fake breakout , bullish signs for NIKEHello guys,
Nike suddenly bróke down under the major horizontal support of 131 but it was seemingly a fake breakout and jumped back. Furthermore it´s forming a bullish flag on smaller timeframe. Additional to that in terms of the fundamental view, the pandemic will be eliminated and the economy is going to recover, that signifies that Nike will benefit much more from the reopening.
NIKE34 trade ideas
Nike opinionGood time of day, my followers and readers.
Today I wanna talk about Nike as interesting stock.
So, good news are:
1) Nike all this years had good financial results, have big competetive advantage. Revenues growth without big growth of administrative costs
2) Even with last 2020 year and COVID-19 pandemic, company shows good results
3) Overall financial safety, even with big debts
4) Company management allowed short-term investing to stabilise company from COVID-19 aftermath.Inventories become smaller.
Bad news at now are:
1) China's boycot. If conflict escalation will continue, Nike and many other companies can lost one of the biggest markets in the world. (but at the same time just need to wait and watch)
2) Now Nike's value is overvalued, and earlier or later will go back, but all of that will depend from markets value opinion. And for next 2 month will published new 10-Q statement. So, it will be higher volatility. And interesting, that in the end of december of 2020 insiders sold very big ammount of stocks - more then 1 million. And all insider sellings were big enough.
So at my opinion we can wait for growth of prices in waiting new 10-Q report, but at the same time be careful with speculating and investing in this company. From one hand, we can expect growth before publishing of new statement, from other hand - we can expect, that company will fall down and back to the fair value area (now it is nearly from 98 to 103 $)
That is just autor opinion, no recomends. All investing involve risk of loosing part or all invested resources, past success doesn't guarantee future success.
Are markets truly a random walk?You might have seen in the news that Nike has dropped by as much as -4% after they, along with H&M, came under fire following accusations of forced Labour in Xinjiang resulting in a brand boycott in China.
This got me thinking about something i read somewhere. Is the stock market truly a 'Random walk' or is there some level of legitimate predictability?
A truly random walk would mean that it is not possible to predict the direction of a stock, and may only present the illusion of predictability through chanced success. However, as we can see here technical analysis presents the formation of rectangle top. This would imply that investors anticipated some sort of impulsive move in the near future. If i recall correctly from some reading i was recommended break out can occur in either direction although tend to signal continuation in bull markets with an 11% fail rate.
I wonder, was the brand boycott simply an unforeseen chance event the market responded to, thus making the market a random walk (no one could have foreseen this event without insider trading)? Or could the market have predicted the boycott/news event in some way (as could be argued based on this technical analysis pattern)? Can one really predict the direction of a stock at all?
Idk just got me thinking
$NKE with a Neutral outlook following its earnings #Stocks The PEAD projected a Neutral outlook for $NKE after a Negative Under reaction following its earnings release placing the stock in drift D
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Bad news for Nike, but analyst sentiment remains bullishNike reporting an 11% decline in North American sales in FQ3; however, it is currently in a rectangle that should protect against excessive falls.
There are many supply problems, but the analysts continue to see it as bullish.
Resistance should lock the price as the price is still far enough away. It should touch that strong resistance in an oversold condition.
www.cnbc.com
NIKE Stock 16/03/21 Analysis 4H ChartNYSE:NKE
- Trend Analysis -
📑Value: 0/20
📈Growth: 18/20
💰Profitability: 20/20
🚀Momentum: 8/20
💸Earnings: 16/20
🖇️Total Score: 62/100
Analysis:
Low: $41
Average: $72.83
High: $105
Current: $72.96
Data:
Volume 3.74M
Average Volume (3 months) 5.71M
Previous Close $144.94
Open $145.88
Shares Outstanding 1.27B
Technicals:
(Simple Moving Average)
10D SMA $137.13 (+5.55%)
50D SMA $139.63 (+3.67)
200D SMA $122.39 (+18.27%)
Market Cap $221.42B
Total Debt $12.80B
Cash $11.81B
Enterprise Value $222.41B
Dividend Yield 0.76%
Annual Payout $1.10
Payout Ratio 36.88%
Years of Growth 19 Years
Latest Announced Dividend $0.28
Ex-Dividend Date 26/02/2021
Payout Date 01/04/2021
Revenue $38.25B
Gross Profit $16.44B
Net Income $2.83B
EPS Diluted $1.77
Free Cash Flow / Share $2.32
Nike Is Trying to Break Out Before EarningsNike has taken a long pause, but now the sneaker giant may be trying to break out with earnings due Thursday afternoon.
NKE beat estimates on December 21, eliciting a wave of bullish analyst notes. However the stock rallied before the report, and proceeded to ease lower for the next 2-1/2 months.
The result has been a price channel with a slight downward slope. Given its big run off last year's, that’s starting to resemble a long bullish flag. (Notice the similar pattern between September and November – also following a strong quarterly report.)
Interesting things happened on March 5. NKE briefly undercut its January low and tested levels previously seen in mid-November. The shares came surging back to end the session in the green, resulting in a false breakdown and bullish hammer. They kept running from that point and yesterday managed to close above the top of the descending channel.
Given NKE’s exposure to the economic reopening and strong results lately, traders may expect more good news this week. Related names like Foot Locker, Under Armour and Skechers USA have also been hitting new highs.
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Day Trade $133 strike price I see NKE hitting $133 no later than Friday, however... Technical analysis shows we are due for an imminent dip and it will be a hard dip, here's why.
Strong sell signals indicated by guth 3x triple confirm, which has pretty decent accuracy
D+ showing a red cloud above the candles indicating strong bearish divergence
Resistance has just been met as indicated by the Kurutoga cloud ( teal cloud beneath the candles )
MACD shows weakening bullish divergence
RSI is also pretty high compared to its previous low
My plan is to buy at open, let fall a few dollars and sell for a quick 50% profit.
Comment your thoughts below
Put Put2021 account is growing! Mega portfolio includes some options trading to generate some cash to invest in common stock and I see a perfect opportunity here with NKE. Based on Mondays performance we can see that bullish strength is weakening based on the MACD.
RSI also shows room for decline to 50 or lower, while there is a sell signal on 3x confirm. D+ shows growing bearish divergence so strong that I believe it will break below the support level of $136.26 as indicated by the Kurotoga Cloud. I am giving 4 days for NKE to hit $125 a share.
Like if you agree or like the analysis overall, and comment your thoughts below.
LONG POSITION ON NIKE - 7% RETURN POTENTIALNIKE INC is showing a nice support area at $135 holding the price as expected.
A LONG POSITION is possible with a potential of a +7% RETURN at $146
Holding the position longer can bring higher RETURN
Entry 2 is possible at $129 if entry 1 fails.
Happy trading