How to Trade When Buy/Sell Alerts Conflict with Market StructureQuestion:
If we have a buy/sell alert and an opposing Market Structure, how can we tell which will prevail or is heavier?
Answer (VX Algo System perspective):
In the VX Algo system, both the alert signals (buy/sell) and the market structure are crucial, but they serve different roles:
Alerts are dynamic triggers based on price action, momentum, or specific algorithmic conditions. They indicate potential entry or exit points.
Market Structure reflects the broader trend and underlying order flow, indicating the prevailing direction of the market (e.g., higher highs and higher lows for bullish structure, or lower highs and lower lows for bearish structure).
When an alert contradicts the prevailing market structure, the heavier factor is usually the Market Structure because it represents the dominant order flow and sentiment. In other words, alerts give you tactical timing, but market structure provides strategic context.
How to tell which prevails:
Confirm with Market Structure: If the market structure is bullish (uptrend), a buy alert aligns with it and is more likely to succeed. A sell alert against that structure is a warning sign that the alert may be weaker or a potential false signal.
Volume and Momentum: Use volume or momentum indicators (built into VX Algo or complementary tools) to see if the alert has strength behind it. A strong sell alert with high volume during an uptrend may indicate an imminent structure shift.
Multiple Timeframe Analysis: Check if the opposing alert is supported or rejected on higher timeframes. A buy alert on a lower timeframe against a bearish higher timeframe structure is less likely to prevail.
Risk Management: If you trade against structure alerts, reduce position size and tighten stops until the structure confirms the shift.
Summary: Market structure is heavier and more reliable for directional bias. Alerts provide tactical entry timing. When they conflict, lean on structure for bias but watch for alert strength as early signals of possible structure changes.
ISP1! trade ideas
06/27/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis 06/27/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis
EOD accountability report: +915
Sleep: 6 hours
Overall health: edgy from sleep
** VX Algo System Signals from (9:30am to 2pm) 3/4 success**
9:37 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal :check:
9:55 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! :check:
10:31 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal (double sell) iffy
1:43 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! :check:
**What’s are some news or takeaway from today?
and What major news or event impacted the market today?
**
Early on in the market, I noticed that there was heavy manipulate by the MM with violent buy and sell. This somewhat warns that today's market could be tough to trade and you have to be very patient.
News
PRES TRUMP: ENDING ALL TRADE TALKS WITH CANADA; WILL TELL CANADA ITS TARIFF LEVEL IN COMING DAYS - around 1 :40pm est
What are the critical support levels to watch?
--> Above 6200= Bullish, Under 6185= Bearish
Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
S&P 500 VS ATH, how to break through?Technical objective achieved! The S&P 500 index has reached its all-time high, offering a bullish V-shaped recovery since the bearish shock of early April against the backdrop of the trade war between the USA and its main trading partners.
In our previous TradingView analysis, we highlighted numerous favorable technical signals since mid-April in favor of this rally towards the all-time record, including an analysis of the chart battlefield for the S&P 500 index at the beginning of June, which you can reread by clicking on the image below. In general, don't hesitate to follow our Swissquote account for regular updates on stock market indices and all other asset classes (bitcoin, forex, commodities, etc.).
The short-term question is whether the S&P 500 index is in a position to break through its all-time high (ATH) in the immediate future, or whether it needs to enter a consolidation phase first.
The answer to this question is both technical and fundamental.
1) From a technical point of view, here are the conditions that would enable the S&P 500 to surpass its all-time record (even if it were to enter a short-term bearish consolidation first)
The market may need to take a breather in the short term after the strong upward rally of the last two months. But for the medium/long term, the underlying trend remains bullish above support at 5800 points and above the 200-day moving average. On the long time horizon, the theoretical target for wave 5 (Elliott waves) lies at 6500 points.
In order for the S&P 500 to be in a position to break through its all-time record, it is imperative that stocks in the most important sectors in terms of weighting are bullish. The S&P 500 can only go higher if the technology, financials and consumer discretionary sectors contribute.
The study of US retail trader sentiment provides a contrarian approach to the financial markets, and it bodes well that doubt and pessimism remain dominant among retail investors. Bear in mind that market tops are built on euphoria, not pessimism.
Finally, in terms of quantitative analysis, the overbought zone is still a long way from the current price level, so it's conceivable that the S&P 500 index could be in a position to surpass its all-time record in the course of July, even if a consolidation phase were to develop in the short term.
2) In terms of fundamentals, two factors seem to me to be essential for the S&P 500 index to be in a position to make further progress
Firstly, the US equity market will not move higher until there is confirmation that the Fed will resume cutting the federal funds rate. On this subject, this week we offered you a full fundamental analysis, which you can read below. The market needs the FED's pivot on either July 30 or September 17. In terms of valuation, the S&P 500 is expensive again, so rate cuts are needed to justify further upside.
With the rebound in share prices over the past 2 months, S&P 500 valuation is indeed back in the high zone, so we'll need sharply higher prospective earnings to justify a possible new all-time high in the coming months.
