Buyers are holding their ownBuyers are holding their own in the S&P 500 and continuation to the upside is expected for Thursday. The upside projection is 5580.
ISP1! trade ideas
AMP Futures - Managing orders & positions with the trading panelIn this video we will demonstrate how to manage orders & positions with the trading panel.
Quiet dayWith the holiday on Wednesday the expected price movement in the S&P 500 would be a quiet day. Not looking for dramatic volatility to the upside or to the downside without surprise news.
2024-06-18 - a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment: Nothing fancy to report here either. Market is in balance and bulls poking at 5560. They want a break above for 5600 and will probably get it soon. Bears shorting the resistance at 5558ish and making money but will be quick to give up, if this trades above 5563/5565.
current market cycle: Max bullishness & peak bubble territory. Literally the peakiest of the peaks. Mother of all bubbles. Will end over the next weeks.
key levels: 5540 - 5600
bull case: Perfect buying at the 1h 20ema today for another ath 1 point above. Bulls want 5600 next. I leave room for 1 more leg up but that’s it. No more after that.
Invalidation is below 5540.
bear case: Bears need to stop the higher highs and trade below the 1h 20ema. Until they do that, max bullishness. Don’t make it more complicated. Can literally buy every pullback and make money.
Invalidation is above 5565.
short term: As bullish as one can be. Ride it up. 1 More leg possible to 5600 but that should be it.
medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. Will update this time and price wise over the weekend but I expect to at least see 5000 over the next months in 2024. —updated weeks to months.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying 5543 or near the 1h ema or literally every 15m bear candle and scalp.
ES Price Action REview 6-18-24Going over the Price Action for the DAy ES looking for clues and what the market was trying to tell us. Wednesday market closed call up some of your buddies and enjoy the day off in the sun & the beach like me :)
Bear Interim and Macro: 4h/30m Prime4h on left:
Next rotation on 4h bearish on interim hma and dmi, interim r1 @ 5564 , s1 @ 5547, macro s1 @ 5522, break below and macro rotation goes bear as well, dip to 5443 feasible.
30m on right, price pushing to macro r1 @ 5560, next rotation on 30m macro bear unless price sustains above ... 8h sell box @ 5565 - 5570, push to 1d sell box @ 5585 feasible (if not most favorable for shorts)
Should be noted that:
3M sell box tapped @ 5548
and 6M @ 5495
Unless intention is to max out full annual atr to the upside on fumes, a dip from current levels to reinspire demand, before run to 5700's would be choice.
watch for break or sustain @
4h Interim s1 and 30m Macro s1: @ 5547
wkly buy box begins @ 5430
ll on the monthly feasible to 5230 and 5170's with minor extension.
mind the disparity on vol between esm/esu
*vwap for the month of June:
on ESU2024@ 5518
on ES1! @ 5376
4h interim and 30m interim and macro confluent...prime set.
appreciate the risk.
E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ Actionable LevelsE-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5546.25, up 44.00
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 20,192.75, up 247.25
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 5561*, 5577***, 5620.75**, 5762.75***
Pivot: 5542.75-5546.25
Support: 5533.25**, 5518.50-5521.75***, 5498.75-5503***, 5489.75-5492.75***
NQ (September)
Resistance: 20,271**, 20,532***, 21,410***
Pivot: 20,163-20,192
Support: 19,974-20,012**, 19,904-19,946***, 19,732-19,757****
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
ES Day Trading Analysis With Volume ProfileOn ES , it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price of 5515 and 5499.
There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again.
The S/R zone from the past and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade.
Happy trading
Dale
Why Is The SPX So High And Where Will It End Up?The S&P is rallying on longer term continued softer outlook/risk on rhetoric.
The more Investors have confidence, the more they buy. The more they take long holdings, the more the index rallies as a whole.
At some point, as throughout history this ends.
S&Pwhatever this is. S&P deez lines.
i'll chart anything. this is like my freecell or solitaire or sudoku candles up. candles down. x3 each chess. its like chess.
is there a minimum word count for these?
i'm gonna be ___ later if price doesn't at least touch one of these lines
Higher prices are expectedHigher prices are expected in the S&P 500 for Tuesday, June 18 with follow-through from buyers that appeared in the last four sessions.
