M2ST34 trade ideas
Navigating MicroStrategy's Future
MicroStrategy Inc (NASDAQ:$ MSTR), a key player in enterprise analytics and mobility software, recently caught the attention of investors with the news of Executive Chairman and 10% Owner Michael Saylor selling 5,000 shares on January 25, 2024. This move adds to a series of sales totaling 85,000 shares over the past year, without any corresponding insider purchases. This article delves into the implications of these insider transactions, examines the company's overall performance, and analyzes technical indicators to provide investors with a comprehensive outlook.
Insider Selling Patterns:
Insider transactions often serve as valuable signals for investors trying to gauge the health and confidence of a company's leadership. Michael Saylor's consistent selling over the past year raises questions about the motives behind the divestitures. Investors should closely monitor such patterns, as they can sometimes provide insight into the leadership's perception of the company's future prospects.
Company Overview:
MicroStrategy Inc has carved a niche for itself in the enterprise analytics and mobility software sector. The company's offerings, including MicroStrategy Analytics, MicroStrategy Mobile, and Usher, enable organizations to analyze vast amounts of data, deliver actionable insights, and provide digital credential and identity intelligence solutions.
Technical Analysis:
MicroStrategy's stock has been on an upward trajectory within a rising trend channel in the medium to long term. This suggests sustained investor confidence, with shares consistently being bought at higher prices. The recent positive signal from the inverse head and shoulders formation, marked by a break above the resistance at 321, adds another layer of optimism. Analysts anticipate a further rise, with a target set at 691 or beyond.
However, the stock is currently approaching a critical support level at $460. This level is expected to trigger a positive reaction, providing a potential buying opportunity. Investors should closely monitor whether the stock can hold above this support, as a break below could signal a negative trend reversal.
Conclusion:
MicroStrategy Inc's ( NASDAQ:MSTR ) recent insider selling, technical indicators, and overall market sentiment present a mixed picture for investors. While the insider selling may raise concerns, the positive technical signals and the company's strong position in the enterprise software space suggest a nuanced evaluation is necessary.
MicrostrategyMicrostrategy is one of the few stocks with a positive correlation to Bitcoin and it can be an alternative investment for those who cannot own bitcoin due to regulatory reasons. However, the introduction of Bitcoin ETF has the potential to cause a capital migration from Microstrategy to Bitcoin ETFs as investors look for the next big thing with the potential of higher returns.
Bitcoin ETFs have disappointed investors as they lost over 10% since their launch. This was because Bitcoin spot investors sold the news since the ETF hype was already priced in.
If Bitcoin falls to $40,000, we assume that Microstrategy shares will be within out 1st entry range or at the 120 Months moving average.
We are monitoring the stock for our first entry.
Michael Saylor Sells 5,000 $MSTR Stocks For Investing Into $BTCBetween January 2 and January 10, Saylor sold 3,882 to 5,000 NASDAQ:MSTR shares in accordance with the SEC's announcement.
Leading up to the recent approval by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of exchange-traded funds directly investing in Bitcoin, Michael Saylor, the co-founder of MicroStrategy Inc., participated in a series of share sales.
MicroStrategy Sells NASDAQ:MSTR Just Before ETF Approval
According to data compiled by Bloomberg, Saylor sold between 3,882 and 5,000 shares on specific days from January 2 to January 10, coinciding with the SEC’s announcement. The transactions are estimated to have yielded Saylor over $20 million, marking the first instance of him selling company shares in nearly 12 years. This development comes as the company already sold $216 million worth of NASDAQ:MSTR stock last week.
A spokesperson for MicroStrategy has verified the recent share sales by Michael Saylor, clarifying that these transactions are part of a pre-existing plan disclosed in a filing last year. The spokesperson emphasized that these sales are unrelated to the recent approvals of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The planned sales, involving up to 5,000 shares daily, are scheduled between January 2, 2024, and April 26, 2024, with the intention of selling a total of as much as 400,000 shares during this period.
