Neutral set upThe structure on Tuesday in the S&P 500 daily chart is neutral going into Wednesday's CPI numbers. This creates a 50-50 type structure but I think the bias is for move to the upside.
ISP1! trade ideas
ES-mini: Very Bearish scenarioI can see a Very bearish micro scenario where the a-b-c up bounce off the Monday low will be shaped as the Running Flat structure
ES Morning Update Jan 14thYesterday, i gave 3 targets—and all were hit plus more: 5848-50, 5866, 5880. Lock in gains now if you were trailing any runners.
As of now:
• 5882 = support (just tested, and weaker now)
• Holding above keeps 5900, 5918, 5928 in play
• If 5882 fails, sell to 5860, then 5848-50
S&P ES Short setup target 5811 / Put SPY target 574Fibonacci technical analysis : S&P 500 E-mini Futures ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) has already found resistance at the Fib level 78.6% (6057.75) of my Down Fib. Last Daily candle (Jan 7) has closed below retracement Fib level 38.2% (5963.75). My Down Fib guides me to look for CME_MINI:ES1! to eventually go down to hit first target at Fib level -27.2% (5811.50).
S&P CME_MINI:ES1! – Target 1 at 5811.50, Target 2 at -61.8% (5731) and Target 3 at -78.6 (5691.75)
Stop loss slightly above the 50.0% retracement Fib level (5991.25).
Option Traders : My SPY AMEX:SPY chart (Down Fib from 602.48 to 580.50) shows price to go down to Target 1 at -27.2% (574.52), Target 2 at -61.8% (566.92) and Target 3 at -78.6 (563.22)
Stop loss slightly above the 50.0% retracement Fib level (591.50).
S&P 500: Recent ventures below 5900 have not last longRecent ventures below 5900 have not last long, as demonstrated by the string of long downside wicks on the dailies in November and December. With a pin candle printing Monday following a bounce off 5808, a close above 5900 on Tuesday would generate a bullish setup heading into Wednesday’s inflation report.
If the price can push through 5900, longs could be established above with a tight stop beneath for protection. The 50-day moving average and downtrend running from the record highs are two potential targets.
Of note, RSI (14) has broken its downtrend, hinting bearish momentum may be starting to shift, although the signal is yet to be confirmed by MACD which continues to trend lower.
Good luck!
DS
Buyers returned but can they follow through?But here's have returned to the S&P 500 on Monday but will they have the ability to follow through to close above 5900 on Tuesday. The PPI report on Tuesday May just give them the incentive to continue to push this market higher.
Pressure In U.S. Stock Indices To Start 2025The start of 2025 has been anything but quiet for the U.S. stock indices. Looking at the March ES and NQ contracts, traders have seen selling pressure and have both broken below the 50-day moving average. With critical economic data being released this week regarding inflation and consumer data, traders will be watching for more aggressive selling into the 200-day moving average, where the March ES has been trading above since November of 2023.
An important aspect to grasp for traders is sizing of contracts when there is a lot of uncertainty or volatility in the market. With larger, more volatile market moves, looking at the micro contracts can be useful as the Micro ES contract is 1/10th of the size, offering a lower barrier to entry and can make the bigger swings in the market less destructive.
If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
*CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc.
**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
2025-01-13 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Strong buying into US close and I expect 5900 to be hit tomorrow or Wednesday. The bear channel is valid until broken, so I want to either long closer to 5800 or short closer to 5900.
current market cycle: trading range (descending triangle on the daily tf)
key levels: 5800 - 6020
bull case: Bulls want to hit 5900 again and the bear trend line from the descending triangle. Their breakout late today is reasonably strong to expect follow-through tomorrow. I would not be surprised if we see early weakness and then a lower high around 5830/5840 before we move higher.
Invalidation is below 5795.
bear case: Bears will likely wait for 5900 and the bear trend line before they initiate bigger shorts again. Overall we see more two-sided trading today than a strong bull trend, which means the upside is likely limited and prior resistance will hold. Bears want to hit 5800 and likely somewhat lower to retest the October and November lows.
