ES (SPY) Swing Trade that was posted 200/con to 610/conThis trade idea was posted before the move even happened, the reasoning behind it and the target. Most positions are already off at different partial levels. It doesn't need to hit the final target but it still is the strong draw on liquidity I am anticipating. The other thing I am noting while on this trade is that NQ (QQQ) has already taken that level and we will have to see what ES (SPY) does.
ISP1! trade ideas
ES Morning Update Feb 28thYesterday marked the sixth consecutive red day in ES—the first time since April 2024. After breaking down from a two-day base yesterday around 2pm, 5875 was the sell target, and it hit exactly at close before forming a base overnight.
As of now:
• 5875-80 is support but weakening
• Holding above keeps 5913 and 5939 in play
• If the overnight low fails, expect a dip toward 5850 area, then 5835-32
Accelerating Losses Puts Uptrend Under ThreatTraders should be alert to the risk of an accelerated downside move in S&P 500 futures.
After hitting record highs just two weeks ago, the price action has deteriorated rapidly with an initial break of minor uptrend support followed by sustained selling on rising volumes. The 50DMA has given way, as has the February 3 low, leaving the price teetering on the November 2023 uptrend. RSI (14) and MACD continue to trend lower, reinforcing a bearish bias.
If the uptrend fails, bears may target a retest of 5808—a level that has been well-contested in recent months. That aligns with downtrend support extending from the December highs. Beyond that, the 200DMA looms as a key test for those eyeing a deeper pullback.
Alternatively, a bounce from the uptrend would confirm it as support, creating a setup where longs could be established above with a stop beneath for protection. A move above 5935.5 would be an early bullish signal, with a break opening the door for a push towards 6000 and the 50DMA.
Good luck!
DS
Has the S&P FINALLY Found Support??The E-mini S&P 500 (ES) is showing signs of finding solid support after a recent pullback. After testing key levels multiple times, the market appears to have found a strong base, with buyers starting to step in. This could be the start of a potential reversal, as the price action is stabilizing near critical support zones.
Sellers continue to dominateSellers drove the S&P 500 lower on the daily chart. The expectation is for lower prices on Friday. However, the key will be how we finish Friday’s price action. This will provide us with clues are sellers buying the take profits or has this market gotten cheap enough to find buyers approaching the market.
S&P500: Days of DecisionHovering near the 6,000 points mark, the S&P 500 enters the second half of the week at a critical juncture. The next few trading sessions will determine whether the index will push directly to new record highs or first undergo a more extended correction. In our primary scenario, the S&P should continue selling off to settle the turquoise wave 2’s low within the corresponding long Target Zone between 5,667 and 5,389 points. Only from there should the next turquoise impulse wave 3 take over, driving the index to new all-time highs beyond the resistance at 6,365 points. If the S&P immediately resumes its upward trajectory, it might break past 6,365 points without delay. In this 38% likely alternative scenario, the index would bypass the turquoise Target Zone and significantly extend the green impulse wave alt. . Primarily, we consider the green wave as already complete.
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/27/2025MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/27/2025
📈6016
📉5976
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
S&P Futures review Daily chart 2-27-25Bearish microchannel, market is All-in-Short
Bears will sell the Pullback and look for another leg down to test the previous breakout level.
Market has been in a tight trading range. Bears will look to break out of the trading range with continued strong selling. Context on the Weekly chart is good for a stronger sell-off.
Until that happens, bulls will attempt to buy at the bottom of the trading range.
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/26/2025MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/26/2025
📈6035
📉5955
Like and share for more daily ES/NQ levels 🤓📈📉🎯💰
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
ES Morning Update Feb 27thES has remained in the same 6020-5930 range all week, with triggers continuing to play out well. Yesterday, I noted that 5958-62 had to hold and reclaim 5988 to spark a rally. We hit 5958-62 exactly at 8 PM, reclaimed 5988, and rallied +25 points.
As of now:
• Hold runners, as things are getting more complex
• 5996, 5988-86 must hold to keep 6020 and 6042 in play
• A break below 5986 triggers selling
$MES1! Charting to Purchase $SPY 1-DTE Call Option, 15-min TFContract: AMEX:SPY 27 FEB 25 598c
Entry: $2.03 on 1:09pm
Exit: $1.26 on 1:58pm (-$77, -38%)
So after seeing price decrease 0.75%, 45 pints, 179 pips in 2 hours from $6,023.75 to $5,980 (support area), I decided to purchase a call expiring today on Feb 27, 2025.
On the 15min and 5min I noticed price bounced around the $5,980 area and thought price would reverse to the upside.
1) Yesterday on Feb 26 @ 1:09pm, I entered AMEX:SPY 27 FEB 25 598c @$2.03 because of the drop and potential reversal.
On the 5min:
- candle had made a higher low
- became an inside (1) candle #thestrat
- began consolidating & hit support around 5,980.
2) When placing my stop loss, I mistakenly set up my option call to sell when AMEX:SPY (the stock) touched or went above $3.05 instead of programming the option call to sell when the specific option call ( AMEX:SPY 27 FEB 25 598c) touched or went above $3.05.
You live and you learn.
On to the next play.
Es daily recap of price action Quick easy overview of what I look at during the day for my entries and exits.
Im pretty busy during the day so I try to make my charting as easy and clean as my eyes can see. Hope this helps anyone and Im open to anything else I can use as for more confirmations. Thanks!
Explaining why ES did what it did today!Quick explanation of Distribution Schematics, and Unfinished Business using Order Flow. No indicators just being able to see real time orders and limit orders in the market. notice how price enters into a Resistance zone and the Delta turns very negative. Green Flag for shorts.
Be patient and wait for a clear set up.
SPY Short Swing This swing trade idea is based on the daily timeframe. I have also already traded intraday on the same levels and trade idea and have already cashed in those positions. I have few that I am swinging and will take partials along the way and manage them accordingly. One doubt I have is how the NVDA earnings will play into effect. As for now, for indices this trade idea has good RR that's just too bad to miss. I believe the ultimate target will take time to deliver and may offer further opportunities of entry later on. We have been on the bearish OF on all TF and with strong rejection from the D. SIBI will indicate the price is very bearish. So far the signs are there and will need to see how we close today.
S&P 500: Rejection at Resistance and Potential Downside RisksThe chart shows a clear rejection from a key resistance zone around 6,150 points, highlighted by the red area. After an attempt to break through, the price faced strong bearish pressure, falling back below the 6,100 level. The current retracement has led the price to test the 50-day moving average (yellow), which has so far provided temporary support. However, breaking this structure could increase the risk of a sharper decline toward the intermediate support at 5,924, marked by the dashed yellow line.
Recent macroeconomic releases, such as the decline in retail sales and weakening consumer confidence, are weighing on market sentiment, increasing pressure on stock indices. Additionally, uncertainty related to tariffs proposed by the U.S. administration is adding volatility, with investors showing signs of risk aversion. If the price fails to quickly recover the 6,100-6,150 area, the next bearish target could be the more structured support zone at 5,850-5,800, identified by the lower blue area.
In summary, the technical structure reflects a moment of uncertainty with a clear rejection from the weekly resistance. A recovery above 6,100 could bring buyers back in control, while further weakness would open the door to new declines toward lower support levels.
ES Morning Update Feb 26thDespite all the volatility yesterday, ES is right back where it started. After holding ~5933 support, the target was 5996, a major resistance shelf. As expected, it’s taking time to break through and has held all night.
As of now:
• Hold the runner
• Staying above 5988 keeps 6004, 6015, and 6020+ in play
• If 5988 fails, expect a dip toward 5962-58