Good range expansion. Good range expansion.
Will see if this has followthrough upcoming days to get a feel for whether or not breakouts have followthrough.
M2ST34 trade ideas
Can MicroStrategy go Bankrupt?MicroStrategy's average cost per Bitcoin is around $30,639. MicroStrategy holds 130,000 Bitcoin. Can MicroStrategy go Bankrupt? I guess it all depends on the price of Bitcoin. In any event, here's a MSTR & BTC comparison 1-day chart with my tickerTracker MFI Oscillator set to fib21.
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*3x lucky 7s of trading*
7pt Trading compass:
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+5% portfolio trades, capital risk management
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MSTR about to implodeMSTR looks to be on the brink, showing another perspective on Bitcoin that also looks ready to plummet. Expecting a WIPE-OUT in the end, back down to $130 range. This could be a GREAT buy down the road, but not for a quite a while.
MSTR will be bankrupt should BTC fall down to $5.5k. Target $3.MSTR shareholder equity other than BTC is about $400mm.
They own $3.7B worth of BTC as of today which would be worth $580mm at $5.5k per BTC.
Total equity at $5.5k per BTC: $1B.
Total debt they raised to buy BTC: $2.2B.
Once BTC crashes down to $5.5k their equity will be -$1.2B, should they sell "intelligence" part of the business for $1B equity still would be negative.
On a side note we have a perfect abc correction upward with a bearish divergence which implies crash down to about $3 per MSTR stock.
Head and shoulders on Microstrategy (MSTR)The chart shows a high probability of a significant drop of value - complete failure? - of Microstrategy.
Fortunately, a similar head and shoulders is not visible on the underlying asset held by MSTR, #bitcoin. That said, MSTR does hold a leveraged position in #bitcoin, so the possibility of default is real. It's just not as real as indicated by this chart. I suspect this is a rare case ( ~ 20% chance) that the H&S pattern fails; hence, I am neutral on this asset.
Not a good look. Prob. a good time to buy the fear.
MicroStrategy Graph and Fundamental Analysis (MSTR)1. Graphic Analysis
Since March 2020, the company has been showing a strong correlation with Bitcoin (as shown at the bottom).
The price is "respecting" the white diagonal line in a big triangle 3 times.
It remains to be seen whether this line will be restored or whether it will now take off for good.
Perhaps the fundamentalist analysis below indicates a subtle change in operating results, to the point of enacting the bottom of this cycle.
2. Fundamental Analysis
The result was announced on November 1st.
2.1. Income Statement
2.1.1. Revenues
Sales increased by 2.69%, going from $122M to $125M.
2.1.2. Expenses
Operating expenses have been flat since inception, ranging quarterly from $111 million to $122 million.
2.1.3. Net Income
Net Income shows how much money a company earns after expenses.
Since the year 2020, net income has had a negative performance.
Despite sales increasing by 2.69%, this has not changed.
The positive point is that in relation to the previous quarter, the negative profit deteriorated, going from -$ 1.06 Billion to -$ 27.08 M
2.1.4. Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Earnings per Share is the amount of earnings per share of issued, ordinary shares.
Analyzing since the 1st quarter of 2021, this indicator has remained negative, signaling that those who bought the company's shares suffered a loss, in line with Net Income .
------------------------------------------------------------
2.2. Balance Sheet
2.2.1. Asset x Liability
2.2.2. Total Assets
The total value of assets decreased by 2.13%, due to a reduction in current and non-current assets.
2.2.3. Total Debt
Debts remain stable, in the range of $2.24 billion to $2.45 billion.
2.2.4. Net Debt
Net Debt represents the amount of debt that would remain after a company had paid off as much debt as possible with its liquid assets.
This value also remains stable.
2.2.5. Net worth
It is what's left after subtracting total liabilities from total assets.
Equity was positive until the first quarter of 2022.
But in the last two quarters it was negative by -$200 million.
------------------------------------------------------------
2.3. Cash flow
2.3.1. Cash From Operating Activities
Cash From Operating Activities represents the amount of cash that a company gets from its ongoing, regular business activities, such as the production and sale of goods or the provision of services to its customers.
Considering the period since 2021, Q2 2022 (the previous one) was the one in which there was a negative flow of -$18.37M.
In the current quarter, positively, this negative flow has stopped, standing at $1.10 M.
But still far from the last positive value of the first quarter of 2022 which was $ 46 M.
2.3.2. Cash From Investing Activities
Cash From Investing Activities represents the amount of cash that a company brings in from its investing activities.
It includes any cash inflows or outflows from the company's long-term investments.
A negative value of Cash From Investing Activities can show poor performance, but it can also be a sign of increased investment activities.
Spending on investments has been declining.
From a peak of -$1B in Q1 2021, in the current quarter of 2022(3) the amount spent was -$6M.
This signals a trend towards the end of investment activities.
