S&P moving lower for me We on our way towards 5300/5400 area on this move. The top maybe in for now be vigilant
ISP1! trade ideas
Rising bond yields hurting the S&P 500 indexThe rising bond yields is one of the top reasons why the S&P 500 index has pulled back in the past few months. Data shows that the 30-year yield surged to 5% for the first time since 2022. The 5-year and 10-year yields have also continued rising in the past few months.
These yields rose after the US published strong nonfarm payrollsdata on Friday. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the economy added over 264k jobs data, higher than the median estimate of 112k. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, the lowest level in three months.
Therefore, these numbers confirmed the Federal Reserve’s view that the labor market was doing well. Officials are now focusing on the steady inflation and have hinted that the bank will only deliver two cuts this year.
Last year, we wrote about the bond vigilantes and warned that they may impact the stock market. These vigilantes are investors who typically push bond yields significantly higher when government spending is rising.
$NQ & ES BearishThe NQ and ES on the monthly chart showed signs of rejection, indicating a possible correction toward a PDA located in the discounted region of this timeframe. Consequently, on the daily chart, there was a shift in the price delivery state, now seeking this liquidity as well as the daily sell sides. We maintain a bearish outlook for the assets, but it is important to note that the price may correct toward the premium region of the daily chart, seeking new liquidity to build momentum and ultimately reach the monthly chart objective: a more pronounced drop.
January 11 2025 - long wing 2RRSetup was good lacking premium discount
Aggressive entry only
Entered breaker with FVG
SPX under pressure after Bdown. Secular uptrend still valid.SP:SPX NYSE:ES has broken down a relative support. Potential further lower prices ahead. SPX Adv-Decl made new low.
Extreme bearishness might be good buying points.
Combined US Equities - Critical Support Line BROKEN DOWNJust yesterday, the line was drawn and by the close of the day/week, it was done... the line broke with a close below.
So, zooming out into the weekly charts, and we see the TD Sequential starts for a Buy Setup (means bullish till end of Setup). Projecting a simple waterfall scenario brings US equities down to target at the TDST, and meeting a confluence of several support levels.
Noted MACD crossed down as is RoVD tapering down too.
This is the simplest straight line outcome.
Alternatively, might see a weak bounce for a lower high on the weekly charts and then the cliff fall in mid- to end-February.
Just need to know, then decide what to do.
On a seperate note.
The First 5 days of the trading week of January is part of the January Barometer where how January closes is how the year goes. and this ended DOWN.
Now, if January is ending DOWN as well, then you decide how 2025 is ending most likely.
Already obvious 2025 is challenging till September.
Watch for it and be wary.
All the best!
trade gone bad 1/10/25 messold at the red line thinking it was in a pretty clear downtrend. where did i go wrong?
OverreactionThe movement in the S&P 500 on Friday has the markings of a market overreaction to the fundamentals that came out on Friday. The economy and the labor market is healthy which means the Fed may not be in a hurry to lower the fed funds rate. The expectation for Monday is a smaller range day inside of Friday's price range.
SP500 - detailed wave countReports indicate President-elect Donald Trump may declare a national economic emergency to enact controversial tariff policies under the International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA). Despite criticisms, Trump remains committed to his proposed economic measures.
Yahoo Finance reporter Alexandra Canal examines how the US dollar (DX=F, DX-Y.NYB) might respond to Trump's tariff plans and overall economic agenda, inversely causing a reaction in S&P 500 (^GSPC) earnings growth.
SP500: Watch This Key Support LevelStrong US jobs data was released today at 14:30 CET, showing 256K new jobs versus the expected 164K, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. This stronger-than-expected data could lead to more risk-off sentiment, as 97% of speculators now believe the Fed will hold rates steady at its next meeting. As a result, with stocks pulling back and the USD strengthening, even cryptocurrencies could face more weakness.