Invalidation is above 6030.
short term: Bearish closer to 5900 to trade back down to 5800 and longs only on a decent dip below 5850 again for target 5900.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buy low, sell high. Clear range 5820 - 5840 which was amazing to trade back and forth.
Some of these markets are going lower 1.13.25 up the New York composite and some of the indexes are moving lower which we were expecting. even if you don't short markets you want to know where the buyers and the sellers are and protect long positions if you're long. if you don't short markets you want to start learning how to think like a seller because the big trades will be the short trades as the market moves lower even though the market will have some corrections that go higher first and then they continue going lower. up if you were following my analysis of the market use this as your time where you'll think like both sides of the market. it's not an automatic process especially if you don't think about where the markets will trade lower. most Traders never short. in the equity markets it's much more complicated because of the regulations to short markets and part of this has to do with the fact that your brokerage firm has to have inventory to loan to you if you want to Short and that's a major pain in the butt. in addition you have to pay for a short trade once you borrow that position from your broker and if you short the trade and it doesn't move you'll still be forced to pay for your position even when it doesn't move. you don't have these problems on the Futures markets unless Congress comes in and destroys the market as a trading vehicle as it has done in the past. when a democratic Administration tells you that they're going to make the market safer as they Institute new regulations to protect you will find that you won't be able to trade the market until things improve..... they hinder Trading. in the meantime they're going long and short and they're trading options making millions of dollars.there is a software out there that I think was developed for Vanguard and I think it's available for about $12,000 a year and it's predicated on the weakness of a stock and whether or not the management of a company is selling its shares and this usually happens before the market makes substantial moves lower. and the same thinking occurs when the management of a stock goes higher. the reason why it has no interest to me it's because I think like a scalper and I look for my entries based on where I think the buyers and the sellers are and I do it looking at Futures markets not Equity markets even though I can read in equity Market I just don't trade them.... and it's very important for me to be precise on my entry and that I will have a small stop and I don't care and I don't think about a company and its corporate CEO.
ES - continues the downtrendOn ES , it's nice to see a strong sell-off from the price of 5942.50. It's also encouraging to observe a strong volume area where a lot of contracts are accumulated.
I believe that sellers from this area will defend their short positions. When the price returns to this area, strong sellers will push the market down again.
Fair Volume GAP (FVG) and high volume cluster + Weekly POC are the main reasons for my decision to go short on this trade.
Happy trading,
Dale
Strategy Winter — Spring 2025. S&P500 Index Choking DiagonalUS markets were shacked on Friday, January 10th, after the December NFP jobs report came in much stronger than expected.
The US economy added 256,000 jobs in December, well above the average economist estimate of 155,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1% from 4.2% in November, although it remains above its 6-month simple moving average.
The Nasdaq-100 immediately fell about 1%, while the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note jumped nearly 10 basis points to 4.785%, its highest since October 2023.
The strong payrolls report further strengthened the case for the Federal Reserve not to cut interest rates again until at least 2025.
The move in stocks and bonds is a continuation of what has been happening in recent weeks: After a period of mega-euphoric optimism, investors have begun to expect higher inflation driven by President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed trade and fiscal policies. If bond yields continue to rise, Americans will feel the brunt of it.
The CME FedWatch Tool shows that markets now expect just one rate cut of 25 basis points this year, down from as many as three at the end of last year. The odds of no rate cuts in 2025 more than doubled to 28% on Friday morning.
The dollar index TVC:DXY skyrocketed to the Moon, while the yield on 10-year U.S. sovereign bonds TVC:TNX stays well above 4.5%.
Endogenously, the market has been preparing for such turbulence for a long time, as discussed in the previously published idea “Strategy 2025. BTC Airless Scenario Below $100'000 Choking Point” .
I have to remind that the financial market had tough weeks in December 2024, but it could also face a tough year in 2025, as I noted then.
