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Intel | Fundamental Analysis | Must Read...The reporting period always attracts the attention of investors and can guide a company's stock to meaningful changes. Now that the season is here, many organizations find themselves either winning or losing. A temporary loser was Intel, whose stock fell on Friday following the release of its Q3 results on Oct. 21. Investors sold their shares as the company failed to meet forecasts in several directions. Nevertheless, while Intel is having to overcome significant challenges, the report also shows signs that could eventually bring investors back to the company's stock. For the first nine months of 2021, the revenue of $58.5 billion was up about 1 percent from the same period in 2020. During that time, net income increased 1% to just over $15.2 billion. Against this slow growth, however, third-quarter numbers point to a 5% year-over-year increase in revenue and a 60% increase in net income over the same period. Unfortunately for Intel, most of that net income came from stock investments. In addition, Intel's earnings forecast for 2021 assumes annual non-GAAP revenue of $73.5 billion, down 5% from 2020. Although analysts had expected a lower figure, given the temporary increase in pandemic revenue in 2020, the news disappointed investors, and the company's stock fell 12% the next day. Investors also didn't like the news that gross margins would be "below current levels." While it is too early to tell if this period is the beginning of Intel's recovery, the decline in gross margins could pay off for the company later. Gross margins will fall, not because of performance, but because Intel has developed a plan to make a belated move -- to invest in itself. To that end, Intel has altered its focus under the new CEO. The company will spend $20 billion to build two new factories in Arizona. These factories will compete with companies such as Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) and privately held GlobalFoundries, as the company wants to produce chips for companies without factories. The company also plans to develop 7-nm chips, which could be a major challenge for TSMC as Intel seeks to regain its leadership position in the industry. Still, such moves could prove challenging for investors. Intel has been trying to develop a chip smaller than 14nm for years. By the time it launched its 10nm chip, rival Advanced Micro Devices had already been selling a 7nm chip for several years. Still, AMD's comeback story may give hope to Intel bulls. When Lisa Su became AMD's CEO in 2014, she used the chip development cycle to ensure the company's return and eventual technical leadership. In the same way, Intel CEO used his engineering expertise to spur Intel's technical comeback. However, chip development cycles take three to five years. Even if Intel eventually succeeds, there will be years of uncertainty for Intel stockholders to figure out whether Intel can match or surpass TSMC. Although little attention has been paid to dividend payouts, they may be of interest to income-oriented investors. Since 2004, the annual payout has increased every year but one. In addition, the dividend has increased every year for the past four years. The current annual payout of $1.39 per share yields about 2.8% at the current share price, more than double the S&P 500 average of 1.3%. Since dividends have been growing at about 5 percent a year in recent years, they are roughly in line with current inflation growth, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor. This could make the stock more attractive to income investors, providing them with stable funds in anticipation of earnings. Right now, investors can buy stocks at a low price. Intel's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is now about 10. That's well below TSMC's earnings ratio of 31, and well below the dividend ratio of another US stronghold and factory operator, Texas Instruments, with 26 times earnings. Of course, given Intel's dormant revenue growth in recent years, 10 might seem like a fair P/E ratio. But if the company moves into manufacturing chips for customers and manages to catch up with TSMC in terms of technology, investors would probably find that earnings estimate a bargain. As for whether Intel could come back, the answer is probably. While the low P/E ratio and rising dividend yield will be attractive to some, the company's prospects for success remain uncertain. In this situation, Intel stock has no obvious catalyst for growth. Moreover, while the pandemic has led to higher hardware spending in 2020, the projected revenue decline in 2021 offers little comfort to investors expecting signs of success. Shareholders who buy Intel now may get little return other than dividends for the foreseeable future. However, if the company can build a successful foundry business and challenge TSMC technologically, it could generate huge dividend income over time.
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NASDAQ:INTCShort
by FOREXN1
63
Intel Corporation (INTC) Analysis & What I Will DoNASDAQ:INTC looks like it will retrace to an old support level around the $44 mark. If it finds support there and gets rejected, I expect the price to move higher, to the $50 area, possible more. Long term: bullish bias Short term: bearish bias (I would not take a short trade however) Personally, I will wait for NASDAQ:INTC to confirm the bullish bias and go long at that point. I will post an update later. Keep in mind that there has been a lot of insider buying done on this stock, this week. However, insiders aren't always best at timing the entries as they generally invest for the long term. If we wait a bit more I think we can get a better entry price. There is also a chip shortage right now so short-term it will probably drive the price down even further. Good luck, Your Ganbu ⚠️ Let me know your feedback and comments below! ⚠️ Follow me if you would like to see more analysis like this
NASDAQ:INTC
by Ganbu
4
Intel - probably higher by year-endToday's earnings news will be digested by middle of next week. But we'll still be talking about semiconductor shortages for months to come. I wanted to slow it down by looking at the monthly chart with a long-term linear regression channel. Intel might be a bit oversold here. Monthly chart not a great way to view stock movement relative to earnings, though. Didn't Intel just announce two new chip factories in Arizona? Didn't they make an offer to buy Global Foundries? Will an investor (or trader) receive more value from buying the Global Foundries IPO or from bottom fishing Intel near-term?
NASDAQ:INTCLong
by goledger
The critical importance of time frames INTC exampleAs in life, the questions you ask will determine the answers you get when it comes to trading. We live in an age of "instantism" - we have been conditioned to believe that faster is better – faster price executions, faster trading, faster feedback, faster news, faster food, faster everything! And this need for speed has been translated into trading. I know whereof I speak since as recently as 8 years ago the vast majority of my trading was day trading. But I no longer believe that day trading is viable for most people unless they trade large positions for very predictable small moves. That's what high-frequency trading is all about. I have no need or interest in a 10 second chart. But that is of course personal preference. As an example of what I'm referring to take the current situation in Intel as shown in chart form above. The moving average channel method that I developed many years ago clearly shows the trend has been consistently higher with support coming at or slightly below the moving average channel monthly chart per the methodology. As a long-term trader or investor, I see an opportunity to buy at support. The trader who has been looking at the daily chart has been short. Can both points of view be correct? Absolutely! The short-term trader using the moving average channel methodology has been short. Profit targets have been achieved. The long-term trader or investor using the monthly chart has now switched into "look for a buying opportunity" mode and can switch to a daily chart for timing. RBT NOTE: the two indicators in the chart above are a 10 period Simple moving average of the high, an 8 period Simple moving average of the low. The lower indicator is Williams accumulation distribution and a 57 Simple moving average of Williams.
NASDAQ:INTC
by rulesbasedtrader
Intel buyIntel made a higher high but then pullback hard to make aa downtrend. That pull back downtrend finally broke with a bullish strong engulfing candle all being on the weekly timeframe. The high push hit the .618 fib level on the break of the downtrend pull back. Price is currently sitting along a weekly uptrend as well. Broke out of consolidation on the daily timeframe. entry price I'm looking for 55 & exit point would be around 75 And stop loss would be 47
NASDAQ:INTCLong
by derrickloza123
4
INTC - Provides Intel on the State of Affairs in MANUAfter a run ahead of EPS, the 46.07 ended up another Ghost in the ALGO Machine. EPS for Intel, another Disasater after FAB MANU ASML's ugliness, Lucky for ASML the Dippers were all too anxious to Bid it back up erasing 1/2 its losses from 805. Earnings Season has added more complexity to the Mix. NQ made a run for the top of the Range @ 15513/17 - only to unload to its Prior close by ZERO. It gave back all the gains on INTC... all of them. These are the challenges to EPS, volatile and setting up for the unseemly news from Chips. Today's Intel Dip buyers were dunked to the 52.50 Level on the DOM, the scene of prior High Crimes and Felonies. As Semi's continue to report, they will continue to reveal Q3 was indeed a disaster, lots of Fudge, no Walnuts. Today's EPS was TECH heavy, tomorrow is Freaky Friday - the most overused Day of the Week to Crush the VX Complex. With the 400 Ticks of CF ahead, it will, no doubt be challenging. Trade Safe, it is very dangerous at present. Timeframes are in Conflict, complete conflict. Weeks end will begin to resolve this when we see where the Weekly Candle closes. Last Week's close = 15134.50.
NASDAQ:INTC
by HK_L61
2
Intel | Fundamental AnalysisIntel will have another chance to breathe life into its dropping stock when it reports its third-quarter results on Thursday, Oct. 21. The chip giant's stock has lagged the broader market this year, though it started brightly, as problems in the personal computer and data center business intensified due to stiff competition from companies like Advanced Micro Devices. Let's take a look at what we can expect from Intel's upcoming quarterly report and decide if the company can show strong enough results and outlook to tilt investor sentiment in its favor. Intel's second-quarter results, released in July, were better than expected. The company's adjusted earnings of $1.28 per share rose 12% year-over-year and easily beat Wall Street's forecast of $1.06 per share. The company's earnings were up 2% from a year earlier to $18.5 billion. Moreover, the corporation also upgraded its full-year earnings by $1 billion to $73.5 billion and raised its earnings per share forecast by $0.20 to $4.80 per share. But that wasn't enough to change investor sentiment, because a closer look reveals that competition is becoming a real thorn in the chipmaker's side. For example, the company expects the third-quarter adjusted gross margin to be 55%, a significant drop from 59.2% in the second quarter. At the same time, Intel's data center group revenue fell 9% year over year to $6.5 billion as both shipments and average purchase prices declined. A 6% year-over-year increase in client computing group revenue to $10.1 billion was accompanied by a drop in notebook and desktop processor prices. More specifically, notebook ASP prices were down 17% year-over-year and desktop ASP prices were down 5% - the result of Intel's strategy to lower its processor prices in order to sell more units. Thus, Intel needs not only to show good results but also to demonstrate that it can again stand up to AMD, gaining more and more market share. Intel's full-year forecast, however, does not indicate that this will be the case. The company's fourth-quarter revenue is forecasted to fall 8.6 percent year over year to $18.25 billion, and earnings are expected to fall to $1.01 per share from $1.52 per share a year ago. By comparison, Intel may do much better in the third quarter, with revenue and earnings expected to be flat year-over-year. All of this designates that Intel stock may lag the broad market for the rest of the year. But investors shouldn't lose sight of the fact that some favorable factors on the horizon could breathe life into the stock in 2022 and beyond. Wall Street expects Intel's sales to decline to slow in 2022 and its earnings to remain at 2021 levels. In 2023, analysts expect Intel to regain its momentum and increase earnings slightly. However, don't be surprised if Intel changes its fortunes sooner, as the company intends to step up its product development game. According to the company's development plan, it will move to a 7-nanometer manufacturing process in the second half of 2022. The smaller node size suggests Intel's chips will become more competitive. This is because the transistors in a chip made using a smaller node are more tightly packed together, resulting in better performance and greater efficiency. The company promises a 20 percent improvement in performance per watt over current-generation chips when it releases processors based on the 7-nm process technology, codenamed Intel 4. Then, in the second half of 2023, Intel plans to release an advanced version of its 7nm chips, which it claims could be 18% more powerful than Intel 4 chips. That will be followed by the Intel 20A architecture in 2024 when the company is expected to produce chips based on the 5-nm node. All of this suggests that Intel is on its way to consistently improve its manufacturing process, which should help it bridge the technology gap with AMD. So Intel may eventually regain its spirit and become a profitable investment, but investors will have to wait patiently for this turnaround, as it may take some time. The good thing is that patient investors willing to bet on Intel's transformation can buy this technology company's stock at just 12 times its forward earnings, which could prove to be a good deal in the long run as its fortunes begin to rise.
NASDAQ:INTCLong
by FOREXN1
2