It may be due to the higher cost of money, and/or the lack of need for such an investment.
2.3.3. Cash From Financing Activities
Cash From Financing Activities is the amount of cash that a company receives or pays to finance its activities.
That is, the company invests this money in itself, specifically in the development of its business.
A positive value may indicate an organization's intentions regarding expansion and growth.
A negative value may be a sign of improvement in the company's liquidity if debts are paid off.
A negative value can also provide information on the dividend policy of the organization.
In the same way as investment activities, the value follows a downward trend, that is, the company continues to prioritize the consolidation of its activities, or prioritizing the settlement of its debts.
2.3.4. Free Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow (FCF) represents the cash that a company generates as a result of its activities, excluding expenses on assets.
Free Cash Flow is sometimes considered the hardest financial metric to fake because of its calculation and for that reason, it's a popular financial metric in the investor community.
The current value remains positive at $769k, but far from the peak of $64M in Q1 2021.
Last quarter the balance was negative at -$19M, so we could at least consider this reversal as something positive.
2.3.5. Price to cash flow Ratio
It measures how much cash a company generates relative to its share price.
Formula:
Market Value/Cash Flow from main activities
The indicator remains positive and peaked at 69.46 in this current quarter.
MSTR: You're Not Surprised Are You?$MSTR Price action tells the story with no room for bias or subjectivity. And yes, the levels on the chart have been there for weeks; no real mystery. The #FTX debacle was merely the catalyst.
The fact that prices went from the upper RED level at ~287 and cut right through the lower RED level at 186 tells you a lot. There is likely a lot more damage to come.
From Microstrategy to MacrotragedyFTX going bankrupt is good for bitcoin bro. My counterparty was involved with FTX too. Bullish! WAGMI.
i think we see 1261. i like this compression after the sell off
2. below weekly
3. want to see some trappage then i'll go short ...i think we see 126
catch some crypto collapse1. inside day (currently)
2. below weekly
i want to see some trappage before i participate
MicroStrategy Target $ 110-125MicroStrategy is under immense stress with declining Bitcoin price.
At BTC $13,961, MSTR firm equity is zero!
MSTR: Bottoming action to prepare swing tradesMSTR would benefit from a stock split. It is pricey for today's market conditions. It is showing improvement in its trend. The resistance above the high range is short-term and moderate. This would more likely be a swing style trade based on the runs and trend. There was a Dark Pool buy zone over the formation of the bottom. This can be a precursor for upside momentum. Because of the current price range, it has room to run with momentum, however Risk Analysis is a factor.
MSTR - Weak Reporting.Q3 EPS of -$0.96 may not be comparable to consensus of $1.02.
Revenue of $126.36M (-1.3% Y/Y) beats by $0.56M.
The CEO of MicroStrategy again said that the company is not selling and does not plan to sell BTC, it plans to buy BTC in the future:
“We have not sold any Bitcoin to date. To reiterate our strategy, we seek to acquire and hold Bitcoin for the long term. And we do not currently plan to engage in sales of Bitcoin. We have a long-term time horizon and the core business is not impacted by the near-term Bitcoin price fluctuations.”
A spill is expected at least to the lower edge of the rand. Maybe, on the background of this event we will see Bitcoin at 15000.
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MicroStrategy MSTR #MSTR $MSTR Let's take a look at one of my favorite ways to trade bitcoin, especially one of my favorite ways to trade Bitcoin on leverage by using 1x margin somewhere as simple as robin hood.
Bitcoin and MSTR are so heavily correlated these days that its rather straight forward of a play to trade MSTR as if it's your Bitcoin vessel.
MSTR. is also in a great range to buy IMO. Especially if looking forward more than just the next few days/weeks.
Its Highly likely you see MSTR run up into the $800-$1200 ranges over the next 12-36 months based on how and when BTC takes off.
Buy around 209 - big upsideMSTR commandeered by a Saylor is about to complete its accumulation around 209 before beginning markup with a leading diagonal or impulse - this will serve the purpose of clearing the downtrend resistance. A breakout will take it to 1000, precise targets are below:
Buy zone = 198-216 (point buy level = 209)
Activate Markup @ 286
Initial Target 309 by mid-Novemeber 2022
Intermediate target 630
Goal Target 1016 by mid-May 2023
Good company, etc.
$MSTR: From leader of men to outcastMichael Saylor used to be revered by Bitcoin fanatics, since he was mega bullish their favorite asset class and loud as hell. The ultimate degenerate gambler in the space. His other people's money gambling habits are nothing new, as he battled with fraud allegations back in the hey day of the Dot Com bubble. Now he's making yet another fund raising round to buy yet more Bitcoin, this time not using debt, but rather issuing new shares. There's a very clear technical trend signal that formed here and indicates a rally has started and can extend until either the $551.38 target is reached or the October 28th deadline is met.
