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ISP1! trade ideas

ESPrice tagged upper trend monday... I highlighted last 2 times price went this overbought and tagged uppertrend. The first tag was after the August sell off. We reached the uppertrend and chopped for 2 weeks before dumping The second tag was mid Sept, we again chopped for 2 weeks but afterwards we bounced off the 20sma and grinded up another 2% or 90 points. So here we are now the pullback has been miniscule compared to the run up so I'd say we are in a chop phase So we either a chopped towards the 20sma around 5900 and bounce or Money flow is starting to dip low on the hourly which leads me to believe we will reclaim the highs again this week Be honest with you, I don't see a 10% drop coming till after the elections or by some unforseen catalyst. NASDAQ:NVDA earnings next week will have more of an impact on the indexes than CPI and PPI combined 😆 So my analysis is , Overbought Not bearish Seasonality strong.. Market will look for any reason (News) to buy dip. Choppy (1% range) for another week
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ContraryTrader
8
Chart you should be interested atThis scenario I shared took time and multiple scenarios from EW In the end, this is the best scenario And in my opinion, you could see how the high-risk markets started to pump That usually happens in the 5th wave of the bigger markets like sp500 etc... You can call that liquidity sharing It happens in the 5th to create as much FOMO as possible + bring liquidity to the market I still hold most of my positions in crypto and some stocks . About the analysis I shared . The one notice is It could go more up than the targets The targets I used are W5=W1 If you use W5=0.618,0.78 of W3 You will get other possible targets I am not hiding a secret here Those are kinda basics in EW or Fibo trading but most people forget about it I am not saying get out of the market I will never say such a thing What I will say is get ready for the next opportunity Dont burn your profits
CME_MINI:ES1!
by rerezz
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 11.10 - 11.15.24Last Week : Last week market opened under 5792 - 72 Edge which meant weakness to start the week and gave us moves towards lower VAH but again we kept getting buying at and under Previous Distribution Balance low and inside Value. We knew to be careful and that holding over 730s meant there is no need for larger supply to sell out. 724 was also an important area on Daily TF as it was the bottom of Daily Edge which we broke out of after our roll gap in September, we tested it but there was no break or any continuation under it. We knew if market gets back over 790s that could bring back strength to push back in Previous Value which is what we got on Tuesday leading into Election Results. Election Globex gave a huge move which continued higher towards 930s - 770s ranges Edge, took it out, consolidated and rest of the week we got lower volume grind higher into a new range to finish the week with a failure over new Value. This Week : Not easy to trade ATHs especially if we get them every few weeks or months and of course this move could be viewed as strength to bring in more buying that can keep us in this range or even continue grinding higher BUT something to keep in mind as few things are lining up here. We have made an Edge to Edge push on Daily TF ( reaching big Edge areas more often than not provides reaction in opposite direction ) , we have extended away from Daily MAs with a strong impulse that gave us blow off the top sort of move over our Previous Highs consolidation, we have finished the week with a failed or sort of failed push over VAH since we didn't fully come back in and held over 920s , we didn't reach new ranges top. Now all this doesn't mean we can't hold and continue balancing/grinding higher towards that Edge top and over still BUT if all this buying over 930s was from all the late buyers/traders who sat on their hands during the election days, came in saw areas holding and were buying for continuation to make money off momentum then they were also probably unloading as it went higher and might not have plans to hold this up long term unless market continues in their favor. If market does not continue in their favor and we get back under VAH / 620s then we could see this thing start moving towards their cost basis, we have Poor Globex low holding one of them up around the Mean of the Range, if that gets taken we will look for continuation towards VAL which has another cost basis and a base below it which could give us covering/holds in that area BUT I would not trust those areas for a longer term position, if market cant keep holding over the Mean/VAL of this range then we could see it come all the way back into lower Edge and maybe even under our Previous Highs to signal a failed new ATH break out. Will this all happen in a week or will it be a slow process is for us to find out, we don't really have market moving data to start the week and if we don't get new buying to keep pushing us then we at least can look for this process to start and see how it goes. On the other side for this move to stick and to think higher prices from here we would want to see us hold over VAH or at least push back towards the Mean/Hold over and get back over VAH as we need to get over 640s and test the upper Edge with holds inside or right under the Edge after the test, until this happens I will lean more towards a move back inside Value towards VAL and potentially finding our top around here.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
