A positive close going into the weekendThe expectation in the S&P 500 daily structure is a positive close on Friday as the market goes into the weekend.
ISP1! trade ideas
Bullish Price Delivery on MESIn this week's analysis of the ES futures contract, it still looks reasonable to expect bullish price action.
Given the price delivery over the past few weeks, it appears that large institutions are continuing to push the market higher — a strong signal to maintain a bullish bias!
Key levels I'm watching:
Bullish target: 5,590 (with potential for even higher moves)
Support zones:
First support around 5,497
Stronger support around 5,447 in a worst-case scenario
While it's important to recognize that we may be approaching a "high" within the larger downtrend, from a short-term perspective (this week), I expect these support levels to hold and for bullish momentum to continue.
Of course, as with all speculation, we’ll monitor closely and react accordingly — always studying price action one candlestick at a time!
SP 500 - Look Out Below!Downward possibilities for SP can be breathtaking. 1000 point drop possible. Cheap puts can score big.
Perhaps Friday's job report will be the trigger??
S&P futures ES1! .. or SPY parallel channels for this weekNot much to explain here...since so many these days can't last through even a half a paragraph....but, the two lines capture a decent amount of stuff and show the most recent action of today with the ping-pong whipsaw.
Does it hit the question mark or stay in the lower parallel...it all depends on how Amazon and Apple can 'Tim cook-their books' and show the world that raging credit defaults and stagnating US with tensions going to hell around the globe doesn't matter.
Would guess from Wed-Thursday that:
Microsoft dips early and then trends sideways before a slight tilt down....
Meta just rips cause I have no idea how they achieve anything except cooking so...
Qualcomm makes up a guidance that show modest 2nd half recovery after "The current tariff uncertainty is stabilized and the need for technology advancement outshines global tensions" or something to that affect.
Amazon and Apple are a repeat of what I said before....Amazon will say they had strong buying heading into the tariffs but they see a slight pull back in consumer willingness to spend. Their cloud-whatever will somehow deliver them through the earnings call with some like 2.37% beat or some crap- but they will probably use 3 words that some algo doesn't want to hear and their stock will initially pop and then retrace the pop and pullback the equivalent move but to the downside. And lastly, Apple....don't care for them and will just say this- "We see strong foreign demand for the iPhone abroad with a high interest from India now that manufacturing will be shifted to that market(minus the fact it is only for the US market...all foreign production will be in China still and the "made in India" will be a quasi fulfillment slight of hand). While we are wading through the uncertainty of China-US relations in regard to tariffs- we see a sustained interest in iPhone sales with an increase in Apple cloud/whatever they call it- services maybe- from foreigners". So.......Apple goes initially down on some like margin metric being a miss or like revenue being like .8% off...but then Cook squeaks a fat steamer on the intercom which allows for the short reversal to the upside, which will kinda die out by next Monday.
Or.....All the above get slammed and the puts go into the weekend happy. Check OptionCharts.io for the open interest for the 30th and may 1st...decent action on the put positions already hitting almost 3/4 million...also just be understanding that Wednesday may be window dressing day for monthly hedge fund/brokerage portfolio allocations...So if there are bad earnings they may dump stock to let their people know they aren't exposed as heavy...but if good earnings you may get a ripping short squeeze from them trying to load up their customers with the big 7...so be careful out there...
Play with the money you have...and not with the money you can't afford to lose....for margins make marginal gains and massive losses when things go wrong- just see the Japanese Pensions unloading treasuries...some benefit...many lose... :)
5 min view:
Addition of one more parallel on the 30 min:
and a 5 min view of the one above on this week's lines:
Understanding Moving Averages In TradingToday, we dive into a comprehensive guide on Moving Averages (MAs) — one of the most fundamental yet powerful tools in technical analysis. Whether you're a seasoned trader or just starting out, understanding how MAs work can help you better interpret market trends, identify potential entry and exit points, and smooth out price data for clearer decision-making.
In this article, we’ll break down the different types of moving averages, how they’re calculated, when to use them, and common strategies that incorporate them into successful trading plans.
1️⃣ 1. What are Moving Averages?
Moving averages (MAs) are statistical calculations used in technical analysis to smooth out price data and identify trends over a specific period. They help traders filter out short-term fluctuations and focus on the overall direction of an asset's price.
2️⃣ 2. Importance
Moving averages (MAs) play a crucial role in technical analysis by helping traders identify trends, reduce noise, and make informed trading decisions. Here’s why they are important:
Trend Identification: MAs help traders determine the overall direction of the market.
Dynamic Support & Resistance: Traders watch key MAs (e.g., 50-day and 200-day) to anticipate price reactions.
Trading Signals & Crossovers: Detects potential changes in trend direction.
Golden Cross (Bullish): When a short-term MA (e.g., 50-day) crosses above a long-term MA (e.g., 200-day), signaling a potential uptrend.
Death Cross (Bearish): When a short-term MA crosses below a long-term MA, indicating a possible downtrend.