Remember, Powell delivered a hawkish cut back in December, when they noted that there can be less cuts in 2025 due to strong economic projections for 2025 which can bring infaltion back up so they must be carefull with rate decision. And this data today is reason why FED may stay on old, rahter than cut and why then stocks can resume even low, which have been in corrective territory since the last Fed meeting in December.The key focus now is identifying the next major support level for stocks. I believe that once stocks turn back to the upside, it could open opportunities across other assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Looking at the S&P 500 futures contract, there has been a slow but steady recovery since early November, following Trump’s win in the US elections. However, the market may attempt to liquidate latecomers who joined the stock rally after Trump’s victory. The 5,700 level on the SP500 futures stands out as a critical support zone, acting as a “stop-loss” level for many positioned in the well-known “Trump trade.” If the price reaches this area, more liquidations could occur, potentially clearing the way for a stronger bounce. Markets rarely move straight up that will profit everyone; liquidations often happen on the way higher. There is no easy money.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the sharp drop from all-time highs looks like an incomplete correction. The current sideways movement likely forms wave B, suggesting that wave C could lead to more liquidations toward the 5,800 level, which I see as a very important support zone.If this is indeed is a triangle in wave B, keep in mind that moves out of triangles are final in the sequence, meaning any drop could be limited before the market turns higher. So, I still believe risk-on sentiment will return, but this may not happen until Trump officially returns to office and market positioning settles for 2025.
Regarding Bitcoin, I see the 85,000–87,000 area as a very interesting support zone, where more downside could be limited.
Grega
ES Morning update As mentioned 24 hours ago, this week has revolved around one key level in ES: 5928, which has been the primary trading pivot. It held again overnight but is showing signs of weakness—serving as the bull/bear line.
As of now:
• 5936, 5928 = supports
• Staying above keeps 5965, 5978, and 6004+ in play
• If 5928 fails, sell to 5918, then 5892
Market Outlook for Next Week (US):Key Catalysts to Watch:
Earnings Reports:
Major U.S. banks, including Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup, will release their Q4 2024 earnings next week. These reports will provide critical insights into the financial sector's health and could drive significant market movements.
Economic Data:
Updates on corporate profits and other macroeconomic indicators will be closely monitored. Recent data showed a decline in U.S. corporate profits (-0.4%), suggesting potential headwinds for business performance.
Federal Reserve Statements:
Investors will look for signals from the Fed on monetary policy, particularly regarding future rate hikes or pauses. Any comments related to inflation or labor market strength could sway market sentiment.
Outlook:
Given these catalysts, heightened volatility is expected. Markets may face headwinds if corporate earnings disappoint or if Fed commentary hints at continued hawkishness. However, stronger-than-expected earnings or dovish Fed signals could provide tailwinds for equities. Overall, next week’s direction will likely depend on a mix of earnings surprises and macroeconomic data outcomes.
Big day potential in the S&P 500Depending on the nonfarm payroll numbers a big day of could occur on Friday. These numbers may set the tone for future fed action.
SP500 - detailed wave countHow Trump's tariff, economic plans could shake the US dollar
Reports indicate President-elect Donald Trump may declare a national economic emergency to enact controversial tariff policies under the International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA). Despite criticisms, Trump remains committed to his proposed economic measures.
Yahoo Finance reporter Alexandra Canal examines how the US dollar (DX=F, DX-Y.NYB) might respond to Trump's tariff plans and overall economic agenda, inversely causing a reaction in S&P 500 (^GSPC) earnings growth.
To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Asking for a Trend here.
This post was written by Angel Smith
SP500 - Waves' Final Fantasy 15000S&P 500 looks increasingly vulnerable to a correction this year, according to Goldman Sachs
The stock market looks increasingly vulnerable to a sharp pullback, according to Goldman Sachs.
In a note, the bank highlighted three things that could challenge the bull case for stocks in 2025.
Strategists pointed to high valuations, market concentration, and the rapid increase in stock prices.
The Trump Pump and DumpMarkets across several asset classes have seen a large move to the upside, following the confirmation of Donald Trump winning the US presidential election. We have seen a massive volume injection sending stocks soaring within the 45 days following, with many companies gaining 50% and more on average in a short period of time.
