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#202424 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures Quote from last week: bear case: Bears are still inside the bull flag and making lower lows. As long as they are staying below 5310-5320, their bear case lives on but is weak at best. They could not get consecutive daily closes below the daily ema and the reversal on Friday made the daily, weekly and monthly bar more buying than selling signals. You could argue that we are building a similar structure to April, where we had the double top and then only lower highs until bears finally accelerated it down big time and we got below 5000. Could this happen here too? Of course. We will find out on Monday or Tuesday. comment: Monday and Tuesday were bullish dojis on the daily chart but bears finally gave up on Wednesday where we did all of the points gained for last week. I said that the bear case was weak at best and that stays the same, until bears will get below the breakout bar and price of 5300. That levels needs to become resistance, for bears to have a shot. I do think the price action speaks more of a leg inside a trading range and we just made a higher high, but if bulls can get above 5400, that take is wrong and we are in W5 which could bring us to 5500/5600. current market cycle: Bull trend or trading range. It’s unclear. We do not get consecutive bull trend bars on the daily chart since first half of May. The daily chart makes higher prices but only through spikes, followed by pull-backs or dojis. This is not behaving like a leg in a strong bull trend. key levels: 5300 - 5400 bull case: Market refuses to go down but it’s not as bullish as it seems. A deeper pull-back is around the corner imo. Bulls are still in full control and could get another spike up, if market chooses to front-run the events or interpret the news as bullish. Chart is clear imo, W5 can lead to 5500 or higher but for that to happen, bulls need a strong break above this wedge top. Invalidation is below 5300. bear case: Bears gave up on Wednesday after trying on Monday and Tuesday. The only thing they had going for them over the last 15 weeks was, that they kept weekly closes below 5300, which should have been bigger resistance. Looking at the weekly and monthly chart, it’s just bullish, despite the up moves getting weaker and bulls only get single spikes and no follow through. No matter if we get a W5 up, market will have a deeper pull-back like the one from April to below 5000. We will at least touch the bull trend line again over the next couple of weeks, if not break it. Bears need consecutive daily closes below 5300 for that to happen. Invalidation is above 5400. outlook last week: “ Neutral until bulls get follow through. I do think bulls are favored but we are right at the upper bull flag line and it’s a weak bear trend inside this bull flag until bulls stop the lower lows and make higher highs again. ” → Last Sunday we traded 5295 and now we are at 5355. 5260 was my target for the bears and the weekly low as 5246. The lows held and bulls pushed it above 5350, which was my bullish target. So both prices I laid out got hit. short term: Bullish above 5320 for another leg up to 5500 or higher but only if it happens until end of Tuesday. medium-long term: Trading Range until 5000 is clearly broken and has turned resistance. If bulls can break strongly above 5350, it’s obviously a continuation of the bull trend and my next target would be 5500/5560. —unchanged current swing trade: Not interested in buying up here, except intraday scalps. If CPI comes in hot, I will initiate new long term shorts. Chart update: Removed the bull flag, that’s it.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
ES Plan For Monday // Not Financial AdviceWe have both CPI and FOMC this week on Wednesday. As always, we can only take things level to level, and trade the structure and price in front of us. There was lots of price action Friday, but ultimately to go nowhere and remain stuck in the same range. I consider this range to be 5372 to 5342 still, with a couple traps above the zone and below the zone. Everything inside this range you have to trade level to level, or you will lose money. When it breaks, there will be another trend leg…but it may not be until CPI or FOMC. We don’t need to predict when it will break, or how, we just need to take the setups one trade at a time and leave runners for when the breakout does happen. 5355 is first support down from Friday’s close. (Right below it). This is a used up level now, and its always best to wait for it to fail a little below and then reclaim to trap all sellers and give u a nice aggressive move up. Below there is 5342-45 big level again. This level is also in its late stages now, being tested heavily last week. We had a clean test of it on Thursday and a failed breakdown Friday. So typically any test from here on could be the one that cracks it. Below there, we could flush, and I don’t want to be long again until sub 5320. I’d be interested in trying longs near 5313, and if we really drill... 5272. Shorts are not in the picture for me currently as I do not short resistances in bull markets. For me to enter short, id need to see buyers react at 5342 once more though, either a clean direct bounce or a failed breakdown, to drain any final demand from that level and remove the "trapping aspect" from it. After this plays out, I’d consider short 5340. Profit takes are level to level. Do not look for home runs. We could easily just go down 1 level and reverse again. Especially on FOMC week.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
