Time to catch its breathThe expectation for Monday after the volatility on Thursday and Friday in the S&P 500 is for the market to stop absorb what happened and catch its breath which would mean that Monday's range would be inside Friday's range.
ISP1! trade ideas
20240802 ESI anticipate some downside potential for the 30min till 9.00am. I anticipate an upside move with TGIF narrative. It is too early for the reversal call. I would like to see where price will be at 9.00am. Meanwhile the initial reaction to the NFP news is to the downside. I anticipate that to be a fake move and the main move to be to the upside. BUT there should be signs of reversal to the upside.
NEW INFORMATION REFLECTED IN FORECASTOver the last three weeks, sellers have been aggressively selling, creating a pretty clear three wave corrective structure with a possible target of 5300 support. Daily RSI is cooling substantially as price nears that zone, indicating a possible change of behavior may be coming. When combined with the weekly divergences, the evidence suggests that we are likely still in a intermediate (yellow) degree wave three and it’s target needs to be pushed higher toward the 6000 zone. This is even more evident when analyzing the lack of divergences on the monthly chart. With all evidence considered, the market is in for some large swings, but still positioned bullish on a higher degree.
ES Levels & targets Aug 2nd5447-50 was key support overnight. I mentioned that it was final support before sellers break us down to 5414 and after testing over 10x last evening, it cracked, selling to 5414.
As of now: Same as yesterday. Sellers control until 5448-50 reclaims. 5400, 5378 below here
S&P Post ISM Data (fear) 20/40 or 100 MA?After Manufacturing data out the US caused fear and a selloff in Global Equities, we can look for new areas likely to be hit.
This comes before key jobs data also out the US.
Key support exists lower, and could be ideal for very, very light longs in a risk off environment.
To the north? Short areas around 20/40 with caution again.
If markets reject current impetus and go with strong economy rhetoric. We may see further rises.
AMP Futures - Chart Themes - Tradingview MobileIn this idea we will demonstrate how to create chart themes using Tradingview mobile app.
AnticipationThe S&P 500 price action on Thursday implies a market that is anticipating a possible recession and that the Fed may be too late in adjusting interest rates. I do not look for a big day down on Friday unless the labor numbers that are reported create that type of market reaction. If not, I'm looking for an inside day on Friday as we go into the weekend.
ES Levels & Targets Aug 1stEarlier this week I mentioned that as long as buyers hold 5438, we can break out this 5438-5528 multiday range to 5585.. We hit 5585, for a 150+ point rally.
As of now: Hold runners if you have them. 5572, 5558-60 are supports. Keeps 85, 5605+ live. If 5558 fails, sell 5546, 5528
Over Night Price Action REview ES 8-1-24Going over the ES Overnight Price Action. looking for clues as to what the market was telling us and how we want to trade today. ONly A+ trades today. nothing other than A+ trades. no setup no trade today. no FOMO
Getting ready for job reportsThe objective to the upside is 5630 in the S&P 500 for Thursday's S&P 500 range. However, dramatic volatility is not expected as the Thursday's market action is the set up for the job reports coming out on Friday.
FUTURES - ES Short Bias.
price above 5629.75 would invalidate short bias. This would be the stop-loss point
Short entries looks to be between 5605.50-5602.
First target 5462.
full pattern playout - $5358.25
ES Ascending WedgeES has a steep ascending wedge here on the 15m that is heading straight into trendline resistance. This trendline above is critical, it is the uptrend from the April lows that was recently broken below. This is the first retest, and with the wedge I expect at least a small rejection. I'd say it's likely we'll see a big rejection, but if we don't I'll probably be looking for longs tomorrow.
This is a critical moment here, everything is on the edge and I think this week could determine direction for the next 3-6 months.
FOMC ES Price Action REview 7-31-24Going over the price action FOMC day. very difficult day. technically challenging for sure but we go over how we could have traded it better and try to understand the clues the market was leaving us.
AMP Futures - Chart Trading - Tradingview mobileIn this idea we will demonstrate how to execute trades directly off the chart using TradingView mobile app.