At the moment, we have been trading in largely oversold territories, while declining in overall volume. Additionally, the notorious Santa clause rally was cut short, as market participants were hoping for a rally into the end of the year, which unfortunately ended with a sell off after the federal reserve rate cut in mid December.
Several stats do point to a negative quarter when we do not see a strong end to the previous year.
Although market crashes are influenced by a complex interplay of factors, often unpredictable and interdependent. Here are some plausible reasons why a market pullback could occur in January 2025:
Economic Data Disappointments: Unexpectedly high inflation, slowing economic growth, or poor employment reports could signal an economic downturn.
Federal Reserve Policy: A sudden or unexpected interest rate hike, or minimal rate cuts to stimulate the economy by the Federal Reserve might spook investors, leading to a sell-off.
Geopolitical Tensions: Escalation of conflicts or political instability in key regions could disrupt global supply chains or create uncertainty in markets.
Corporate Earnings Misses: Weak earnings reports from major corporations, especially tech giants, could shake investor confidence.
Debt Concerns: A significant default, either by a major corporation or a government, could create ripple effects across global markets.
Tech Sector Weakness: Overvalued tech companies could face corrections, dragging down indices where they hold significant weight.
Systemic Financial Risks: A failure of a major financial institution could undermine trust in the financial system.
End of Year Tax Selling or Portfolio Rebalancing: Excessive tax-loss harvesting or portfolio adjustments in late 2024 could lead to low liquidity and amplified volatility in January.
Global Health Crisis: Renewed concerns about pandemics or other health emergencies might impact investor sentiment and economic activity.
All in all, to visualize strength in the market I would like to see the SP500 trade above the 600 level on the SPY , or 6000 on Futures.
Until then, the risk of downside does seem very real to move into the gap formed by the market just below 5700 on the ES futures, which could be a critical turning point in the market.
Only time will tell..
ES Holiday Update Jan 9thMarket closed today with ES wrapping up at 9:30 AM. Yesterday 5928 level was the battle line. Reclaiming it triggered a squeeze to the 5965 target. We’re now coiled for a trend leg.
As of now:
• Supports: 5928, 5936 (held)
• Holding above keeps 5965, 5978, and 6004 in play
• If 5928 fails, look to go short
what, are we now bleeding into Trump's nomination?We still look okay, not bearish, but looks like more sideways
Trump pump incoming afterwards?
Be cautiousIf you're on the short side of the S&P 500 going into Thursday shortened session, be cautious we are approaching levels that we have found buyers consistently in the past. At the moment it doesn't seem we have bullish fundamentals supporting this market.
Combined US Equities - Critical Support Line drawnAs expected, not a good finish, not a great start.
Now, a potential trend change pattern might be forming. This pattern has a series of two of each Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL). With that criteria fulfilled (LL 926 and 925.75), the Critical Support Line can be drawn at 925.75.
A breach and breakdown to close below 925.75 is likely to send the US equities market reeling over and down the cliff. This is the trend change pattern that is very reliable.
Noted that the RoVD indicator has crossed below the zero line, bearish.
Watch the Critical Support Line, and the TDST lines now...
ES still in decision after drop before xmasBond Auction Demand Analysis
The recent 10-year Bond Auction showed weaker demand with a 0.2 tails basis point, indicating reduced investor interest compared to previous auctions. The high bid-to-cover ratio of 2.53 suggests challenges for the stock market rally as investors seek higher yields. A 30-year Bond Auction on January 9th will provide further insights into market trends.
Jobless Claims Report Impact
The Initial Jobless Claims report showed favorable results, which could support a steady move in the market, particularly in the CME_MINI:ESH2025 ES index. Traders are closely monitoring these developments as they assess the implications for interest rates and overall market performance.
Market Reaction and Expectations
During the first session of the US market, there was little decision-making movement, indicating a need for more information on market reactions. With a national holiday approaching and a 30-year Bond Auction scheduled, a quieter market is expected in the interim.
ES possible tight consolidation in Januaryon 4 hour chart ES looks like entering tightening triangle consolidation which can resolve either way but most likely continue bullish momentum.
