105 K instead of 31.519 K.
COFFEE (kc1!) - SHORT; SELL it right here!It's headed under a buck - <100!
The Weekly;
This looks finished. - A Massive SHORT!!
COFFEE DAILY LONG I guess coffee must follow EUR/USD with some lag. Everything is lining perfectly . Deep pullbacks are quite possible but the upside looks guaranteed for now.
Weekly coffee market review 12/14/2020.Support us by consulting our free magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF ARABICA COFFEE
Last week, ICE US coffee futures closed higher at 121.60 ct/lb.
The International Coffee Organization ICO reported that world coffee exports for October were 3.19% higher than the same month last year at 9.672 million bags. Cumulative world coffee exports for the first 10 months of 2020 were 3.8% lower than the previous year, totalling 107.08 million bags. According to the ICO, world coffee supply is estimated at 168.55 million bags over the last 12 months, and world consumption at around 167.59 million bags. This would result in a world coffee market in slight oversupply.
The association of coffee exporters in Brazil Cecafé reported that exports were 3.69 million bags of Arabica coffee, an increase of 33.85% compared to the same month last year.
Regarding Robusta coffee, the trade in Vietnam is now in full swing as farmers begin to supply more and more coffee. The harvest is estimated to be 25% complete and is accelerating now that weather conditions are more favorable and drier. Forecasts are estimated for this new crop, between 27 million and 28 million bags for Vietnam and 11.60 million bags for Indonesia.
In Brazil, more favourable weather in early December is being observed with heavy rains over the vast coffee growing areas in Brazil. The rainy weather is welcome after months of drier weather, although irreversible damage will be expected. Local consumption in Brazil, at around 21.50 million bags per year, is expected to be slightly lower overall this year.
Internationally, the ECB has increased its asset repurchase program by 500 billion, the US support plan is still slow in coming, and a brexit no-deal is increasingly likely. The FDA in turn is approving the use of Pfizer's vaccine, and vaccination begins this week in the US. In terms of the pandemic update, we have just surpassed 72 million cases worldwide, with more than 1.607 million deaths. The U.S. is still the most affected country, and will approach and surpass the 300,000 mark in deaths and more than 16 million cases.
The Dollar consolidated last week as the DXY closed higher at 90.976, with the long-term trend still bearish.
WEATHER IN BRAZIL
90% of Brazilian coffee is grown in 4 regions: Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo, Sao Paulo and Parana.
The rainy season has started and lasts until April-May. Rainfall was below normal in October and November in the Brazilian coffee belt. The rains were late in coming and irreversible damage is feared for the next harvest. Last week, rains were abundant, with up to 75 to 100 mm, especially in Minas Gerais. The rainy weather in December is seen as more favorable for the next harvest. Next week, heavy rains are also expected, but this time further south in Sao Paulo and Parana.
ICE US CERTIFIED COFFEE STOCKS
Coffee stocks are up to 1.324 million 60 kg bags, compared to 1.294 last week. ICE US stocks of Arabica coffee are below the five-year average. The low stocks may provide some support to the coffee price on futures contracts.
THE DOLLAR
The DXY index representing the Dollar against a basket of foreign currencies closed last week up at 90.976, although the long-term trend is still bearish. The DXY consolidated last week. The ECB increased its asset repurchase program by $500 billion, and, the U.S. support plan is still lagging behind, still failing to agree on emergency aid of just over $900 billion. The dollar has also strengthened against the pound sterling, on an increasingly likely no-deal, as the disagreements seem so deep.
Last week, the Brazilian Real closed higher at 0.1971, for the 4th consecutive week. The Brazilian Real has been benefiting in recent weeks from the falling Dollar, breaking the bearish channel it was in, and benefiting greatly from the rise in coffee prices this past week. If the dollar's downtrend remains unchanged, the Real will surely test the 0.20 it hasn't reached since June. The BRL/USD pair is positively correlated with coffee futures prices. A low Real increases the competitiveness of Brazilian producers and encourages them to export.
COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS
The weekly COT (Commitments of Traders) report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows all the positions opened by all market participants. The COT report is published on Friday, and reflects the open positions on Tuesday of the same week. It shows the position of commercial traders (producers, commodity buyers, ...) but also non-commercial (speculators).
The net positions of speculators on the futures markets are particularly interesting to observe.
The speculative net position on the cotton futures markets is down this week to 31.519 K instead of 32.265 K.
KC on a retest of the support 🦐KC after the last impulse at 134 level retraced back until the 0.786 of the previous leg at the 102 level.
