NVIDIA short then longI still think NVIDIA has about 10% downside to go, then enjoy a nice long ride up. Hope the chart makes sense. Have a great day!!
NVDC34 trade ideas
Will $NVDA see a 30% correction in April 2025?As of March 27, 2025, NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is trading at $111.43.
NVDA's 50-day moving average has recently crossed below its 200-day moving average, forming a "death cross," a technical pattern that can indicate a potential downtrend. The last time this occurred was back in April of 2022. During this time we saw a 55% correction that lasted over 270 days plus.
Key support levels to monitor are approximately $105 for more of dynamic support $103 , aligning with the March low, and around $91, corresponding to previous peaks from last year.
On the upside, resistance may be encountered near $130, close to a descending trendline and moving averages, with a more significant resistance around $150, near prior peaks. Overall, we have a Double Top pattern in motion
Market Sentiment and Considerations:
Recent declines in NVDA's stock price are influenced by factors such as stricter energy regulations in China, which may impact sales of Nvidia's H20 chip. Additionally, geopolitical concerns, including new AI export restrictions set to take effect in mid-May, have contributed to investor caution.
Long-Term Investment Perspective:
Despite current market volatility, some analysts view NVDA's stock as attractively valued, trading at approximately 20 times estimated earnings, below its median forward level. For long-term investors, current price levels near key support zones may present potential buying opportunities. However, it's essential to consider the broader market environment, company fundamentals, and personal investment objectives.
While technical indicators suggest caution in the short term, NVDA's position in the AI and semiconductor sectors may offer long-term growth potential. Investors should monitor key support and resistance levels and stay informed about geopolitical developments affecting the company.
Nvidia Price target $90 by July 2025Nvidia Price target $90 by July 2025.
If a recession hits, Nvidia could fall to $90. GET READY
NVDA Bear may not be done chewing it up...NVDA looks like it's resuming it's downtown after a temporary recover. I'm watching to see if we get close to $100 again. If so, the door could open for $90 or even $85.
The rising wedge could still be in play here.
Good Luck & Trade Safe.
NVDA bulls hold the line!another bounce near cluster support, now watching for a break of 115.11 pivot level we should move to 124 if that breaks 🎯 144 / new ATH should come when the downtrend finally comes 🎯
boost and follow for more 🔥
NVDA Silicon Slippage: The Bearish Case for NVDA in 5 ContractsNVDA Bearish Options Thesis — “AI’s Reality Check”
A $500 Bet Against Hype, Headwinds, and a Tired Rally
Underlying: NVIDIA (NVDA)
Current Price: $109.67
Strategy: Buy 5x $90 PUTs expiring May 2, 2025 @ $1.00
Total Cost (Risk): $500
Breakeven: $89.00
Max Value at Expiry: $45,000 (if NVDA → $0)
Target Zone: $85–$95
Risk/Reward Profile: Asymmetric 1:9+
🧠 Thesis Summary: Why NVDA Could Drop
NVIDIA, the undisputed champion of the AI GPU race, now finds itself under increasing pressure from macro forces, competition, and sentiment. This trade capitalizes on a short-term reversal thesis into earnings season and macro repricing.
🚨 Key Catalysts for Downside:
🧬 1. AI Hype Fatigue
The market is cooling on generative AI names after 12+ months of hype.
Investor sentiment is shifting toward monetization over narrative — which hits NVDA’s high-multiple story.
💥 2. DeepSeek & Chinese Competition
The emergence of DeepSeek (a competitive LLM) raises the risk of a hardware shift in the East.
China accelerating self-sufficiency in chips = reduced NVDA demand.
📉 3. Macro Headwinds & Tariffs
Renewed trade war tensions threaten advanced chip exports.
Tariffs and tighter regulations = real demand compression for NVDA’s top-line growth.
📊 4. Technical Breakdown Confirmed
Weekly close below Fib 0.382 ($109.44) — now resistance.
RSI at 41.44 — weak and trending down.
Below VWAP ($113.65), signaling momentum shift.