The market was on track for its worst weeks in years after the Federal Reserve gave a hawkish forecast for interest rate cuts in 2025. But looking at the market internals, it was clear that the damage had been done well before the December Fed meeting – and this signal was a historical indicator of tough times ahead.
Thus, Dow Jones Futures CBOT_MINI:YM1! ended 2024 with the 3rd RED WEEK in a row, forming the Bearish Candlestick Pattern "Three Black Crows" on the weekly timeframe, which developed, remarkably, from the all-time highs of the Dow Jones index.
Last week, Dow Jones Futures ended with the 6th RED WEEK in a row - and this is a rather rare event.
Historical backtest analysis over the past 25 years shows that this can lead to a further (at least) 10-percent drop for the Top-30 stock club.
Bulls have done a lot of work, advanced more than 2,000 points in 2023-24, for the S&P500 index. However they were unable to finalize their achievements confidently above the round 6-thousand mark by the end of 2024.
By the way, the same inability in Bitcoin to finalize 2024 above the round 100,000 mark is now repeatedly throwing the market back to lower price marks, as discussed in the recently published idea.
The main technical chart indicates a suffocating bearish diagonal in development for the S&P500 index, with targets for decline down to 5'250 points.
Bearish Descending Triangle Textbook bearish descending triangle on the daily timeframe. Going to play the breakdown to the downside to see if it comes through. Standby for price targets if it breaks.
Market Stress Echo's 2005-2008 in 2022-2025
Found a correlation between ES1! futures and SPY equity flow of money between the two, starting with 2004
Starting at the first vertical divider one can observe a "sawtooth wave" in RSI naturally known for its robotic sequence. Up to 2008 where this automation stopped. After 2008 we see normal movement in the market, aka "human randomness of noise (buys/sells)" or as I like to call it "human trading" during 2009 to 2016 has less of a robotic movement than between 2004-2008.
Finally we see that in 2022 this sawtooth wave again re-appeared (consider trying ES1!/SPY and observing those time lines on a Daily Chart, you will be surprised at the smoothness of the sawtooth wave.
What does this show me? Is it a crash? Not certainly, however when liquidity is at its max with lower than usual volume (Considering printed money has gotten us out of market liquidity limitations aka bank stimulus in 2008 and buybacks the years after) we can conclude a similar event is unfolding.
At least, we see a pattern and we know what happened at the end of the previous sawtooth waveform.
Will length be similar? Will there be the same amount of waves? This is up to fundamentals and liquidity left in the market after everyone and their grandmother have thrown all their cash in equities (including Europeans currently being the new fish in the pond). No way to predict the end of this liquidity cycle, but I'm watching a break in the form.
Another good use on the smaller timeframe daily candles is to watch ES1!/SPY for reocurring green or red candles (green normally means ES1! gains liquidity, Red normally means SPY gains liquidity).
Example: If 4 green candles in a row, high probability 5th green candle with be red giving another probability tool for downward daily scalp. In the same light if 4 red candles in a row, higher probability 5th will be green giving low risk high reward daily scalp call.
While this tool is great for scalping and complementing existing tools like supports/resistances/technical patterns/RSI/EMA's/VWAPS in the short term. In the long term this ES1!/SPY can show interesting patterns that only seem to pop up before major crashes, looking closer one can notice the same loose pattern pre-2000 dot com crash.
Since the majority of the market has begun automatically trading using algorithms and over time increased in this automation, this leads me to believe this signal to be even louder than in the past: dot com vs GFC vs current day repetition.
#ES! #short-term bearish sign. #long-term BUY! S&P 500#ES! short term bearish sign. #Buy the dip.
Retest of the support levels to attract more buyers and turn into Bullish trend.
