Time Cycle and GannThis is my first chart and hopeful it makes sense. Its just my interpretation of Lowe's cycle and Gann's fan. This is my first chart so good luck!
LOWC34 trade ideas
time cycle and gann's fanBased off the time cycle and Gann's fan Lowe's should be above 82$ come December 1st.... Also this is my first chart ever :)
Lowes Stock (Trend line entry, long) Looks like it should obey trend line structure and go long. Hoping to hit $90+ by years end! Now looks like the time to buy while its at the trend line. I don't think we should really worry about the elephant in the room (AMAZON) yet, but definitely something to watch.
LOW might break down below supportLOW is a good watch for the 75.85 break. It is coming out of a triangle and what looks like a mini head and shoulders pattern.
Will The Bears Viciously Attack Lowe's Again?Lowe's is setting up to repeat previous large declines after its most recent earnings call. The stock has been in a bullish trend since 2015. The stock has cycled in tight channels up and down throughout this bullish run. Currently Lowe's just repeated movement that has resulted in a two quick 13% drops. Near-term downward movement is outlined below.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 30.2113. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is near oversold levels. This indicator does contradict my projected movement, however, both previous similar pattern instances kept the RSI hovering around oversold levels during the course of their drops.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently 1.8606. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The TSI is pointing down. More importantly the 50 day moving average on the TSI has begun to trend down. This exact same thing happened the last two times the stock gave up 13%.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 0.7017 and the negative is at 1.1622. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. Currently the stock is dropping per the trend and position of these indicators.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 23.1291 and D value is 22.7512. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The current signal has the stock flirting with oversold. Similar to the RSI on the last two drops of 13%, the stochastic hovered around oversold territory for a while. This scenario could be repeated this time as well.
During the bull trend, the stock has cycled up and down. When the stock breaks down from its upcycle trend, the stock has dropped 13%. This occurred in early 2016 and again in August of 2016. Both drops occurred within 25 trading days. On May 24, the stock broke down from its recent uptrend. A 13% drop would take the stock down to 69.85. A fairly likely drop could bring the stock down to at least 75.50 in the near-term.
Considering the RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the downside. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop at least 4% over the next 34 trading days if not sooner.
LOW - Upward channel breakdown short if weakness after earningsLOW seems running within a wide upward channel, and at this time coming down from Upper channel line. We have earnings for it tomorrow, so we would like to see how it reacts. However if it shows weakness after earnings, we will consider for a short entry.
* Trade Criteria *
Date First Found- May 23, 2017
Pattern/Why- Upward channel formation with Earnings ahead.
Entry Target Criteria- show weakness after Gapping up to $86.00 or $83.23, or Break of $81.87
Exit Target Criteria- $68.16
Stop Loss Criteria- $87.26
Please check back for Trade updates. (Note: Trade update is little delayed here.)
LOW - Caution Potential TOPMultiple Signals of a potential TOP from my dTFIs on the WEEKLY chart
Caution...
Lowes - testing the top of triangle within 7 test of consol box68 Seemed a fair market price for Lowes - Looking to potentially enter LT long on this dividend payer if we see a 8th test of the consolidation box.
Notice the triangle test along the 7th hit of the consolidation box - strong moves tend to come after years of consolidation and Lowes price could be setting up to make the top of the triangle broadening formation support.
LOW - Potential short trade, looking for Put option playLOW seems forming a head & shoulder formation & shaping up nicely for a short trade.
To trade this we would consider $72.50 / 70 Jun/July Puts.
You can check detailed analysis on LOW in the trading room/ Executive summary link here-
www.screencast.com (Available to subscribers)
Time Span- 43:40"
Trade Status: Pending
LOW- Getting any lower? Maybe not that much. I am not long yet but here's my game plan for Lowe.
I have to humbly admit that I was in Lowe when if popped to $76 with some calls... but I rode the fade until I had a small loss ;-) From a significant gain to a small loss. Hats off to the faders on this one ;-)
I was pretty new at this game and I did lose some easy profits like this in the last few months (nailed some good pops as well.) Fortunately, I now have a game plan for those situations.
I am realizing that huge runs like $TECK and $PLCE are not as common as I would like to see them.
Got to bag those fast easy profits and move on... If I have several contracts / share, let a few run just in case as it does suck when you realize that you could have made 1200% on a call instead of 200-300%. It happened to me with $PLCE last summer.
What do we have here? Lowe is clearly not in the same league that HD, this is common knowledge but this does not mean that we can't make a buck with it if we have some wind in our back.
There is some decent support between $71 and $69.35 or so. The fat horizontal red line is the POC... but it will move depending on how wide is your chart. The stock is also sitting on the blue Option Levels. Finally the Pink zone at the bottom is a fib level. It's easy to see based on the colors that price responded to the fibs pretty well. Just for the record, I am not a Fibs nuts. I am neutral about them. Many guys laugh at them but the bottom line is that many algos use them and that makes them "true." Just like floor pivots and other levels. Markets are sliced a million ways and Fibs are one of them.
Finally, the RSI below has not touched 40 yet... this is why I would not be surprised to see LOWE maybe drop a bit into the yellow zone where I drew a wiggly red line. If you got back on your own charts with the RSI you will see that Lowe (like so many stocks) likes to touch 40 on the RSI before bouncing. If it slices down through 40, be careful.
Up to you but personally I won't get in $LOW before it closes (end of day) above the diagonal red line going down from the recent top. Basically where the X is. Decent volume would be nice.
The market is bit tricky right now with the new year coming, the Russia-Obama tension and Trump taking over so I am not jumping ahead of the train on this one. I want to see some buying at support first. and price above $71.12 as a minimum.
