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ISP1! trade ideas

A Margin Selling Bottom?E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September) S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled 5227.50, down 38.75 NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 17,966.50, down 212.50 Equity markets fell precipitously in the second half of yesterday’s session, finishing at Monday’s intraday low. From yesterday’s high, this was a 3.5% move into the overnight for the E-mini S&P and more than 4.5% for the E-mini NQ. I have noted here and in my short ‘end of day’ videos that although there is a high probability a low area was created Sunday night, we expect continued choppiness this week. For one reason, there is tremendous overhead supply at Friday’s gap settlement, the area in which we failed yesterday. Second, as the market works through a consolidation across this region, there are margin calls carried from as early as Friday. In that case, Friday’s calls were at Day 3 yesterday which means forced liquidation. This explains, at least partly, once the selling started why it did not stop. Today’s economic calendar brings Initial Weekly Jobless Claims, a number becoming increasingly important, especially after last week’s read hit a cycle high. The read came in better than expected at 233k versus 241k expected, soothing recession worries, but last week’s was revised up 1k to 250k. At noon CT, there is a 30-year Bond auction and it brings an interesting dynamic. With the yield curve steepening although yesterday’s 10-year auction was weak, the yield of the 30s has outperformed the yield of the 10s by about 20bps over the last month. This could be a defining moment for buyers to step in. In such a case, we see it supporting risk assets. When compared to last Thursday’s reversal, yesterday’s selling was lower in volume. We believe this to support our narrative of a choppy but constructive consolidation. Given additional weakness after the settlement, both the E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ have ground to make up and a more difficult path in turning positive on the session. Our Pivot and point of balance noted below for each aligns with settlement and will be crucial through the first hour. If we see strength as the afternoon approaches, major three-star resistance in the S&P will become absolutely critical at 5262.50-5266.25, and a move above here will set the indices on a path of repairing just yesterday’s damage. However, a break below major three-star support in the E-mini S&P at 5189-5192.25 is likely to invite additional selling. Bias: Neutral/Bullish Resistance: 5262.50-5266.25***, 5278.75-5279.50**, 5292.25**, 5300.50**, 5319.25-5323***, 5331.75-5334**, 5342-5349.75**, 5354.75-5459.25**, 5366.50-5376****, 5420***, 5432.50-5441.25*** Pivot: 5217.50-5227 Support: 5202.25-5204.25**, 5189-5192.25***, 5146-5161.25***, 5120**, 5092-5102.75***, 5059.75-5078.75*** 4988.25*** NQ (September) Resistance: 18,147-18,179***, 18,243-18,289***, 18,341-18,382**, 18,438-18,482***, 18,520-18,557****, 18,725-18,738*** Pivot: 17,966-18,016 Support: 17,856-17,893**, 17,711-17,741***, 17,509***, 17,333-17,398****, 17,110-17,180****, 16,826-16,870*** Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Blue_Line_Futures
ES / MES/ SPX / SPYMy ES, SPX & SPY charts are "busy" with scalp levels (Using MES) The current short-term H&S pattern has played out, but it's possible we make a neckline around 5000 for a much larger H&S, similar to what we saw in late 2021 into 2022. IF we form a neckline at 5000 and create a right shoulder (5400ish), and that neckline is later broken the downside target would be 4300ish. In theory, H&S target is the same distance between the neckline and head. 2022's neckline to peak to trough was almost 1:1; it did miss by a little. Low was 3843 and in theory, should have hit around 3775 (it needed to go 1.7% lower to hit) but that extremely close. If the labor market weakens further , and we see a mild recession, this wouldn't be far-fetched. Expected EPS for 2024 = 245 Using a recession multiple of 17/18x P/E and 5% EPS growth vs the 10-15% expected, earnings would be 257ish. At 4300, and 257 earnings, the P/E would be 16.7x
CME_MINI:MES1!
by pkp544
Bear Flag or bottom? And, the Japanese Yen Carry Trade...The debate among traders is if this is a real bear flag that's forming and there's another leg down for the indices? Or, if the bottom, had be set by the lows on Monday. I believe that the lows were established on Monday and the indices are consolidating and will move upward soon. This consolidation period also allows the moving averages to catch up after the fast decline we had experienced.If the selloff is caused by Japanese Yen carry trade then it is a one-time event without much lasting effect. As I mentioned before - most of the Macro trends point to a higher year end - consumption, jobs, liquidity.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by KJKaramay
Long S&P 500 setup as bulls absorb big selling volumes S&P 500 E-minis have absorbed plenty of selling over the past few sessions but are yet to take the lows struck on Monday. While that doesn’t mean they won’t, it looks like futures may be settling into a new sideways range between 5350 on the topside and 5154 on the downside. Granted, the latter is only a minor level that was breached in the peak of the market puke on Monday, but the dip was bought aggressively below the level. While signals on momentum like RSI (14) and MACD point to continued downside risks, sitting near the bottom of the newly established range, a long setup could be on the cards if we see risk-reward of the trade improve. It’s not a high probability setup, so if we’re going to go against the trend, we don’t want to be risking a lot. Pullbacks towards 5154 offer one entry point, allowing for a stop to be placed below Monday’s low for protection. The trade target would be the top of the range at 5350. Those wishing to get in now could do so with a stop below 5154 for protection. Target would be the same as the preferred setup. From a fundamental perspective, Thursday’s US jobless claims data may be influential on the trade with a stronger-than-expected outcome likely to ease concerns about the US economic trajectory, and potentially the outlook for corporate earnings. DS
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by FOREXcom
