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ORCL34 trade ideas

ORCL - Oracle stock dominated by mobile architecture JavascriptORCL Oracle (large cap.) offers a 1.59% dividend with current stock prices. Dividend has not been raised since end early 2017 and overdue. Top Oracle Software Exec. taking leave of absence per WSJ 9.7.18 Oracle 5G CUPS is new control and user plan software architecture partially introduced in 4G & to be fully integrated in 5G and help support cloud data integration & support SaaS. * Dividend $0.19/Q, or 0.78/yr, which at $47.81 is a 1.59% yield. * 5G will generate profits in late 2019 and slightly earlier for SaaS services * Key markets healthcare, transportation, blazing internet, smart cities, energy security, aka billions of devices coming on-line * In Aug. a pension fund started lawsuite with Oracle, accusing them of farbricating cloud sales and creating unstable sales model. In reviewing their chart, they are just like the spikes of major telecomm stocks associated with 1G-2G-PDA-3G-4G-4G LTE and soon 5G in 2019-2020. * The past year was anything but stable for ORCL, which is more like telecomm stocks than IT/Software stocks. * #needstodiversify This posting is for own reference. Come to own conclusions. Comments welcomed.
NYSE:ORCL
by Pokethebear
THE WEEK AHEAD: ORCL, KR EARNINGS: EWZ, TSLA, CRONEarnings: ORCL: Announces Thursday after market. Rank/IV: 74/31. Sept 21st 68% Probability of Profit 20 delta 45/50.5 short strangle: .79 credit. KR: Announces Thursday before market. Rank/IV: 54/37. Sept 21st 72% Probability of Profit 20 delta 30/35 short strangles: .60 credit. Non-Earnings: EWZ: Rank/IV: 97/48 TSLA: Rank/IV: 95/57 GDX: Rank/IV: 68/30 USO: Rank/IV: 62/26 FXE: Rank/IV: 53/8 Others of Note: CRON: Background IV at 138% on volume of 24.1 million shares. Oct 19th 70% Probability of Profit 9/19 short strangle: 1.30 credit. See also (for other cannabis-related underlyings): TLRY: Background IV at 135% on volume of 9.02 million shares. CGC: Background IV at 98.5% on volume of 13.1 million shares.
NYSE:ORCL
by NaughtyPines
COMPARISON/CONTRAST OF FOUR BULLISH TRADES IN ORCLORACLE The Plain Jane "Spack" (Short Put/Acquire/Cover) Trade Sell the June 15th 44 put Metrics: Probability of Profit: 75% Max Profit: $69/contract Max Loss: Undefined Break Even: $43.31 Delta: 26.48 Theta: 1.17 The Plain Jane Covered Call Buy Shares at 46.23/Sell the June 15th 48 call Metrics: Probability of Profit: 48% Max Profit: $174 Max Loss: $4626 Break Even: $46.26 Delta: 66.29 Theta: 1.21 The 90/30 Poor Man's* Buy the Sept 21st 37 long/Sell the June 15th 48 call Metrics: Probability of Profit: ~50% Max Profit: $177 Max Loss: $823 Break Even: $46.23 Delta: 52.50 Theta: .55 * -- The back month bid/ask is wide in the off hours, but I wouldn't want this filled for anything more than a break even at where spot is currently trading. The At The Money Net Credit Put Diagonal Buy the Sept 21st 42 long/sell the June 15th 45 short put Metrics: Probability of Profit: ~50% Max Profit: Undefined Max Loss: $383 Break Even: $45.83 Delta: 21.29 Theta: .54 Comments: One of my frequent primary considerations is how much I want to hang up on the trade in buying power and -- to a certain extent -- that is depending on what kind of environment I'm working in (cash secured versus margin). As you can see, the Plain Jane covered call is quite pricey to put on, and I would probably never choose that option out of the gate because I don't like to buy stock at market: I'd rather sell short puts and get assigned shares that are lower in price and then proceed to cover instead. Even the "Spack" trade may be pricey for some, depending on the environment in which you're trading; if cash secured, you're going to pay $4331 to put that trade on, although you could buy a cheap, throwaway long put to reduce that buying power effect substantially without giving up much (e.g., the 35 long, which costs .07 to put on at the mid, results in a "definition" of the risk to the width of the spread (9-wide) minus the credit received (.63) or $837 instead of the over $4k you'd be paying to "go naked"). On margin, doing that doesn't get you much in terms of freed up buying power, since you're likely to pay $860 on margin to put the naked on. Out of all the plays, the net credit diagonal is cheapest to put on, but max profit is unknown since it will depend on how much you get for rolling the short put. From a max profit standpoint, the Plain Jane covered call and Poor Man's are comparable in pure dollar and cents terms, but return on cap is much higher for the Poor Man's (21.5%) versus the Plain Jane covered call (3.8% cash secured; twice that if on margin). From that standpoint, the naked "Spack" trade is probably the worst if you go undefined in cash secured: a 1.5% return on cap risked, although if it's better if you play it on margin (8.0%) or go with the uber wide spread with the throwaway long, which -- weirdly enough -- almost no one ever does in spite of the fact that it (a) defines the risk; and (b) dramatically improves return on cap ... . Takeaways: (a) Never covered call out of the gate; short put/acquire/cover instead; (b) there is little to no advantage of going naked over "wide defined" in a cash secured account; buy a cheap throwaway, define your risk, and conserve your buying power over tying up the large notional associated with a full-on naked; (c) Poor Man's have better return on cap metrics than virtually every other play; (d) for uber cheap buying power tie-up in small accounts, go with flexible, at the money net credit diagonal and opt for cost basis reduction with rolls of the short aspect over time.
NYSE:ORCL
by NaughtyPines