AMP Futures - How to execute trades using the order ticket.In this video we will demonstrate how to execute trades using the order ticket.
Daily Recap & Small Account Challenge Day 25A recap of today's action, another strong day for bulls. New all time highs for the S&P and Nasdaq, with semis like AVGO leading the way. VX remained fairly strong today in my opinion, still watching it closely to see if it can get back over 14.35 or if it's time for more decay.
Daily REcap ES price Action Review 6-17-24Going over the price action ES for the day. looking back to how we could have traded it better and what to focus on for the next session.
Four Factors Driving Gold Prices Relative to Silver2600 years ago, the Anatolian Kingdom of Lydia minted the world’s first gold and silver coins. In doing so, the Lydian King Alyattes and his successor Croesus introduced the world’s first exchange rate: the gold-silver cross. Like any cross rate, the amount of silver that can be purchased with an ounce of gold is driven by both demand and supply-side factors, and the cross rate is anything other than stable. Sadly, we don’t have the time series of the gold-silver ratio dating back to ancient times, but we do have data going back to the launch of gold futures on December 31, 1974. Since the mid-1970s, one ounce of gold bought anywhere from 17 ounces to as many as 123 ounces of silver (Figure 1).
Figure 1: The amount of silver an ounce of gold can buy has been highly variable
In addition to the impact of monetary policy, which we have covered here, the gold-silver ratio appears to be governed by four other factors:
Relative volatility and the silver beta
Fabrication demand and technological change
Gold’s use as a monetary asset
Supply-side dynamics
Relative volatility and beta
To borrow an expression from the equity markets, silver is the high-beta version of gold. First, silver and gold prices usually have a strong positive correlation. Since 2004 the one-year rolling correlation of their daily price moves has hovered around +0.8 (Figure 2). Second, silver is more volatile than gold. As such, when gold prices move up, silver tends to move up more, thereby lowering the gold-silver price ratio. By contrast, during bear markets, the gold-silver ratio tends to rise.
Figure 2: The correlation of gold and silver price changes has hugged +0.8 since 2004.
For example, when gold and silver prices peaked in September 2011, one ounce of gold bought fewer than 32 ounces of silver (Figure 3). In the ensuing bear market, the ratio rose to as high as 124 ounces of silver per ounce of gold. The ratio snapped back to 64 in 2020 as gold and silver rallied early in the pandemic. In 2024, as both metals have rallied, silver has outperformed, rising 23% in the first five months of the year compared to 12% for the yellow metal.
Figure 3: Positive correlation plus much higher volatility give silver a high beta to gold
Fabrication Demand and the Impact of Technological Change
What is curious is that while gold and silver have rallied thus far in 2024, gold broke to new record highs of nearly $2,500 per ounce whereas silver prices remain 40% below their twin 1980 and 2011 peaks despite having outperformed gold since 2020 (Figure 4). The reason may lie in technological advances.
Figure 4: Gold has hit records in 2024 while silver is still 40% below its 1980 and 2011 record highs
Even before the Lydians minted the first gold and silver coins around 600 BCE, both metals had been used to make jewellery: silver since around 2500 BCE and gold since 4500 BCE. Some things don’t change. Even today, the primary use of both metals is to make jewellery. Yet, thus far this century, silver has been buffeted by two sets of technological developments: the digital revolution and the energy transition. Both have impacted the relative gold-silver ratio.
In 1999, photography used 267.7 million troy ounces of silver which accounted for 36.6% of that year’s total silver supply. By 2023 photography used only 23.2 million ounces of silver or about 2.3% of 2023’s total supply due to the rise of digital photography. Meanwhile, silver’s use in electronics and batteries grew from 90 million ounces to 227.4 million ounces or from 12.3% to 22.7% of silver’s total annual supply, partially offsetting the decline in traditional photography, which may partially explain why silver has struggled to hit new highs in recent years even as gold has set records.
The good news for silver, however, is that it is finding new use in the energy transition. Over the past few years silver has seen strong growth coming from solar panels, which accounted for 20% of 2023 silver demand, up from essentially nothing in 1999 (Figure 5). Solar panels may explain in part why silver has recovered relative to gold since 2020.