Momentum Confirmation: A steeply rising MA suggests strong bullish momentum, while a declining MA signals bearish strength.
3️⃣ 3. Moving Averages Types
Simple Moving Average (SMA): Calculates the simple average of past prices.
Exponential Moving Average (EMA): Prioritizes recent prices for faster response.
Weighted Moving Average (WMA): Prioritizes recent prices for faster response.
Hull Moving Average (HMA): Smooths trends while reducing lag effectively.
Smoothed Moving Average (SMMA): Averages data with less sensitivity to noise.
Triangular Moving Average (TMA): Applies a double smoothing to price data.
Adaptive Moving Average (AMA): Adapts dynamically to changing market trends.
Kaufman Adaptive Moving Average (KAMA): Adjusts speed based on volatility and noise.
Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA): Uses dual EMAs to reduce lag in trends.
Triple Exponential Moving Average (TEMA): Enhances trend detection with triple EMAs.
Arnaud Legoux Moving Average (ALMA): Minimizes lag while improving price smoothness.
Variable Moving Average (VMA): Adjusts its value based on market conditions.
Volume-Weighted Moving Average (VWMA): Weights price data according to trading volume
Jurik Moving Average (JMA): A highly smooth and responsive MA that reduces lag and noise.
Fractal Adaptive Moving Average (FRAMA): Adapts to market fractal geometry, adjusting speed based on volatility.
Zero Lag Exponential Moving Average (ZLAMA): A variation of EMA that eliminates lag by compensating for past price movements.
4️⃣ 4. Calculations
Moving averages are fundamental tools in technical analysis, helping to smooth price data and highlight trends. However, not all moving averages are created equal—each type is calculated differently, affecting how it responds to market movement.
In this section, we’ll focus on the formulas behind a few of the most relevant and widely used types: the Simple Moving Average (SMA), Exponential Moving Average (EMA), and Weighted Moving Average (WMA).
a. Simple Moving Average (SMA)
The Simple Moving Average (SMA) calculates the average price of an asset over a specified period.
Lag: High (delayed response to price changes)
Best for: Identifying long-term trends and support/resistance
SMA = P1 + P2... + ... + Pn / n
Where:
P1 + P2... + ... + Pn: are the prices (usually closing prices) of the last n periods.
n: is the number of periods on average.
It gives an equal weight to all prices in the period.
ta.sma(close, length)
b. Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
The Weighted Moving Average (WMA) assigns higher weights to more recent prices, reducing lag and increasing responsiveness compared to SMA.
Lag: Lower than SMA but higher than EMA
Best for: Short-term trading strategies
EMA = (Pt × α) + EMAy × (1 − α)
Where:
Pt: Current price (usually the closing price)
EMAy: Previous period’s EMA
α (alpha): Smoothing factor = 2 / (n + 1)
n: Number of periods in the EMA
It gives more weight to recent prices, reducing the lag compared to SMA.
ema = ta.ema(close, length)
c. Weighted Moving Average (WMA)
The Weighted Moving Average (WMA) assigns higher weights to more recent prices, reducing lag and increasing responsiveness compared to SMA.
Lag: Lower than SMA but higher than EMA
Best for: Short-term trading strategies
WMA = (P1 × w1 + P2 × w2 + ... + Pn × wn) / (w1 + w2 + ... + wn)
Where:
P1...Pn: Prices (usually closing) over the last n periods
w1...wn: Weights assigned to each period (most recent gets the highest weight)
n: Number of periods
It reacts faster than SMA but smoother than EMA due to its linear weighting.
wma = ta.wma(close, length)
While there are many variations of moving averages available, the formulas covered here—SMA, EMA, and WMA—represent the most essential and commonly applied in both trading platforms and manual analysis.
Understanding how these are calculated gives deeper insight into their strengths, limitations, and the types of signals they provide.
5️⃣ 5. Choosing the Right MA
Choosing the Right Moving Average for Your Trading Style
Choosing the right moving average (MA) depends on your trading style, time horizon, and goals. Different types of MAs have varying levels of sensitivity to price movements, so the choice should align with your trading strategy.
Here’s how you can choose the best moving average based on your trading approach:
Short-Term Traders (Day Traders, Scalpers)
Exponential Moving Average (EMA): The EMA reacts faster to price changes, which is crucial for short-term traders who need to enter and exit positions quickly.
Simple Moving Average (SMA): While less sensitive than the EMA, shorter-term SMAs (like the 5 or 10-period) can still be useful for spotting very quick trend changes.
Hull Moving Average (HMA): Offers a good balance between smoothness and responsiveness, reducing lag while staying sensitive to price changes.
Medium-Term Traders (Swing Traders)
Simple Moving Average (SMA): Longer SMAs (like the 50-period or 100-period) are effective in identifying the general trend over a few days or weeks.
Exponential Moving Average (EMA): The 20-period or 50-period EMA can work well for medium-term traders, providing a smoother trend signal while still responding to changes.