From there the market started a new leg up until the daily resistance at 124.
Price retraced back and moved in a range between the 0.382 over a support and the resistance structure and recently broke above.
IF the price will not break below and give us new sign of inversion will be set a nice long order according to Plancton' s strategy.
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Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure.
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Coffee Consolidation The saying goes like "low prices cure low prices" always keep in mind that Commodities are finite resources.
ABC BullishMarch 2021 Continuous Contract
Possible stop below C or last pivot low
Not a recommendation
Weekly coffee market review 12/07/2020.Support us by consulting our free daily magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF ARABICA COFFEE
Last week, ICE US coffee futures closed lower at 117.55 ct/lb.
The National Federation of Coffee Growers of Colombia reported that the country's coffee production for November was 63,000 bags, 4.18% less than the same month last year, for a total of 1,443,000 bags. She also reported that the country's coffee exports for November were 109,000 bags, 9.38% more than the same month last year, for a total of 1,271,000 bags.
Arabica coffee almost erased the increase of the previous week. Fears that the crop in Central America will be affected are now over.
Arabica coffee prices had benefited from concerns about Robusta coffee supply. Vietnam, the largest producer of this type of coffee, experienced very heavy rains after the passage of several typhoons, raising fears of a smaller crop. The worst of the storms have now passed, weather conditions are better and the harvest is very active.
In Brazil, forecasts for the next harvest are still on the decline due to the effects of drought. Rainfall in the Brazilian coffee belt this summer and also in October and November has been below normal.
Internationally, last week was marked by the sharp fall of the dollar. The DXY, after breaking through the resistance of the 92, is heading towards the 90, and the Euro was close to $1.22 after disappointing US empoi figures. Hopes for a vaccine, the FED reaffirming that the priority remains to support the economy, and the joint Democratic and Republican proposal for a $908 billion emergency plan are driving equity markets. Curiously, commodities as a whole did not benefit from the dollar's decline.
Discussions between the British and the Europeans continue as the December 31 deadline approaches in the hope of reaching a post-brexit trade agreement. Regarding the pandemic update, we have just passed the 67 million cases worldwide, with more than 1.537 million deaths. The United States continues to be the most affected country with more than 282,000 deaths and more than 14.7 million cases. Italy has passed the 60,000 death mark, and the United States is facing a spectacular rebound of the epidemic with more than 230,000 cases in 24 hours on Saturday. The United Kingdom, the first country to authorize Pfizer vaccine, begins vaccination on Tuesday.
WEATHER IN BRAZIL
90% of Brazilian coffee is grown in 4 regions: Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo, Sao Paulo and Parana.
The rainy season has started and lasts until April-May. Rainfall was below normal in October in the Brazilian coffee belt. Rainfall was also lower in November. The rains were late in coming and irreversible damage is feared for the next harvest. Last week's rains were also below normal. Next week, heavy rains are expected in Minas Gerais.
ICE US CERTIFIED COFFEE STOCKS
Coffee stocks are up to 1.294 million 60 Kg bags, compared to 1.245 last week. ICE US stocks of Arabica coffee are below the five-year average. The low stocks may provide some support to the coffee price on futures contracts.
THE DOLLAR
The DXY index representing the Dollar against a range of foreign currencies closed last week down to 90.701, and the trend is still bearish. The DXY after breaking the 92 resistance, plunged last week and is on its way to the 90. The Euro rose as high as 1.2175 on Friday after very disappointing U.S. employment figures. As a backdrop, Powell said the priority remains to support the economy, and Democrats and Republicans are working together on a $908 billion emergency support proposal as a first step. For later, once the Joe biden administration is in place, work for a more substantial plan. Forex traders are anticipating an increase in the money supply.
Last week, the Brazilian Real closed sharply higher at 0.1935. The Dollar weakened against most currencies and the Brazilian Real took advantage of this in recent weeks, breaking the bearish vanal it was in. If the Dollar's downtrend remains unchanged, the Real will surely test the 0.20 it has not reached since June. The BRL/USD pair is positively correlated with coffee futures prices. A low Real increases the competitiveness of Brazilian producers and encourages them to export.
COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS
The weekly COT (Commitments of Traders) report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows all the positions opened by all market participants. The COT report is published on Friday, and reflects the open positions on Tuesday of the same week. It shows the position of commercial traders (producers, commodity buyers, ...) but also non-commercial (speculators).
