SPX Premarket Analysis for Friday | ICT Data | Sep 20Pre Market Analysis for Sep 20'th using Statistics and Data to drive a 70%+ historical accuracy with all analysis methods. Inner Circle Concepts Trader using Stats to analyze the stock market. Topics: - Yesterday's Results - Today's ProjectionsLong04:55by DIY_Trades221
ES Overnight Price aCtion Review 9-20-24Going over ES Price action overnight looking for clues the market is giving us to help us pick high probability trades. NO A+ setups NO trades today. Friday is Mental Capital Preservation Day. mostly doing charting/reviewing past week trades and grading them. we dont get 2 confirming signals we wont be trading today.03:08by BobbyS8130
Buyers returnedBuyers returned in the S&P 500 on Thursday. The challenge is can these buyers continue this momentum up providing a positive close in the S&P 500. The ideal close would be above 5620 going into the weekend.01:12by DanGramza3
Average Range Levels Long1/3 ADR+ & 1/3AWR+ was my entry and target was 5ADR! This is really great long model you will find success with.by Keclikk1
Full ES/SPX trading plan for Sept 20thPlan For Friday: • Supports: 5775, 5769, 5765 (major), 5758, 5754 (major), 5746, 5737-40 (major), 5730, 5721 (major), 5715, 5711 (major), 5702 (major), 5690, 5685 (major), 5680, 5675 (major), 5666, 5659, 5646 (major). • Levels i would bid Direct: • I’m still trailing my 10% long runner from 5685, which is now up over 100 points from 24 hours ago, following a 322-point rally from last week’s lows. Bulls remain in full control, with no signs of losing key support levels yet. • However, this is my least favorite market configuration to trade. After such a significant rally, setups become scarce, and both longs and shorts carry elevated risks (rug pull for longs, and trying to short strong uptrends is equally risky). • Tomorrow, 5765 is the first key level. It was tested multiple times today and is no longer fresh, but it could still offer a bid opportunity if the reaction is favorable. If the price is knifing down, wait for 5754 and a potential recovery. • Any significant drop will likely see multiple supports lost, so be cautious with longs under key levels like 5763. Watch for a pullback to 5738-40, and if we pop above 42-43, this might offer a setup for longs. • In a quick selloff, 5711 or 5702 could present knife catch opportunities, especially if volume supports the recovery at those levels. Without strong buying volume, expect fakeouts at these major supports. • Resistances: 5782 (major), 5796, 5803-05 (major), 5813, 5824 (major), 5836, 5842 (major), 5850 (major), 5856, 5862-65 (major), 5872, 5880, 5887, 5897, 5906, 5915-20 (major), 5931, 5937 (major). • I don’t short strength in ES, especially in such strong uptrends. If you’re looking to fade strength, 5803-05 or 5850 could offer potential reactions, but it’s a high-risk strategy. • Bull Case for Tomorrow: • In the short term, bulls need to defend 5765. A consolidation or flag pattern between 5765 and 5796 could unfold, allowing ES to target 5805, 5825, and eventually 5862-65. • After such a large rally, it’s crucial that ES holds 5711 or 5702 on any pullbacks. Below 5702, we could see a move back to 5675. • Volume will be key—continued upside needs increasing buying volume to support further moves, especially through major resistances like 5805 and 5850. • Bear Case for Tomorrow: • The bear case starts if 5765 fails. This could trigger a short-term dip, but breakdown trades are inherently risky with low win rates. • I’d need to see ES first test 5763 and or put in a failed breakdown to the 5754 level first. After this plays out, one could place a short trigger below wherever the structure is. It should be slightly underneath any noise. It may be somethign like 5750 but could be higher. • As always, approach breakdown trades cautiously, especially without volume confirming the move. These setups are tricky and can easily trap traders. • Summary for Tomorrow: • Bulls are still in control, but this staggering rally could end anytime. Until 5765 is lost, I’m deferring to the trend, expecting a range between 5765 and 5796, with upside targets of 5805, 5825, and 5863-65. • If 5765 fails, we could see a backtest of previous breakout points from yesterday. Volume will be crucial—watch for volume increases at major levels to confirm further moves, or risk a rug pull if buying volume doesn’t support the trend. by ESMorg334
SP500 Futures Chart Now in Final Stages of 100 year RallyCycles are a normal part of life. The stock market is no different. In my long term analysis we appear to be headed up to an area that can complete a rally that started almost 100 years ago. For context, this long-term consolidation will be similar to Japan's Nikkei index in which made no new high's for 34 years. by maikisch3317
ES levels & targets sept 19thYesterday, 5680 acted as a cash machine. As mentioned in my plan for today, longs triggered at the 5680 hold on the classic failed breakdown of Tuesday’s low, with ATHs as the target—and now we’re up over 100 points. As of now: Secure profits and hold onto the runners. Looking at 5797 and 5805 as the next targets up for buyers, with 5759-63 as key support that must hold to keep this leg up in play. by ESMorg0
ES, SPX - Santa Rally could trigger Cup & Handle patternA strong end to Q4 Window dressing by fund managers who were underweight equities would trigger a cup handle pattern breaking the trendline of the pattern is around 4600 on the #ES I could also make an argument for HVF pattern we have a high 3 in place A recession will no doubt rear it's head at some point ... but a blow off top first to hand bears a beating is definitely a scenario I have shared before. by BallaJiUpdated 11