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06/26/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis 06/26/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis
EOD accountability report: +731.25
Sleep: 5 hours
Overall health: meh
** VX Algo System Signals from (9:30am to 2pm) 3/3 success**
— 9:38 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3
— 10:30 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
— 11:27 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal
What’s are some news or takeaway from today?
and What major news or event impacted the market today?
today was another interesting day, i am noticing that when market structure changes 2x in the same direction, it is usally pretty effective and scammy at the same time
News
*NVIDIA NASDAQ:NVDA SHARES HIT A NEW HIGH TO RECLAIM WORLD'S LARGEST STOCK TITLE - market is being carried by the momentum of mag 7
What are the critical support levels to watch?
--> Above 6175 = Bullish, Under 6155= Bearish
Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
Wait and see market environmentThe structure on Wednesday in the S&P 500 daily chart implies some market that is in a balanced condition and provides a wait and see market environment. It is waiting for additional information to respond to. The biases still for move to the upside. The next objective higher is 6175.
Déjà Vu: Echoes of 2018 in Today’s MarketI’ve spotted a striking resemblance between the current price action and the 2018 market structure. This emerging fractal might be a key to anticipating what comes next.
🧩 Similarities between the 2018–2020 and 2025 corrections AMEX:SPY CME_MINI:MES1! OANDA:SPX500USD CME_MINI:ES1! TVC:SPX :
Technical similarities:
Drawdown depth: roughly ~21% from peak to bottom
Correction shape: similar wave structure — a double zigzag (dZ)
Reversal dynamic: V-shaped bottom followed by a smooth, rounded recovery to ATH without sharp retracements
Behavior around key MAs:
– test of the 200-week MA as support
– brief breakdown below the 200-day MA, then quick reclaim (fake-out)
Volume profile: increased volume during the selloff, resembling capitulation before reversal
🌍 Key macro parallels:
Fed tightening cycle: Both periods saw interest rate hikes and QT against a backdrop of strong economic data.
Policy shift: In both cases, Powell started with a hawkish tone and softened it after the correction (2019: “mid-cycle adjustment” with three rate cuts).
Strong labor market: Unemployment hovered near 50-year lows (~3.5% in 2019; 3.4% in 2023), suggesting an overheated economy.
🌐 Trade risks: 2018 vs 2025
– 2018: escalation of the US–China trade war
– 2025: rising global protectionism, supply chain pressures, and tariffs
This leads to higher costs → margin compression
In both cases, risks to global demand and corporate earnings
This fractal aligns well with both of my long-term wave count scenarios:
Base scenario:
We’re inside a large impulse, where wave 3 is experiencing a classic extension. This implies the bull market could stretch into the 2030s, with smoother phases of growth and distribution. In this view, the current structure resembles a second wave forming as an rFL.
Alternative scenario:
The ongoing correction is wave 4 of a large cycle. After this volatile phase, a final rally — the terminal wave of this supercycle — is expected to follow.
SPX Bullish Breakout: 18% Upside to $7,300The S&P 500 has broken out of an inverse head and shoulders formation, targeting approximately $7,300 within three months. The MACD shows strong bullish momentum with a recent crossover above the signal line. The price is holding above the 21-day EMA, further confirming bullish momentum.
SPX Rug📊 Chart Analysis: ES1! (S&P 500 E-mini Futures, 1H) – Impending Breakdown via iFVG and Rising Wedge Top
This chart represents a technical analysis setup for ES1! (S&P 500 E-mini Futures) on the 1-hour timeframe. Here’s a contextual breakdown pointing toward a potential “rug pull” scenario by the end of the week, driven by an internal Fair Value Gap (iFVG) rejection and wedge resistance structure:
⸻
🔺 Structure Overview: Rising Wedge and Distribution Top
• The price action is following a rising wedge, which is typically a bearish reversal pattern, especially when occurring after a strong impulse move.
• The wedge’s upper trendline has just been tagged or slightly breached, with price showing early signs of rejection (small-bodied candles, wicks).
• A parabolic curve is drawn projecting a rounded top, suggesting buyers may be exhausting into resistance.
⸻
🧩 Internal Fair Value Gap (iFVG) in Focus
• The shaded gray area below current price action marks an iFVG (Internal Fair Value Gap) – a low-volume inefficiency formed during the recent bullish rally.
• iFVGs often act as magnetic zones, pulling price back to “rebalance” before continuation or reversal.
• Price has not yet filled this inefficiency completely, indicating a likely retracement target.
⸻
📉 Projected Breakdown Path
The curve implies a rounded top formation, with the following potential sequence:
1. Minor liquidity grab just above the wedge resistance.
2. Failure to hold above resistance confirms a deviation and traps late longs.
3. Sharp drop into the iFVG zone (gray block).
4. If iFVG support fails, acceleration toward the lower wedge trendline could follow — a true rug pull scenario.
⸻
🔻 Bearish Confluence Factors
• Volume divergence or lack of sustained momentum at highs (not visible here, but implied).
• The steepness of the rally suggests FOMO-driven buying, often vulnerable to reversal.
• The price has extended significantly from the last consolidation base, creating air pockets below.