"NVIDIA isn't breaking down because it's bad — it's breaking down because the market is waking up."
💰 Trade Breakdown: 5x $90 PUTs @ $1.00 (May 2, 2025)
Metric Value
Contracts 5
Cost per Contract $100
Total Premium $500
Breakeven $89.00
Max Gain $45,000
Max Loss $500 (premium only)
📊 P&L Scenarios (5 Contracts)
NVDA Price Drop % Intrinsic Value Total Payout Net Profit ROI (%)
$100 -8.8% $0.00 $0 -$500 -100%
$95 -13.4% $0.00 $0 -$500 -100%
$90 -17.9% $0.00 $0 -$500 -100%
$85 -22.5% $5.00 $2,500 $2,000 400%
$82.70 -24.6% $7.30 $3,650 $3,150 630%
$80 -27.1% $10.00 $5,000 $4,500 900%
🧮 Technical Levels to Watch
Level Price Notes
VWAP $113.65 Rejected
0.382 Fib $109.44 Just breached
0.5 Fib $96.07 Strong support
0.618 Fib $82.70 Bearish target
RSI 41.44 Weak momentum
✅ Summary
Factor Insight
Total Spent $500 (5x $90 PUTs @ $1.00)
Breakeven $89.00
Risk Fully capped at $500
Potential Return Up to $4,500 (900%) if NVDA → $80
Catalyst Market re-rating AI, earnings unknowns, regulatory clouds
Trade Horizon 33 days — high velocity post-breakdown possible
NVDA watch $123: Golden Covid + Golden local fibs key resistanceNVDA launched from our Golden Genesis zone at $113.
Now testing major resistance with Golden Covid at $122.
Looking for dips to buy or Break-n-Retest to confirm bottom.
Previous Analysis:
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NVIDIA Under Pressure: Bearish Storm IntensifiesFundamental and Technical Signals Suggest Potential for Deeper Corrections
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is under significant pressure, mirroring the broader bearish sentiment gripping global equity markets. The semiconductor giant's shares have suffered a substantial 23% decline from their January peak at $153.13, illustrating vulnerability amid macroeconomic uncertainties and sector-specific headwinds.
Fundamental Drivers Fueling NVDA's Decline
Despite NVIDIA's long-term growth narrative fueled by its dominance in artificial intelligence (AI) chips, graphics processing units (GPUs), and data centre technologies, short-term headwinds are challenging the bullish sentiment. Rising interest rates, persistent inflationary pressures, and geopolitical tensions have undermined investor confidence, triggering broader risk aversion in technology stocks.
Furthermore, weakening consumer electronics demand has adversely impacted GPU sales, affecting revenue projections in the gaming and consumer sectors. Heightened competition, particularly from AMD and Intel, coupled with regulatory scrutiny over NVIDIA's proposed mergers and acquisitions, has also raised investor anxiety. This combination of slowing revenue growth and market uncertainty significantly constrains upward momentum.
Technical Breakdown Signals Further Weakness
From a technical standpoint, NVIDIA's share price remains firmly entrenched in bearish territory, encountering strong resistance at the critical 124-131 zone on the weekly timeframe. The failure to reclaim this crucial zone underscores the dominance of bearish momentum, signalling potential further downside risks.
After the decisive breakdown from the symmetric triangle pattern around the $142 mark in mid-February, sellers gained the upper hand. Since then, price movements have consistently formed lower highs, reinforcing the bearish outlook. The significance of the 124-131 zone, formerly strong support turned resistance, cannot be overstated—only a clear and sustained breach above this area would shift sentiment back toward recovery.
Crucial Support Levels Under Threat
Currently, NVIDIA is precariously supported by the 113-106 zone. Technical indicators highlight the vulnerability of this area, making it a pivotal threshold for short-term price action. Failure to maintain support here could catalyze another wave of selling pressure, accelerating the descent toward the next key support zone between $95 and $89.
