ICF1! trade ideas
MY FIRST CONTRIBUTIONIT SEEMS TO ME COFFEE COULD HAVE A SMALL RISE, EVEN THOUGH IT WILL PROBABLY LOWER TO GET MORE STRENGTH UP.
Weekly coffee market review 11/23/2020.Support us by consulting our free daily magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF ARABICA COFFEE
Last week, ICE US coffee futures closed higher at 118.05 ct/lb.
Hopes for a vaccine are fuelling the markets, and Pfizer and Moderna have announced very encouraging results. Many countries, such as the United States, Germany, Spain, and others, are already preparing vaccination campaigns. The pandemic continues unabated, with more than 58 million cases worldwide and more than 1.382 million deaths. The United States is the most affected country with more than 256,000 deaths and more than 12 million cases.
The hope of a vaccine, as well as the prospects of a massive stimulus package, is driving the markets. The dollar is still low and in a downward trend, the DXY closes at 92.392.
The end of the year marks the arrival of production from Central American countries. Last week, the powerful Hurricane Iota hit Central America and Honduras, an important coffee producing region. Colombian production is expected to remain stable at 14.1 million bags, thanks to the replanting of rust resistant coffee trees. 83% of Colombia's total area would have been renewed with these varieties.
The price of Arabica coffee is also benefiting from concerns about the supply of Robusta coffee. Vietnam, the largest producer of this type of coffee, is encountering very heavy rains following the passage of several typhoons, causing fears of a smaller harvest and smaller bean sizes.
In Brazil, forecasts for the next harvest are still down due to the effects of the drought this summer, particularly in Minas Gerais. Rainfall in the Brazilian coffee belt in October was below normal, and also in November after 3 weeks. In addition, Arabica coffee trees are on a biannual cycle of small and large harvests, so the next crop will be smaller anyway.
According to the International Coffee Organization, world coffee exports in 2019/20 fell by 4.9% to 126.9 million bags. Production in 2019/20 is estimated at 168.84 million bags, down 2.5%, and consumption fell by 0.9% to 167.59 million bags. This would lead to a surplus of 1.24 million bags.
WEATHER IN BRAZIL
90% of Brazilian coffee is grown in 4 regions: Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo, Sao Paulo and Parana.
Rainfall was below normal in October in the Brazilian coffee belt. The rains were late in coming and irreversible damage is feared for the next harvest. The rainy season has now begun. Last week the rains were below normal. It fell about 50 mm. After 3 weeks, the rainfall over the month of November is still below normal. According to the forecast, next week the rains will also be below normal, with only 20-30% chance of rainfall above 50 mm.
ICE US CERTIFIED COFFEE STOCKS
Coffee stocks are up to 1.236 million bags of 60 Kg, compared to 1.198 the previous week. ICE US stocks of Arabica coffee are below the five-year average. The low stocks may provide some support to the coffee price on futures contracts.
THE DOLLAR
The DXY index representing the Dollar against a range of foreign currencies closed last week down to 92.392, and the trend is still bearish. Joe Biden, who will be invested on January 20, spoke of a $3 trillion support plan. Forex traders are anticipating an increase in the money supply. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has called on the FED to return unused funds from emergency aid programs for the coronavirus crisis. The FED has decided to do so, although it considers this decision premature. Last week, this did not cause much movement in the currency market, which remained relatively calm.
The previous week, the Brazilian Real closed higher at 0.1855. The fall of the Dollar benefits the Real. The BRL/USD pair is positively correlated with coffee futures prices. A weak Real increases the competitiveness of Brazilian producers and encourages them to export.
COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS
The weekly COT (Commitments of Traders) report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows all the positions opened by all market participants. The COT report is published on Friday, and reflects the open positions on Tuesday of the same week. It shows the position of commercial traders (producers, commodity buyers, ...) but also non-commercial (speculators).
The net positions of speculators on the futures markets are particularly interesting to observe.