MicroStrategy, a leading business intelligence firm with substantial Bitcoin holdings, weathered significant losses during the previous crypto winter. The company had to undertake substantial write-offs due to the market downturn at that time.
However, in a remarkable turn of events, MicroStrategy’s current Bitcoin holdings have surged in value to approximately $8.3 billion. This represents a notable paper gain of around 40%, underscoring the company’s resilience and recovery in the crypto market.
NASDAQ:MSTR Stock Under Pressure
MicroStrategy, a prominent player in the business intelligence sector, has witnessed a 23% decline in its stock since the beginning of the year. The drop is attributed, in part, to concerns arising from the debut of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that could potentially diminish the appeal of the company’s shares as investments.
MicroStrategy, headquartered in Tysons Corner, Va., has long been regarded as a proxy for Bitcoin, given its substantial holdings of the cryptocurrency on its balance sheet for several years. Prior to the recent approval of a dozen spot Bitcoin ETFs by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), MicroStrategy was a primary avenue for investors seeking indirect exposure to Bitcoin. The emergence of alternative options through ETFs has introduced new dynamics to the market.
However, MicroStrategy chief Michael Saylor stated that the spot Bitcoin ETF launch won’t negatively impact the MicroStrategy stock price.
The crypto stocks are weakeningMost of the crypto companies, MARA, RIOT, BLOK, MSTR are weakening. Trend changing to neutral from bullish. Vixfix turning and moving upwards
MSTR/BTCThe popular perception that Microstrategy MSTR is outperforming GBTC is wrong.
Both are going up in step.
📊 Powerful Bullish Signals | MicroStrategy IncorporatedClassic yet power signals... Let's dive in.
Another Cryptocurrency stock, which is the only reason why you are seeing/reading this analysis here... We focus mainly on Cryptocurrency.
MicroStrategy (MSTR) is long-term bullish and just now support is being confirmed short-term, proving that a new move/bullish resumption can happen anytime.
Let's start with the long-term signals, MSTR has been producing higher lows long-term.
December 2022 (higher low) vs March 2020.
The action between August 2022 and June 2023 forms the cup of a classic cup and handle pattern and also the break and confirmation of EMA50 as resistance which makes this pair bullish long-term (we are looking at the weekly timeframe).
The correction from July through present time forms the handle of the classic cup and handle pattern or simply a small falling wedge. This is all happening above EMA50, confirming this once resistance level now as support.
Since MSTR has been trading above EMA50 for an entire month, always closing above, we can soon expect the resumption of the bullish trend.
We are looking at targets such as 684 and the mid-700s short-term, with much more possible in the long-term.
Everything is pointing up.
Even with fluctuations/price swings in the short-term, nothing changes...
Expect massive bullish in 2024 as we saw in 2020.
Namaste.
💾 MicroStrategy Set To Grow Like There's No TomorrowI love the "Community trends" on the front page... TradingView is great.
With this new feature I can see stocks/assets that I would never think of looking at otherwise.
Here we have MicroStrategy, MSTR.
I know about Mr. Michael Saylor as he is a huge Bitcoin fan like most of us.
He also wrote the foreword for the best selling Bitcoin book ever and it was nice to see his opinion about this game we now have been playing for so long.
MicroStrategy is set to grow like there is no tomorrow...
At least that's the message that I am getting from this chart.
I am using the weekly timeframe because long-term gives you a better perspective, short-term there is always too much "noise".
The first thing to look at is the broader cycle and that's the All-Time High, February 2021, almost two years have gone by since this level was hit.
The first thing that caught my attention is the current consolidation pattern and how the bulls are already showing up and strong.
This weekly candle is already trading above EMA21 and EMA10... There is a strong bullish divergence on the RSI since May 2022.
Also, the low in December 2022 came in higher than May, a higher low...
These signals put together make a strong case for bullish growth.
I write these signals for you... But what catches my attention from the go is this sort of "M" pattern, bullish bat, gartley, etc. too many names it has...
This pattern is like a falling wedge in the sense that it has a very high level of accuracy.