Watch the key levels- support 5740 ,
sink below this levels may push 5640 level gap up
Retest 200 ma
trendline support
possible to fill the gap up area
#202502 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-miniGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Neutral but slightly bullish if we stay above 5800. Downside would probably be limited with 5800 but we could easily go back to 6000 again. If we get a daily close below 5800 I change my mind and the bull trend line around 5750 would be the next lower target. Overall the probability of another big move up or down are small and sideways is most likely. On SPX we have a bull gap down to 5782 (ES is 40 points higher, so it would be around 5826) and it would be strong by the bears to finally close it after 2 months.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 5800 - 6030
bull case: Only thing bulls have going for them is that we are barely making lower lows and are still above 5800. If bears were strong, we would have tested the big bull trend line from 2023-10 by now, which is still 400 points lower. This market has not had two consecutive bear months since 2023-10 and bulls can be confident it stays that way. Bulls who bought near 5800 made money since 2024-09 and I expect them to come around again next week. They will be scaling scale into longs already or wait until we are closer to 5800 and the probability is on their side. Bulls who bought the previous two lows in December and last week, also made at least 150+ points and until we see more trapped traders (bigger gaps), sideways inside the bigger range is much more likely that a strong move down.
Invalidation is below 5780.
bear case: Bears changed the character of the market but failed to establish a strong bear trend. Once we see decent buying pressure early next week, they will likely give up and try again near 6000. They simple can not hold short below 5900 when we rallied 150+ the past two times we got below it. The best bears can do is to print lower highs below 6040 and go sideways for longer below 6000. Once we get closer to the bull trend line from 2023-10, it’s likely that we see another strong push up to test 6100+, if we haven’t see a strong break below 5800 by then. It’s typical trading range price action and the range is big enough for both sides to make decent money. You have to play the range because we can go sideways for much longer.
Invalidation is above 6040.
short term: Neutral between 5840 - 5900. If bears continue to make lower highs below 5900, they have a chance of testing 5800. Once we break above 5900, we will test the bear trend line around 5930ish next and above 5960 bears have to give up and wait for 6000 or 6030 before shorting again.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Marked current bear channel on the 1h tf and removed the bull trend line from the 2024-11 low that got broken.
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 1.12 - 1.17.2025Last Week :
Sunday Globex opened inside the Mean of Previous HTF Range and got a push to VAH which held into RTH that brought in more buying to make a run at the Ranges Edge where we found Supply, for strength to remain we needed to stay and build over VAH instead we build supply at/under VAH and when buying ran out we made a move for VAL. From weekly plan this is what we were looking for a push back under 978 - 73 Intraday Edge to give us sells back towards the Edge where we saw covering and support which gave us holds for a couple days but over all we were ablet to stay under VAL and build supply which kept signaling weakness, Friday we built up enough supply to fully break through the Edge and this time around with more supply above us we had enough selling to get into new Value. Area over swing stops provided good covering which gave us a push back out of Value but we can see that selling was strong enough to get back into the Mean area of the Range to close just above those stops.
This Week :
This week we are set up open inside the Value of new/previous HTF Range of 913 - 792, We are inside 882 - 841 Intraday Range, Under the Daily Mean of 913 - 896 with now more supply trapped over it. The area where and way we closed Friday is signaling that we should see continuation to the current move or at least more weakness going into this week, as long as we hold under VAH under 5888 - 5900 we can continue with weakness towards current Intraday Edge lows at 841 - 36 which would also take out the swing swing stops under us to give us more selling to test lower VAL and possibly see sells under it towards Previous Distribution Balance we had which was a big cost basis area above Daily Edge that we consolidated at for some time before making new ATH 10.14. To me this was our real ATH and possibly a top area as everything after that was more of Election Speculations and Momentum which died out and now brough us back under that ATH.
Also mentioned last week that we had a big failure over Daily Edge which usually targets previous daily areas and so far we have visited Daily Mean which Friday we finally broke and closed under and tagged Daily VAL which is this 846 - 828, Daily lower Edge is 754 - 24 which has some Poor/Weak Lows and a contract roll gap under. Daily Edge and Gap under will still remain good targets going forward but need be careful as those are Daily targets and can take time for us to get there, current VAL and areas under it could provide good enough covering holds and new buying when prices hold to give us enough support to not continue for bigger targets right away but instead balance and build more supply which we will need to go and fill those areas out when we are ready.