The speculative net position on the coffee futures markets is down this week to 24.006 K instead of 28.021 K.
Target to enter a long position in Coffee With La Nina still rocking Brazil Long Coffee could have big potential, previously posted about buying the 3y support just below 100, that did not happen low was 102 and we since that low had a $20 rally.
My entry target is 50% Fib which also match 60 Day MA.
COFFEE: a correction is looming. Short then buy or wait for longIn recent years, the price of coffee has fluctuated between 90/100 and 130/140. It's a nice oscillator. Currently we're in uptrend. After the initial impulse price slows down and is approaching 122 level where correction usually occurs. I expect drop to 115-116 then continuation to at least 130, maybe to 132 (strong resistance) or even 135 (AB=CD & top from the last Summer).
Using 1D and 4H charts, wait for a signal that the price is turning back. Ignore lower time frames. Good luck.
Remember: if you are opening long positions in commodities, check the terms of your broker. Sometimes, if you do not close your position before the maturity of the contract, you may have to buy the goods and pay for shipment. Short positions are always safe.
ABC BullishContinuous Contract March 2021
Possible stop below 102.10
Possible T2 150.7 to 163
Good luck
Just an observation
Weekly coffee market 11/16/2020.Support us by consulting our free daily magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF ARABICA COFFEE
Last week, ICE US coffee futures closed higher at 112.20 ct/lb.
Hopes for a vaccine are fuelling the markets, Moderna announced on Monday very encouraging results. The pandemic continues unabated, we have just surpassed 54 million cases worldwide, with more than 1.320 million deaths. Faced with the second wave, Europe has been confined. The United States is the most affected country with more than 246,000 deaths and more than 11 million cases, and is also taking restrictive measures such as in New Jersey and Michigan.
The end of the year marks the arrival of production from Central American countries, or Colombia, which adds downward pressure to the market.
Arabica coffee production in Colombia amounted to 1.159 million 60-kg bags, down 15% in October, compared to 2019.
In Brazil, forecasts for the next harvest are down due to the effects of drought this summer, particularly in Minas Gerais.
According to the International Coffee Organization, world coffee exports in 2019/20 fell by 4.9% to 126.9 million bags. Production in 2019/20 is estimated at 168.84 million bags, down 2.5%, and consumption is estimated to fall by 0.9% to 167.59 million bags. This would lead to a surplus of 1.24 million bags.
The price of Arabica coffee is also benefiting from concerns about the supply of Robusta coffee. Indeed, Vietnam, the largest producer of this type of coffee, is experiencing very heavy rainfall following the passage of several typhoons, which makes harvesting difficult and threatens to damage the crop.
WEATHER IN BRAZIL
90% of Brazilian coffee is grown in 4 regions: Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo, Sao Paulo and Parana.
Rainfall was below normal in October in the Brazilian coffee belt. The rains were late in coming and irreversible damage is feared for the next harvest. The rainy season has now begun. Last week the rains were below normal. It fell by 25 to 50 mm. According to the forecast, next week the rains will be in line with normal with a probability of more than 50 mm.
ICE US CERTIFIED COFFEE STOCKS
Coffee stocks are up to 1.198 million 60 kg bags, compared to 1.170 the previous week. ICE US stocks of Arabica coffee are below the five-year average. The low stocks may provide some support to the coffee price on futures contracts.
THE DOLLAR
The DXY index representing the Dollar against a basket of foreign currencies closed last week up to 92.755, after a sharp decline in early November. The U.S. elections will continue to bring volatility to the currency market. Joe Biden will be sworn in on January 20, the Senate remains Republican for now, but a second round will be held on January 5 in Georgia. There is still a lot of uncertainty about the size and date of the famous plan to support the American economy. The Fed has announced that it will increase its "firepower" if necessary. Forex traders therefore anticipate an increase in the money supply.