It is a bullish pattern of course and once it shows up... The chart tends to shoot up.
You can find the resistance levels marked on the chart (light green) and blue for support.
Namaste.
💾 MicroStrategy Has More To Give!In the past, now many years ago, we would have the "wait for the confirmation" crowd which turned into "wait for the earnings"...
MicroStrategy (MSTR) is trading below EMA50 weekly.
Is this a bearish or bullish signal?
Should we "wait for confirmation"?
Meaning, wait for it to break and close above EMA50 before taking action!
In a way yes, this can be done and there are many different ways to approach a trade, a market... Different trading systems and strategies, so it isn't a bad thing but, with a wider perspective, with so many tools, with so many charts, confirmation can be gotten for other places.
The markets evolve and we have to also evolve and adapt.
Each year, each cycle it becomes harder and harder, the bots become smarter and the risk increases...
Anyway, knowing what we know and seeing the other charts/pairs/stocks already going ahead... The market is interrelated/linked/connected, so we know this chart will do the same.
The confirmation already happened with the strong RSI and the close above EMA10.
We can always wait for the next confirmation...
Or we can buy at the bottom (see 'Related ideas') and ride up the full bullish wave.
Check the "first (main target - high probability)" on the chart.
Instead of waiting for confirmation, you can use a tight stop-loss.
Namaste.
Bitcoin Investment and ETF Anticipation Drive MicroStrategy Inc
In the fast-paced world of finance, few companies have captured the attention of investors quite like MicroStrategy. Renowned for its significant Bitcoin holdings, the tech giant has recently witnessed a remarkable surge in its stock value. We delve into the factors driving MicroStrategy's recent success, including its strategic Bitcoin investments and the growing anticipation surrounding the approval of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs.
MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Bonanza:
MicroStrategy's ascent to new heights can be attributed, in no small part, to its bold and strategic Bitcoin acquisitions. The company recently announced the addition of a staggering 14,620 Bitcoins to its already substantial holdings. These acquisitions, conducted between November 30 and December 26, bring MicroStrategy's total Bitcoin possession to an impressive 189,150, valued at approximately $8.7 billion at current prices.
What sets MicroStrategy apart is not just the scale of its Bitcoin holdings but the timing and astuteness of its investments. Having purchased its Bitcoin at an average price of $31,168, the company's bold move is currently showing a paper gain of $2.8 billion. This demonstrates MicroStrategy's foresight and ability to navigate the volatile cryptocurrency market with remarkable precision.
Bitcoin ETF Anticipation:
A significant catalyst behind MicroStrategy's recent stock surge is the growing anticipation surrounding the approval of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. As the cryptocurrency market evolves, the approval of these ETFs is expected to simplify the investment process in Bitcoin, offering easier regulation and heightened appeal to investors. This positive sentiment has not only boosted MicroStrategy's stock but has also contributed to the overall uptick in Bitcoin's value, currently trading at $45,320.22 with a 7% increase in the last 24 hours.
MicroStrategy's Role in ETF Custodianship:
MicroStrategy's strategic positioning in the Bitcoin ETF landscape further solidifies its standing in the market. The company has been selected by prominent entities such as BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, and Grayscale to provide custodial services for their upcoming spot Bitcoin ETFs. This not only reflects the industry's trust in MicroStrategy's capabilities but also positions the company as a key player in facilitating the broader adoption of Bitcoin investment instruments.
Company Preparedness for ETF Approval:
A spokesperson from MicroStrategy expressed the company's preparedness for the potential approval of Bitcoin ETFs, highlighting their systems' capability to handle the anticipated increase in trading volume and demand. This level of readiness underscores MicroStrategy's commitment to navigating the evolving landscape of cryptocurrency investments and its dedication to providing reliable services to its clients and partners.
Conclusion
MicroStrategy's recent stock surge is a testament to its strategic prowess in the cryptocurrency space. With a substantial Bitcoin portfolio and a pivotal role in facilitating upcoming ETFs, the company stands poised for continued success. As the world watches the evolution of the cryptocurrency market, MicroStrategy's journey serves as a compelling narrative of innovation, foresight, and adaptability in the dynamic realm of digital assets.