• Candle structure shows upper wicks and rejection tails, signaling supply.
⸻
🗓️ Timing Bias – Into Week’s End
• Given the tightness of the wedge and proximity to iFVG + overhead resistance, any retracement could be swift and violent, particularly if driven by macro catalyst or profit-taking.
• Expectation would be a breakdown into Thursday or Friday, aligning with common volatility windows (e.g., weekly options expiry).
⸻
🔚 Summary
• Bias: Bearish (short-term)
• Trigger: Rejection of wedge high / deviation above resistance
• Targets:
• Primary: Fill of iFVG (gray zone)
• Secondary: Breakdown to lower wedge support
• Invalidation: Sustained acceptance above wedge trendline with bullish continuation
06/24/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis EOD accountability report: -717.50
Sleep: 4.5 hours - heat waves in nyc
Overall health: meh
** VX Algo System Signals from (9:30am to 2pm)** 4/4
9:40 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! 5 pts
9:42 AM VXAlgo NQ X3 Buy Signal (failed)
11:00 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! 20pt
11:58 AM VXAlgo NQ X1 Sell Signal (failed)
What’s one key lesson or takeaway from today?
and What major news or event impacted the market today?
There are days that the algo will lose but you just gotta trust the process and execute accordingly with a stoploss.
What are the critical support levels to watch?
--> Above 6130 = Bullish, Under 6125= Bearish
Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
PREVIEW LONDON SESSION - Tue 24th June 2025 --- LONGWe had one demand filled day.
And I don't see it stopping. We have blown through 100 and 125 projections and I predict 150 will be reached soon. SO, after london open I will be looking for LONG discounts on the 5m/15m charts and targeting 6162.50 (poc strike) that coincides with 150 (PINS OFF) projection.
A Trend on Borrowed Time, A Micro ED within a Larger ED?Since mid-last month, the broader equity market has been grinding higher — but not with confidence.
The advance has been marked by choppy, overlapping price action that feels more hesitant than bullish. Yes, prices continue carving out higher highs and higher lows, but MACD momentum tells a different story. With every push upward, the MACD weakens, flashing warning signs beneath the surface. Taken through the lens of Elliott Wave theory, this unfolding pattern carries all the classic fingerprints of an Ending Diagonal — a structure that often signals a trend on borrowed time.
Key Characteristics of an Ending Diagonal:
1. Position in the Wave Structure:
A. Occurs in Wave 5 of an impulse wave or Wave C of a corrective pattern (such as a zigzag or flat).
B. Rarely, but sometimes, seen in Wave 3 of an impulse, but this is generally associated with a leading diagonal, not an ending one.
2. Structure:
A. Composed of five sub-waves, labeled (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v).
B. Each of these sub-waves subdivides into 3 waves (i.e., they are all corrective or "3-wave" structures, often labeled as a-b-c).
C. This gives the whole pattern a distinct 3-3-3-3-3 internal structure.
3. Price Behavior:
A. Overlapping waves: Wave 4 often overlaps with the price territory of Wave 1, which is normally a rule violation for standard impulsive structures — but it's allowed in an ending diagonal.
B. Converging trendlines: The upper and lower boundaries of the diagonal typically form converging lines (like a wedge), though they can also be parallel in some cases.
C. Diminishing momentum: Often accompanied by momentum divergence, meaning price makes a new high or low, but momentum indicators (MACD, RSI) do not confirm.
4. Implication:
A. An ending diagonal suggests the current trend is running out of steam.
B. Once complete, a sharp reversal or significant correction is expected.
In my analytical view, the byproduct of an Ending Diagonal often lures market participants into a conflicted state — cautious, yet unable to ignore the persistent upward grind. You’ve probably heard the old market adage: “Don’t fight the tape.” In this case, that mentality sets in as traders, wary but worn down, finally throw in the towel and join the advance — only for the market to seemingly punish that decision with a sharp reversal.
Many experienced traders describe their Ending Diagonal experience the same way: “The moment I finally stopped fighting the trend and got long, it was as if the market was waiting for me — and reversed hard.”
That is how I would describe this micro ED we appear to be in the final stages of what I’m counting as the micro wave v of (v) of Minor A.
For now, no key structural support levels within the Micro Ending Diagonal have been breached, so the advance can certainly stretch a little higher. But make no mistake — in my opinion, this remains one of the most dangerous, deceptive patterns to engage with.
Last week, I closed my short out-of-the-money ES call positions during the micro wave iv pullback (not shown on the above chart). Ideally, I’m looking for an opportunity to reestablish a similar position this week. From there I will reassess the larger Ending Diagonal pattern you see outlined on the chart above.
SHORT @ London Open - Monday June 23rd 2025I believe Sellers are in control of the auctions. I see a nice distribution wall above to launch shorts from. Target the 150 where there seems to be liquidity target making sense of a short trade. ALWAYS wait for Lopen. Demand may come in and take over 6025/Dist Wall. If so there is plenty to like about the LONGS then with liquidity above. How price comes into 6025 at Lopen is what we need to be looking for.