ES RTH Price Action Review 8-15-24 CPIGoing over the days price Action CPI looking for how we could have traded better and how to position for tomorrow.
ISP1! trade ideas
Wyckoff Top Melt upI think I know why Buffet sold 50% of apple. Because all the big boys will be selling key levels of this melt up so they don't get caught. Retail will keep driving price.
2 legs, possibly something like 40% each. Maybe first into Powel Fed 9/18, then a pull back, then second leg less vertical than the first, into the election EOY. And then we would get massive flushes of selling as large stake holders dump on retail, let them drive it back up, then dump again.
I thought this could happen, but even I didn't see the set up until this moment. It's either that or we do now very hard. What does the sentiment tell you will happen?
We blow up. We get interest rate cuts because the economy is in danger. Fed may even not make a cut until the bitter top, triggering the selling in the winter.
I planned out a Wyckoff blow off months ago, but the price action was so difficult to get a handle on since October, and you really have to shrink and compress your candles down to see the true shape of it. I'm not that experienced, but it appears we'd get near 13k before the end. And whomever becomes president will get the gift of an 80% market drop during their term that has nothing to do with them.
But will have been because of corporate greed, record buybacks to inflate values. Something had to give. Something has to give. Jack holes.
And record retail use. Geez. Wonder what GME does in this bubble? I'm all in on RIVN to the top and then I sell everything. I but it hits 420 and dies. Lol.
This world we live in.
It's a Bull - It's a Bear - It's Time to Make Up Your Mind3 straight weeks of setting from mid-July crescendos with a crash August 2. But the "crash" was met with a vicious buying spree that now places the major index 50% of so from the large high to low swing. In this video, I breakdown the technicals and scenarios trying to make some sense of where we could be heading. We are mostly through Q2 earnings. PPI and CPI prints have been digested (market likes it mostly). We still have retail sales and unemployment claims this week and if the market reacts bearish, it's a pretty obvious sign the market is more concerned about a softer labor market and recession than it is inflation. If the markets reacts bullish and continues to grind higher, we may be looking at another incredible V bottom without the FED having to do anything - which would be a surprise :)
I'm cautiously bullish and believe the market will struggle to blow through all-time highs, but it's possible we still test and sniff them out, though unlikely it will be broad. More about big money moves are cutting positions in Mag 7 so a true broadening will be a nice change of pace instead of a highly concentrated Top 10 carrying the overall market.
Enjoy the video and thanks for watching!
2024-08-14 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment: Also trading range price action since we closed 8 points above the open price, so many parallels to dax. Market is near the big bear trend line around 5500 and the big round number is the most obvious magnet currently. Market wants to get there desperately and a bit above for an easy liquidity grab. It’s likely that we hit 5500 tomorrow and the bear trend line. There bears have their do or die moment as well and I think it’s 50/50 if we reverse or break above.
current market cycle: Bear flag inside the bear trend
key levels: 5430 - 5500
bull case: Bulls now made 360 points from the lows and they now want to break strongly above 5500 and probably make new ath afterwards. Today’s price action was mostly sideways but with higher highs and higher lows, so technically a bull trend. There is nothing to deeply analyse here. We are grinding higher on low volume and are near the big round number and the daily 20ema. Tomorrow we have an answer where the next 300 points will be made.
Invalidation is below 5430.
bear case: Bears trying but not enough. They need a strong 1h close below the 1h 20ema. Right now they have to pray for the bear trend line to hold and find enough sellers at 5500 to trade back down. If the bear trend line breaks, it’s moon time because all the bears will cover their shorts there.
Invalidation is above 5530.
short term: Neutral 5450 - 5530. Need a strong breakout to either side to enter bigger positions again.
medium-long term: Bearish. I gave the 5000 target 3 months ago and we almost got there way earlier than expected. There is a reasonable chance we will see an event unfolding over the next weeks. Something breaks during these violent moves and this time will not be different.
SPX500 retracement?My custom indicator, Confirmator, is signaling a critical point, suggesting the market could be on the verge of decrease. A strong support area is clearly marked on the chart, which could play a crucial role in the upcoming price action.
20240814 ESIt is CPI and it is possibility for the Wednesday High of the week profile. Ideally to see shallow new high of the day and reversal to the downside. The DOL is below the D ss levels. The intraday IOF will provide with move precise targets for the partials and intraday DOL.
I am looking forward to see the first downside displacement around 9.30. It is not compulsory for the PA to make the new HOD before the reversal to the downside but it is an ideal scenario
ES Range Expectations on the CPI ReleaseToday we're again looking at ES e-mini futures for an expectation of the amount of range we could do on this CPI Inflation data release. We take a look at both the upside and downside to get a view on where the boundaries of normality would be to aid us in framing intraday trades.