Smoothed Moving Average (SMMA): The SMMA gives a smoother trend and reduces the noise, which is ideal for swing traders who look for stable trends over a couple of weeks.
Long-Term Traders (Position Traders, Investors)
Simple Moving Average (SMA): Longer SMAs like the 100-period or 200-period SMA are perfect for long-term traders and investors. These averages provide a clear indication of the long-term trend and act as reliable support and resistance levels.
Triangular Moving Average (TMA): TMA smooths out price movements even more and is useful for capturing long-term trends. It's slower, but highly effective for those trading in longer time frames.
Trend-Following Traders
Exponential Moving Average (EMA): As trend-following traders rely on capturing long trends, EMAs with longer periods (50, 100, 200) are a solid choice, providing smoother signals with less noise.
Hull Moving Average (HMA): The HMA reduces lag, making it a great choice for trend-following traders who want to react quickly to changes while staying in the trend.
6️⃣ 6. How To Use Moving Averages
Moving averages (MAs) are one of the most widely used tools in technical analysis due to their simplicity and effectiveness in identifying trends, smoothing price data, and signaling potential market reversals. They are used by traders to help spot entry and exit points, determine the direction of the market, and define dynamic support and resistance levels.
Here’s a deeper dive into how moving averages are used in trading:
Identifying Trends
Uptrend: When the price is consistently above the moving average, it indicates a bullish trend. The longer the period of the moving average, the smoother it becomes, showing the overall direction of the market.
Downtrend: Conversely, when the price is consistently below the moving average, it indicates a bearish trend.
Sideways/Consolidation Market: When the price hovers around the moving average without a clear direction, the market is often in a consolidation phase.
Support and Resistance Levels
Support Levels: When the price is above a moving average and then pulls back to touch it, the moving average often acts as a support level. Traders anticipate the price to bounce off the moving average and resume its uptrend.
Resistance Levels: When the price is below a moving average and then rallies back to it, the moving average often acts as a resistance level. This resistance can lead to a reversal or consolidation as the price struggles to break above the MA.
7️⃣ 7. Golden Cross & Death Cross
One of the most well-known signals involving moving averages is the crossover of short-term and long-term moving averages. These crossovers are used to signal potential trend changes and provide traders with entry and exit signals.
Golden Cross: Occurs when a short-term moving average crosses above a long-term moving average.
Death Cross: Occurs when a short-term moving average crosses below a long-term moving average.
Golden Cross
This is considered a bullish signal, indicating that an uptrend may be starting or strengthening.
When it happens: A common example of a Golden Cross is when the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average. The short-term trend is gaining strength and could signal the beginning of a sustained uptrend.
Why it works: The Golden Cross indicates that recent prices are moving higher and that momentum is accelerating. It suggests that buying pressure is overpowering selling pressure.
Death Cross
This is considered a bearish signal, indicating that a downtrend may be imminent or already in place.
When it happens: A typical example of a Death Cross is when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average, signaling that the short-term trend is weakening and a bearish shift may be in play.
Why it works: The Death Cross shows that short-term price movements are declining relative to longer-term trends, and it indicates increasing selling pressure.
8️⃣ 8. MA Strategies
Trend Following
The trend following strategy focuses on identifying and capitalizing on strong price movements in one direction.
Trend Identification: Moving averages are used to identify whether the market is trending up or down. The most common trend-following strategy is to buy when the price is above a key moving average and sell when it’s below.
Trend Confirmation: Once the trend is identified using MAs, traders can enter trades that align with the trend. The idea is to "ride the wave" of the trend as long as possible until there is evidence of a reversal or loss of momentum.
MA Crossover
Moving average crossovers are one of the most popular and widely used strategies in technical analysis. Crossovers occur when a short-term moving average crosses over a longer-term moving average, signaling potential trend changes.
Short-Term Crossovers: These are typically faster and more sensitive, which can help traders spot quicker market changes. Short-term crossovers tend to generate more signals, but they can also lead to more false signals in choppy or sideways markets. (9 EMA & 21 EMA Strategy)
Long-Term Crossovers: These are slower and less frequent but tend to produce more reliable trend signals. Long-term crossovers filter out market noise and provide a clearer view of the overall market direction. (The 50/200-Day Moving Average Strategy)
Mean Reversion
Mean reversion is based on the idea that prices tend to return to their average over time.
How to Identify Overextended Prices
Overbought and Oversold Conditions: When the price is significantly above or below a moving average, it may be overextended. In such cases, traders expect the price to revert to the moving average.
Using MAs as a Benchmark: Traders can use longer-term MAs, like the 50-day or 200-day moving averages, to identify overextended conditions. If the price moves significantly above or below the moving average, it is often seen as an opportunity for mean reversion trades.
Trading Moving Average Pullbacks
Pullbacks: A pullback is when the price moves against the prevailing trend, temporarily retracing toward the moving average before resuming its original trend.
Buying Pullbacks in Uptrends: In an uptrend, traders look to buy when the price pulls back to a moving average like the 50-day or 200-day MA, assuming the trend will continue.