Investors must closely monitor these price dynamics. A breakdown through this level would intensify bearish momentum, potentially opening the doors for an even deeper pullback. Such an outcome would align with broader market conditions that remain unfavourable for growth stocks.
Ultimate Downside Targets
Should bearish momentum continue unabated and broader market conditions deteriorate further, the long-term technical landscape suggests that NVIDIA could test even lower levels. In the event of a prolonged bearish scenario, the ultimate downside target lies within the 78-60 price range. Such a scenario would represent a substantial correction and likely reflect broader market turmoil extending beyond the semiconductor sector.
Strategic Investor Considerations
Investors should remain vigilant given the precarious technical structure and challenging fundamental backdrop. Protective measures such as stop-loss orders, portfolio hedging strategies, and position sizing adjustments may be prudent at this juncture. Staying informed on upcoming earnings reports, macroeconomic developments, and shifts in Federal Reserve policy will be crucial to managing risk effectively.
Conclusion
NVIDIA's stock price is navigating treacherous waters, influenced by macroeconomic uncertainties and bearish technical signals. Downside risks will remain significant until a decisive break above the 124-131 resistance is achieved. Investors must remain prepared for the possibility of deeper corrections, especially if broader market sentiment deteriorates further. Vigilance and strategic risk management will be essential as we approach critical support tests in the weeks ahead.
NVDA waiting game I firmly believe in waiting for a greater concrete price movement for NVDA, Still in an overall bearish trend but a plausible early re test of the resistance is possible. Waiting for that break through is imperative.
$NVDA and NVDA Dominance Fib retracement levelsNASDAQ:NVDA is now already in bear market territory and the next question when this slide in the stock price will stop. Today in our Daily dose of Chart we are looking into NVDA Feb retracement levels in the upward sloping channels and the NVDA Dominance in NASDAQ.
If we plot the upward sloping Fib retracement channel joining the top candles weekly chart within the upward sloping channel and then plot the Fib levels to the lowest levels of 2023 and 2024 then we see that the current price is at the 3.618 Fib level which is at 104 $. The next level is 4.236 and that level lies at approx. 95 USD. So if the sell of continues then the next price target is 95 USD.
In this blog space we have floated the idea of NVDA Dominance ($NVDA.D) which is just the ratio of NASDAQ:NVDA vs NASDAQ QQQ. The dark green line in the chart signifies the NVDA Dominance and it is currently well of its highs. If we simply plot the Fib retracement on the Dominance Line, then we see the next support is @618 which will give us a price of 99 $ on the NASDAQ:NVDA stock. So that means technical speaking we have great support and price memory between 95 $ - 99 $.
Verdict : Accumulate NASDAQ:NVDA here and go extra-long @ 95-99 $
NVDA support idea $108.90I do dowsing with a pendulum to get answers on what to expect in the market and stocks. I checked on NVDA today, and along with indexes soon (tomorrow) making a somewhat lasting (or longer term) low, I have a level for at least a bounce.
Tomorrow could be a big down day for stocks and indexes as I have timing for a low, but we have yet to reach targets. The $108 area has come before in NVDA, so I feel it really should be a spot to watch. The more refined level is $108.90, so it will be fun to see what happens here; and of course, I could be completely wrong & it does something else!
NVDA 2 The????NASDAQ:NVDA
Outlook - -GEX and -DEX but +OI This week. NASDAQ:NVDA ’s price action will likely hinge on broader
market sentiment rather than company-specific releases, given no major NVIDIA events are slated.
Weekly -- 2nd consecutive down week with increasing volume
Daily -- Downtrend to next HVL under 106 possible
Hourly -- Consolidating at support zone
10m -- Consolidating
Bias -Monitoring U.S. trade policy updates and technical levels for short-term direction.
Volatility remains high, so caution is warranted.
Pivot - 109.65
Upside Targets:
* 111.47--112.91--113.66--115.01
Downside Targets:
* 109.62--108.45--105.05--104.34
NVDA - I'm not interested hereI was not interested when it dropped below the summer 2024 high. I'm also not interested now. I'd rather see a clear reclaim of that summer 2024 level. For now, European and Chinese stocks bring much needed gains where American stocks struggle. So I'd rather not put my money on the line here.
NVDA Breakdown Confirmed! Will 110 Hold or Will Bears Target 105🔻 Technical Analysis (TA) – Intraday View
Current Price: ~$112.20
* NVDA suffered a Break of Structure (BOS) from the rising wedge pattern.
* Price broke below key CHoCH and consolidation areas, and is now hovering just above major PUT support near $110.
* Volume on breakdown was heavy — bearish pressure is strong, but we are approaching a potential reversal zone.
Indicators:
* MACD: Bearish, but histogram is slowing → early signs of bearish momentum loss.
* Stoch RSI: Oversold, starting to curl up → bounce attempt possible if support holds.
🔐 Key Levels to Watch
Support:
* 110 → Strong GEX PUT support & 2nd PUT Wall.
* 105 → 3rd PUT Wall + prior demand zone.
* 104.77 → Swing low — a break here opens the door to 100 psychological level.
Resistance:
* 115 → Highest negative NetGEX zone (put support flipped resistance).
* 119 → Previous HVL & key breakdown level.
* 125.09 → CALL wall & prior rejection area.
🧠 GEX & Options Flow Insights (TanukiTrade Pro)
* GEX Sentiment: 🔴🔵🔴 — Bearish bias overall
* IVR: 21.4 (low)
* IVx avg: 52.5 → Traders not aggressively pricing future volatility
* CALL$%: 11.1% — Weak call flow suggests downside hedging still dominant
* PUT Pressure Zones:
* 110 → High dealer support zone
* 105 → 2nd critical wall
* Gamma Resistance: 119 → strong reversal zone if a bounce occurs
📌 This setup shows potential for a short-term bounce, but overall bearish gamma structure still dominates.
🛠️ Trade Setups
📈 Bullish Setup – Reclaim 115 After Holding 110
* A bounce from 110 may attract dip buyers for short squeeze toward 119
* Entry: Above 113.50 with volume
* Target 1: 115
* Target 2: 118.50–119
* Stop-Loss: Below 110
* Options Play:
* Buy Apr 12 $115 Calls
* OR Call Debit Spread: Buy $112.5 / Sell $120
📉 Bearish Setup – Breakdown Below 110
* If 110 fails with momentum, flush to 105 becomes likely
* Entry: Break below 110 with confirmation
* Target 1: 105
* Target 2: 100 (psych level)
* Stop-Loss: Above 112.5
* Options Play:
* Buy Apr 12 $105 Puts
* Bear Put Spread: Buy $110 / Sell $105
🧭 Final Bias & Outlook
* Bias: Bearish unless 115 is reclaimed.
* Strong breakdown structure, bearish GEX sentiment, and low IVR suggest continued weakness unless we see buyer absorption at 110.
* If 110 breaks, expect increased put gamma pressure to drag toward 105 or lower.
📛 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always manage risk carefully and do your own due diligence.
Where to buy NVDA based on previous cyclesPresented without comment.
Interested to see how this pans out, but previous cycles have both been of similar length and had roughly 50-60% pullbacks, so IF we see a repeat of previous cycles here, then the ideal buy point would be roughly in October as shown.
130 seems like a clear path way target areaAt least to say that the 130 area is comfortably uncertain, but that's after it gets there. The reason is solidly a 100/200 cross and an exhausted oscillator, and as soon as the heikin is triggered, it could be the retest, but comfortable with this setup as we see it thus far.
$NVDA H&S on Monthly...Linking previous short of NVDA. The right shoulder is technically not finished forming. However that trendline was tested not long ago.... will it hold? Who knows.
First target would be ~$100. If this plays out there will likely be a larger mark down phase consisting of retail panic selling. This will push toward $80 with a possible shakeout near the low/mid $70s before a long term accumulation process begins by big money.
Just because I am short on the stock does not mean I don't believe in the company or stock longer term. Have money on the sidelines to buy incase this plays out.