2024-08-07 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bear flag broke and we on our way to retest the lows. After hours sold off another 22 points so far. If the Globex session is bad enough, we can make new lows but for now I expect them to hold. We are in a very volatile environment and it’s hard to forecast anything. The daily chart shows a clear picture imo. Huge rejections on anything above 5250 but also below 5200. Bears had a climactic sell off and bulls are trying to find the bottom. I think more sideways inside the given range is the most reasonable outlook and everything else a surprise. current market cycle: Bear trend key levels: 5000 - 5300 bull case: Bulls had two very decent legs up today to make 120 points, just to see another huge sell off into the close down to 5200. 5240 is the mid point of the recent trading range at these lows and a magnet for the next pullback. I do think most bulls got reasonably disappointed by the bull trap today and want to look for longs at the lows again, so probably not until we get around 5150. Invalidation is below 5090. bear case: Bears trapped the bulls as my subtitle stated yesterday. They want a retest of 5119 and maybe 5100. I expect the lows to hold but you always have to calculate with market surprises. Only if something broke badly will we see more sellers than buyers below 5120. More reasonable is that we move sideways and get another pullback to > 5300 before another leg down. Bears want the market to stay below the bull wedge breakout 5280 or they risk another test of 5300 and or above. Invalidation is above 5280. short term: Bearish until we retest 5120, then neutral and waiting for bulls to come around for another pullback. medium-long term: Bearish. I gave the 5000 target 3 months ago and we almost got there way earlier than expected. There is a reasonable chance we will see an event unfolding over the next days/weeks. Something breaks during these violent moves and this time will not be different.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by priceactiontds
ES soybean oil8 7 24 Here I made some comparisons between the es and soybean oil. I made my point in the video so there's no need to spend a lot of time on this introduction. I believe the biggest problem Traders have aside from not having enough capital, is that the biggest problem they have is the way they think and their inability to recognize it and make meaningful changes. and because of this inability to change they end up trading to a personal psychology filled with remorse and disappointment and anger and hopelessness...... and they don't know how to change. as I write this introduction it occurs to me that this is not so much different from my efforts over the past year or so to lose weight, to stop eating sugar and most carbohydrates even though it would be good for me. and I still eat sugar and carbohydrates and I have lost weight....... but it reminds me That most of us have our demons and that if we want to improve our lives we have to spend time and acknowledge what the demons are and what we need to do to change. I've never made a business of teaching people about trading for me to make money. but there have been a few people that I've tried to help because they didn't know how to trade or they didn't make money when they trade and I would tell them that they need to study the market and look for Clues and then test their Insight without risking money because the risk of financial loss sabotages the ability of most people to learn and learning takes time and you have to draw the lines if you know what they are on the chart before you start trading.whatever your internal dialogue is like.... I will speak for myself so I don't offend anyone.... I don't understand how I could trade with fear or remorse or anger...or a sense that I had some control....not to change the market but to take a good trade with a small stop and a reasonable reward and that I could relate it to the way other buyers and sellers including the smart money and the retail money.... and do this with a stop that isn't going to make me angry or fearful because I've tested it and have experienced from the past I believe most people start trading to make money. what they really should do in my opinion if they want to trade.... is to learn how to think before they trade.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ScottBogatin
SPX500 Sentiment Pause - Will Risk Off Return?It is very helpful as a trader to split Market scenarios into two categories; risk on, and risk off. Risk on environments are times when risk is ON for traders. They want to invest, and take risks. The SPX, for example, is one of these assets as there are some stocks which have higher inherent risk based on their history. Risk off environments are when we see fear flood in and risk is OFF. Investments that require high risk are taken away and the money is plugged into safe haven assets, like JPY/CHF or cash / fixed income assets. We have just seen the two be played out in the same couple of weeks. This has stalled on a few words out the fed calming the seas. However, nothing can stop one bad print coming it and it trashing Markets, nor can the BOJ easily stop their situation with the yen and unwindining. I would not be surprised if markets turn over again, so be careful on any sizes and entries.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by WillSebastian
ES Bear FlagES nearly filled the gap today from Sunday evening, but rejected before it did. That was also another test of 5300 that briefly overshot before erasing the entire move. This is the second time in the past week where ES and NQ have rallied substantially and then reversed the entire move in 24 hours. The volatility I have been warning about is here and this is the new normal until VX cools off, if it does anytime soon. I'm not sure if it will, but for now I see this action as extremely concerning for bulls. ES did have a very nice inverse H&S that led to today's rally, but it quickly stalled and failed after it broke 5300. We saw some large orders coming in up there around 5310 and 5300, which I think is significant enough to note. ES has been forming this clean bear flag since opening Sunday night and today it rejected off the top end and came all the way back to the bottom end and closed nearly right on the line. This is critical if bulls can not save it here, ES and NQ are likely to break below the April lows this week if bulls do not step in. That would just makes things a whole lot worse. As I've said, this is just the beginning. Price will not go straight down, we'll have rallies and short squeezes. However, there is a high probably of continued downside for at least 2-3 months in my opinion. If we break April lows, the next major target is 2023 lows, which seems very far away for most. Price can get there faster than anyone can imagine, be careful out there.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by AdvancedPlays
ES1! Monthly ButterflyLooks like a bearish butterfly is complete on ES, Typical targets are usually between the A-C points or possibly extending down to around 2800 or so which would be a pretty large correction Medium term fib cluster levels shown for possible short term bounce If it really starts to fall and in all honesty I think looking at some of the FANG stocks that have such a large weighting on the indices and the JPY carry trades unwinding I think a deeper retracement is likely as there is a general sense of de-risking... No trade for me but pretty clear example
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by dionvuletich
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