MicroStrategy Buys $615 Million Worth of Bitcoin, $50,000 Soon?With the recent purchase, MicroStrategy's total Bitcoin worth on balance sheet has reached a staggering $6 billion.
As the Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) price managed to contain its losses to $42,00 after a sell-off earlier today, big players are making the most of the dip. In the latest announcement, MicroStrategy Chairman Michael Saylor declared that his firm has made a fresh purchase of $615 million worth of Bitcoins.
MicroStrategy Buys 14,000+ Bitcoins
In a recent announcement, MicroStrategy Chairman Michael Saylor revealed the acquisition of an additional 14,620 BTC for approximately $615.7 million. The average purchase price per Bitcoin stood at $42,110. As of December 26, 2023, MicroStrategy’s total Bitcoin holdings reached 189,150 BTC, acquired for around $5.9 billion. The average cost per Bitcoin in this extensive holding stands at $31,168. This move reaffirms MicroStrategy’s commitment to Bitcoin as a strategic part of its treasury reserve.
Everyone in the crypto community is awaiting the launch of the first spot Bitcoin ETF in the US. As per the tentative schedule, this shall happen by January 10 i.e. within a fortnight.
When asked about the potential negative impact of an ETF launch on MSTR, Saylor asserted that MicroStrategy stands apart due to its status as an operating company, unlike ETFs that are unleveraged and charge fees.
He underscored MicroStrategy’s ability to generate additional BTC through profit and loss (P&L) or capital markets operations. Using an analogy, Saylor likened MicroStrategy to an airline, highlighting its unique position compared to ETFs, which he compared to shipping lines. In essence, he suggested that MicroStrategy offers higher performance and leverage without associated fees.
BTC Price to $50,000?
The Bitcoin price has recovered to $43,000 at press time after facing a major drop earlier today. Currently, Bitcoin has been oscillating in the tight range of $42,000-$44,000. Breaking the upper resistance, the BTC price could make a move into the zone of $47,000-$50,000.
MicroStrategy: Volume confirming price action in current trendMicroStrategy MSTR
Elliott Wave Analysis (A) (B) (C) correction is completed and the next trend has started and is being confirmed with Elliott Wave Impulse waves which in turn is being confirmed via the volume.
The lines on the chart are the TradingLevels concept.
MSTR flowthis is how I think MSTR is going to play out, bought shares today and ill dca in. im aiming for a 100% return
Possible path for MSTRLike CRYPTOCAP:BTC , NASDAQ:MSTR is squeezing against 2 levels of support/resistance. Here is a possible price action path MSTR could follow in the near term.
MSTR vs BTC?MSTR vs BTC?
For some dumb reason MSTR is up +235% in 1 year while BTC is up +167%. That's a wide discrepancy in valuation. As of November 30, 2023 MicroStrategy owns 174,530 bitcoins. MicroStrategy states the average purchase price is $30,252 USD per bitcoin with a total cost of $5.28b USD. MicroStrategy had debt of $2.18B at the end of September 2023. It has $45m in cash leading to a net debt of about $2.14b. MicroStrategy has a current unrealized Bitcoin profit of +43%.
Which coincidently, if they were able to liquidate all of their Bitcoin holdings immediately without tanking the market, would result in MicroStrategy being virtually debt free. However, MicroStrategy Bitcoin HODL strategy has resulted in unrealized losses for 90% of the time. Over the last twelve months MicroStrategy produced an earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) loss. Another cause for caution is $580m in negative free cash flow over the last twelve months.
Conclusion. MicroStrategy should not be up more than Bitcoin.
Buy MicroStrategy Stock With BTC, Blockstream CEO Adam Back SaysBlockstream CEO, Adam Back revealed that based on the current performance of MicroStrategy and Bitcoin, buying seem a good idea.
Blockstream co-founder and CEO Adam Back has reiterated the fact that many experts are beginning to take cognizance of MicroStrategy Inc.’s constantly increasing Bitcoin per share.