The Power Of The 50-Day Moving AverageBuying a breakout can be a challenge especially if you are not used to seeing one. When you look at this chart you can see that the price is near the overbought area on the trend strength. It is this kind of reading that can force someone, or analysts to think the stock market is going to crash, in fact based on this trend strength it is supposed to crash. But what is keeping this market going? who is pumping money into the markets? There is a lot of conspiracy theories, that we can dive into but thats not what this article is about... this article is about technical analysis. Now according to technical analysis, the price is above the 50 MA also, the 200 MA is below the 50 MA, this analysis means this price is in an uptrend. This is called the Rocket Booster Strategy To learn more Rocket Boost this content also, notice that the power of the bulls is very high what colour in the above indicator represents the bull power? That is the key to trend strength. Remember to Rocket boost this content to learn more. Disclaimer: Trading is risky you will lose money whether you like it or not, please learn risk management.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by lubosi
Market Crash - ES 1D Red Flags & Blow Off Top RallyIf you don't know already, my entire trading strategy is essentially based around dow theory. I am going against my own strategy a bit by attempting to pick a top, which according to dow theory, is a losing strategy. The trend is your friend, etc. However, dow theory also states that a trend has to be confirmed by volume, otherwise it is invalid. SPY had several days where it was the lowest volume in years. There were also a couple of two day periods that set a record for the lowest volume in consecutive days in years. This happened twice, first it had two days in a row of extremely low and abnormal volume, then later in the rally, it had another consecutive two days that were even lower than the previous two. Highly unusual. On top of this, I believe we are experiencing a blow off top rally that will ultimately end in an extended bear market. One of the confirmations for this is the recent greed and meme stock mania we've seen in the market along with the adoption of crypto and the ensuing rally. Everyone expect BTC to hit $100k, and I did too. But now, I expect it to take a lot longer than I first thought. Meme stock rallies have marked major market tops every single time.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by AdvancedPlays
ES New All Time High Targets & General OutlookAfter buyers broke us out yesterday, ES is now basing right off the uptrend channel sellers tried to leak us from June 3rd (5370). This is very typically after a trend leg/breakout, as after these play out, longs are risky (due to chasing), shorts are risky (against the trend), so this causes a very high chance of chop the day after. And that's exactly how today is playing out. This is very vital to understand, as MANY traders lose lots of money overtrading after the trend move happens, all because we naturally try to recreate missed opportunity. Don't. We are building a small flag now above 5363. 5375, 5390, 5403 are the next ATH targets whenever buyers are ready. If sellers want to backtest some supports, 5348 is 1st down, then 5342 CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:MES1!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
ES1! PM long opportunity using algorithmic levelsToday we'd seen beautiful reaction to algorithmic levels! +1/3 AWR acted as support after yesterday push above it and -1/3 ADR likewise! another confluence was D -M OHLC statistical mapping (tool) and H4 IFVG! ADR is usually TRUE Support & Resistance! and most of the time we can use it within Higher Time Frame context. same goes with OHLC statistical mapping when we are bullish we use -manipulation! combining this with ADR/&AWR can be really helpfull!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Keclikk
2024-06-06 - a daily price action after hour update - sp500 e-mGood Evening and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Very similar to nasdaq so if you are a regular reader, I won’t bore you with a long talk about trading ranges. Bears showed some strength from bar 36 - 53 but bulls are still in BTFD mode and as long as that is profitable, this is what they will continue to do. Bulls are in full control and found acceptance at the highs today. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5320 - 5373 bull case: I think the first time I calculated the 5560 target for sp500 was in February or something. I did not believe we could get there but here we are. If bulls get another break above the current ath and 5400, we can absolutely get there rather sooner than later. Bulls will continue to try buying every dip and it’s just a matter of bears giving up again. Bull trend lines are alive and well and there is no reason for bulls to exit longs. I think they want to keep it above 5350 or bears might think they have a chance. Invalidation is below 5320. bear case: Bears tried and failed, twice. Two-legged moves inside trading ranges are the norm, so everything was in order today for the bulls. Bears are in pain and if bulls can get another strong momentum rally above 5373, we can see capitulation again. If bears manage to somehow break the drawn bull trend line and get strong closes below 5350, we could see 5300. Invalidation is above 5400. short term: Full bull until clear trend-line break and prices below 5350. medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. —unchanged current swing trade: None trade of the day: 5370 was rejected many times today, was good for short scalps. Other than that, very tricky day. Buying bar 49 was reasonable but bar 53 was a very big surprise which got many stops. Losing is part of this game, accept it and make peace with it.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds