Daily Price Action: Futures S&P500 Emini ES1! Tuesday 4/15/2025 In this video, we are looking into the potential daily price action of ES1!.
ISP1! trade ideas
Has the S&P 500 bottomed out?A global stock market crash under pressure from the trade war
Since its all-time high last February, the S&P 500 has lost 20%, dragging all global equity markets into a general sell-off. This downward movement concerns not only the United States, but also the MSCI World index, confirming that a global aversion to risk has taken place. And unlike other periods of tension, this time there were no safe havens, except perhaps gold and certain bond segments. All sectors, even defensive ones, were affected.
The source of this intense pressure on the markets? The trade war waged by the Trump administration against over 70 countries, with China leading the retaliatory tariffs. This highly conflicted geopolitical context has rekindled fears of a global economic slowdown, hence the massive flight to liquidity.
The market is hoping for a PIVOT: but which one?
Faced with this situation, only one thing can reverse the trend: a PIVOT. In other words, a major policy change capable of reversing the current dynamics of the financial markets.
Two types of pivot are possible in the spring of 2025: that of the Federal Reserve (the FED) or that of the Trump administration.
The FED's pivot is a monetary reversal. This would involve the central bank lowering interest rates again and halting the reduction of its balance sheet - in other words, injecting more liquidity into the system. In fact, the FED already slowed the reduction of its balance sheet in April, a sign that it may be getting ready to move. Two key dates to watch: May 7 and June 18, the next monetary policy decisions.
But this pivot will depend on two essential conditions: the evolution of inflation and the unemployment rate. If these two variables warrant emergency support, the Fed could initiate the resumption of the federal funds rate cut.
Trump's pivot: tax and trade diplomacy
The other scenario is the Trump pivot. It rests on two pillars: trade diplomacy and fiscal policy. On the trade side, it would involve a return to the negotiating table, with the signing of agreements that would put an end to the spiral of customs sanctions. On the tax side, Trump continues to deploy a very marked pro-business strategy.
Already, his first term (2017-2021) had been marked by a massive reduction in corporate taxes (from 35% to 21%) and tax cuts for households via the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. For this second term, starting in January 2025, Trump proposes to go even further with his “One Big Beautiful Bill” project: perpetuate the 2017 cuts, abolish taxes on tips, overtime, even pensions.
Above all, Trump is considering a 15% corporate tax cut, especially for industries that produce in the United States. This would be a major fiscal shock, which could boost growth expectations and thus... the equity markets.
Spring 2025 is a critical time window. The market can no longer afford to navigate uncertainty without a strong signal. Either the Fed will change its tone, or Trump will bend his economic and trade line. A pivot is essential if the S&P 500 is to validate a major market low.
In terms of technical analysis of the financial markets, the S&P 500 index thus corrected by 20% before recovering last week close to the major technical support of 4800 points.
This major chartist support (see the chart of the S&P 500 future contract attached to this analysis) corresponds to the peak of the equity market at the end of 2021 and the starting point of the bear market in 2022, against the backdrop at the time of the Central Banks' commitment to fighting inflation.
This 4800-point level represents the guarantee of the uptrend initiated at the end of 2022. Note that this horizontal support is underpinned by a graphic uptrend line that joins all major market lows since the stock market shock of the health crisis.
Another factor reinforcing the strength of this support is the quantitative aspect, which describes an extreme oversold technical situation conducive to a low point. The percentage of S&P 500 shares above the 50-day moving average has fallen below 10%, a threshold that has seen market stabilizations for over 15 years.
The S&P 500 chart and the quantitative chart are attached to this analysis.
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S&P Daily RangeA hold above Prior Weekly Close can have us trade towards Prior Week High / Prior Daily Candle gap.
Failure to do so can trade back towards prior Intra-Week highs.
5400 for 5550
#decipherthealgo
April 14th Trade Journal & Market AnalysisApril 14th Trade Journal & Market Analysis
EOD accountability report: +565
Sleep: 6 hour, Overall health: recovering, cant seem to get over 6 hour sleep.
**Daily Trade Recap based on VX Algo System **
9:30 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal (triple sell signal)
9:41 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3
11:02 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
12:20 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal (Triple buy signal)
2:11 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
3:20 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal (triple sell again)
Today traded inside the zone, tested the 10min MA from the other day, held very well and bounced strong.
Bot alerts were on fire today.
Tuesday plan: Look for a backtest to support again on 48 min and push up to the MOB.
ES 3hr UpdateNo idea what this market is doing, it wants the gap fill but can't figure out a way to get there, lol. It did fill the gap up from last night though.
Indicators are neutral, Powell speaks Wed, ECB meeting premarket Thu so I dumped my gold premarket today. Basically a wash trade, I wish I had figured out what was going on sooner. If ECB cuts rates, you'll see the EUro drop, which could cause a drop in gold in US dollars. Also, Euro gapped up last night which scared me, because that gap also needs to fill.
All cash, can't keep up with the news while I'm working. I saw automakers got an exemption though, lol.
We'll see a gap up Thu if ECB cuts rates, so staying cash, not shorting anything. I gotta fly out to WA to get my house ready for sale next week, might just take a break unless I see something.
WIth Trump in office, teh market is bound to go oversold again, might just wait until I sell my house before resuming trading. We'll see.
Neutral environmentThe S&P 500 daily chart structure implies a neutral environment and a sideways move as the market waits for additional tariff announcements this week.
ES/SPY Bottoming Process Gaining More ClarityThe George W Bush pattern still seems to be forming...taking the longer larger and more powerful form. Will the right lower part of the W take place above the lower left side, dead even or below. Certainly sentiment would lead us to believe it will be well below the left side. However, today failed to make a lower low. Selling may resume Sunday night/Monday morning or the double bottom retest may be complete....OR of course we can keep charging significantly lower.
Fibs to Watch For Traps - ES/MESNew fib channels to keep your eyes on for ES and levels I will be eyeing for the next few weeks or so.
ES - Day Trading Analysis With Volume ProfileOn ES , it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price of 5075.00.
There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again.
Uptrend and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade.
Happy trading
Dale
SP500 Weekly Action Areas & Price Targets 14/04/25In this update we review the recent price action in the emini SP500 futures contract and identify high-probability trading opportunities and price targets for the trading week ahead. To review today's video analysis, click here!
AT - Net ProbabilityThe AT Indicator also shows candle-by-candle the evolution of Net Probabilites —i.e., the difference between the probability of a Bullish trend and of a Bearish trend—. It usually helps the trader understand what the most likely direction is, and if the probability is gaining or losing momentum.
Futures Hold Firm—Is This the Floor for the S&P 500?Market Overview:
As inflation data continues to shape rate expectations and earnings season kicks off, traders are watching for signs of whether the recent selling pressure is fading or if volatility has more room to run. In today’s look at the S&P 500 Futures, we’ll break down trend conditions, price behavior, and the key Fibonacci levels that could play a role in where we go from here.
Bearish/Bullish Trend Analysis
Trend Condition:
Bullish Trends: 7
Bearish Trends: 7
Overview: The market is currently split, with 7 bullish and 7 bearish trend lines, reflecting indecision and a possible tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. This balanced trend condition suggests the market is in a potential transition phase rather than clearly trending in one direction.
Price Action and Momentum Zones
Current Price and Change:
Currently, the S&P 500 Futures are at 5,428.50, up by 32.75 points or +0.61%.
Market Behavior: This week’s gain is a modest move higher following a period of downside pressure. It could represent the start of a stabilization attempt, though stronger confirmation is still needed.
Momentum Zones:
The index is holding above the deeper momentum zones, testing resistance near the top of the current bearish swing range. It’s attempting a rebound, but within the broader mixed trend structure.
Fib Retracement Levels
Current Position Relative to Levels:
The current price levels are just above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Key Fibonacci Levels:
23.6% → 5,537.68
38.2% → 5,148.66
50.0% → 4,834.25
61.8% → 4,519.84
Analysis: Remaining above the 38.2% retracement level is important. This level often acts as a support zone in a broader uptrend, especially during corrective pullbacks. If price can stay above this level, it would suggest some stabilization is taking place and may invite more bullish momentum.
Overall Market Interpretation
The current positive movement doesn’t drastically change the mixed market picture. The market is still in a state of indecision, with neither bulls nor bears clearly in control. Holding above the 38.2% Fibonacci level, however, could be an early sign of strength and a possible short-term pivot higher.
Summary
The S&P 500 Futures are showing moderate strength to start the week, though the broader sentiment remains mixed. The move back above the 38.2% Fibonacci level is a key development, acting as support in what may become a base for recovery. It’s still too early to call a reversal, but this level will be important to watch as traders gauge whether the market can firm up or continue to drift lower.
Weekly Market Forecast: Stocks Markets Could Push Higher!In this video, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and DOW JONES futures for the week of April 14-18th.
The Stock Market Indices ended a turbulent week on a bullish note, and next week could see some continuation. The markets have peeked above the consolidation, and could be on the way to resume the overall bullish trend.
Wait for confirmations of the trend before jumping in! One bad report of tariffs or geo-political news can turn the markets down at any time.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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ES-DailyLevels-14042025-30mThose are daily levels to watch for 14042025, short and long 30m. Supply and demand zones
ES-DailyLevels-14042025Those are daily leveles to watch for 14042025, short and long. Supply and demand zones
## ES (S&P 500) Futures Analysis
### **Current Situation**
1. **Price**: The ES futures contract (ESM2025) is currently at 5,391.25, up +89.25 (+1.68%) today.
2. **EMA**:
- EMA 5,749.80 is above the current price, indicating potential resistance.
- EMA 5,639.12 is also above the current price.
3. **RSI**: The Relative Strength Index is at 43.96, suggesting the market is neither overbought nor oversold.
### **Technical Analysis**
#### **Elliott Wave Theory**
- The chart suggests the completion of a 5-wave upward move, labeled (1) through (5).
- Currently, it seems the market might be undergoing a corrective phase.
#### **EMA Analysis**
- **EMA 5,749.80**: This EMA level might act as significant resistance.
- **EMA 5,639.12**: Like the other EMA, it presents resistance.
#### **RSI Divergence**
- The chart marks "Bear" zones. The RSI reading of 43.96 doesn't confirm oversold conditions, but it's approaching that area.
### **Recommendations for Traders**
1. **Short-Term Strategy**:
- Watch for resistance around the 5,640 level (EMA 5,639.12). A failure to break above this level could signal a continuation of the downward correction.
- If the price breaks above 5,640, it could test the higher EMA around 5,750.
2. **Medium-Term Strategy**:
- Be cautious about the potential for a deeper correction following the completion of the 5-wave pattern.
- Key support levels to watch include prior wave 4.
3. **Levels to Watch**:
- Resistance: 5,639.12 and 5,749.80.
- Support: Prior wave 4.
### **Conclusion**
The ES futures appear to be in a corrective phase after completing an upward 5-wave pattern. Traders should watch key resistance levels and be aware of the potential for further downside. A break above the EMAs could signal a continuation of the uptrend.
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Answer from Perplexity: www.perplexity.ai
Buyers entered the S&P 500 on FridayStructurally in the S&P 500 daily chart it appears that buyers entered the market on Friday but it is in a tenuous situation because all it will take will be a comment, a negotiated deal or some other tariff situation that can create tremendous volatility for this market. If those fundamentals do not occur the expectation would be a firmer S&P 500 starting in the Asia session Sunday night at 5 o'clock Chicago time.
April 11th Trade Journal & Market AnalysisApril 11th Trade Journal & Market Analysis
EOD accountability report: +1566.50
Sleep: 6 hour, Overall health: going thru Flu symptoms
**Daily Trade Recap based on VX Algo System **
12:08 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
1:00 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal (2x Signal)
Today was a very choppy for the early part of the day, tested pre market lows and almost broke it because of consumer sentiment.
We eventually bounce and started moving upward toward the 5 min and 10 min resistance , and eventually broke out with the market structure flipping bullish at 12:08, we went back for a 1 min MOB backtest and pushed up further.
Monday plan; look for back to support as noted on the video
BIG BIG weekI think 7 FED speakers,
A lot of tension in the markets, tops mean polarisation, considering reflexivity theory extreme volatility will ensue.
A lot of people might think the -0.786 ATH we got before the holidays is the top. I think they are mistaken as seen in the analysis below.
There is still legroom for higher, this is a big bet on my part.
I have a few contracts on the mag7 (GOOGL, TSLA and META) focusing on GOOGL since they seem to be in the same headwind as S&P
Let's see how this plays out
A good opportunity to buy the S&P with a target at 5700 and highThe price is tightening—an upward breakout is possible.
Use a tight stop. It’ll either take off or it won’t.
ES Premarket Update3hr MFI is headed quickly to oversold, and the dollar index is bouncing back a little. FUtures are also green.
I expect the market to bounce up when MFI gets oversold, so possibly a gap up which sells off then market goes back up?
Gold trade is on hold until currency direction is determined. The dollar will eventually break though, so holding the small position I bought yesterday morning..... that way I'll watch gold. We'll see where that goes....
US dollar is oversold on 3hr and daily charts, so there's a chance it will bounce back up.... or maybe it just goes into full tank mode and ignores indicators. Hard market to judge.