Selling Pullbacks in Downtrends: In a downtrend, traders look for selling opportunities when the price temporarily rallies back to a moving average, anticipating a return to the downtrend.
9️⃣ 9. Key Takeaways
Moving Averages (MAs) smooth price data, helping identify trends, entry, and exit points.
Trend Following Strategies use MAs to align trades with the market’s direction (uptrend, downtrend).
Support & Resistance: MAs act as dynamic levels where prices may reverse or consolidate.
Crossovers:
- Golden Cross (50/200-day crossover) signals a bullish trend.
- Death Cross (50/200-day crossover) signals a bearish trend.
- Short-Term Crossovers (9/21 EMA) provide faster signals for active traders.
Mean Reversion Strategy: Prices often revert to their moving average after being overextended.
Pullback Trading: Enter trades when prices pull back to key MAs during trends.
Combining Indicators:
- RSI confirms MAs’ buy or sell signals.
- MACD crossover strengthens trend direction confirmation.
- Bollinger Bands help assess volatility, confirming price targets and trends.
Timeframe Selection: Short-term traders use quicker MAs (e.g., 9 EMA), while long-term traders prefer slower MAs (e.g., 200-day SMA).
Best MA Settings: For trend-following, use 50/200-day MAs; for short-term, use 9/21 EMAs.
Stay sharp, stay ahead, and let’s make those moves. Until next time, happy trading!
Tariffs, and Tumult: Wall Street Waits on Super WednesdayHello everyone, it’s April 30, 2025. The TVC:DJI just closed its sixth consecutive green session, with markets clinging to hope as rumors swirl of a first tariff deal—possibly with India—though nothing is confirmed. That tiny breadcrumb of optimism was enough to boost sentiment late in yesterday’s session, even if volatility is dipping below 25% and investor enthusiasm seems to be fading in lockstep.
U.S. macro data continues to paint a picture of “not great, but not terrible.” Consumer confidence and job openings (JOLTS) came in below expectations but not disastrously so, prompting markets to collectively shrug and declare everything “less worse than feared.” It’s a strategy now: ignore bad data as long as it isn’t apocalyptic.
As earnings roll in, companies are split between those who pretend the tariff storm is “manageable” (hello, NASDAQ:COKE ) and those flying blind through economic fog ( NYSE:UPS , Snap, and Super Micro—who might be losing a major client named Nvidia). The overall takeaway? Visibility is garbage, and most companies are bracing rather than building.
All eyes are now on today’s so-called Super Wednesday, packed with economic data (U.S. GDP, PCE, ADP jobs, Chicago PMI) and mega-earnings from NASDAQ:MSFT and NASDAQ:META . But as usual, expectations may outpace reality. Markets often dream of clarity and wake up to more noise.
Meanwhile, China flashed its first big red light: a manufacturing PMI of 49, signaling contraction—the lowest in two years. No shock, considering their ongoing trade war with the U.S., which seems to be giving the global economy the flu.
On the political front, Trump celebrated his 100 days in office with a campaign-style detour to Detroit, throwing shade at Fed Chair Jerome Powell while declaring the economy in perfect health (despite the worst market performance since Nixon’s early days). He promised tax cuts, again, while doubling down on trade threats. Powell, of course, is just trying to survive the week.
Oil briefly dipped under $60 as markets considered the broader implications of economic warfare, gold sits at $3,311, and Bitcoin hovers around $95,000—looking resilient despite the madness.
As for corporate earnings, Starbucks missed on sales due to weak U.S. demand, Pfizer beat on EPS but saw revenue fall, and Visa continues to rake in profits as Americans keep spending like inflation isn’t real. Novartis crushed it but got no love from the market because apparently, +22% net income just isn’t sexy enough.
In short: chaos remains king. Markets seem oddly calm on the surface, but under the hood, it’s still all about tariffs, Trump tweets, and the fantasy that maybe—just maybe—some clarity will come today. Don’t hold your breath.
Enjoy the ride, and see you tomorrow for more market mayhem.
Weekly Chart Shows Buyers Holding, But Resistance TightensMarket Overview:
Futures are hovering at a crucial zone. In this update, we analyze the evolving trend structure, dissect price action at Fib resistance, and highlight what levels matter most heading into the next session.
Bearish/Bullish Trend Analysis
Trend Condition:
Bullish Trends: 8
Bearish Trends: 6
Overview: The market is currently bullish, with 8 trend lines signaling upward momentum. However, the presence of 6 bearish trends shows that mixed conditions remain across different timeframes.
Price Action and Momentum Zones
Current Price and Change:
Currently, the S&P 500 Futures are at 5,520.25, down by 32.25 points or -0.58%.
Market Behavior:
The weekly chart shows consolidation just below major resistance, with sellers maintaining pressure near the 23.6% retracement zone. Price action remains choppy after several weeks of volatility.
