6/28/24 - $nke/$spy - these charts r important 2 learnon this friday i want to explain what i mean by NYSE:NKE on it's AMEX:SPY pair (we refer to things a lot in "crypto" vs. it's CRYPTOCAP:BTC pair - to be clear i don't chit coin much, i'm essentially maxi, but we come back to that in time k?)
in stonks, i think we can borrow something interesting from the "crypto" industry, which is looking at things on their high quality pairs. this eliminates the issue of time bias. e.g. do you measure YTD vs. another asset. do you pick the "covid" lows? when you divide things by other things, you eliminate this bias and see things more clearly. also allows you to spot outperformance better esp on small time frames.
the reason i show this chart is to zoom ALL THE WAY OUT. these are some long time horizon bars. i use fib to show some possible support zones.
- we have cv dip gaps that might get filled
- we have fib levels to think about
all in - 20-25% lower on an S&P that could do -10-15% is probably the max drawdown you're looking at here. not ideal. this is why i'd not recommend actually backing up the dip here. we need to be smart about trading $nke. however, this is by no means a dead company/ brand (actually quite the opposite). it's just the environment. hard to buck the trends when u r industry leader. easy when u have niche brand.
so what i'm suggesting is anything in the $60/shr is probably great value, if we get there. and i'd be backing up the semi if we go to low $60s, which i think is a 30% probability. but just set those alarms in trading view and go about your daily life until they get triggered if u don't need to own this.
practice doing $yourticker/ AMEX:SPY and $yourticker/ NASDAQ:QQQ and $yourticker/ BINANCE:BTCUSDT on every asset. it will help you understand how the market is thinking about everything as far as opportunity cost goes.
V