SPX Data Market Analysis | ICT | Sep 19Pre Market Analysis for Sep 19'th using Statistics and Data to drive a 70%+ historical accuracy with all analysis methods. Inner Circle Concepts Trader using Stats to analyze the stock market. Topics: - Yesterday's Results - Today's Projections06:36by DIY_Trades1
A placated marketThe S&P 500 is a placated market. In other words, this market received what it wanted and that was a 50 bps cut in interest rates. The next step will be a measure of the commitment of buyers who are holding long positions. Are they comfortable doing so or are they going to start taking profits which means you and I would be seeing selling over the next couple days. My bias is still for move to the upside.02:13by DanGramza3
2024-09-18 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures comment : Look at the daily chart and then you can’t be anything but neutral after yesterday and today. Consecutive doji bars with huge tails above and minor tails below. I don’t care about the new ath on the cash index since I trade the chart in front of me and that’s where the ath was in July and due to contract switch it’s now at 5782 while today hit 5756. The high was high enough to qualify as a tripple top now and we can sell off or make a new one above 5800. The dominant feature is the bull wedge and we are kinda closer to the middle than to the top or bottom. I can see this going either way to be honest. Ask yourself this, has the market a reason to sell off right now after the big rate cut? Answer was no before and definitely no after the cut. Does not mean it can not happen anyway. current market cycle: trading range (bull wedge) key levels: 5660 - 5800 bull case: Bulls made another higher high and a higher low. Does not look that good for bulls to buy the close 5680 but it sure as hell does not look bearish. As long as support and resistance are holding, I lean bullish and scalp long. Market is still trading above the 4h 20ema and obviously the daily, so bulls remain in control. Obvious targets above are 5782 and then 5800. Invalidation is below 5665. bear case: Bears need a lower low below 5665 and that’s they only target for now. Until they can achieve that, they have no good arguments on their side. I do think market will spend some more time in this area before we see another breakout. If bears would get below 5665, their next target is the daily 20ema at 5640 and below that is the bull trend line around 5570. Invalidation is above 5810. short term: Neutral between 5665 - 5782. Big range but that’s today’s range where we wildly went up and down multiple times. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Buying 5690 and selling 5720 but you needed wide stops to trade this.by priceactiontds2
OHLC Statistical Mapping FOMCRinse & Repeat Bullish model: + Manipulation entry and I was targeting +Distributionby Keclikk1
ES Range Expectations after the FOMC & PresserTradingView keeps crashing when I try to record a video so we're going for a chart only update this time. Today we're again looking at ES e-mini futures for an expectation of the amount of range we could do on this FOMC data release. We take a look at both the upside and downside to get a view on where the boundaries of normality would be to aid us in framing intraday trades. The Average Daily Range on ES at the moment is about 75pts (the daily ATR is about the same since the futures don't tend to gap much). So far today we've done 27pts of range... about half of the average of 51pts for the first 4 hours of the day. Volumes are also low (about 60% of normal) as we'd expect going into an FOMC report at 420k vs the average of 682k. So, what to expect for the FOMC release? I tend to use 50pts above/below the Volume POC (which is dead on the 5700 level today) as my benchmark for larger news events like this and that is the first level above/below... so 5750 or 5650. But if we get carried away (and we could today) then a full ATR move of 75pts actually lines up nicely with previous support and resistance areas. We'll tune back in later to see how this plays out.by JeffBoccaccio0
Long trade (1min TF observation) Buyside trade Wed 18th Sept 24 12.14 pm LND to NY Session Entry 15min TF Entry 5692.25 Profit level 5707.25 (0.26%) Stop level 5690.25 (0.4%) RR 7.5Longby davidjulien369Updated 0
ES Trendline Support Before FOMCES has a shorter term uptrend that it has been riding lately. I think this single trendline can give us a lot of clues about what's to come after FOMC. I'll be watching this simply to see if it can hold above or breaks below. That should give us direction among other things such as longer term patterns and VX.by AdvancedPlays2
ES - Troublesome Price ActionCurrent conditions right now is not optimal for placing massive positions as there is a lot of chop on the short-term time frames. Once market conditions loosen up, a lot more trading opportunities will present itself. Awaiting for how the FED impacts ES, NQ & YM 11:26by LegendSince2
ES OverNight Price Action REview FOMC 9-Going over the price action Overnight prior to FOMC looking for clues as to what the market is telling us. risk down and only A+ Setups today. 01:38by BobbyS8130