Figure 5: Battery and solar panel demand have grown as photography demand has shrunk
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By contrast, gold fabrication demand has shown itself to be immune from recent technological developments and is still overwhelmingly dominated by jewellery demand, with electronics, dental and other uses absorbing just 17% of annual gold mining supply (Figure 6). The differences in silver and gold fabrication demand underscores that gold is considered the purer of the two precious metals.
Figure 6: Gold fabrication demand has remained little changed
Gold and global monetary policy
Indeed, central banks around the world treat gold as money while they largely ignore silver (Figure 7). They hold a combined 36,700 metric tons of gold, the equivalent of 1.2 billion troy ounces or 13 years of global mining output. Moreover, central banks have been net buyers of gold every year since the global financial crisis.
Figure 7: Central banks have been net buyers of gold since the global financial crisis
Central bank buying of gold since 2009 contrasts sharply with their tendency to be net sellers from 1982 to 2007. Central banks’ accumulation of gold suggests that they want a hard asset to complement their foreign exchange reserves of dollars, euros, yen and other fiat currencies, a view that appears to have been reinforced by on-and-off quantitative easing since 2009 and increased use of financial sanctions. Central bank buying impacts gold prices directly, but only boosts silver prices indirectly via the gold market.
The supply side of the equation
Central bank gold buying reduces the amount of gold available to the public. Over the past decade, central bank buying has removed the equivalent of 8%-20% of new mining supply from the gold market each year (Figure 8) which may also explain why the gold-silver ratio rose significantly from 2011 to 2020 and why, even today, it remains at 2x its 2011 level.
Figure 8: Net of central bank buying, gold supply has stagnated since 2003
Total gold supply net of official purchases has stagnated since 2003. Meanwhile, silver mining supply peaked in 2016 and gold mining supply peaked the next year (Figure 9). The fact that new supply is arriving on the market more slowly than in the past may be bullish for both gold and silver.
Figure 9: Gold and silver respond negative to changes in each other’s mining supply.
Our econometric analysis shows that gold and silver prices are negatively correlated with changes to one another’s mining supply. A 1% decrease in gold mining supply, on balance, boosted gold prices by 1.9% and silver by 3.0% from 1974 to 2023. A 1% decease in silver mining supply boosted the prices of the metals by 1.3%-1.6% (Figure 10). Secondary supply appears to respond to price rather than drive it. Higher prices incentivize more recycling, but recycled metal doesn’t appear to depress prices as it doesn’t bring any new metal onto the market.
Figure 10: Secondary supply responds to price rather than drives it
What connects the two markets is jewellery. Because gold is 70x as costlier than silver, when prices rise, demand for gold jewellery falls while silver’s jewellery demand is relatively unresponsive to price because it costs much less. Gold and silver can be seen as a sort of binary star system where the two stars orbit a common center of gravity or barycenter. Gold is the larger, more stable and more influential of the two, but it is by no means immune from silver’s pull.
If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
By Erik Norland, Executive Director and Senior Economist, CME Group
*CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc.
**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
Follow up on the ES1! overextensionAnyone who has read my recent post will have noticed that we are tracking the increasingly over-expansive market in the CME_MINI:ES1! . If the trend is indeed our friend, then prices should remain moving upwards. Which is what I expect will happen. But in order to go into a strong uptrend, first some levels of support must be tested, or else we risk overexpanding even more. At which point, buying would become extremely dangerous. To avoid this risk, it's better to buy at discounted prices and hoping the price does indeed go ballistic. This is much preferable to buy while price is increasing, as many novice traders do due to FOMO.
With a new local maximum in place, we can safely say that a solid support has been created, yet it hasn't been tested. This in combination with the short term MA and the 2nd STD could provide additional support to the area. Making it a safe bet it won't go through. However, if this were to occur, then this would be a sign of a debilitating stock market and could potentially cause a crash. As there is a very large gap between our current supports and the previous ones. Which could lead markets to panic. I don't believe it's time yet, I think we are still missing a strong and not so long-lived final wave before we lose momentum and then crash.