2024-07-31 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: The bull trend line around 5430 held and market bounced for 150 points since yesterday. The 50% pb from this recent sell off was 5578 and today’s high was 5588, while closing at 5556. Tells you that market is respecting the 50% pb and could not close the month above it, which is good for the bears. Where does this leave us going into August? Absolutely neutral imo. Bear trend line is broken and the big bull trend line held. Bulls want a retest of 5700 and bears to stay below the 50% pb and sell off again, because at this angle they have a decent channel downwards to 5000. My channel on the chart was drawn last week.
current market cycle: Trading range until 5500 is clearly broken.
key levels: 5400 - 5600
bull case: Bulls had the expected bounce and yesterday I said the selloff after hours was most likely a bear trap. So it was and bull want to keep the momentum going and closing the bear gap to 5640 next. If they can close that, they will most likely also retest 5700 but as of now, they could not close above 5600 and are under the 50% pullback. Had they closed the month above 5600, I would be much more bullish going into August.
Invalidation is below 5540.
bear case: Bears kept it below the 50% pb, around the daily ema and technically bulls just got a breakout retest of 5560. The selling into today’s close was strong enough to not expect an easy melt up through 5600 tomorrow. Bears also have going for them, that with this lower high, they have formed a proper channel, which could lead us to 5000 over the next months. 5570ish is the current price and the worst place to trade. Can go either direction and I will wait for strong momentum to either side.
Invalidation is above 5600.
short term: Neutral af.
medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. Will update this time and price wise over the weekend but I expect to at least see 5000 over the next months in 2024. —unchanged
S&P Fear/Risk Off Mode: Catch The Next Moves!You can see Safe haven inflows coming about as a Risk Off environment ensues.
Recent recession fears and speech is causing slight panic and some selling across global equities.
Could this be the start of a larger move?
ES with a YUGE green candle. See you at new all time highsThe bullish strength here is evident from candle spread, volume price BOTTOMS (July 19, 25, 31 Daily candles) With the July 25 candle showing the wick (wycoff 'spring')
Can't be taking shorts at the bottom that's for sure, but you also don't wanna be shorting every new all time high. Best route? Probably something that has more patience (expiry if options) and playing the long side
Weekly chart also shows strength, from the similarity to Jan2 and Jan8 Weekly candles, to the gap fill we just did.
The trend is your friend as they say.
Morning Session REview ES 7-31-24Going over the morning session ES RTH looking for clues to what the market was telling us and how we could have traded better today. FOMC coming up and that will decide the next leg of the market.
Eminis Chart with Trendline Support July 31 Chart showing how trendlines can keep an investor in a stock or make a decision to sell a stock.
Keep in mind, that the more times a price touches a trendline, support or resistance line; the more apt it is to cross that line.
Nice bounce off of trendline support!
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities and only for informational purposes.
Es Levels & Targets July 31Excellent follow-through overnight from buyers in ES. 5438 was the key support level yesterday as mentioned all week and in plan, with 5482 needing to be reclaimed to trigger a move up. This target was hit overnight, resulting in nearly +100 points from the 5438 long zone.
As for now: Ride the runners if you have them. Next targets up are 5534, 5546, and 5555+. Support levels are 5519 and 5511.
Using CME Group Event Contracts For FOMC & End of The Month ES1! Looking for additional tools to use in your day trading for event days like FOMC and Month End? Watch Anthony Crudele dive into CME Group's Event Contracts in his latest video. See him analyze the E-mini S&P 500 using AVWAP and Bollinger Bands.
Overnight & Yesterday's ES Price Action REview 7-31-24Going over the price action from yesterday ES and the Overnight session. looking for clues the market was leaving us and how we can position ourselves for the upcoming day.
Combined US equities - D-DayYesterday, the Gap reopened, after an early week stall on Monday. These last two candles have top wicks suggesting selling pressure to keep the gap open. Thing is, I would have preferred to see a more solid down candle.
Meanwhile, this indecision is biased to the downside from indicators and longer term chart (week) point of view. The MACD is in bearish territory and the VolDiv is bearish too. Price has been supported and one of two things will happen:
1. More probable is the volatility spike and markets breakdown fast as they are overdue; or
2. the less likely sudden extreme bullish rally, at the risk of being a blow out top or near term double top for a bigger bolder downside drop in a few months.
Given these, and other supporting charts for a probable downside, I would watch the support breaks very closely.