ES/SPX levels & targets sept 18thIt’s all noise for ES until FOMC at 2pm. Monday's 5680-5702 bull flag played out as expected, giving us a rally to 5732 target yesterday, before pulling back to 5680, and holding. 5680-5702 is the chop zone. As of now: Bulls have control above 5680-85 (weak nos). If they hold, 5716, 5724, and 5759 are in play. If 5680 breaks, down to 5666 and 5638. by ESMorg2
SPX Data Market Analysis| ICT | Sep 18Pre Market Analysis for Sep 18'th using Statistics and Data to drive a 70%+ historical accuracy with all analysis methods. Inner Circle Concepts Trader using Stats to analyze the stock market. Topics: - Yesterday's Results - Today's Projections05:33by DIY_Trades0
The market is ready for the FedThe structure and the S&P 500 on Tuesday implies the market is ready for the Fed announcement. The expectation is a 25 bp cut. If this does happen it would also imply the continuation of an uptrend.01:29by DanGramza3
AMP Futures - News FlowIn this idea we will demonstrate how to access the News Flow feature with Tradingview.Editors' picksEducation05:08by AMP_Futures1115
[ES] S&P500 Short ScenarioOn this idea, I want to share the potentiality of a big down side move for the next weeks or months. Fundamentally I am not very optimistic and looking for a big crash of our economy. Regarding this, I try to enter into short position with very little risk and hold it for a long time. Here is my first entry I took today on the US Session with a TLB + Rejection. Great Trade !Shortby ArnoSG1
Why is Macro driving the markets ? The attached chart shows just how important macro analysis is on the financial markets, and just how much it can move prices. It is important to understand that the markets are nothing more than a huge game of anticipation, which is why macro analysis is so important. In particular, it is important to understand the phenomenon of pricing: the market incorporates all the information available to it into prices at a given moment. For example, if a new regulation is announced that will restrict the automotive sector in 2 years‘ time, the market will react immediately and shares will fall immediately, not in two years’ time, because the market will immediately take this information into account and pass it on. This is where macro analysis comes in: it is used to construct and understand the market narrative. What are the current issues and constraints, what element could act as a catalyst for a further rise, what element is likely to lead to a fall, what is the market sensitive to, where is the focus? It is by building this context that we can make the right trading decisions. Simply following a technical indicator will not be enough in the long term. An indicator doesn't give you any real anticipation, any understanding of the movement in front of you, or any rationalisation of the levels to exploit (you avoid certain Supports/Resistances, for example, depending on the macro flow, because you know that it is too likely that you will break through these levels). The whole market, all the assets, all the prices are simply a reflection of market expectations (pricing) on the outlook for the asset. You've probably already heard that the markets are out of touch with reality, that they're too expensive, that fund managers are 🌰 idiots who buy overpriced stocks (this analysis is often based on the price/earnings ratio). It's a misleading reading that doesn't look far enough ahead to provide a true understanding of the market... The market never buys the asset at time T, it buys the asset's perspectives! Let's take the GLT share at a given moment Taking into account its current price and earnings, it is trading at a P/E of 26, which may seem expensive. But if I look at the longer-term outlook : Over a 3-year horizon, if the company achieves the results it expects to do, the P/E will actually be 14.97, a much more acceptable and bearable figure than the 26.04 we saw earlier. That's what the market will pay! Not the share price at the moment, but its growth potential. The market is counting on these expectations. If they deteriorate, this will lead to sell-offs, and vice versa. And macro events drive the market because they can upset these expectations and market scenarios. Many market players are looking to invest in what will yield the highest returns. Once again, macro is the key to finding what will yield the highest returns. We know that certain companies/sectors react better to certain parts of the economic cycle, to a context of inflation, high growth, low growth, rising rates, an environment of long rates over an extended period, etc... So when the macro outlook changes, or is disrupted by recent data, market players will review their positioning and seek to allocate to new assets that are likely to benefit most from the current/forecasted contex & environment. What sectors are players pulling out of, what do they seem to be reallocating to? This is incredible information and a good barometer of the market's perception of its current macro environment and its appetite for risk. And unsurprisingly, these flows only come into play when new macro/economic data upsets, downgrades or improves the outlook for certain assets, upsetting market expectations. MANAGING means forecasting TRADING: means anticipating REACTING: means losing If you want to do what great traders, fund managers and trading desk operators do, macro-reading is essential to understand your trading environment and what the market will be sensitive to. Being a trader is not about reacting, because we need to limit surprises as much as possible through our macro reading, which is a prerequisite for anticipating and forecasting 😉Educationby Gold-Lion-Trading2