Q1 Recap and What’s AheadThe first quarter of 2025 saw significant price movements in many different asset classes. Traders saw equity indices broadly selling off with the ES contract falling near 10% from the highs while Gold continued to push higher to all time high levels. There are many factors contributing to the price movement, including a shift in the administration in the U.S., geopolitical tensions globally, and critical tariff announcements looming. There are also questions about the Fed environment and the strategy that will be implemented this year to begin cutting interest rates. Looking at the CME Fed Watch Tool today, it seems the market is pricing another rate pause for the May meeting and a near 60% chance of rate cuts coming in June.
There is a large slate of economic date coming out for the rest of the week that could add great volatility to this uncertain market, including:
Tariff Announcement
Initial Jobless Claims
Nonfarm Payroll
Unemployment Rate
Average Hourly Earnings
This morning, traders saw the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change come in higher than expected and the markets are having a mixed reaction. President Trump will be speaking at 3:00 P.M. Central Time to introduce the tariff plan and how it will be rolled out, adding a level of clarity for the market moving forward into Q2.
If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
*CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc.
**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