The pandemic is not weakening, Europe has reconfirmed itself in the face of the second wave, the United States is also taking new measures of restrictions in some states. The hope of a vaccine, with the announcement of Pfizer, calms the markets and prevents for the moment the dollar from playing its role as a safe haven. Caution is still called for, however, as many questions about vaccines remain unanswered. The dollar has a strong influence on the price of raw materials, and it will be very difficult to predict its evolution in the coming months.
Yesterday, the Brazilian Real closed lower at 0.1828. The Dollar's fall allowed the Brazilian Real to rebound. The BRL/USD pair is positively correlated with coffee futures prices. A weak Real increases the competitiveness of Brazilian producers, and encourages them to export.
I Recommend buying !ARABICA COFFEE will rise next days (weeks)
I Advais you to buy
Target 1 : 126.20 USD
Target 2 : 136.50 USD
Stoop Loss 116 usd
Weekly coffee market review 11/09/2020.Support us by consulting our free daily magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF ARABICA COFFEE
Last week, ICE US coffee futures closed higher at 106.95 ct/lb.
The pandemic continues unabated, we have just passed 50 million cases worldwide, with over 1.250 million deaths. Faced with the 2nd wave, Europe is confining itself or imposing curfews. The United States is the first country to exceed 100,000 new cases in one day. Joe Biden wants to set up a crisis unit. In Europe, many non-essential businesses are closed such as bars and restaurants.
Bars and restaurants are places of high coffee consumption, and their closure in Europe will weigh on demand.
The end of the year marks the arrival of production from Central American countries, or Colombia, which adds downward pressure to the market.
According to the International Coffee Organization, world coffee exports in 2019/20 fell by 4.9% to 126.9 million bags. Production in 2019/20 is estimated at 168.84 million bags, down 2.5%, and consumption fell by 0.9% to 167.59 million bags. This would lead to a surplus of 1.24 million bags.
In the United States, Joe Biden will be sworn in on January 20, 2021, the Senate remains Republican for the time being, but there will be a second round in Georgia on January 05. If the Democrats win both seats, that would bring the distribution to 50-50 seats, and Vice President Kamala Harris could constitutionally break the tie. In the absence of a majority in the Senate, voting on a plan to support the U.S. economy would be made more difficult. This leaves uncertainty as to the timing and amount of the plan. Last week the Fed reaffirmed its willingness to support the US economy and is ready to "increase its firepower" if necessary. The dollar fell sharply, with the DXY dropping from over 94 at the beginning of last week to close Friday at 92.236, a drop that benefited all dollar-denominated commodities.
WEATHER IN BRAZIL
90% of Brazilian coffee is grown in 4 regions: Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo, Sao Paulo and Parana.
Rainfall was below normal in October in the Brazilian coffee belt. The rains were late in coming and irreversible damage is feared for the next harvest. The rainy season has now begun. Last week the rains were below normal. Minas Gerais and Espirito Santo received 50 mm, while further south Sao Paulo and Parana were drier. According to the forecast, next week the rains will be in line with normal with a probability of rainfall above 50 mm.
ICE US CERTIFIED COFFEE STOCKS
Coffee stocks are up to 1.170 million 60 kg bags compared to 1.129 last week. ICE US stocks of Arabica coffee are below the five-year average. The low stocks may provide some support to the coffee price on futures contracts.
THE DOLLAR
The DXY index representing the Dollar against a basket of foreign currencies closed last week, down sharply at 92.236. The U.S. elections will continue to bring volatility to the currency market. Joe Biden will be sworn in January 20, the Senate remains Republican for now, but a second round will be needed in Georgia. Therefore, there is still a lot of uncertainty about the size and date of the famous plan to support the American economy.
Last week's statements by the FED certainly weighed heavily on the dollar. The FED announced that it could increase "its firepower" if necessary. Forex traders are therefore anticipating an increase in the money supply.
On Sunday, the United States experienced a record covid-19 for the 4th consecutive day, and even though the news was dominated by the elections, the pandemic could be remembered by investors if the US faces a 2nd wave similar to the one hitting Europe. A return of the dollar as a safe haven is not a possibility to be ignored. The dollar has a strong influence on the price of raw materials, and it will be very difficult to predict its evolution in the coming months.