Another thing to keep in mind is that the monthly down trend signal in the stock expires during October, which could be a sign of a general recovery in crypto for the next 10 months as well:
There's an interesting resistance level higher, see the red line on chart, it indicates the price zone where Elon Musk bought Bitcoin back in Jan 2nd 2021. The SEC filing announcing it publicly didn't come out until February 8th, and that was the very top in $MSTR, who was the loudest proponent of putting Bitcoin in companies' balance sheet as an inflation/doomsday hedge. I'm not in the stock, and option premium is historically astronomical so the smartest way to play it is to buy or sell stock in general. The weekly trend signal activated on Friday when price moved over $258.97. Entries at that price or lower would be good, invalidation for the signal would be on a drop under $219.39. I have a hard time going long here, same as everyone I talk to regularly about markets, but it seems like the right thing to do. I'm personally long Bitcoin and Ethereum, as well as $COIN, but not in $MSTR yet. I'd trade this one small to be safe, since it's a far riskier play than the other 3 I mentioned. Perhaps a 1% long shot gamble would be adequate. 6.6%+- would risk 1% give or take. Risking 0.1-0.2% seems ok to me here. If this were to be a more long lasting bottom, upside would be significant and make it worth it. We can figure that out over time, as we get more cues from price and fundamental events.
Best of luck if you're entering this one, if it gaps up on Monday, then it's probably best to just let it go. Chances are you followed my Bitcoin publication and bot that near 21030, so that would be more than enough exposure really....Still interesting to track this chart and fundamental events as Saylor can have a significant impact on Bitcoin, considering the amount he holds. Risks floating over Bitcoin's head like a Damocles sword are mainly Saylor's bag needing to be liquidated in loss over time, and MtGox creditors being repaid. I'd keep an eye out for those events. Once out of the way, Bitcoin has far less risk and way bigger chances of achieving sustained, long term upside.
Best of luck!
Ivan Labrie.
MSTRHead & Shoulders pattern here, inside the ending diagonal. The target is around $125 for a truncated 5th. Also the right shoulder has rejected off the 618% perfectly. Timber!
Distribution signals flash at EU Open [$CRO, $MSTR, $BTC]EU Open today bring more sideways action for us all. +-1-2% moves over night, nothing much, all things considering. The market has clearly tightened it's range for the past 2 days, anyway. Volatility is still expected, as we remain sandwhiched between two massive gappers on either side of $MSTR current levels in the $210-235 $300-325.
$DXY continues to show strength, but given the double top, it's possible for a short-term reversal, if not a all out dump in September when the Jacksonhole rate hike announcements are made. Stay tuned!
My custom Accumulation / Distribution scripts are warning that the market is likely over heated (on the 15m scale), which aligns with the fact that BTC also rejected it's approach to the golen pocket formed from the most recent dump.
All this is to say, i'm still holding only my $CRO short position for the time being. Last night my take-profit limits only managed to cover 25% of my open position as I slept, when Asia brought us down into the .126 range before retracing back to current levels as EU opened.
With only 4% gains at the moment, it's nothing to write home about, but i'll be looking for good opporutnities to accumulate more shorts, as my overall thesis remains about the same as it was yesterday. Lots of resistence around the .13 levels for $CRO. And lots of resistence for BTC at 21450-21500 (golden pocket). Same like 282-285 for $MSTR.
Watch the $DXY! If it continues to rise quickly, expect asset prices to further collapse!
$MSTR / $BTC Price Divergence$MSTR / $BTC (and many alt's in the green still for the day) are clearly off track from their usual correlation in the past hour+ from US market open. $DXY's pullback should imply we'll see $BTC / $MSTR head higher, but right now, it's any one's guess. $BTCUSD is forming a prety nasty little M pattern on the 5m chart. New York is looking prehaps to bring the prices down and cash in on the bull's who were too ambitions getting in on this morning's positive opening momentum? I'm still holding my short position. My guess is we're simply hitting too much resistence still, and the accumulation trend continues...
$MSTR Level check MondayDaily range 265 - 283
End of month range 210 - 220
We've put another pre-market gapper into the books in today's opening session on US markets for Monday, opening -5% below friday's dismal close. WIthin the first 1h candle we've recovered most of the gap, and current 1h candle volume is higher than average, so demand is strong for the moment at these levels.
The most recent gap between 300 and 325 is sticking out like a sore thumb. It's a highly contested area since the start of the month, where trading ranged from Aug 1-10. Everyone who went long in that zone, and everything above it once the market managed to flip it into support are now completely trapped.
The gaps of mid to late July are calling from around 210 to 230, which lines up with the distribution fann I see in the chart, leading us down to exactly 210-230 range by the end of the month. This, unfortunately for the HODL'ers among us, is shaping up to be the most likely scenario....
Where are you at with $MSTR?