Based on this, he advised that investors to buy MicroStrategy stock with Bitcoin.
MicroStrategy is Winning
Back’s X post came as a reaction to an earlier insight from Ecoinometrics which pointed out that the business intelligence and software firm is winning as it relates to a chart showing MSTR’s stock price performance concerning the current performance of flagship cryptocurrency Bitcoin.
The attention that MicroStrategy is getting presently does not come as a surprise especially as the firm has been raking in more Bitcoin in line with its Treasury Reserve Allocation policy. A few days ago, the Bitcoin-friendly firm purchased of 16,130 BTC at approximately $593.3 million. Each unit of the new Bitcoin acquisition had an average price of $36,785.
Markedly, the purchase brought the current Bitcoin holding of MicroStrategy to a total of 174,530 BTC, considering that the firm had earlier bought 155 units of Bitcoin for $5.3 million as announced in November. As of November 29, MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin portfolio holds as much as 174,530 units of BTC valued at approximately $5.28 billion at an average price of $30,252 per Bitcoin. With the current price of Bitcoin at $41,875.79, the firm is in a major profit on its stack.
MSTR vs Bitcoin Performance
Bitcoin has been on a positive momentum for the last few weeks, driven by some events including the evolving anticipation for spot Bitcoin ETF approval from the United States SEC and the Federal Reserve’s decision to suspend interest rate hikes.
The leading cryptocurrency is stealthily approaching $40,000 and inching towards a new high for 2023. With its price of $38,792.97, the coin is now up 11% for the month
With the volume of BTC that MicroStrategy owns, the current market situation places the firm in an impressive position with profit enough to cover the senior convertible notes debt it has accrued as some of its BTC assets were purchased with the credit.
In addition, MicroStrategy’s (NASDAQ: MSTR) is equally performing outstandingly well in the market. According to data from MarketWatch, the stock price is now valued at $529.98 with a 0.44% per its close on Friday. This improvement is another indication that Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin strategy is a good choice.
By a large margin, the coin’s stock has outperformed its peers since it adopted its Bitcoin strategy.
Technical Analysis
MSTR is trading near the top of its 52-week range and above its 200-day simple moving average.
Investors have been pushing the share price higher, and the stock still appears to have upward momentum. This is a positive sign for the stock's future value.
Shorting Bitcoin via MSTRIf one wants to hedge against the current ETF inspired rally in Bitcoin without selling their Bitcoin a good candidate to 'short' would be MSTR (Microstrategy). The stock is "hard to borrow" meaning it is difficult to short the shares but the options chain is relatively liquid enough to accomplish the bearish thesis.
Technically, both Bitcoin and MSTR are hitting major Weekly Resistances today at the same time. Bitcoin is hitting its COVID low > ATH 50% Retracement level at 36439 while MSTR its November 2021 > May 2022 trend 50% Retracement at 512.73.
Expressing the trade with Puts is not only perhaps the only way for most traders to do so but also advantageous with the current Implied volatility being "low" relative to the last year. This means that if the trade goes in favor of the position IV should rise and add to the profitability.
MICROSTRATEGY ; "I M BACK" ?Hello § Microstrategy benefits from the end of year BTC rally / In the U,S, the £ will soon be worth the value of paper with a record deficit of 8% this year,
MicroStrategy earningsMSTR Q2 June 2023 earnings are on Tuesday 8/1 at 4pm. Here's a 2 split view chart with MicroStrategy and Bitcoin levels. Technically speaking MSTR should trade in line with Bitcoin TTCATR VWMA20 levels, so I am posting this as a short because of the divergence.