A low dollar is generally favorable to the dollar-denominated commodity markets.
Last week, the Brazilian Real closed sharply higher at 0.1862, breaking Friday's 0.1750/0.1810 range in which it had been trading since the end of September. The fall of the Dollar allowed the Brazilian Real to rebound. The BRL/USD pair is positively correlated with coffee futures prices. A weak Real increases the competitiveness of Brazilian producers and encourages them to export.
COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS
The weekly COT (Commitments of Traders) report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows all the positions opened by all market participants. The COT report is published on Friday, and reflects the open positions on Tuesday of the same week. It shows the position of commercial traders (producers, commodity buyers, ...) but also non-commercial (speculators).
The net positions of speculators on the futures markets are particularly interesting to observe.
The speculative net position on the coffee futures markets is down this week to 28,021 K instead of 35,421 K.
fundamental news on coffeeread this:
fortune.com
www.iandmsmith.com
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
if a strong 'la nina' weather event will happen coffee can maybe cross some resistances at 170 and ~200. The prediction is likely that this weather phenomenon will happen! Together with the weak coming crop cycle 2021 we will see a under-supply for the coming years - even if at the moment we have an oversupply of 5 mln bags -because of good crop cycle 2020 and less consumption because of covid19). In my opinion i would be careful with shorting KC1.
ABC BullishContinuous contract 12/20
Entry over long level with a confirmed uptrend
Possible stop below 103
Possible T2 151.5 to 161
Not a recommendation
Weekly coffee market review 11/02/2020.Support us by consulting our free daily magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF ARABICA COFFEE
Last week, ICE US coffee futures closed lower at 104.35 ct/lb. The worsening health situation with a sharp increase in covid-19 cases in the USA and Europe has strongly impacted the markets last week. Due to the magnitude of the 2nd wave, Europe is reconfirming itself, this is the case of Ireland, Czech Republic, France, Germany, England, Portugal, Austria, and countries such as Spain or Italy and others are taking more and more drastic measures, such as curfews, closing bars and restaurants, or limiting people in meetings. The United States is seeing a record number of covid cases in the run-up to the election.
Bars and restaurants are places of high coffee consumption, and their closure in Europe will weigh on demand.
The International Coffee Organization (ICO) forecasts a surplus of 1.54 million bags for the 2019/20 season. The drought of the previous months will have an impact on the next harvest in Brazil even though the rains have now arrived.
The very low Real is benefiting Brazilian coffee exporters who are taking advantage of their increased competitiveness to flood the market. According to Reuters, 64% of Brazilian production has already been sold compared to the five-year average of 53%. The depreciation of the local currency increases producers' income from dollar-denominated products.
In the United States, the American election is scheduled for tomorrow, November 3, and tensions on the market are not excluded. Investors fear the possibility that Donald Trump may be declared a narrow loser and do not want to recognize the results, making the transition more complicated and delaying the vote on the long-awaited plan to support the US economy.
WEATHER IN BRAZIL
90% of Brazilian coffee is grown in 4 regions: Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo, Sao Paulo and Parana.
Rainfall was below normal in October in the Brazilian coffee belt. The rains were late in coming and irreversible damage is feared for the next harvest. The rainy season has now begun. Rainfall last week ranged from 50 to 100 mm.
ICE US CERTIFIED COFFEE STOCKS
Coffee stocks are up to 1.149 million bags of 60 Kg for 1.129 last week. ICE US stocks of Arabica coffee are below the five-year average. The low stocks may provide some support to the coffee price on futures contracts.
THE DOLLAR
The DXY index representing the Dollar against a basket of foreign currencies closed last week up to 93.882. The 2nd epidemic wave is scaring the market and the Dollar seems to be playing its role as a safe-haven currency. The chances of a quick agreement on a plan to support the U.S. economy are now nil. We will have to wait now for the election result, and this is beneficial to the Dollar in the short term.