Momentum Zones:
Price is stuck within a corrective zone between the 23.6% and 38.2% retracement levels. In this context, these zones act as countertrend resistance, and bulls need a clean breakout above 5,537 to shift sentiment more decisively.
Fib Retracement Levels
Current Position Relative to Levels:
The market is currently just below the 23.6% retracement level.
Key Fibonacci Levels:
23.6% → 5,537.68
38.2% → 5,148.66
50.0% → 4,834.25
61.8% → 4,519.84
Analysis:
A clear breakout above 5,537.68 would indicate a more meaningful recovery attempt. Failure here could send price back toward the 5,148 or 4,834 retracement levels if momentum fades.
Overall Market Interpretation
While the broader trend is still bullish on this timeframe, the failure to reclaim 5,537 suggests caution. Consolidation below major Fib levels implies that buyers are struggling to regain control. A breakout or breakdown from this range will set the next directional tone.
Summary
The S&P 500 Futures are showing mixed strength early in the week. The broader trend remains bullish overall, but the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level is acting as resistance. This level will likely determine whether consolidation continues or a stronger move higher begins.
S&P 500 – iSpark Catches Clean Breakout from 5330 to 5700📢 The iSpark Indicator caught a strong breakout on the S&P 500 Index (4H chart) around the 5330 level , which was followed by a sequence of bullish moves — now reaching the 5700 mark.
🔍 Currently, price is testing the 10 EMA at 5710 , which is acting as a short-term resistance . A clear break and sustained move above 5710 could trigger the next leg higher toward 5750–5775 .
🎯 Holding positions? Stay in with a stop-loss at 5600 to manage risk.
📉 Fundamental caution: As always, keep an eye on macro headlines — unexpected global turmoil or sharp trade commentary (e.g., tariffs) may influence momentum
💡 This entire setup was captured early using the iSpark Indicator , designed to detect high-conviction breakouts across timeframes.
📬 Premium users interested in testing the iSpark Indicator can DM me for a hands-on walkthrough.
#SP500 #ES1! #Breakout #iSpark #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingStrategy #EMA #TrendFollowing #SPX #TradingView #SNP500
AMP Futures - % (LTP) Calculation for Renko, Kagi, and PnF chartIn this idea we will demonstrate how to apply LTP calculation for Renko, Kagi, and Point & Figure chart types.
Earnings this week pushes Spy upSpy will see more upside this week with Meta earnings tomorrow after market close. Google was already a good tone setter of this week.
A confident close but...A confident close in the S&P 500 daily chart on Friday was an indicator that buyers are willing to hold positions through the weekend. But the next challenge will be to carry through of this momentum on Monday starting with the Asia session Sunday night 5 o'clock Chicago time. The upside objective for Monday would be 5750.
Why I Hesitate on Long Wick Candles (and How I Trade Through It)In today’s live trading review, I highlight one of the key challenges I face when trading the ES:
I don’t always feel confident executing during long wick days.
So how do I deal with that? Simple: reduce risk and stick to the framework.
Watch as I walk you through this session, break down the setup, and share how you can identify and study your own trading weaknesses — so you can grow stronger, one trade at a time.
#OneCandlestickAtATime #LiveTrading #ESFutures #TradingPsychology
ANALISI TECNICA MERCATI AMERICANIHappy Saturday to all traders! In this video we analyze the American market and see what we can expect in the coming weeks.
Recently, the markets have reacted positively to the statements of President Trump, who made it clear that he has no intention of removing Jerome Powell from the leadership of the Federal Reserve. This reassurance helped to allay concerns about the independence of the Fed, leading to a rally in the main indices: the Nasdaq gained 2.3%, the S&P 500 1.4% and the Dow Jones 1%. In addition, the administration has shown signs of openness towards reducing trade tariffs with China, fueling investor optimism. Despite the recent reassurances, uncertainties related to the Fed's monetary policy remain. Powell stressed that, although inflation is falling, there is no rush to proceed with further rate cuts, maintaining a cautious approach. Investors will therefore need to carefully monitor the upcoming macroeconomic data, especially those related to inflation and employment, which could influence the Fed's future decisions.
Next week promises to be decisive for the US stock markets. Although the recent statements by Trump and Powell have helped improve investor sentiment, the presence of technical resistance and uncertainty about the Fed's future policies suggest caution. An upward break of key levels could confirm the continuation of the positive trend, while signs of weakness could indicate the need for a consolidation phase.
Have a good weekend everyone and happy trading.
Thanks Ciao Mauro
I will mention my three rules that I constantly cultivate:
Patience, discipline and always have a plan.
April 25, 2025 - Trump’s Tango, Tech, and Insider DramaHello everyone, it’s April 25, 2025. We’re closing in on Trump’s 100-day mark back in the White House, and if there’s one word to sum up his impact on markets: chaos. With 137 executive orders signed already, he’s turned global markets into a high-stakes rollercoaster though this week saw signs of recovery, confidence remains fragile, and volatility is still running the show.