The net positions of speculators on the futures markets are particularly interesting to observe.
The speculative net position on the coffee futures markets is up this week to 32.265 K instead of 30.616 K.
Coffee - SHORT - MEDIUM - LONG TERM BUY SIGNALS - LONGCOFFEE is starting to approach the Kondratieff cycle.
3 TARGETS for different time frames:
1) CUP&HANDLE - SHORT TERM --> TARGET 1: 142
2) REVERSE H&S - MEDIUM TERM --> TARGET 2: 182
3 REVERSE H6S - LONG TERM --> TARGET 3: 283
Coffee market review 12/02/2020.Support us by consulting our free daily magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF ARABICA COFFEE
Yesterday, ICE US coffee futures closed down sharply - 3.93% to 118.45 ct/lb.
In 3 days, Arabica coffee almost erases Friday's 6% rise. According to the latest reports, the passage of Hurricane Iota did not cause much damage to the coffee crop, with at most small delays. Fears that the crop in Central America will be affected are now over. Countries such as Honduras and Guatemala are important producers of Arabica coffee with 5.6 and 3.4 million bags of production respectively.
Despite the extensive destruction in the northern islands of Colombia, the country has not suffered any production losses either. Colombia is the 2nd largest producer of Arabica coffee in the world with approximately 14 million bags.
The price of Arabica coffee had also benefited recently from concerns about the supply of Robusta coffee. Vietnam, the largest producer of this type of coffee, experienced very heavy rains after the passage of several typhoons, leading to fears of a smaller harvest. The worst of the storms have now passed, and the USDA's forecast increase in Indonesian Robusta production should offset the reduction in Vietnamese supply.
In Brazil, the forecast for the next crop is still down due to the effects of drought. Rainfall in the Brazilian coffee belt this summer and also in October and November has been below normal. Brazil is the world's largest producer of Arabica coffee.
As Arabica coffee trees are on a biannual cycle of small and large harvests, the next crop will be smaller anyway.
Internationally, the prospect of Janet Yellen, former FED president, serving as Secretary of the Treasury in Joe Biden's future administration, and the hope of a vaccine is fuelling markets. Many countries are preparing vaccination campaigns. England is the first country to license Pfizer's vaccine, and the vaccination campaign will begin next week. Investors are also anticipating a massive stimulus package, with increased government spending, which is weakening the dollar. On Tuesday, the DXY fell back below 92, after Steven Mnuchin and Jerome Powell assured that the priority remains supporting the economy. The dollar's slide was further exacerbated by the joint Democratic and Republican proposal for an emergency support package of $908 billion. The dollar is still low and in a bearish trend, the DXY closed at 91.190.
While waiting for a vaccine, the pandemic continues unabated, with more than 64 million cases worldwide and more than 1.483 million deaths. The United States is the most affected country with more than 270,000 deaths and more than 13.7 million cases.
WEATHER IN BRAZIL
90% of Brazilian coffee is grown in 4 regions: Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo, Sao Paulo and Parana.
The rainy season has started and lasts until April-May. Rainfall was below normal in October in the Brazilian coffee belt. Rainfall was also lower in November. The rains were late in coming and irreversible damage is feared for the next harvest. Last week's rains were again below normal, which partly explains the more than 6% increase in Arabica coffee prices on Friday. According to forecasts, next week there will be a 70% chance and more of receiving rainfall above 50 mm.
ICE US CERTIFIED COFFEE STOCKS
Coffee stocks are up to 1.260 million 60 Kg bags, up from 1.244 yesterday. ICE US stocks of Arabica coffee are below the five-year average. The low stocks may provide some support to the coffee price on futures contracts.
THE DOLLAR
The DXY index representing the Dollar against a basket of foreign currencies closed last week down to 91.190, and the trend is still bearish. The DXY Index representing the USD against a basket of foreign currencies closed yesterday at 91.190, and the trend is still bearish. On Tuesday, the DXY fell back below 92, after Steven Mnuchin and Jerome Powell said the priority remains to support the economy. The fall of the dollar was accentuated with the joint proposal of the Democrats and Republicans for an emergency support proposal of $908 billion. Forex traders anticipate an increase in the money supply.
Yesterday, the Brazilian Real closed higher at 0.1910. The Brazilian Real has benefited in recent weeks from the weak Dollar, but the underlying trend of the Real is still bearish and historically low. The BRL/USD pair is positively correlated with coffee futures prices. A weak Real increases the competitiveness of Brazilian producers, and encourages them to export.