On the FED side, things will certainly remain frozen until the outcome of the American election. The FED has insisted on the need for a quick vote of a support plan, and assures that the key rates will remain permanently low.
Last week, the Brazilian Real closed lower at 0.1726. The trend is still bearish. The rise of the Dollar, which plays its role as a safe haven, is weighing on the Brazilian Real. The BRL/USD pair is positively correlated with coffee futures prices. A weak Real increases the competitiveness of Brazilian producers and encourages them to export.
COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS
The weekly COT (Commitments of Traders) report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows all the positions opened by all market participants. The COT report is published on Friday, and reflects the open positions on Tuesday of the same week. It shows the position of commercial traders (producers, commodity buyers, ...) but also non-commercial (speculators).
The net positions of speculators on the futures markets are particularly interesting to observe.
The speculative net position on the coffee futures market is down this week to 35,421 K instead of 40,708 K.
COFFEE May Reverse! Here is Why:
coffee is extremely bearish since September.
we saw a sharp and strong decline during the last two month.
however, just recently the price has reached a major daily support level.
chances are high that we will see at least a pullback from that.
I am waiting for a 4H candle close above 107.1 level.
it is a horizontal neckline of an inverted h&s pattern.
after the breakout I will buy the market on retest.
goals:
110.65
113.0
(if neckline is respected and price drops below the head, setup will be invalid)
COFFEE REVERSE H&S PATTERN| TRADING PLAN|
COFFEE has reached a confluence of strong support lines, so I am looking for a long opportunity.
Now, we can see that there has been a breakout of the downwards channel resistance upwards
This breakout was also a breakout of the neckline of the reverse head and shoulders pattern.
Now, we are waiting for the 4h candle to close ABOVE the neckline and we are going long from the pullback.
Sl below the right shoulder high. Two take level are the two resistance levels that you can see on the chart.
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See you next time!
Weekly indicates further downside Bullish Coffee longer term "La Niña", target is still to buy the 100 level
MM long covered 2'502 contracts, now siting at 43'077
MM short added 4'723 contracts, now sitting at 23'339
RectangleA Rectangle is a continuation pattern that forms as a trading range during a pause in the trend. The pattern is easily identifiable by two comparable highs and two comparable lows. The highs and lows can be connected to form two parallel lines that make up the top and bottom of a rectangle.
Targets are listed for a brreak up from rectangle pattern with entry level at 136.3 with a clear uptrend
and a break down from rectangle at 97.25 in a clear downtrend
Mid Rectangle is possible stop either way it breaks
This can be a very long term pattern and some swing trade inside of the channel
Rectangles are sometimes referred to as trading ranges, consolidation zones or congestion areas.
Rectangles can extend for a few weeks or many months. If the pattern is less than 3 weeks, it is usually considered a flag, also a continuation pattern. Ideally, rectangles will develop over a 3-month period. Generally, the longer the pattern, the more significant the breakout. A 3-month pattern might be expected to fulfill its breakout projection. However, a 6-month pattern might be expected to exceed its breakout target.
The direction of the next significant move can only be determined after the breakout has occurred. As with the symmetrical triangle, rectangles are neutral patterns that are dependent on the direction of the future breakout. Volume patterns can sometimes offer clues, but there is no confirmation until an actual break above resistance or break below support.
Not a recommendation
I Recommend buying !COFFEE C Will Rise Next days
I Advais You To Buy Or keep it in the portfolio
target 124 USD
StoopLoSS 100 USD
COFFEE - Possible "coffee break" aheadCoffee is back around the price of the beginning of the month.
Since OCT 2 we have a shy uptrend forming for coffee’s standards, in the 4h time frame (TF).
The price went up from its lowest of the current month and $104.90 to $113.35 (+8.04%) on OCT 12 and $111.70 (+6.45%) today so far.
The trend on the Higher TFs is still bearish and technically this is where are now.