The main trigger? You guessed it: Trump and his tariff diplomacy. After weeks of U-turns, threats, and NYSE:TWTR meltdowns, he’s finally announced that talks with China have begun. That was enough to send the AMEX:SPY up 2%, pull the CME_MINI:NQ1! out of correction territory (+2.74%), and ignite a 5.63% jump in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, even though it’s still miles below its all-time high.
OANDA:XAUUSD is sitting at $3,332, BLACKBULL:WTI hovers around $63.21, and INDEX:BTCUSD has skyrocketed to $93,200. Not bad for a week that started in total disarray.
Now here’s where things get fishy: US indices started climbing before Trump’s announcement—classic “somebody knew something.” Insider trading? Just your average Thursday. And while Trump claims talks are underway, the Chinese side played coy, denying any ongoing negotiations. Either someone’s lying, or the talks are happening over dim sum in DC.
Beyond geopolitics, NASDAQ:GOOG crushed earnings expectations and added a juicy dividend and GETTEX:70B in buybacks, exploding 6% after-hours. Meanwhile, NASDAQ:INTC flopped—flat profits, poor outlook, and a CEO trying to turn cost-cutting into a growth story. The market wasn’t buying it: down 5.7% after-hours.
NYSE:NOW , though, is living its best life. Strong results, AI momentum, and federal contracts boosted shares 15%. Other names like NASDAQ:PEP , NYSE:PG , and NASDAQ:AAL warned on the future thanks to—you guessed it—political and economic uncertainty.
On the macro front, ECONOMICS:USIJC (US jobless claims) ticked higher, inflation seems to be cooling, and if next week’s PCE and employment data confirm the slowdown, the Fed might just blink and cut rates in May. Market hopes are pinned on Powell holding steady—unless, of course, Trump decides to live-tweet through it.
Futures are up 0.37% ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) this morning, signaling optimism—possibly misplaced—in Trump’s “friendly” overtures toward China. Let’s just say we’re one golf game away from another market tantrum.
Enjoy your weekend, stay alert, and cross your fingers for a quiet Sunday tweet-wise.
AMP Futures - Boost your analysis with TPO summary info.In this idea we will demonstrate how to add the new Summary info table for TPO charts using Tradingview.
Solid Q1 Earnings amid Tariff Turbulence Spike S&P500 VolatilityAs Q1 earnings roll in, Wall Street is digesting a rare divergence: strong fundamentals across much of corporate America paired with deepening investor anxiety. While companies are largely beating expectations, looming tariff shocks and tech sector fragility are suppressing sentiment—and returns.
Tactical positioning is crucial at times like this. This paper describes the outlook for the coming earnings season and posits options strategies that astute portfolio managers can deploy to generate solid yield with fixed downside.
Resilient Earnings Growth in the Current Season
The Q1 2025 earnings season is underway, and early results show resilient growth despite an unsettled backdrop. According to a Factset report , with about 12% of S&P 500 firms reporting so far, 71% have beaten earnings estimates and 61% have topped revenue forecasts.
Blended earnings are tracking about +7.2% year-over-year, on pace for a seventh-straight quarter of growth. However, only two sectors have seen improved earnings outlook since the quarter began (led by Financials), while most others have faced modest downgrades.
Forward guidance is also skewing cautious – roughly 59% of S&P companies issuing full-year EPS forecasts have guided below prior consensus, reflecting corporate wariness amid macro uncertainty.
Source: Factset as of 17/April
Financials Front-Load the Upside
The first wave of reports was dominated by major banks, which largely delivered strong profits and upside surprises. Volatile markets proved a boon to trading desks: JPMorgan’s equities trading revenue surged 48% to a record $3.8 billion, and Bank of America’s stock traders hauled in a record $2.2 billion as clients repositioned portfolios around tariff news.
Source: Factset as of 17/April
These tailwinds – along with still-solid net interest income – helped lenders like JPMorgan and Citigroup post double-digit profit growth (JPM’s Q1 earnings up 9% to $5.07/share; Citi’s up 21% to $1.96). FactSet notes that positive surprises from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and peers have boosted the Financials sector’s blended earnings growth rate to 6.1% (from 2.6% as of March 31), making it a key contributor to the S&P 500’s overall gains.
Even so, bank executives struck a wary tone. JPMorgan’s CEO Jamie Dimon cautioned that “considerable turbulence” from geopolitics and trade tensions is weighing on client sentiment. Wells Fargo likewise warned that U.S. tariffs could slow the economy and trimmed its full-year net interest income outlook to the low end of its range. Across Wall Street, management teams indicated they are shoring up reserves and bracing for potential credit headwinds if import levies drive up inflation or dent growth.
Tech Titans Under Scrutiny
Attention now turns to the yet-to-report mega-cap tech firms, which face a very different set of challenges. Stocks like Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet – collectively heavyweights in the index – have been battered by the escalating trade war, eroding some of their premium valuations.
Apple’s share price plunged over 20% in early April on fears that new tariffs could jack up the cost of an iPhone to nearly $2,300, underscoring these companies’ exposure to global supply chains.
