S&P – Bearish outlook, correction coming next week?A lot of chatter recently suggests traders don't trust this rally, I can see why. From both a technical and macro perspective, things are beginning to look shaky.
The S&P 500 is hovering around the psychological 6000 level, moving in and out with little conviction. The index has already broken its first upward trendline, and while it’s attempting to hold a second, momentum appears to be fading.
We’re currently seeing the formation of a rising wedge pattern. More importantly, RSI is diverging from price action, suggesting weakening momentum.
While inflation has come down from its peak, monetary policy remains tight. Rates have been high for a while now, and the effects may be surfacing.
Hiring appears to be slowing. Initial jobless claims have been ticking up for months. Challenger job cuts just spiked above 200K, a level we haven't seen since COVID or 2008.
Interestingly, the recent JOLTS report shows that job openings increased, but quits declined, perhaps suggesting workers are less confident about job-hopping?
Despite this, unemployment held steady at 4.2% today. Historically, unemployment tends to lag Challenger job cuts by a few months, so we could be in for a jump in July or August, similar to the pattern we saw last year, which caused a huge correction.
From a technical standpoint, I’ve entered a small short position here. Momentum is fading, and the wedge breakdown looks interesting. With that said, with macro uncertainty and the possibility of QE-style stimulus returning if economic data worsens, I’m cautious. We’ve seen markets rally on bad news before, especially in crisis environments, like covid times.
The CPI report next week is interesting. If inflation surprises to the upside, the bearish case strengthens. If it cools more than expected, markets might push higher before any real correction.
Interesting times going into summer.
ISP1! trade ideas
06/02/25 Trade Journal, and Where is the Stock Market going tomo**EOD accountability report: +1176**
Sleep: 6 hours , Overall health: Health is getting better as I am getting a bit more rest, but can't seem to push past 6 hours of sleep. Might attempt to sleep earlier as i am usually heading to be around 1-2 am and waking up around 9. Also learned that I have pretty high cholesterol last week, so I plan to start implementing fiber pills into my night stack as it is essential to flooding out cholesterol.
**Should I release my daily supplement stack?**
What was my initial plan?
Bullish going into the market as we went over $5900, and looking for BTD at MOB, Flipped Bearish as we lost MOB.
**Daily Trade recap based on VX Algo System**
— 10:00 AM VXAlgo ES X3 Sell Signal
— 10:30 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!
— 11:26 AM VXAlgo YM X1 Sell Signal
— 2:00 PM VXAlgo NQ X3 Sell Signal
Next day plan--> Above 5900 = Bullish, Under 5880 = Bearish
Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
CME Gap Aligns with 4h 200 EMAThe CME Gap around 5710-5730 is beginning to align with the 4h 200 EMA.
4h RSI has been diverging bearish 3 times with each leg up within the channel above.
Also, a breakdown of that channel has measured moves down that align with both the 4h 50 and 200 EMA:
- 50 EMA an 0.5x measured move down
- 200 EMA a 2.5x measured move down
Pre-req on targeting the gap is a breakdown of the parallel channel shown above, and then loss of the 4h 50 EMA.
Good luck!
New All Time High This Summer?Market is showing real strength here. After the uncertainty and those tariff windfalls, price is recovering well and looks like it’s setting up for continuation.
As long as we stay above that Monthly FVG, I think the path to a new all time high this summer is pretty realistic. That could possibly be supported by Nvidia earnings in late May and interest rate cut in June.
What are your thoughts?
SPY to pullback AFTER bullish Thursday Friday Gap Fill TargetI was initially skeptical of the bearish case because we were able to stand strong against the Moody's downgrade, but I guess all good things come to an end, at least temporarily, especially with the bond yields spiking higher today.
I drew a channel off the downtrend and I think it is pretty wide, so I would expect us to follow it at least for the next week, obviously if we break to the upside then you can probably put the bearish concerns to rest, but until then with the lower low I think we are decidedly bearish for now, especially if we make a lower high to end the week (pretty likely)
I wouldn't pile into puts just yet, as that is what the greedy retail trader is doing, and we all know how that works, also seasonally the Thursday Friday leading into memorial day are usually bullish, combined with Bitcoin making new highs, I think we will actually have relatively neutral to bullish price action to close the week.
The Tuesday-Thursday after memorial day are seasonally a bit more bearish, so I think that is where we will see a surprise sell-off and possible fill of that huge bar around the 5720 area.
There is a lot of price action between 5600 and 5700 so I think the support there will be strong, this is only a pullback and I am still bullish long term.
Good Luck and Happy Trading.
S&P ES Long setup target 5963.50 / Calls SPY target 596Fibonacci technical analysis : S&P 500 E-mini Futures CME_MINI:ES1! has already found support at the Fib level 78.6% (5623.50) of my Down Fib. Last Daily candle (May 2) has closed above retracement Fib level 78.6%. My Down Fib guides me to look for CME_MINI:ES1! to eventually go up to hit first target at Fib level 127.2% (5963.50).
CME_MINI:ES1! – Target 1 at 127.2% (5963.50), Target 2 at 161.8% (6205.50) and Target 3 at 178.6 (6322.75)
Stop loss slightly below the 61.8% retracement Fib level (5506.25).
Option Traders : My AMEX:SPY chart Down Fib shows price to go up to Target 1 at 127.2% (595.82), Target 2 at 161.8% (620.50) and Target 3 at 178.6 (632.50)
Stop loss slightly below the 61.8% retracement Fib level (549).
Enjoy the trading process and take time to smell the roses🌹