We have some indications suggesting that we might be in front of a total reversal for the price of Coffee.
There are:
1) Higher lows since OCT 2
2) at the 4h TF since OCT 9 from the 10 bars 8 of them are above the 50MA
3) we had two major tests (and rejections) for price to break above two week resistance
4) we expect the price to reach at some point soon the monthly Fib 0.382 level
Against the above are the latest data from the COT report of OCT 6 where hedge funds closed 3.207 positions and opened 4.219 bringing the Net Long positions to 47.505 from 54.931 the previous week. Of course we still don’t know what their positions are for the current week.
So what we make out of all this.
To put it in simple terms with what I know so far the longer the price remains above the 50MA the more the chances of it breaking the $112 and move towards the Fib 0.382. The “Decision lvl” is where the two weeks resistance meets the blue trendline. Break it and we buy.
If on the other hand price breaks below the green trend line and the 20MA then we might be looking for more to the down.
Good luck traders
Note: I'm no trading expert nor have the ambition to become one! The above is just an idea that I share with the intention of attracting comments and perhaps become a better trader.
COFFEE FUTURE : POTENTIALLY SOMETHING BIG TO COMEENGLISH
- Prices have been evolving below a bearish trendline, registering lower highs but no significant new market bottoms since May 2011. The long-term trend is then neutral.
- However, even though prices have still been consolidating laterally over the last year, they also managed to clear their bearish trendline by successfully rebounding multiple times over the 87.00/103.75 zone, registering what looks like a reversal rounding bottom pattern . In addition, volumes have been on the rise during all the testing phase of the support zone while the DMI shows an increasing bullish pressure inside a more and more directional movement.
- It is still hard to talk about a strong bullish reversal here as the market hasn’t registered any new highs. However, this year’s bullish breakout tells us the bearish trend is now over while positive signs on technical indicators (transaction volumes and DMI) demonstrate buyers ‘interest for the asset. It seems the slow dance around the strong psychological and technical level of 100.00 has been an opportunity for bull traders to try to regain control of the market. In this configuration, the bullish scenario remains the most likely but a market close below the 103.75/95.00 zone would invalidate or, at least, delay the bullish potential towards 140.00, 172.00, 198.00 and 224.00 by extension.
NB : Coffee has been overperforming the Bloomberg Commodity Index since October 2019
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
FRENCH
- Les prix ont évolué sous une ligne de tendance baissière, enregistrant des sommets de plus en plus bas mais aucun nouveau creux de marché significatif depuis mai 2011. La tendance long-terme est donc neutre.
- Cependant, même si les prix ont consolidé latéralement au cours des dernières années, ils ont également réussi à s’affranchir de leur ligne de tendance baissière de long-terme en rebondissant à de multiples reprises au-dessus de la zone 87.00/103.75, en s’inscrivant dans ce qui semble être une figure haussière de creux en soucoupe. De plus, les volumes ont été en hausse durant toute la phase de test de la zone support alors que le DMI affiche une pression acheteuse grandissante au sein d’un mouvement de plus en plus directionnel.
- Il est toujours compliqué de parler d’un fort renversement à la hausse alors que le marché n’a toujours pas effectué de plus haut significatif. Cependant, le franchissement technique de cette année nous confirme que la tendance baissière de long-terme est désormais terminée alors que les signes positifs rapportés par les indicateurs techniques (volumes de transaction et DMI) nous démontrent un regain d’intérêt des acheteurs pour l’actif. Il semblerait que la lente dance des prix autour du niveaux technique et psychologique fort des 100.00 a été une opportunité pour les acheteurs de tenter de reprendre le contrôle du marché. Dans cette configuration, le scénario haussier reste le plus probable mais toute clôture de marché en-dessous de la zone 103.75/95.00 invaliderait ou, du moins, diffèrerait le potentiel haussier vers 140.00, 172.00, 198.00 puis 224.00 par extension.
NB : le café superforme l’indice Bloomberg des matières premières depuis Octobre 2019.