Yesterday's PPI Inflation data gave us a large grinding day as we reverse some of those moves from the recent volatility. Lets see where we end up!
ES Levels & Targets Aug 14thMy target in #ES_F all week was 5438-42, and buyers rallied to it yesterday. Next up were 5449 and 5467, with 5463 reached overnight. With CPI at 8:30, it’s time to size down, hold runners, and be prepared for literally anything (expect irrelevant noise and traps in the first 30 minutes).
As of now: 5438-42 and 5414 are stretch supports. This keeps 5473, 5495, and 5510 in play. If 5438 fails, look for a dip to 5414 and 5388.
ES OverNight Price Action pre-CPI 8-14-24Going over the price Action ES Overnight into the CPI Report today. size down, manage risk no A+ setup = No trades.
Wednesday CPI reactionThe S&P 500 CPI reaction reported tomorrow can add to the upper momentum if it indicates a cooling-off of inflation. A close above 5490 would be the next objective and will indicate buyers commitment.
AMP Futures - Working with Charts - TradingView MobileIn this idea we will provide a general overview how to navigate working with charts with TradingView mobile app.
The Rip you Short? or the last Dip to buy?Last week's decline DID NOT BREACH THE APRIL LOWS . To be 100% objective, as long as price is above the April lows, we still retain the ability to make one more high. That is the purple arrow on the above chart. Price will need to breach 5587 in pretty much a straight shot now, as this would be a wave 3. However, that is not my primary analysis.
My primary analysis is the ES Futures market is in the final stages of it's minute circle b-wave. that should complete in the target box on the chart. From there, price should be declining in minute circle c-of Minor A. In the ES that should be in the area of the April lows, or slightly below 5,000.
Best to all,
Chris
s'il vous plait E-MiniMarket top priced in
5 wave correction still at play
Wave 4 cannot go into Wave 1, per Frost & Pretcher
Extension left to be seen in this structure
Could extend on wave 5, forming a large "A" Wave
ES is on track for 5500 and NQ aiming for 19,464In my latest video, I break down why I'm bullish on NQ and ES short-term. Not fading these rallies. I rely on Bollinger Bands, AVWAP, Beacon Indicator, and a 5-day SMA for my tech analysis.
This is a mean reversion back to the primary trend—the kind of move that packs serious power. 📈
S&P Pending further liquidation ? ( 8/12/2024 - 8/16/2024)The S&P is currently failing to break out of a statistically significant level as the market awaits further U.S. economic data for the week: 8/12 - 8/16. As long as the price action remains between 5,350 to 5,450 and continues to fail its break-out to reverse the primary trend in this short-term 'break' in broader selling, then we have to suspect that any bad economic releases or geopolitical events can be the catalyst for the next round in selling.
Disclaimer -
The author's information and publications are NOT meant to be, and DO NOT constitute financial, investment, trading or other types of advice or recommendation.
ES Lvls & targets Aug 13thAfter the recent 200+ point rally, investors have been establishing new structure. The targets I provided based on the 5363 reclaim were 5372, 5378, and 5400..all hit, with 5400 being tagged overnight.
As of now: 5378-82 and 5362 (both tested) are supports. Staying above keeps 5393, 5400, and 5414+ in play. If 5362 fails, watch for a dip to 5338
uptrend has formed*MARKET UPDATE:**
Following retracements we saw yesterday in the S&P500 futures, the market has staged a strong bullish rally overnight, which has continued into this morning, and has formed an uptrend going into todays session.
ES Overnight Price Action rEview 8-13-24Going over the price action OVernight looking for clues as to what the market is telling us for the upcoming RTH. planning both long and short scenarios.
20240813 ESI anticipate some upside with likely spike to the upside on the hills of the 8.30 HI news. => After that move to the upside I anticipate the reversal to the downside at least to the equilibrium of the last dealing range. The HI news at 8.30am can create a lot of volatility that is why the upside spike can move further and reache higher that it is marke on the chart. Nevertheless the general view is as mentioned above. I am very interested to see 8.30 price action.
S&P rounding up for the next leg DOWN to 5,000 support?The S&P is currently failing to break out of a statistically significant area as buyers fade and await U.S. economic data for the week: 8/12 - 8/16.
Set up for TuesdayMonday's action provides a set up for Tuesday's movement in the S&P 500. The data structure implies evening up and going neutral into the Tuesday PPI fundamentals. The ideal close on Tuesday would be a close above 5400.
AMP Futures - NEW Feature - Market Replay (All Charts)In this idea we will demonstrate how to access the new feature to use market replay for all charts in Tradingview.
ES price Action REview RTH 8-12-24Going over the days price action looking for clues as to how we could have traded today better. coming up with a plan to trade the Overnight session. do all your work, manage risk, and execute when your system sais go.