Q2 June 2023 Consensus:
Revenue = 124 M
VWMA200 = 277
TTCATR VWMA20:
R3 = 499
R2 = 475
R1 = 451
VWMA20 = 424
S1 = 398
S2 = 373
S3 = 349
Options data:
8/4/23 expiry
Put Volume Total 3,218
Call Volume Total 3,881
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.83
Put Open Interest Total 8,365
Call Open Interest Total 6,958
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.20
8/11/23 expiry
Put Volume Total 1,781
Call Volume Total 618
Put/Call Volume Ratio 2.88
Put Open Interest Total 2,043
Call Open Interest Total 1,306
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.56
8/18/23 expiry
Put Volume Total 373
Call Volume Total 557
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.67
Put Open Interest Total 10,580
Call Open Interest Total 5,919
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.79
MSTR Evening Star Poses Whipsaw Risk"Evening stars" are not as reliable as they used to be. They occur after heavy speculation and a steep angle of ascent. A few days ahead of earnings, NASDAQ:MSTR could not break through the resistance above.
The Gap up was HFT driven. This stock has a lot of retail interest at the moment, with every eye on AI. But the selloff from last quarter's reporting season is creating resistance on the daily scales. It is a very pricey stock for this market condition and the emotional state of most investors.
MSTR is likely to gap on earnings news as there are leaks out that it is going to be a blockbuster earnings report.
Bullish on MSTRThe chart of the week is MSTR: MSTR did a perfect extension higher back on the last move up off the roadmap line, moved up into exhaustion then went right back down making another bounce off that line.
Today we are seeing a move up above the 61.8% level and if we can maintain a daily close above $415 that is a signal for an entry.
Stop would be below the last low around $300.
The conservative target is up at $520, and an aggressive target is up at $580.
Remember to move your stop up above the entry once we approach that prior high around the $460-475 area (sooner if you are more conservative) Good Luck!
MSTR holding more than 150,000Btc!MicroStrategy MSTR
If BTC SPOT ETF Approved!
This stock will benefit.
Because They holding more than 150,000Btc.
technical chart looking GOOD.
BreakOut and throwback weekly chart.
#MMRRSL
#BearFaceTrader
Microstrategy could benefit from the rise of BTCGood morning, Traders,
Today, we will analyse with @mauricepriolo the chart of MicroStrategy Incorporated (NASDAQ:MSTR), an American company that provides business intelligence, mobile software, and cloud-based services. Founded in 1989 by Michael J. Saylor, Sanju Bansal, and Thomas Spahr, the firm develops software to analyse internal and external data to make business decisions and develop mobile apps.
After the big crash in 2022, a rebound phase from the lows began in January 2023 that led the stock first to test the 200-period Exponential Moving Average and then to the bullish crossing of the 50 Average on the 200 Average, giving an early hint of a trend reversal.
Since the cross, quote prices have steadily exceeded the EMA-200, using it as support in several situations.
In the last few months, we have observed an important lateralisation between the EMA-50 and the EMA-200 (SHIMANO); after several attempts to break the EMA-50, there has finally been a close above the resistance level in the last few sessions. In addition, the ANTICROSS signal reported by the indicator highlights the failure of further declines and confirms the validity of the given support of the EMA-200.
The levels to monitor for further bullish momentum are:
- Last week's high (white line) at 362.00 could be an important trigger point for an upward acceleration
- The first target zone (green rectangle) at 440.00, congestion area before the annual highs at 475.09
- The second target zone (red rectangle) is in the 500.00 area, the resistance zone that rejected the price in March 2022
Analysing the Intraday Timeframes, we find an upward crossing of the Slow Averages on the 1H chart, confirming a change of trend in the short term; we can await the Breakout movement by helping with the EMA-10 or using the EMA-50 as support, an eventual close below the EMA-200 could invalidate the bullish scenario of MSTR.
Taking a look at the data provided by Tradingview, the stock is aiming to hit its targets of returning to positive Earnings Per Share (EPS), from -129 in 2022 to an expected 30 in 2023, with the first half of the year seeing revenues in line with early year forecasts. Also, from the news provided by Trading View (source router), the stock is linked to Bitcoin's performance and could benefit from consolidating the 30,000 level by the cryptocurrency. The earnings release scheduled for November 1 is expected to give volatility to the stock, which has beaten market expectations so far.
In collaboration with @mauricepriolo
Thanks for the support.