3
S&P500: Bearish now? MaybeLast Friday I said we might see some retracement today. It didn't happen! But if price continues to go sideways until market closes, then we have a Daily bearish doji. This is a better reversal candlestick pattern. However, this just mean we should see some retracement. How much of it remains to be seen. Price needs to break below the 5990 area to see greater retracement. If it doesn't, then we should see more sideways action for the rest of the week. For now, I think price is going to chop around the range area.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by leslieyimsm
#202445 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500 e-mini futures : Bullish. Breakout was strong with follow through and I have a measured move target to 6400+ and a trend line that runs through 6200. Even if we get a pullback, the first one will most likely be bought and we retest 6050. What would the bears need to make this the ultimate bull trap? One giant bear bar that closes below 5850 could do it but how likely is that? It’s absolutely reasonable to not buy into this madness and wait for bears to come around. I would be surprised if we closed 2024 above 6000. Quote from last week: comment: Reasoning here is almost identical to dax and nasdaq. Selling was strong enough for a second leg and a measured move leads down to 5555, which is near the 50% retracement. I won’t repeat the same stuff here what I wrote for dax. comment : Same logic here as for dax. Bears failed to get below 5700 and on Tuesday market went the other direction. Wednesday was certainly a huge bull surprise and we went high enough that it opens even higher targets. The rally lost steam on Thursday/Friday, which could result in a pullback first. I draw the line for bulls around 5850, if we drop below, we might as well go 5800 followed by 5730. current market cycle: Bull trend key levels: 5850 - 6050 (above 6050, 6200 comes in play) bull case: With 6000 my bullish targets were met but this does not look like it’s reversing anytime soon. If bulls keep it above 5850, we are free to go up to 6100/6150. A measured move from last week up gives us 5300 and I even have a measured move target at 6500ish from the August rally but that is obviously very far fetched for now. Invalidation is below 5850. bear case: Bears have nothing as of now. The rally last week was strong enough to expect more upside and bears could not trade more than a bar below the 1h 20ema since Tuesday. The best they can hope for is that the bull trend line above us, holds and market does not go much above 6050. My bullish targets were met with 6000 but the market obviously broke strong enough above it. Bears have no decent reason to sell this right now. Invalidation is above 6100. outlook last week: short term: Neutral until we break below 5700. I favor some more sideways movement before the second leg down but it should stay below 5830. → Last Sunday we traded 5758 and now we are at 6025. Well, at least I was not bearish. short term: I want to join the bulls but need a pullback first or a strong momentum break above 6030. Zero bearish thoughts as of now. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13: Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess. current swing trade: None chart update: Removed bear lines, adjusted bull trend line and added bull channel
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
2
S&P 500 - weakening ahead of year end?So, a small pull back completed after the 6000 mark, but looking in a wider range, we can see the initial target (5750), after breaking the cup and handle, was passed and stretched for quite some time now. We are now in the mid of the thanksgiving rally, which will completed probably at the end of the upcoming. And to be honest, as i read it, and a i already mentions in the nq 100 analysis, the bulls are trying to understand what to do next, and we can see also with the actions on nvda, goog, etc. my read on this, there is going to be another attempt to push to the top, maybe it will create double top, and then profit taking steps. I think first target will be around the 5600, to close the gap over there, and depending on the its strength, i think it can go as low as 5200-5400. Stay safe
CME_MINI:ES1!
by aloni-ta
20241122 ESI anticipate more upside and reversal to the downside after. The +DOL is NWOG and possible bs raid. Reversal after HI news. With new LOW as -DOL. If PA showes more upside before HI news that will be a good sign for the later downside reversal. PA can go higher than it is anticipated at the moment. This upside move is to seduce the retail into the late longs, their stops will be raided on the move to the downside later. I anticipate that the post-election downside move is not finished and there is more downside to be delivered.
CME_MINI:ESZ2024
by Yoo_Cool