Over all we are looking for more weakness going into this week but we have to be careful as we have that Previous Distribution balance at 800 - 750 area which had 2 weeks of consolidation that can keep us up and see covering at or over it. For bigger moves out of this HTF Range we would either need to hold and build supply under VAL before taking out the Edge like we did last week above or we would need strong volume that can break VAL and another strong push that can fully break lower Edge to hold under 780 - 70s, until then we may stay inside new current HTF Range and balance around its Value and areas out of Value without accepting under/over Edges.
For strength to return or to think higher prices out of this Range we would need to be able to hold over VAH and see a good push in above Edge that could hold inside it without coming back in, until then Higher Time Frames have been transitioning into a correction mode so far Daily is in correction as long as we keep holding under 960s and Weekly as well showing signs of corrections starting but it still needs time to set up which can take time so we have to be patient especially after big moves already taking place.
ES, waiting for this sell off to complete...This week we will be watching the pull back continue. We might see a relief bounce
early but our conviction tells us we will continue down to fill the previous gap below.
With CPI coming out and the hot jobs numbers a fed cut is seeming less likely in turn sending markets down.
Rising bond yields hurting the S&P 500 indexThe rising bond yields is one of the top reasons why the S&P 500 index has pulled back in the past few months. Data shows that the 30-year yield surged to 5% for the first time since 2022. The 5-year and 10-year yields have also continued rising in the past few months.
These yields rose after the US published strong nonfarm payrollsdata on Friday. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the economy added over 264k jobs data, higher than the median estimate of 112k. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, the lowest level in three months.
Therefore, these numbers confirmed the Federal Reserve’s view that the labor market was doing well. Officials are now focusing on the steady inflation and have hinted that the bank will only deliver two cuts this year.
Last year, we wrote about the bond vigilantes and warned that they may impact the stock market. These vigilantes are investors who typically push bond yields significantly higher when government spending is rising.
$NQ & ES BearishThe NQ and ES on the monthly chart showed signs of rejection, indicating a possible correction toward a PDA located in the discounted region of this timeframe. Consequently, on the daily chart, there was a shift in the price delivery state, now seeking this liquidity as well as the daily sell sides. We maintain a bearish outlook for the assets, but it is important to note that the price may correct toward the premium region of the daily chart, seeking new liquidity to build momentum and ultimately reach the monthly chart objective: a more pronounced drop.
January 11 2025 - long wing 2RRSetup was good lacking premium discount
Aggressive entry only
Entered breaker with FVG
SPX under pressure after Bdown. Secular uptrend still valid.SP:SPX NYSE:ES has broken down a relative support. Potential further lower prices ahead. SPX Adv-Decl made new low.
Extreme bearishness might be good buying points.
Combined US Equities - Critical Support Line BROKEN DOWNJust yesterday, the line was drawn and by the close of the day/week, it was done... the line broke with a close below.
So, zooming out into the weekly charts, and we see the TD Sequential starts for a Buy Setup (means bullish till end of Setup). Projecting a simple waterfall scenario brings US equities down to target at the TDST, and meeting a confluence of several support levels.
Noted MACD crossed down as is RoVD tapering down too.
This is the simplest straight line outcome.
Alternatively, might see a weak bounce for a lower high on the weekly charts and then the cliff fall in mid- to end-February.
Just need to know, then decide what to do.
On a seperate note.
The First 5 days of the trading week of January is part of the January Barometer where how January closes is how the year goes. and this ended DOWN.
Now, if January is ending DOWN as well, then you decide how 2025 is ending most likely.
Already obvious 2025 is challenging till September.
Watch for it and be wary.
All the best!
trade gone bad 1/10/25 messold at the red line thinking it was in a pretty clear downtrend. where did i go wrong?