March Madness NVDA Bump?Hey Traders,
Breaking this one down to the fundamentals and it's actually pretty simple.
Starting off with the news here. NVDA is investing $500B with a "B" into US manufacturing alongside Apple Inc. as a 4 year plan to increase production in the US. Big news.
Jensen Huang is notably one of my favorite CEO's with a level head and after the big sell off, I was hoping to get in around $95-97 on calls going long, but it didn't happen.
Instead, we saw the floor coming in at 105 and the next stop was the "sticky note zone" around 114-116. After the break above, we had a recent pullback at 123.50 and this pullback was my chance to enter.
We are headed into the last remaining days of March and as the title says, "March Madness" is upon us. SPY seems to have found support after a 10% correction at 550 and the overall market sentiment seems to be bullish.
The target is simple, 130. If we can break above and hold 120, I am very confident we will see 130 by the end of next week, 3/28.
Thanks for reading 🙏
NVDA - Melt up & Crash series [2]Has conducted first test if ichmoku cloud on weekly so will likely bounce (2nd time = break probability increases)
Successfully backtested a breakout line
Plenty of room to run on RSI
Measured move of bull channel aligns to fib 2.618
Not financial advice.
NVDA Long Term Bullish by V lineI’ll looking to buy shares around 110-105
First TP 128
Second TP 134
Third TP 141
Looking Plan to buy shares: 40-30-30 Or 50-30-20
NVDA at Critical Reversal Zone! Decisive Moves Ahead? Here's the latest detailed breakdown of NVDA on the 1-hour timeframe, emphasizing key reversal zones detected.
📈 Technical Analysis (TA):
* NVDA currently consolidating at around $121, showing signs of indecision at this upper reversal (green) zone, indicating potential profit-taking or reversal.
* Clear bullish structure with a recent Break of Structure (BOS) above $120, but momentum is fading slightly as shown by MACD trending lower.
* Critical bullish reversal support zone (red) detected clearly at $115-$116. A retest of this area could offer a potential entry for longs if buyers step in.
* If price loses momentum at the current resistance area ($121), watch for a retracement to test key support at the identified lower red reversal zone.
📊 GEX & Options Insights:
* Strongest gamma wall and highest positive NET GEX located significantly higher at $130. This remains a key upside target if bullish momentum resumes strongly.
* Immediate resistance at the 2nd call wall at $122 is currently acting as overhead pressure. Further bullish continuation requires a clear breakout above this level.
* Notable PUT support established at the $110 level, providing substantial downside protection if NVDA retraces sharply.
* IV Rank notably low at 11.2%, indicating low premium and relatively low volatility environment, favorable for strategic debit spread setups or long calls/puts based on directional bias.
💡 Trade Recommendations:
* Bullish Scenario: Consider long positions if NVDA holds above $120.50–$121 zone with a breakout confirmation targeting $124 initially, then $130.
* Bearish Scenario: Short-term put options could be favorable if rejection is confirmed at the current green reversal resistance around $121, targeting the red reversal support area around $116.
* Neutral Strategy: Potential for iron condor setups between clearly defined ranges ($115–$125), capitalizing on low IV environment.
🛑 Risk Management: Keep stops tight around recent highs or lows depending on directional bias. Watch volume and MACD closely for confirmation.
Trade carefully and stay alert!
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk before trading.
$NVIDIA ─ Wyckoff Distribution #4 aka Rising Wedge PatternVANTAGE:NVIDIA ─ Wyckoff Distribution #4 aka Rising Wedge Pattern
Although Rising wedge turning into more like Rising Channel distribution idea is still valid.
#2 Long Trade TP1 Hit so far 🔥
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Note: This is the most positive outcome possible.
As always, my play is:
✅ 50% out at TP1
✅ Move SL to entry
✅ Pre-set the rest of the position across remaining TPs
It's important to take profits along the way and not turn a winning trade into a losing trade.
nvda buy alert it bounced to a low or new high at every vertical line and it finally found support at the last blue vertical line