The tech sector’s forward P/E remains about 23 (well above the market’s 19), leaving little room for error if earnings guidance disappoints. With Washington’s tariff barrage and retaliatory threats casting a long shadow, Big Tech finds itself on the front line of the global trade war, suddenly vulnerable on multiple fronts. Any cautious outlook from these giants – which account for an outsized share of S&P 500 profits – could heavily sway overall forward earnings sentiment.
Market Context and Reaction
Despite solid Q1 fundamentals, equity markets have been whipsawed by macro headlines. The S&P 500 slid into correction territory, falling roughly 10% since the start of April and about 14% below its February peak, as investors de-rated stocks in anticipation of tariff fallout and a potential economic slowdown. Consumer inflation expectations have skyrocketed with risk delaying rate cuts in the near-term.
This pullback has tempered valuations somewhat – the index’s forward P/E has eased to ~19 (down from ~20 at quarter-end) – even though consensus earnings estimate for 2025 have only inched down. Notably, the high-flying “Magnificent Seven” mega-cap stocks that led last year’s rally are all sharply lower year-to-date (Alphabet –20%, Tesla –40%), a stark reversal that has dented market breadth and sentiment.
Source: Factset as of 17/April
Investors are rewarding only the strong earnings winners: for instance, Bank of America’s stock jumped over 4% after its earnings beat, and JPMorgan rose 3% on its results. Such reactions imply the market is discriminating – strong execution is being acknowledged even as the broader mood remains cautious.
Source: Factset as of 17/April
Hypothetical Trade Setup
Solid corporate performance is offset by significant macro risks, warranting a nimble and selective approach. While recent positive earnings may provide a short-term boost, downbeat sentiment and concerns over future tech earnings could limit gains.
In this uncertain environment, investors may adopt a fundamentally driven view that the S&P 500 could rise in the near term due to strong earnings. However, the upside appears limited, supporting the case for a bullish call spread.
Earnings release dates for the Super 7
With major tech firms set to report earnings in early May, investors can consider the 2nd May MES Friday weekly options. A narrow bull call spread offers a higher probability of profitability. In this hypothetical setup, the long call is at 5,250 and the short call at 5,390, resulting in a breakeven point of 5,312 at expiry. This position requires net premium of USD 315/contract (USD 62.5/index point x 5). The position returns a max profit of USD 385/contract for all strikes > 5,390 and a max loss of USD 315/contract for all strikes < 5,250.
This strategy is most successful when the S&P 500 rises slowly. A simulation of this scenario using the CME QuikStrike Strategy Simulator has been provided below.
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme .
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ES Futures-ICT Concepts (Levels for 4/28-5/2)Levels to observe for next week April 28 through May 2, 2025
Based on ICT concepts, There has been a change in the states of delivery (CISD) and Fair value gap (FVG) that has formed on the daily time frame.
This, of course, is after price has delivered lower into a discount area.
Looking for by programs on Monday and Tuesday, given that it’s is NFP protocol.
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 04/25/2025MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 04/25/2025
📈 5530 5560
📉 5475 5445
Thanks to all my followers! Truly appreciate the support!
Please like and share for more NQ levels Tues & Thurs 🤓📈📉🎯💰
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
ES/SPY Market Prediction April - July 2025ES/SPY Bounced of the Previous 2022-23 highs
Looking for retracement to gap fill to downside
before continuing the move up.
This prediction is to play out in next 3-4 months
Prediction is assuming levels marked will hold/reject.
Disclaimer: This prediction is my opinion and not
intended to be taken as financial advice.
SP500 what to expect next?As a seasoned trader with over a decade of experience navigating the markets, I’ve been closely monitoring the S&P 500’s current price action. The index is presently confined within a well-defined range, with resistance at 5,528 and support at 5,146, based on recent price behavior. We’ve observed a notable deviation below the lower boundary of this range, which often signals a potential reversal or absorption of liquidity before a move higher.
My analysis suggests the next likely target is the upper boundary of the range at 5,528, coinciding with a weekly Fair Value Gap (FVG) that has yet to be filled. Should the price approach this zone, I anticipate a strong market reaction, potentially driven by aggressive order flow as participants defend or challenge this key level. If the weekly FVG is invalidated—meaning price sweeps through this area without significant rejection—the S&P 500 could be poised to break out and target new all-time highs from its current position.
S&P 500 futures/SPY idea and simple parallel channel crossSo as you can see by a few minutes worth of doodling...there seems to be an interesting dilemma. While a lot points to a new breakout, be it news that literally changes nothing structurally for actual customer buying or future sales....it's said to be a new bull run.
Yet, just a simple glance at a modified volume chart in relation to the E-mini above....there is something funny arising. Almost like treasury yields-to-bonds, as the market slides the volume increases. And it concaves as it goes back up. But the right most part of the chart doesn't seem to agree with that. You are ripping higher but your volume is increasing. (Those yellow bars are sell volume, and if they look patchy in spots, it's because the buy volume is colored black. This is done to emphasize a trend and to see more clearly if it is strong for buying or strong for selling.)
