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ISP1! trade ideas

ID: 2025 - 0021.13.2025 2nd trade of 2025 executed today. Trade entry at 158 DTE (days to expiration). Trade construct is a PDS (put debit spread) at Delta 25 combined with a PCS (put credit spread) at Delta 13. Sizing and strike selection is designed to keep the risk/reward "AT EXPIRATION" to a 1:1 risk profile. This lets charm work it's magic (second order greek), while exploiting the fact that this is a non-directional bias. The process is a disciplined and systematic approach letting time decay evaporate the extrinsic time value from the short options until target profit is achieved. IF target profit is not captured after 60 DIT (days in trade), then target is reduced by 50% for the next 30 days. Happy Trading! -kevin
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Kevins
ES Morning Update CPI DayYesterday’s setup came from a failed breakdown of the 6066-70 zone at 9:30 AM in ES. The daily target of 6093 was reached at 11 AM, and sellers have held below that level since. With CPI scheduled at 8:30 AM today, it’s time to let the runners work if you have them. Or sit on hands til after As of now: • 6078 and 6066-70 must hold through any CPI traps to keep 6109, 6115, and 6126+ in play • If the price dips below 6066, expect a move down to 6020 Check my CPI Trading Guide I sent out yesterday evening on how to trade days like today.
CME_MINI:ESH2025
by ESMorg
10 February 2025S&P 500 saw gains as investors appeared to grow accustomed to President Donald Trump’s latest tariff threats. Many on Wall Street now perceive these announcements as primarily a negotiation tactic. However, concerns remain that the expanding list of tariff hikes could drive inflation higher, potentially delaying expected interest rate cuts. Investors will closely watch Wednesday’s release of the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) for inflation clues, along with retail sales data later in the week. Meanwhile, the latest New York Federal Reserve survey, published Monday, revealed that consumers’ long-term inflation expectations have risen to 3%, the highest level since May 2024. Although markets seem more resilient to tariff-related news, the broader economic consequences of these policies continue to be a key focus for investors and policymakers.
CME_MINI:MESM2025Long
by cyfoo
MES1! weekly analysisMonday Morning Analysis - Weekly News Numerous JPOW pressers Inflation PPI Retail Technical MA's have yet to turn bullish RSI above 50 Price well above VWAP Price Action Supply Resistance between 6112 - 6085 Accumulation support 6022-6009 Current Up-trend Displayed Change of Character (CoC) at Sunday night open, with a large gap down breaking the trend. Analysis With upcoming news releases and no change on the tariff discussions, extremely bullish action seems unlikely. Look to sell - Target 6085-6111 Look to Close around 6016
CME_MINI:MES1!
by WillNixTrading
Market Outlook for Week 7 (US):Upcoming Week Economic Events & Data Releases (February 10-16, 2025) The coming week will bring several crucial economic events and data releases, which could significantly influence market trends and investor sentiment. Below are the key events to monitor: Key Economic Events & Data Releases U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) Report (Tuesday, February 13, 2025) Time: 8:30 AM EST The U.S. CPI report will provide insights into inflation trends, with investors particularly focused on whether inflation remains elevated or continues to ease. A higher-than-expected reading could reinforce concerns over persistent inflation, while a lower print could support risk-on sentiment. U.S. Retail Sales Report (Wednesday, February 14, 2025) Time: 8:30 AM EST The retail sales data will offer an important gauge of consumer spending trends, a key driver of economic growth. A stronger-than-expected report could indicate that consumer confidence is holding up, while a miss could signal weakening demand. Bank of England Interest Rate Decision (Thursday, February 15, 2025) Time: 7:00 AM EST The Bank of England is expected to maintain its current interest rate, but any commentary on future rate hikes or economic outlook could impact the British pound and bond markets. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (Thursday, February 15, 2025) Time: 8:30 AM EST The jobless claims report will offer the latest data on the U.S. labor market. Any surprise spike in claims could fuel concerns over a slowdown in hiring or a potential recession. Major Corporate Earnings Reports A range of companies, particularly in the financial and consumer discretionary sectors, will report earnings next week, including JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Home Depot. These reports could provide insights into the health of the broader economy and consumer sentiment. Market Implications Equity markets will likely remain sensitive to any economic data that may signal a shift in growth or inflationary pressures. Strong retail sales or a cooling inflation report could boost investor optimism, while any signs of weakening consumer demand or elevated inflation may prompt risk aversion. The bond market may experience volatility based on the CPI report and retail sales data, potentially influencing Treasury yields. The U.S. dollar’s direction will be influenced by the inflation data, jobless claims, and retail sales report. A stronger dollar could arise if inflation remains sticky or if economic growth expectations falter. Volatility could spike in sectors sensitive to economic conditions, including retail, consumer goods, and financials.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeTools
Understanding Fibonacci In TradingUnlock the secrets of Fibonacci and its powerful applications in trading. Learn how to use Fibonacci tools to identify optimal entry and exit points, manage risk, and refine your trading strategies. While many traders are familiar with basic Fibonacci retracements, this guide will also explore advanced techniques and lesser-known concepts. 📚 The Foundation of Market Geometry 🔢 What is Fibonacci? The Fibonacci sequence is a series where each number is the sum of the two preceding ones: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34... This mathematical principle, introduced by Leonardo Fibonacci in Liber Abaci (1202), is foundational to nature, architecture, and financial markets. The key ratio derived from this sequence is 1.618, known as the Golden Ratio. ✨ The Golden Ratio and Market Significance The Golden Ratio (1.618) and its inverse (0.618) appear frequently in natural patterns and price movements. In trading, these ratios help determine potential support and resistance levels. Other critical Fibonacci-derived levels include: 0.236 (23.6%) 0.382 (38.2%) 0.5 (50%) (not strictly Fibonacci but widely used) 0.618 (61.8%) 0.786 (78.6%) 📊 How Fibonacci Became a Trading Tool Traders noticed that price movements often respect Fibonacci levels, leading to the creation of Fibonacci-based tools: 📉 Fibonacci Retracement: Identifies potential reversal zones during pullbacks. 📈 Fibonacci Extension: Forecasts potential profit-taking levels. 📐 Fibonacci Arcs, Fans, and Time Zones: Advanced tools for multidimensional analysis. Circles Fans 🛠 Applying Fibonacci in Trading 📍 Step 1: Identifying Swing Highs and Swing Lows Choose a clear trend and mark: Swing High (peak before price declines) Swing Low (trough before price rises) 📏 Step 2: Using Fibonacci Retracement Levels On platforms like TradingView, apply the Fibonacci tool: Uptrend: Draw from Swing Low to Swing High. Downtrend: Draw from Swing High to Swing Low. Key retracement levels act as support or resistance zones. 🚀 Advanced Fibonacci Concepts 🎯 ICT Optimal Trade Entry (OTE) Zone A modern adaptation of Fibonacci, OTE focuses on the 0.618 - 0.786 retracement zone. 📊 Bullish Setup: In an uptrend, the price pulling back into the OTE zone signals a high-probability long entry. 📉 Bearish Setup: In a downtrend, price retracing into the OTE zone suggests a shorting opportunity. 💎 The Golden Pocket The zone between 0.618 - 0.650 is known as the "Golden Pocket." This is a prime area where the price often finds strong support or resistance before continuing its trend. ⏳ Fibonacci Time Zones While most traders focus on price-based Fibonacci levels, Fibonacci Time Zones can predict when significant price movements may occur. These vertical lines are placed at Fibonacci intervals (1, 2, 3, 5, 8...) from a significant market event. 🔄 Fibonacci Confluence When multiple Fibonacci levels align with other indicators (trendlines, moving averages, pivot points), it creates a Fibonacci Confluence Zone, strengthening the probability of a reversal or continuation. 📊 Fibonacci Clusters Traders can plot multiple Fibonacci retracements/extensions on different timeframes. Overlapping levels suggest a high probability reaction zone. 📌 Combining Fibonacci with Other Tools Fibonacci analysis is most effective when combined with: 📉 Candlestick Patterns: Confirmation for reversals or continuations. 📏 Trendlines & Moving Averages: Validate Fibonacci levels. 📊 Volume Analysis: Gauge strength of reactions at Fibonacci levels. 🧠 ICT Strategies: Incorporate Fair Value Gaps, Inversion Fair Value Gaps, Breaker Blocks, and Order Blocks for precision entries. 📍 Practical Applications of Fibonacci ⚡ Scalping: Use Fibonacci on lower timeframes (1m, 5m) to identify intraday opportunities. 📈 Swing Trading: Combine Fibonacci retracements with trend analysis for multi-day trades. 💰 Long-Term Investing: Apply Fibonacci tools on weekly/monthly charts to pinpoint major turning points in the market cycle. 🏆 Key Takeaways Mastering Fibonacci enhances your ability to: Identify optimal entry and exit points. Manage risks with precision. Gain deeper insights into price movements. By integrating Fibonacci with other trading strategies, you can refine your approach and improve decision-making. Start experimenting with Fibonacci tools today on TradingView and elevate your trading strategy!
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by CandelaCharts
07 February 2025President Donald Trump said he would soon announce a plan on reciprocal tariffs on American imports. The major averages flipped into red territory this morning after US consumer sentiment sank to a seven-month low in early February. Inflation expectations jumped amid concerns about Trump's tariff threats. Americans now expect an inflation rate of 4.3% over the next year, a full percentage point higher than last month, the University of Michigan survey found. The 10-year Treasury (^TNX) yield rose to a session high of 4.5% in the wake of the sentiment update and the monthly jobs report. That report saw US economy added 143,000 jobs in January, missing economist expectations, but still showing signs of resilience in the labor market. Unemployment ticked down to 4.0%, from 4.1% in December.
CME_MINI:MESM2025Short
by cyfoo
1
ES/ Morning Update Feb 6thYesterday morning, ES triggered longs with the reclaim of 6037. The targets came in perfectly—6056, 6076, 6087, and 6105 were all hit, with the final target reached overnight. I emphasized in my daily summaries for the previous couple days the importance of letting the trade run instead of over-managing, and that approach remains in effect today. As of now: • 6086 is holding as support • This level keeps 6105, 6115, and 6130 in play • If 6086 fails, expect a dip to the 6066-6070 zone
CME_MINI:ESH2025
by ESMorg