Back to the idea at hand....so just a possibility- but what if that volume going down while the recent slide on Monday occurred was positioning of a certain group who would get their que from a certain announcement from the Musky-Man. Ergo, the sells aren't really happening but the buying is, so that way when everyone jumps in they unleash selling. To which the concave occurs on the market pullback and the convex, going up, occurs as the market heads up.
It's not some new thing (volume up on highs and down on lows) since the principle of down to highs and up on lows holds true from the ATH of February to the bounce in middle MArch....so it's not some special case- unless you consider games being played as the explanation for why the pattern which holds true even in past '22 and '23 downturns becomes broken.
Now...for the super stretch idea...and I am not predicting so much as throwing out an idea to which I would have done if I was still around the hedge fund kids I was around in high school:
Get people used to buying high rips by setting up the first test balloon of the Monday "fake news 90 day tariff relief"....which can be denied and then used to observe market reaction and to get any last people shaken off the stocks to get the insiders- that massive option call just hours before his Truth Social post is just super coincidental eh?- positioned to take advantage of his future post as the "signal".
Well, it worked great cause stocks ripped and everyone bought all the way to the 50% or so retrace of the previous day high. But interesting that such massive put positions for the April 17 monthly options expiration were seemingly honored and paid out coming into Easter- not too much of a fight on that one. (Well maybe a test to see for the weekend option expiration tomorrow which is 2 days after Tesla earnings). So now- there comes the Tesla earnings right after a slight dip in the market just before the big day, and funny enough the shorts are nowhere to be squeezed...kinda seems like that Wednesday "good time to buy" comment really pushed them off from going balls deep on Tesla shorts for this Wednesday afternoon. Nothing happened so the positions the hypothetical insiders purchased aren't moving and now there is a problem....no squeeze and no stock rally. So now the Musker is informed to give his message mere minutes before the Trump-man gives his about some more unverified tariff goodies. Now you have your sudden move and everything starts going up. So if everyone is buying in and you are heading to a new top...why is the sell volume in that chart falling before that Tesla earnings when the market is slipping....but increasing while the market is rising....going against pretty principled norms.
Well...that's where China comes in saying they have no idea of any meetings- which the panic button of "They...no need to explain who they are" comment is thrown out to keep the markets rising right into Google earnings...which says that the cloud is dead and only ads make money- (but every consumer giant just said sales are down and consumer interaction is down and that tariffs are going to hit them hard...but never mind that...nor that cloud is like AI related and Amazon cancelled Data Center leasing...and that Intel and AMD are pounded even though literally every computer needs one of those two to work...that doesn't matter).
So we are left with tomorrow...or today depending on when you read this....You have a cross at that exact price and the fib lines all correlate pretty well to price action up and down the chart. So my thought is this....and crazy hat wearing time....
What if you sold off gold to cover your shorts and to add new puts on for this weekend into early next week- specifically Tuesday of next week- and then when you suddenly let fly some China tariff related news and get the big 4 news groups to sound bad about it...rather than blocking all the damage that containers sitting across the ocean do when not on a boat each day, you have a beautiful thing as the Trump-man likes to say. You have bought stocks at the lows before the Tesla earnings...then sold them off in the last ~16 hours and then placed puts on- since they have been increasing in volume and open interest every day leading up to tomorrow and next Tuesday- to which you get paid twice in like one week.
Again...just a playful idea...and worth noting that the treasury yields haven't budged from 4.8 or 4.3 from the 20y and 10y respectively and $6 some trillion comes due for rollover on or by June the 20th....so if you want that to be like 2% I think...you got to do some nasty stuff. (My favorite would be to take retirement accounts and pensions and replace them with treasury holdings instead of stocks...a brilliant idea and will surely get that yield down in a hurry- you know--cause for like America or whatever--or as the kids say-- for reasons.)
But that's just me and that's what I would do if handed a decent chunk of change and the cell #s of Musker and the other boys at that inauguration. Could be all wrong...but it's a little fun story no? Gives you a chuckle if I'm wrong and your accounts go up- or scares the hell out of you if right, since it means people like me who used to be amongst the 3 letter crews and hedge bros do this kinda thing on the regular.
Anywho...here is a closer look at that death cross or that "freedom cross", whichever one gets Detroit back to motor city and Bethlehem Steel back in production again- oh wait- that isn't possible- cause you know "they" or something.
ES UpdateWe have an open gap above and an open gap below. I assume the one above will fill first on this rate cut pump until POwell (and/or inflation numbers) squashes it then it fills the gap below.
Everything is green right now, index futures, cryptos, and even gold but I assume that's because it's a commodity not because of speculative hedging. All otehr commodities are up as well.
Flying out to WA tomorrow, no position. Also, RSI is overbought on the 3 hr so be careful. This may be a melt up though. I do expect the gap below to fill eventually, but as we know, sometimes it takes some time.
Probably not trading next week, good luck.
